Author Topic: PWE - Penn West Petroleum  (Read 482535 times)

SharperDingaan

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1480 on: June 14, 2019, 05:50:29 AM »
A lot of retail has more invested in this that they should have, and are just looking for something/where to place blame; we're just seeing turnover of the shareholder base, lots of venting, and advantage being taken of it. At only 73M shares, the float is only 4-5% (2.9-3.7M shares) at best; and over the last 4 days (post RS) -  total trading has burned through almost all of it.

We will know within 2 weeks (Jun-30) if we have a refinancing and/or a sale. A great many employees will also be in a position to finallly determine if they are likely to still have a job beyond Q4. Not a lot different to the dissappointment of the Toronto Raptors losing game 5 by 1 point; then winning game 6 - and ultimately taking the championship.

Deep value investors like to chant 'buy when there's blood in the streets!', but when it actually happens .... apparently can't pull the trigger. Obviously we have a different POV to many others, but respect their angst.

SD
 



 


roundball100

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1481 on: June 14, 2019, 06:36:57 AM »
Yes, it seems just like basketball. Whoever shoots, there is a 50% chance that the ball goes in each time.  It doesn't matter who the player is, each shot has a 1 in 2 chance. :-)

bizaro86

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1482 on: June 14, 2019, 06:54:18 AM »
Often when there's blood in the streets, someone is actually dying. Value investing, imo, is about knowing when it's just a flesh wound.

I'm not saying either way about OBE, and I have no position. But I did think some info about the buyer might be interesting for some.

constala

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1483 on: June 14, 2019, 07:59:42 AM »
"We will know within 2 weeks (Jun-30) if we have a refinancing and/or a sale. "

I would not hold my breath on the refinancing- they started roadshowing the bond idea with WTI at 58...we are now at 52, everybody knows that their deleveraging can not really start below 55. And management said they would  "only execute under favorable terms". Expect delays until crude market is better.

Regarding the sale, I am more optimistic, I would assume bank financing is available on Peace River for the buyer, it is a quality asset.
Everything in moderation, including moderation.

Joe689

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1484 on: June 14, 2019, 10:22:54 AM »
Remember that CIC is 45% partner with a tag along clause.   I would assume that highwood, and their financiers, needed to be prepared for taking the whole asset.  But CIC has already said, they are committed.  Therefore, I think it is more likely that is closes as they will only need half the money.

All I know is that we trade around 22k per flowing.    Barrel base that declines around 20%, probably 30% after new program and post PR sale.   Liquids weighted.   And they have tons of inventory....

Look at their new program, and tell me those are not outstanding results... the wells can pay back in months in not years

https://www.obsidianenergy.com/press-releases/obsidian-energy-announces-an-operational-update-on-cardium-drilling-program/

Just bizarre.  Deep value for sure.  Someone will be right here.  Not sure who

Liberty

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1485 on: June 14, 2019, 10:43:53 AM »
Someone will be right here.  Not sure who

With the equity down 99.3% since 2011, I'd say that so far, the only winners are management (getting millions in salaries) and short-sellers.
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Joe689

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1486 on: June 14, 2019, 11:17:08 AM »
Right, those who were super early and/or did not average down enough, are in big trouble.  Will never be made whole again.  So yes, mostly losers.   

Just wondering how people will make out who bought recently.    Price discovery is ongoing. 

tombgrt

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1487 on: June 14, 2019, 04:12:39 PM »
Can anyone give me an update on the mathematics of the coin toss, please? Is this still a 50/50 given it has dropped 50% from the last coin toss on 03/11? I'm a bit confused. Thank you in advance for your expertise.

SharperDingaan

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1488 on: June 15, 2019, 06:03:15 AM »
Apparently, as value investors, we suddenly can't even wait a full reporting period?
We're now momentum traders? - or horror of horror, day traders!

To use a hoops reference.
If I'm a Kawhi Leonard the ball goes in the hoop, maybe 85% of the time over a game.
50% for just trying (it either goes in, or it doesn't) + 35% for my skill.

But I'm a OBE investor ... with no skill.
The ball has only gone in 15% (profitable swing trades) of the time so far,
50% for just trying (it either goes in, or it doesn't) - 35% for my LACK OF skill.
Grumble, grumble  .. what should I do?

Seems to us that you can either sell, hold, or buy more.
You have no skill, and are momentum trading beyond your ability. Cut bait, and preserve your sanity.
You've realized you're only in the 2nd quarter, the game has some way to go. Take a powder, enjoy the rest of the game.
You've realized that if it pans out you're going to have a permanent loss. Average down enough for the condition to put you into a material profit instead. In the words of ZZ Top, 'I Gotsa Get Paid'  :D

We the board, just don't want to hear it, but those are your choices.
Obviously, we wish you luck in your decision.

SD

« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 05:43:16 PM by SharperDingaan »

doc75

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Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Reply #1489 on: June 15, 2019, 09:03:18 AM »
To use a hoops reference.
If I'm a Kawhi Leonard the ball goes in the hoop, maybe 85% of the time over a game.
50% for just trying (it either goes in, or it doesn't) + 35% for my skill.

But I'm a OBE investor ... with no skill.
The ball has only gone in 15% (profitable swing trades) of the time so far,
50% for just trying (it either goes in, or it doesn't) - 35% for my LACK OF skill.
Grumble, grumble  .. what should I do?

What should you do?   You should read a book on basic probability.  You continue to write mathematical nonsense.