Author Topic: LMCA - Liberty Media  (Read 434035 times)

WayWardCloud

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 109
Re: LMCA - Liberty Media
« Reply #1310 on: November 08, 2018, 09:23:14 PM »
Here's what I'm taking away from the Q3 call


Formula One

Chase Carey is not a good public speaker. It's hard to imagine him leading a team with conviction, but maybe he's different in person.
He kept repeating that things at F1 were harder than he initially thought and even though he was pressed to do so he wouldn't say 2019 was going to be any different.
I just don't read any form of confidence from him, almost a panic.

The good: a/ F1's online following is growing rapidly to impressive numbers. b/Events seem well organized with successful pairing of F1 races with concerts (Britney Spears + Bruno Mars in Austin for example), hotels, fan zones, merchandising, food and drinks.
The bad: a/ The OTT product is so far a complete technical disaster (way to turn off your core fan base) b/ Overall TV viewership is slightly down year on year c/ Negotiations with the teams about the Concord agreement sound very adversarial.


SiriusXMPandora

Greg Maffei says a IHeart deal has become very unlikely (I don't understand what has changed).
He's certain Apple won't buy them either despite the rumors.
He acknowledges a pairing of Live Nation with the music side of Liberty would make more sense but not at the valuation it's currently trading at (LYV is richly valued, LSXMA suffers from a ~30% discount)


Finally, what do you guys make of the ~6.5X debt ratio the Formula One group carries? It sounds awfully high but then again I don't know much about debt.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 11:15:07 PM by WayWardCloud »


thefatbaboon

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 487
Re: LMCA - Liberty Media
« Reply #1311 on: November 09, 2018, 07:18:29 AM »
Donít read too much into Chaseís way of speaking. Thatís how he has always sounded - a slightly jittery way of speaking and also he is an exec who spends time thinking and talking about whatís wrong or difficult in the business. Personally thatís something I like. 

That said after the massive post deal run up I found it difficult to not sell F1 on account of valuation and I donít like Ferrariís power.

Re leverage.  So long as business stays decent, the business is all fcf and can easily support a lot of debt.  If things turn south in some meaningful way (unlikely) then the equity market cap at this huge multiple is screwed with or without leverage. So I wouldnít  worry about leverage.

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11447
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: LMCA - Liberty Media
« Reply #1312 on: November 14, 2018, 07:50:01 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Foreign Tuffett

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 990
Re: LMCA - Liberty Media
« Reply #1313 on: November 14, 2018, 10:34:34 AM »
David Faber interview with Greg Maffei:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/11/14/liberty-media-ceo-greg-maffei-on-media-mergers.html

Maffei is so smart and articulate....makes most large company CEOs look like amateurs.

WayWardCloud

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 109
Re: LMCA - Liberty Media
« Reply #1314 on: January 03, 2019, 12:42:25 AM »
Faux Maffei (https://twitter.com/maffei_fake?lang=en) is apparently joking about a new FWONA (short?) thesis on VIC but unless we're part of the selected few we won't be able to read it for another 3 months :(
Can anyone share the love please? (if that's OK with the rules of this forum of course...).

WayWardCloud

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 109
Re: LMCA - Liberty Media
« Reply #1315 on: January 10, 2019, 05:06:16 AM »
Liberty Media in talks with Hollywood talent agency CAA for a stake in their company.
https://www.ft.com/content/493963f4-14b2-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e