Author Topic: SU - Suncor  (Read 11430 times)

kfh227

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2015, 10:35:45 AM »
FWIW just grabbed some calls out to Jan 2016.  50 calls for what is essentially free.

Yes, it's gambling but with small dollar amounts ... tails I loose a little, heads I win a lot.


nodnub

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2016, 01:08:51 AM »
Thinking about the fire impact.  I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on how much this will impact Suncor production and margins. 

After Slave Lake fire I think it took about a year to get a lot of residential stuff rebuilt.

Optimistic view, assume fire is stopped before it affects any of the camps or mines/plants - there is still going to be a huge time/cost to rebuild in the town. And it may be more expensive for Suncor to house workers in the interim. Production slow-downs or shut-downs already occurring due to diluent supply pipelines shut down, and evacuated staff. I also read that it is expensive to restart SAGD operations if they have to shut them down for any reason.

Pessimistic view. Lack of rain continues. Fire burns out of control for another week or two.  Area remains unsafe and production affected further. Fire spreads north towards Suncor Base Plant provoking further expense and plant slowdown. I am not real concerned about fire actually reaching the plant. It is pretty much an empty wasteland around there.  But it could affect other pipelines in that area?




Cardboard

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2016, 09:04:25 AM »
Having been there, it must be a scary place as spruce is all around: not around the mine but, everywhere else and with the dry and very hot temperature that they have had, the risk of more forest fires remain high. My thoughts are with them.

There is also only one way to get to Fort McMurray or Hwy 63 and then on up North to Suncor, CNRL and others and that highway is busy under normal times. Again all surrounded by spruce.

While I don't think that any Suncor facilities will burn down, pipeline pumping stations and In Situ or steam assisted gravity drainage operations from other companies are much more exposed to fire damage. Access is most of the time just a forest road on the side of Hwy 63 and these operations don't clear the forest miles around them.

Staffing at Suncor may not be impacted as they may offer temporary living but, they will have to pay overtime or compensation. For example, if a family worker was living in Fort McMurray or 30 minutes away from the mine and now the house is burned down and they are living somewhere in Edmonton or 5 hours away, it will create a bunch of problems. Then you have a lot of staffing for all support operations like pipelines as you mentioned. Almost impossible to not create some slowdown or extra cost.

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Jurgis

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2016, 02:23:58 PM »
Sorry to hear about the fire. Hoping for rain and at least safe evacuation until then...  :'(
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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RadMan24

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2016, 09:15:39 PM »
It will take time for the communities to be rebuilt and things back in order. If you take 300,000 bls/d offline, Suncor probably loses around $100 million in operating cash flows a month, subject to various factors of course. But a crude estimate. No pun intended.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2016, 08:34:42 PM »
Has anyone done serious valuation work on Suncor? I just started looking at the name today. They have continued increasing production through the oil price downturn and should produce upwards of 800 MBPD by 2019. Companies in cyclical industries that can keep investing through downturns tend (in general) to come out ahead.

I also think the market is overly bearish on oil sands production by vertically integrated producers like Suncor. Yeah oil sands bitumen production sells for a massive discount to WTI, but once upgraded at the refinery the discount doesn't look so bad. That's the genius of Suncor's management, and why they've gone "full retard" all in on the Alberta sands.

Anyway I still have lots of work to do on the company, but it does look promising.

JayGatsby

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2016, 11:24:25 PM »
Has anyone done serious valuation work on Suncor? I just started looking at the name today. They have continued increasing production through the oil price downturn and should produce upwards of 800 MBPD by 2019. Companies in cyclical industries that can keep investing through downturns tend (in general) to come out ahead.

I also think the market is overly bearish on oil sands production by vertically integrated producers like Suncor. Yeah oil sands bitumen production sells for a massive discount to WTI, but once upgraded at the refinery the discount doesn't look so bad. That's the genius of Suncor's management, and why they've gone "full retard" all in on the Alberta sands.

Anyway I still have lots of work to do on the company, but it does look promising.
If oil eventually prices at the cost of the marginal barrel my big question is what is that number? Most analysis today would say that oil sands have a higher all-in cost than fracking. So if that's true would we end up with more fracking and less oil sands? I'm still not convinced of the underlying economics of most of these fracking operations though. EIA production would imply the decline rates for some of these new wells are as steep as people have warned: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

I haven't spent any time with Suncor but I have a small investment in Civeo which provides lodge rooms to Suncor. I probably know less about oil and sands than I should to have that investment.

Viking

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2019, 06:49:33 PM »
Is anyone buying Canadian oil stocks these days? Is Suncor a good first step (for a stable core position)? RBC has Just moved SU to top pick.

Looks like they have a strong balance sheet. Cash flow should grow nicely in 2019 and 2020. Good dividend. Share repurchases should be decent. Just starting my reading but looks interssting.

Are they also be well positioned to be able to aquire nice assets for cheap?

Viking

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Re: SU - Suncor
« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2019, 09:45:17 AM »
Positive sign; as Peter Lynch said, insiders sell stock for all sorts of reasons. They usually only buy stock for one reason, especially $2 million worth.

Suncor insiders signal investors are too gloomy about the stock
“Insiders seem to be signalling that too much bad news is priced into the stock. In late December, as the stock headed toward levels not seen since the fall of 2016, multiple insiders were buying at intensities not seen in years. One of the buyers was CEO Steven Walter Williams who acquired 54,000 shares at $36.86 on Dec. 21. This represented a nearly $2-million purchase. We note Mr. Williams was selling in February when the stock was trading around just above $43.“

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-suncor-insiders-signal-investors-are-too-gloomy-about-the-stock/