Author Topic: SHLD - Sears  (Read 2492869 times)

rogermunibond

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8760 on: January 21, 2017, 05:30:53 AM »
Has anyone compared what ESL has done with total value of SHLD, Orchard Supply, SHOS, SRG, Sears Canada, any thing missing, 5 years ago versus today. Kind of like what LMCA does with Liberty and all its spinoffs and trackers.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 05:33:25 AM by rogermunibond »


ScottHall

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8761 on: January 21, 2017, 06:07:04 AM »
Just read an article on the recent Craftsman deal which put a new light on what Sears really got. Was wondering why nobody wrote about the value embedded in the fact that Sears we'd still be able to sell its own craftsman tools royalty free.

They make money when selling the products and on the warranties the sell on them. The guarantor part of the holding will continue to pay the non-guarantor the royalty fees (as will SWK) and the later will also pocket the warranties premiums...

When will people finally understand what E.Lampert is really doing...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4038369-sears-sells-craftsman-deal-power

Another classic Eddie move of taking money out of one pocket and into another that the creditors can't touch.

The rules of bankruptcy will soon be out the window with our new President's proclivity for driving towards default with his own business interests. It won't be long now until the unified populist Republican government eliminates all creditor protections in the bankruptcy court so that creditors can take haircut without shareholders giving up their own rights.

We can tell from his Atlas Shrugged-inspired organizational structure that Eddie Lampert understands incentives better than anyone in America right now, and has correctly predicted with his financial engineering at Sears that the bankruptcy laws will soon be null and void after the U.S. Government defaults on its debt obligations without any recourse. As we head from the World of Balance into the World of Ruin, this sovereign default will set a new worldwide precedent for the protection of creditors and Eddie has bet massively on the right side of that trade to the benefit of Sears shareholders.

That's why it was so critical to spin-off the bad assets early; so long-suffering Sears shareholders could book tax losses without losing their ownership of the core business and real estate, thereby maximizing the difference in the present value of those tax losses when compared to the capital gains that are likely to appear within the next few years. Eddie understood that the market was not fairly valuing his business in the World of Ruin and did what he could to throw the shareholders a bone and reward them for their conviction.

A lot of people laughed at Bruce Berkowitz when he gave a SHLD valuation of $147, but it is becoming clearer by the day that he had correctly predicted the turn of history and will be duly rewarded for it, not only in the form of dollars, but in his restored credibility as one of the greatest value investors of all time.
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doughishere

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8762 on: January 21, 2017, 06:20:33 AM »
And it looks like ESL just distributed 1.8 million shares of SHLD to redeeming partners:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923727/000119312517007901/d280243dsc13da.htm

95m by management and directors At April of last year.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 07:16:25 AM by doughishere »

Jurgis

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8763 on: January 21, 2017, 09:52:05 AM »
Has anyone compared what ESL has done with total value of SHLD, Orchard Supply, SHOS, SRG, Sears Canada, any thing missing, 5 years ago versus today. Kind of like what LMCA does with Liberty and all its spinoffs and trackers.

This question is asked on this thread every couple of months. Search the thread, Luke?
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walt373

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8764 on: January 22, 2017, 01:27:09 AM »
Sears layoffs message board: https://www.thelayoff.com/sears-holdings?sort=active. Probably one of the most depressing things I've ever read.

tede02

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8765 on: January 22, 2017, 01:16:38 PM »
I stopped into a Sears store this morning that is part of the most recent round of closures to see if there were any good deals.  It was just sad walking through it.  It was so obvious that the store had been neglected for years.  The lighting, flooring, virtually everything looked worn and tired.  I honestly felt sad seeing it and knowing this would be the last time I ever walked through the same Sears store I did as a kid (very good possibility I'll never shop at a Sears store again). 

DTEJD1997

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8766 on: January 23, 2017, 04:18:22 PM »
Hey all:

I went shopping at a K-mart near my house today.  The K-Mart has been there as long as I've been alive and I can remember shopping in it as a child...

It is certainly run down, BUT it is reasonably clean and well stocked (at first glance).  Almost all of their clothing and shoes & boots are "house brands" or brands I've never heard of.  Selection was OK, but not great in terms of sizes. 

Physically, the store is in OK shape, but rough around the edges.  The workers seem to be doing the best they can with limited resources.  It was not the disaster that I was expecting after seeing reports on the interwebs of things being run down.

Check out was bad...too many questions, too slow, too many printouts & coupons.  I very strongly suspect that if one were sharp & inclined to figure out....there could be all sorts of ways to game the system at Kmart-Sears when buying things.

They had good bargains on certain items...but other items were priced way too high.

Food & toys & hardware seems to be less well stocked than in years past.

Overall, this store seems to be putting up a valiant fight...but THERE IS SIMPLY NO WAY OUT.  They are not going to be able to compete vs. Amazon, Wal-Mart, Cost-co, Meijers and others. 

In my opinion, shutting down/bankruptcy is the only option.  The only question is how long it will take.

PLynchJr

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8767 on: January 27, 2017, 07:27:39 AM »
Yikes...approaching $7 a share today!   :o

redwood

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8768 on: January 27, 2017, 07:52:16 AM »
estimate to burn 1.8 billion this year and the price of the whole company is 800M.

Candyman1

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Re: SHLD - Sears
« Reply #8769 on: January 27, 2017, 09:43:51 AM »
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSFit987711

"Sears has injected almost $12 billion in liquidity between 2012 to 2016 to fund ongoing operations"

Also ... tangible equity at the end of October 16 was a cool negative $5.5 billion. SHLD's situation looks awesome now that it is expected to incorporate the Q4 losses after SSS declined 12% to 13% in November and December. And then 2017 is expected to blow through $1.8 billion after $250 million in positive inventory adjustment. It is pretty easy to see that tangible equity could be a negative $7.5 billion by the end of 2017. I know SHLD has some assets to sell but I seriously doubt if there is $7.5 billion in value to still sell. (Since Craftsman has not yet closed I did not include it yet.)

Also anyone notice how little SHLD got for Craftsman with only $525 million upfront. I don't think the $250 million that is supposed to come in 3 years will be of much value to current shareholders. I can only imagine how little Kenmore and Diehard will fetch upon a sale.

Hard to see how SHLD makes it past 2017.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 10:01:28 AM by Candyman1 »