Author Topic: BBRY - Blackberry (Formerly RIM)  (Read 678341 times)

shalab

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2011, 07:47:52 AM »
there will not be 5 big winners in this space.    Android growth is, and will continue to be, phenomenal, though I believe Android should be considered in a separate category from Apple, Nokia, RIM, Microsoft (Google leads the development of the open-source Android O/S, but there are countless device manufacturers).

When looking at winners and losers, it is the business model that one should look into.

From that perspective:

Apple - unified HW and SW solution, great app store, great experience. Primary target - consumer.
Android/Windows Phone: Same business model. The difference here is the same as Unix vs Windows. Windows promises a unified experience across devices. Microsoft/Google can provide seamless integration with the cloud, e-mail services and office documents. From an enterprise admin standpoint, windows phone offers more secure features.
RIMM - unified HW and SW solution. App store hasnt taken off, experience so-so. Primary target - enterprise. Charges for the software separately.
Nokia - unified HW and SW solution. Hasn't taken off in the smart phone space. Primary target - consumer

Now, you can tweak some parameters and see how this will play out in three-five years.



Myth465

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2011, 08:39:25 AM »
I think these 2-3 are the clear winners.

Apple - unified HW and SW solution, great app store, great experience. Primary target - consumer.

Android/Windows Phone: Same business model. The difference here is the same as Unix vs Windows. Windows promises a unified experience across devices. Microsoft/Google can provide seamless integration with the cloud, e-mail services and office documents. From an enterprise admin standpoint, windows phone offers more secure features.

----

Apple makes money off hardware and apps. They also maintain crossover appeal and get access to the Corporate space for tablet and laptop sells.

Google makes money off apps and may get to monetize Android somehow at sometime. They also keep internet access open.

Windows gets to stay relevant and may cannibalize Rim as the preferred Corporate device.

-----

Rim - Goes into Runoff.

Nokia - Lives or dies in the third world and maybe Europe.




Thats my bet.

roundball100

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2011, 07:30:28 PM »
I think RIM is toast. All they have going for them is security. My company would really like to drop the server fee. Windows is free. Plus I hate my black berry.
Myth - is there a significant lock-in factor or cost preventing you from switching to a competing infrastructure/devices, or is it just inertia?

roundball100

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2011, 07:54:57 PM »
But I assume the lock-in is from your friendly IT guy in the enterprise environment.

Myth465

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2011, 07:50:11 AM »
My blackberry is personal but you are correct most of my coworkers are trapped with the same devices due to our local IT guy. Most of the executives however have IPhones which are being "tested". Interesting times.

I will be switching when I can find a cheap Windows 7 phone which may take a while.

roundball100

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2011, 05:31:18 PM »
Myth - why did you originally buy your Blackberry (did you expect more than you got, have better things since become available, ...)?

ERICOPOLY

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #16 on: January 15, 2011, 05:56:41 PM »
I got rid of my Blackberry this summer for an IPhone.  I hated the Blackberry so much that I switched from Verizon to AT&T (the only IPhone provider).

I wanted a better browser -- that was the core reason.  Of course, I love the integrated IPod on the IPhone too (with Bluetooth I just play music on my new Pioneer Elite streamed from my IPhone).



Myth465

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2011, 08:35:41 PM »
I thought Windows was dead and got annoyed after the 4th broken HTC phone. I decided I should get on another platform like the IPhone, or Android. I am anti Apple and for some reason went back to RIM before trying the Android. With the blackberry I feel like its 4 year old technology.

FlyingArrow

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2011, 07:08:37 PM »
Sounds like I might be the odd duck here....
 
Personally I think the story is compelling for RIM. Here's some quick thoughts - random and anecdotal as they may be...

Some thoughts on corporate:
1. I'm an Apple guy. Mac's at home, kids have iPads, wife has iPhone. As for the iPhone I tried hers for a couple of days. Love it for the fun stuff and browsing. Drove me crazy trying to email. Would never consider it for work.
2. As with most business people I've always used a Blackberry at work. Hated the browser. Got a torch a couple of months ago. Love the browser, love it for media, love it for email as it has my trusted BB keyboard. Occasionally use the soft keyboard for short mail but similar to iPhone, they are not optimal for typing. There is nothing I feel I'm missing on the Torch vs. the iPhone.
3. For the longest time I've seen a lot of business people with both a BB for work and an iPhone for personal use. We all need to simplify. I think many will consolidate on the torch (with a tethered Playbook to come).
4. I know of 4 people who were allowed to switch to iPhones at work and within a month dumped them and went back to the BB. The business world has gotten incredibly efficient sending emails on BB's and the iPhone is no substitute. Those people went back to BB's when they only had the Bold. Now with the Torch I'm sure they are even more satisfied.
5. I had a conversation with a financial planner at a New Years Eve party who has a client who switched his entire small company (60 users) from BB's to iPhones with great hoopla. Everyone was excited. The vast majority now hates it and wants to go back to BB's. The guy is kicking himself.
6. There is far more inertia in corporate IT with BB's than many are considering. With the torch's arrival and Playbook imminent you can bet they are digging in their heels as they know they can satisfy their users with what is to come. I can say that is the case for three CIO's I canvassed on this.
7. I strongly believe RIM will be the Gorilla in the corporate market for some time. We all saw corporate challengers to Microsoft but look how long they have owned that space and continued to milk oversized profits from it. Curious that we never see stats purely on the corporate market. I think they would be more telling. I've heard alot about XX% of Fortune 500's are trying iPhones. Well, I've seen the results of a few trials.

