Author Topic: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy  (Read 23603 times)

rkbabang

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4348
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #30 on: September 11, 2017, 11:15:52 AM »
Down another 9+% today.  I just purchased some more.  I don't understand the way this has been trading the last few weeks.


Cardboard

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3143
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2017, 12:03:01 PM »
Same here on both counts.

Cardboard

Paarslaars

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 121
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #32 on: September 11, 2017, 12:17:54 PM »
Doubled my small position but I've had nothing but wrong calls this year.  :P

rkbabang

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4348
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #33 on: September 18, 2017, 09:18:33 AM »
No new information, but a good summary of the current situation.

Small-Cap Oil & Gas Companies Positioned for a Market Rebound

Quote
TER: Can you update us on Pan Orient Energy Corp. (POE:TSX.V)?

BN: A few weeks ago, Pan Orient drilled a high impact exploration well on its East Jabung block (49% W.I.) in Indonesia. Recall that in 2015, Pan Orient farmed-out 51% of its 100% interest in East Jabung to a subsidiary of Talisman Energy Inc. (now a subsidiary of Repsol). In return, Pan Orient received an US$8 million cash payment and Repsol funded the first US$10 million of the cost of the AYU-1X exploration well. In late August the AYU-1X well was drilled to a total depth of 1,140 meters and encountered 5.5 meters of net oil pay within the Batu Raja formation, which was the primarily target. Although the net pay is thin, the reservoir was thicker than expected.

The AYU-1X well also encountered good oil shows in well-developed sands in the Gumai formation, which was the secondary target. AYU-1X well location was selected to target the Batu Raja and so it wasn’t an optimal location for the Gumai formation. A more optimal location for the Gumai formation is located to the north on what’s called the Anggun structure. We think it’s highly likely that the Anggun structure will get drilled next year, after the construction of a new drilling location. In the meantime, the joint venture partners are currently drilling the ELOK-1X sidetrack from the AYU-1X wellbore targeting Lower Talang Akar sandstone, which laps onto the AYU high. Drilling could be completed by the end of September and will qualify as the second commitment well, so it will complete the first phase exploration well commitments for the East Jabung block.

So, to sum up: the AUY-1X exploration well encountered thicker than expected reservoir in both the Batu Raja limestone and the Gumai sands and proved hydrocarbon charge into the Ayu/Elok/Anggun complex, which was the largest pre-drill risk. The ELOK-1X sidetrack well is a high-risk well but will fulfill the first phase drilling commitments on the East Jabung block and next year we expect Pan Orient will drill the Anggun prospect, which has been somewhat de-risked by the results of the AUY-1X well. If successful we see big upside for the stock price.

TER: Thank you for your time, Bill.

rkbabang

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4348
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2017, 06:33:31 AM »
Pan Orient Energy Corp.: ELOK-1X Drilling Update

"The East Jabung Production Sharing Contract (“PSC”) ELOK-1X exploration well has reached a total depth of 1,236 meters true vertical depth ("TVD") within weathered granitic basement at a sub-surface location approximately 700 meters southwest of the AYU-1X location.

The top of the primary Talang Akar formation sandstone objective (primary target) was encountered at 1,169 meters TVD and found to be non-hydrocarbon bearing. The Batu Raja limestone, not a target at ELOK-1X, was encountered approximately 26 meters structurally lower than at AYU-1X exhibiting high mud gas readings and oil stained carbonates in the upper portion.

Preliminary interpretation of the LWD logs confirms the findings of AYU-1X within the Gumai sandstone formation. Significant indications of hydrocarbons in the form of oil shows and high gas readings were observed while drilling well-developed sands of Gumai age at both wells.

Based on the results of the AYU-1X and ELOK-1X exploration wells, Pan Orient management is very encouraged regarding the hydrocarbon potential of the ANGGUN-1X location that is approximately 5.6 kilometers to the north west of AYU and 80 meters structurally up dip from AYU-1X t the Gumai sandstone target level. The timing of further drilling activities in the PSC will be one of the main topics of discussion at an upcoming partners' meeting scheduled for early November 2017."

Cardboard

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3143
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2017, 08:53:34 AM »
It is a 2nd confirmation that there are hydrocarbons in the play which is positive however, it is also the 2nd time that their estimate of what is underneat is way off: first time depth, now primary target or Talang Akar being non-hydrocarbon bearing.

As someone pointed on Stockhouse, they used this time the terms "very encouraged" instead of just "encouraging" in the last press release. Maybe just corporate bs but, who knows?

What Repsol will do and when seems to be the question? The Gumai formation seems to be the thing as confirmed now twice. Moreover, drilling of the Anggun location is key to determine the value of this play or as was speculated by some following the drilling results from the first well. However, this will require an access road and POE will need to spend its 49% share to get this well drilled depleting one of their assets or cash.

