Author Topic: RYAAY - Ryanair  (Read 4189 times)

coc

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 204
RYAAY - Ryanair
« on: June 26, 2019, 01:07:49 PM »
Hi gang. Does anyone here own or follow Ryanair? I am doing some work to understand the business and Iím curious if smarter minds have positive or negative thoughts - thanks!


MrB

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1140
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2019, 01:36:30 PM »
Owned it before. Fantastic business and been watching it lately. Seems cheap again, but think it has above avg capex coming up. Currently own ALGT and like it better. RYA seems a good one to look at now though.

chrispy

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 276
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2019, 05:32:48 AM »
Scuttleblurb has in depth write-ups on Ryan and wiz

coc

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 204
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2019, 06:43:13 AM »
Scuttleblurb has in depth write-ups on Ryan and wiz

Thanks - I did read his piece on Ryanair - a good short overview.

Owned it before. Fantastic business and been watching it lately. Seems cheap again, but think it has above avg capex coming up. Currently own ALGT and like it better. RYA seems a good one to look at now though.

They do have what O'Leary has called peak capex coming this year, and 200 planes coming in by 2024 - agreed.

What makes you like ALGT better?

Thanks!

UK

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 100
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2019, 01:08:20 AM »
Looks interesting?

« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 10:57:58 PM by UK »

UK

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 100
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2019, 07:28:35 AM »

coc

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 204
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2019, 08:21:06 AM »
Yes RYAAY is authorized to buy in 700M EUR worth of shares through next summer - at these prices they should be able to get 75-80M shares. They will be down more than a third from when they began the program a few years back. Note they have also paid three large special dividends in the past decade as well.

Right now the market hates airlines in general. IAG is even cheaper than RYAAY. The Max delays hurt temporarily (RYAAY is probably the largest single buyer) and its pilot unions are agitating.

So itís pretty well hated and today came the inevitable downgrades.

We shall see how OíLeary manages through.

rogermunibond

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 786
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2019, 10:11:02 AM »
RYAAY is down even further than after the June 2016 Brexit vote.

Interesting comments from Leary about consolidation and airlines closings coming in winter 2019.  He pegs Norwegian as one to close.

Says by 2024 there will likely be four major airline groups - RyanAir, IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France/KLM.

UK

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 100
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2019, 09:51:41 PM »
From 2017: https://www.scuttleblurb.com/ryanair/

So it was 16x trailing earnings at ~20 per cent margins and now it is at 11-12x at 11 per cent margins. Even if these margins are "new normal" what else changed, except for some probably temporary headwinds?

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3245
Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2019, 09:13:22 AM »
Looks interesting?

Yes, it looks interesting. I joined the cheap seats here with a starter position.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.