Some thoughts on Personal and consumer use:
1. I bought my mom a seniors phone this Xmas. The phone's not relevant. The buying experience is. While in the cell phone store I counted the phones. 25% of devices were BB devices. The iPhone is one device at the high end. I asked the manager what the percentage of sales were that came from BB's. She said around 25%. I laughed and told her that lined up with my device count. She looked at me like I was some kind of freak for counting phones...
2. While waiting I watched a mom and daughter at the counter. Mom is a business person. Daughter (16) got a new BB curve for Xmas. They were signing up for a data plan and using BB messenger between them. Daughter uses BB messenger amongst all her friends. They must all have BB's too.
3. Went to Blockbuster right after I left the cell phone store. The 17 year old dude at the counter goes nuts over my Torch. Says he's getting one in a week and can't wait. He thinks it's the best device on the market. Lives on texts and wants BB messenger and the big screen browsing of the Torch.
4. I use the kids iPads occasionally. I hate that they don't do flash. Had to break it to the kids when they wanted to go to my little pet shop online but couldn't because it uses flash. They love them now with all the apps and don't do much web browsing anyway. But for me, I want a device that supports flash. And I don't want a 3G device and another monthly bill. I will use my corporate BB tethered. Company pays the bill. I will be even more productive. And the form factor is way better for a business guy with too much to carry as it is.
5. I've tried a Kindle and I'm buying one for a reader while traveling business. Far better device for the purpose they either iPad or Playbook. Not all that relevant but supports the notion that devices built for specific purposes will win for that purpose. Playbook will win for business. iPad for the rest.

Some general comments:
1. For the longest time I was concerned that RIM was too set on doing everything in house and by themselves and their corporate roots would result in them falling too far behind in things like usability, user interface, and cool factor. Even with those concerns I thought the market was throwing them in the trash just like FFH a while back. I bought in pretty big at $48. At the time had no idea that Prem and team were in too.
2. As the fall progressed I was happy with RIM moving to $60. Started thinking about what's next. Then I see RIM acquiring TAT. Now it get's interesting. How many of the detractors have considered what this could mean? Some interesting thoughts here:
http://blogs.blackberry.com/2010/12/rim-welcomes-tat/
http://www.androidguys.com/2010/12/02/astonishing-tribe-acquired-rim-honor-current-android-agreements/

Look at some of the video's on TAT's site. I think the cool factor won't be a problem anymore! Oh, and it's interesting that their technology is in 470 million phones. 15% of all phones sold in 2010. 20% of all touch phones sold in 2010. As the article above suggests - those other phones need to go somewhere else for "cool" now. RIM is the focus.

I believe the market is pricing RIM based on imminent death like they did with FFH back in the day. The only difference is that FFH got closer than I think RIM ever will.

When I bet really big on FFH I can honestly say I did all my homework, knew more about FFH's business and financials then my own company (only because Prem shares so much with his shareholders in writing and the annual meetings - Thanks Prem!). With RIM I can't say the same. The thesis is more in my gut. I'm making the call on a purely different level. But I've plowed in at $60 with similar conviction that I had back in 2003 and 2006 on FFH's big dips - as with FFH I'm using common and the leaps. I hope the future treats me as well and this doesn't prove to be a lesson.....

So far so good.  ;D

Long RIM, FFH, SSW, FBK, GE

Cheers,


Mark
Toronto

The poster formerly know as Sleepless Twindaddy

Viking

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Re: RIM - Research in Motion
« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2011, 03:06:50 PM »
Here is a nice summary and forecast for 2011 for smartphone manufacturers and operating systems. Author (Tomi Ahonen) sees some nice opportunities for RIM to take share from NOK. The primary risk to RIM looks to be if Apple launches a phone with a QWERTY keyboard. With RIM trading back to $61 hard to see any NOK upside priced into the shares. Has anyone come across any other good articles discussing RIM? Thanks.

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/03/preview-bloodbath-2-electric-boogaloo-the-smartphone-wars-in-year-2011-will-be-bloodier-still.html#comments