The market has already factored in the risks from that this morning and the value assigned to the play is near $0. Let's hope that the exploratory well in Thailand on their producing land being drilled in October will yield a positive result to raise the value of their other assets as protection against a complete write-off in Indonesia.   

Cardboard   

rkbabang

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4348
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #36 on: October 11, 2017, 10:13:39 AM »
It is a 2nd confirmation that there are hydrocarbons in the play which is positive however, it is also the 2nd time that their estimate of what is underneat is way off: first time depth, now primary target or Talang Akar being non-hydrocarbon bearing.

As someone pointed on Stockhouse, they used this time the terms "very encouraged" instead of just "encouraging" in the last press release. Maybe just corporate bs but, who knows?

What Repsol will do and when seems to be the question? The Gumai formation seems to be the thing as confirmed now twice. Moreover, drilling of the Anggun location is key to determine the value of this play or as was speculated by some following the drilling results from the first well. However, this will require an access road and POE will need to spend its 49% share to get this well drilled depleting one of their assets or cash.

The market has already factored in the risks from that this morning and the value assigned to the play is near $0. Let's hope that the exploratory well in Thailand on their producing land being drilled in October will yield a positive result to raise the value of their other assets as protection against a complete write-off in Indonesia.   

Cardboard   

Yeah, It looks like another 6-12 month wait, at least, before anything is known for sure in Indonesia.  I'm not sure I'd read much into the use of "very encouraged" vs. "encouraging".   That might not mean anything.

Sunrider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 537
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #37 on: October 11, 2017, 10:57:36 PM »
It is a 2nd confirmation that there are hydrocarbons in the play which is positive however, it is also the 2nd time that their estimate of what is underneat is way off: first time depth, now primary target or Talang Akar being non-hydrocarbon bearing.

As someone pointed on Stockhouse, they used this time the terms "very encouraged" instead of just "encouraging" in the last press release. Maybe just corporate bs but, who knows?

What Repsol will do and when seems to be the question? The Gumai formation seems to be the thing as confirmed now twice. Moreover, drilling of the Anggun location is key to determine the value of this play or as was speculated by some following the drilling results from the first well. However, this will require an access road and POE will need to spend its 49% share to get this well drilled depleting one of their assets or cash.

The market has already factored in the risks from that this morning and the value assigned to the play is near $0. Let's hope that the exploratory well in Thailand on their producing land being drilled in October will yield a positive result to raise the value of their other assets as protection against a complete write-off in Indonesia.   

Cardboard

I’m not a geologist, but given that oil and gas are created by compressing rotting plant matter, isn’t it quite likely that you find some trace of hydrocarbons when you sink a well in a tropical regions? I mean management will put whatever marketing blurb out they can get away with so of course they will be encouraged but this well seems to be ‘dry’ to me - number 2. So whilst there is oil there somewhere, how many more wells are they going to drill around the holes in the cheese until they finally hit that hole?

All a bit promotion for people to keep paying their salaries from investors’ money?
Dead money until end of next year (presuming Repsoal agrees to drill more over the next 12 months)?

Thank you fo your views

SharperDingaan

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3210
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2017, 07:16:02 AM »
The press releases are telling you that they found reasonably accessible oil trapped under a cap of non porous Lower Talang Akar Sandstone. The Bata Raja payzone is a wedge (over a 700m stretch it changes from 41m to 5.5m) sloping upwards, & geophysics will have given them some idea as to its width.

Carve a road, drill it, and connect to a collection facility will be expensive; the wells life will also be on the shorter end as the porosity favours extraction, accelerating depletion. There's a lot of payzone, but its essentially shut-in without collection access (Repsol?). POE would also be footing the development - against a CF stream that is both uncertain & which would not occur until quite some time in the future (crushing both PV, as well as possibly creating a negative NPV).

It would seem much likely that POE would simply get bought out by Repsol; probably at a good price for what's there now, but a lot lower than what it might have been were the well developed. Net, net it adds up to no real change; hence the poor POE stock performance.

SD



   

Cardboard

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3143
Re: POE.V - Pan Orient Energy
« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2017, 07:31:47 AM »
Lol!

The key is to watch Repsol's actions. The head of exploration has multiple exploration opportunities worldwide, a limited budget and his or her incentives is to find economical oil/gas for the company. That is what drives hir or her salary, promotions, etc. A big find in Indonesia (relatively speaking) would not even move the stock price.

So if they decide to drill a 3rd well in November that will tell you all you need to know about the success or failure of these first two wells.

Cardboard