Author Topic: BABA - Alibaba  (Read 50583 times)

Voodooking

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Re: BABA - Alibaba
« Reply #160 on: May 18, 2018, 08:01:36 AM »
https://www.economist.com/business/2018/01/18/chinese-tech-companies-plan-to-steal-american-cloud-firms-thunder

I've been hearing a lot recently about how Alibaba is planning to list on the main exchange in China this summer, by offering Chinese residents the opportunity to purchase stock (possibly by way of CDR's).

What do you guys think the result of this will be, do you think the stock will rise when the Chinese get a chance to buy something that until now they have not been able to own? I know that savings rates are very high in China, approx 50% by some reports. People with that much cash saved are capable of buying a lot of shares if there is indeed demand.

This article also suggests that BABA will compete or overtake Amazon Web Services in cloud offerings in the US...

I wish I could see the runway a bit more clearly on this one to anticipate growth in 20 or 30 years and whether it matches the rise in Chinese consumption.


jeffswaldron

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Re: BABA - Alibaba
« Reply #161 on: May 23, 2018, 10:16:51 AM »
It looks like Li lu / Himalaya Capital Management LLC has bought into this company.  Does that intrigue anyone to research this more and am I missing something?

https://fintel.io/i13f/himalaya-capital-management/2018-03-31-0

mwtorock

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Re: BABA - Alibaba
« Reply #162 on: May 23, 2018, 10:54:30 AM »
It looks like Li lu / Himalaya Capital Management LLC has bought into this company.  Does that intrigue anyone to research this more and am I missing something?

https://fintel.io/i13f/himalaya-capital-management/2018-03-31-0

i dont know if this is just a tracking position or not. For high conviction ideas, he usually bets a lot more than that. personally i would not read too much into it.

ajc

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Re: BABA - Alibaba
« Reply #163 on: May 23, 2018, 11:08:06 AM »


It looks like Li lu / Himalaya Capital Management LLC has bought into this company.  Does that intrigue anyone to research this more and am I missing something?

https://fintel.io/i13f/himalaya-capital-management/2018-03-31-0



It's a sizeable position of mine via my Softbank holding and my FCSS.L stake. I don't think it's too complex of an idea.

- They're still growing at a very good clip with their core business.
- They own Lazada which is ASEAN's biggest e-commerce player and they've only recently started putting resources and effort into that. It's a market of more than 600 million people.
- They also own about half of Cainiao, which is China's biggest logistics company (like UPS and FedEx combined, I guess).
- Their Amazon Web Services-like platform, Aliyun, has a huge growth runway for at least a decade or two.
- There are other things to mention like their big PayTM stake, Ele.me, etc, but if you do some rough math on what the above businesses could be worth then that's a fair start.

In terms of near-term catalysts, there are a few:

- They own 33% of Ant Financial. It's due to IPO late this year or in 2019. I think it's currently valued at around $150B. Yu'e Bao is also part of Ant, and is the world's biggest money-market fund.
- Didi has also apparently hired banks for a 2019 IPO. $BABA owns about 15% of the company from my estimates. Roughly, they should get a market cap of around $120B, so that's worth $20B right there.
- There's also the listing of China's major tech companies on their home exchanges, including $BABA. Until now, local Chinese have been unable to own their own national champions. The government is fast-tracking this process. As catalysts go, I think it could potentially be a massive one.

There're other mentionables, like it's capital-light, the Chinese market is cheap, etc, but I think those are some reasonable ones that are worth taking into account.



ajc

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Re: BABA - Alibaba
« Reply #164 on: May 23, 2018, 12:46:03 PM »


It's a sizeable position of mine via my Softbank holding and my FCSS.L stake. I don't think it's too complex of an idea.

- They're still growing at a very good clip with their core business.
- They own Lazada which is ASEAN's biggest e-commerce player and they've only recently started putting resources and effort into that. It's a market of more than 600 million people.
- They also own about half of Cainiao, which is China's biggest logistics company (like UPS and FedEx combined, I guess).
- Their Amazon Web Services-like platform, Aliyun, has a huge growth runway for at least a decade or two.
- There are other things to mention like their big PayTM stake, Ele.me, etc, but if you do some rough math on what the above businesses could be worth then that's a fair start.

In terms of near-term catalysts, there are a few:

- They own 33% of Ant Financial. It's due to IPO late this year or in 2019. I think it's currently valued at around $150B. Yu'e Bao is also part of Ant, and is the world's biggest money-market fund.
- Didi has also apparently hired banks for a 2019 IPO. $BABA owns about 15% of the company from my estimates. Roughly, they should get a market cap of around $120B, so that's worth $20B right there.
- There's also the listing of China's major tech companies on their home exchanges, including $BABA. Until now, local Chinese have been unable to own their own national champions. The government is fast-tracking this process. As catalysts go, I think it could potentially be a massive one.

There're other mentionables, like it's capital-light, the Chinese market is cheap, etc, but I think those are some reasonable ones that are worth taking into account.



I'll add one final thing from a Connie Chan (a16z) presentation I watched yesterday.

The video is somewhere over ten minutes in total, and a fair amount of it sounds a bit Orwellian, but the part from 7m20s to 8m15s is really interesting from an Alibaba investment perspective.

The opportunity she discusses seems like a really substantial one, and that could potentially be another significant growth driver for them over time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu5hTMlTU-U