Author Topic: DB - Deutsche Bank AG  (Read 24985 times)

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2794
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #80 on: May 01, 2019, 03:52:55 AM »
DB is a GSIB, and will not be allowed to fail. http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P161118-1.pdf

Notable is that the ONLY GSIB more risky than DB, is JP Morgan. And in the present climate; most would expect that DB is now either on par with JP Morgan, or even more risky. Even Goldman Sachs is less risky than DB, and they actually know what they are doing!

SD

Deutsche Bank would not be allowed to fail, but I donít think the government would make much bones about nationalizing them either, They would go into a special vehicle or into the Abwicklungsgesellschaft. Banking with a government owned institution doesnít  the same stigma than in the US. Besides that, there are the Landesbanken (which are the master institutions of the Sparkassen) they have balance sheets around 200B Euro each. They can handle quite a bit of FX. the large companies like Daimler, BMW have their own treasury departments and even banks and donít really need DB or Commerzbank any more.


Personally I think DB leadership is doing the right thing deleveraging. I just donít see a way around the profitability issue. Iíd rather buy Barclays (which also trades at fraction of book -0.44x) , but operates in  a profitable home market and their investment banking is better than DBís. Of course they have Brexit too.... 0.44x book market is plenty cheap, imo.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.


schin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 152
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #81 on: May 01, 2019, 07:41:41 AM »
Personally I think DB leadership is doing the right thing deleveraging. I just donít see a way around the profitability issue. Iíd rather buy Barclays (which also trades at fraction of book -0.44x) , but operates in  a profitable home market and their investment banking is better than DBís. Of course they have Brexit too.... 0.44x book market is plenty cheap, imo.

Jes Staley is doing a great job.... Comes from JPM pedigree and actually poached a lot of JPM talent to staff Barclays.

Castanza

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 231
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #82 on: May 01, 2019, 09:26:19 AM »
Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

TwoCitiesCapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2148
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #83 on: May 01, 2019, 10:00:34 AM »
Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

SAN and Eurobank are reasonable positions for me. Sberbank is one of my largest holdings, but may not qualify as European.

Tiny position in DB.

schin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 152
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #84 on: May 02, 2019, 06:52:46 AM »
Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

I'm invested in DB and Commerzbank. Earlier this year, I was also invested in BCS, BNP, and EUFN. I was also in Sberbank, the largest bank in Russia, as a play on that economy.

As a sector, it's almost like shooting fish an a barrel... As you can get some best in class companies at below BV. It's really like the US financial crisis, where every bank were taken to the woodshed.... That was a great time to pick up the GS, WFC, and JPMs.... as they were blackmailed by the BAC and C of the world.

Also, money managers like State Street were great buy... so, right now, I don't think you can go wrong with playing the basket in EUFN. Or going top shelf with BNP, HSBC, UBS, etc.

schin

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 152
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #85 on: May 02, 2019, 06:54:13 AM »
Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

SAN and Eurobank are reasonable positions for me. Sberbank is one of my largest holdings, but may not qualify as European.

Tiny position in DB.

What is your thesis on Sberbank over others. The PE is amazing cheap, but I didn't know it's market cap was as big as it is... but, it is dominate in Russia.... but, it's trading close to book.

TwoCitiesCapital

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2148
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #86 on: May 02, 2019, 09:02:10 AM »
Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

SAN and Eurobank are reasonable positions for me. Sberbank is one of my largest holdings, but may not qualify as European.

Tiny position in DB.

What is your thesis on Sberbank over others. The PE is amazing cheap, but I didn't know it's market cap was as big as it is... but, it is dominate in Russia.... but, it's trading close to book.

Mostly covered in other threads on Russian stocks.

It's stupid cheap for being one of the largest and most profitable banks in the world. Is already a target of sanctions due to be partially state-owned and those didn't stop it which eases the threat going forward.

Lastly, it's a flight to quality for Russian depositors - Sberbank collects deposits in crisis while it's competition fails, leaving it more consolidated and with less competition going forward. This was true in both 2008 as well as 2014-2016. It will likely be true in the future.

Castanza

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 231
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #87 on: May 02, 2019, 11:30:36 AM »
Not to change the topic, but does anyone hold any EU bank positions? Seems interest rates are still on the back burner until 2020-21ish. LEAPS are starting to look attractive but timing is a bit hard to pinpoint.

SAN and Eurobank are reasonable positions for me. Sberbank is one of my largest holdings, but may not qualify as European.

Tiny position in DB.

What is your thesis on Sberbank over others. The PE is amazing cheap, but I didn't know it's market cap was as big as it is... but, it is dominate in Russia.... but, it's trading close to book.

Mostly covered in other threads on Russian stocks.

It's stupid cheap for being one of the largest and most profitable banks in the world. Is already a target of sanctions due to be partially state-owned and those didn't stop it which eases the threat going forward.

Lastly, it's a flight to quality for Russian depositors - Sberbank collects deposits in crisis while it's competition fails, leaving it more consolidated and with less competition going forward. This was true in both 2008 as well as 2014-2016. It will likely be true in the future.

Interesting, I've had this on my watch list for a bit now. Gonna have to dive in a little deeper. Any other insights to share? The sanctions piece you mentioned was interesting, that's was one thing that made me hesitant.

John Hjorth

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2523
Re: DB - Deutsche Bank AG
« Reply #88 on: May 02, 2019, 12:20:55 PM »
SBRCY - Sberbank topic here on CoBF.
ĒIn the race of excellence Ö there is no finish line.Ē
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai