Author Topic: RSYS - Radisys  (Read 5326 times)

Gregmal

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #30 on: August 14, 2018, 08:59:08 AM »
Sure, I agree. As I said the price action looked a bit suspicious and that's always a difficult battle: you need to have some conviction in your own assessment but you should be flexible enough to admit you are wrong at times. Maybe selling RSYS was the right thing to do last week. I was just a bit surprised because Greg seemed quite optimistic in his first few posts and then sold his entire position a few days (without news) later. I'm skeptical of trades based on 'gut feeling' or 'pattern recognition' - easy to delude yourself into thinking you are making good decisions while you are just following your emotions. But probably I overreacted. Don't take it personal.

I think this kind of discussion is actually quite helpful. Investing is a continuous live and learn experiment with no definitive answer either way. One thing I'd add is that things did look very good. Which just further made the active selling a red flag to me. I will admit, if anything learned/reinforced, it is that adding the element of untrustworthy characters to any equation adds a huge and burdensome wrinkle to things.


Foreign Tuffett

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #31 on: August 22, 2018, 07:33:39 AM »
This Seeking Alpha article just came out from behind a paywall today. I think it's part of the reason the stock has bounced up $0.20 off its lows.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4199139-radisys-merger-arbitrage-15-percent-spread

Foreign Tuffett

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porcupine

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2018, 01:35:33 PM »
I wonder how much the gap will close?
“Successful investing is having everyone agree with you — later.” –Joe Robillard.

Hilarious that COBF still has a section to give your AIM screen name.

writser

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2018, 02:00:45 PM »
I’d be surprised if RSYS trades significantly higher tomorrow. I don’t think any shareholder was against this deal. FWIW I sold most of my shares around $1.59. An 8% spread doesn’t seem unreasonable for a cross-border deal at a huge premium that can take ~3 - 6 months, that might be scrutinized by the FTC, where the buyer is a controversial Indian business man trying to buy a small company with some financial issues, without a termination fee. What would you say is a fair discount for such a deal?

It’s probably still cheapish but not nearly as attractive as it was around $1.50 and lower.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2018, 02:09:37 PM by writser »
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2018, 02:34:32 PM »
I’d be surprised if RSYS trades significantly higher tomorrow. I don’t think any shareholder was against this deal. FWIW I sold most of my shares around $1.59. An 8% spread doesn’t seem unreasonable for a cross-border deal at a huge premium that can take ~3 - 6 months, that might be scrutinized by the FTC, where the buyer is a controversial Indian business man trying to buy a small company with some financial issues, without a termination fee. What would you say is a fair discount for such a deal?

It’s probably still cheapish but not nearly as attractive as it was around $1.50 and lower.

Tough to disagree with any of that.

The only thing I would add is that management reaffirmed in today's press release that they "expect" that the deal will close this year. Makes for a solid IRR if you have conviction the deal will close.

writser

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2018, 01:54:30 PM »
It's getting tempting to buy a few shares again ..
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2018, 09:25:30 AM »
It's getting tempting to buy a few shares again ..

Earnings out this morning. Transaction still "expected" to close in Q4. IMO everything appears to be on track....all about what CFIUS will do.

Overall, I agree that it looks good @ $1.52.

hillfronter83

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2018, 10:42:38 AM »
It's getting tempting to buy a few shares again ..

Just in time to roll some CALL proceeds into this:) UWN is becoming interesting too without any news.

writser

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Re: RSYS - Radisys
« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2018, 01:56:27 AM »
This one looks way more risky to me though on multiple levels. I bought a few shares but still a very small position. I was afk yesterday. Managed to buy 500 extra shares of UWN.. Disappointing but fortunately I already had a decent position there.
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.