Author Topic: PIF.TO - Polaris Infrastructure  (Read 1879 times)

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: PIF.TO - Polaris Infrastructure
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2018, 12:56:43 PM »
Personally, I have always lost when investing in, what looks like good companies at good valuations but in bad countries. 

I have lost because the laws in those countries have not supported the wrongs that the governments and/or insiders have inflicted on the companies I invested in.  The governments expropriated or insiders 'expropriated' the businesses away from rightful shareholders and the shareholders had virtually no recourse.  I believe if something occurred in this country, as a shareholder, you would get a very small % of your investment returned to you, but most likely you would get $0.  The downside just isn't worth the potential upside and there are a lot of other good businesses at reasonable valuations to invest in that are in countries where the legal system and shareholders have reasonable rights.  What would your upside in your share price at Polaris have to be, to justify a total loss?  How do you justify allocating a reasonable % of your capital in a country where expropriation without reasonable compensation is a possibility?  Just my 2 cents.

Iím curious FFHWatcher, what were the businesses that were expropriated from you?
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writser

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Re: PIF.TO - Polaris Infrastructure
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2018, 01:38:50 PM »
The situation in Nicaragua looks horrible but it wouldn't surprise me if the market is overreacting a bit. $100m disappeared into thin air in a few weeks. I'm being super simplistic but if you assume the price during the beginning of 2018 was 'fair' the market is implying that there's suddenly a 30% - 40% risk of the company getting nationalized? Did the political landscape really shift that quickly? Granted, less if you take into account the whole EV (but it was supposed to be undervalued to begin with).

Anyway, ignore my ramblings, just trying to make some sense of the numbers vs. the situation. Haven't spent too much time on this but looks like an interesting idea to follow.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 01:45:01 PM by writser »
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.