Author Topic: SIGM - Sigma Designs  (Read 8285 times)

writser

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2018, 06:24:25 AM »
$6 initial distribution upcoming. Guidance updated to ~$6 - $6.375 / share.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17221779-sigma-designs-announces-plan-initial-distribution-6_00-per-share-shareholders-connection

Traded a bit in and out of this during the year. Some price spikes, for example I managed to pick up some shares the 9th of July.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 06:29:57 AM by writser »
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walkie518

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2018, 06:52:20 AM »
$6 initial distribution upcoming. Guidance updated to ~$6 - $6.375 / share.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17221779-sigma-designs-announces-plan-initial-distribution-6_00-per-share-shareholders-connection

Traded a bit in and out of this during the year. Some price spikes, for example I managed to pick up some shares the 9th of July.

Quote
"We believe that our total aggregate distributions, which includes this initial distribution, will fall within the range of $240 million and $255 million, with the expected share count to be approximately 40.0 million shares.

this would leave $5m downside with possible $10m upside...I can't tell if I missed the boat

forgive my ignorance, but do you know what the tax implications are for the distributions?

writser

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2018, 07:21:43 AM »
this would leave $5m downside with possible $10m upside...I can't tell if I missed the boat
Yeah, seems more or less fairly priced. I'm not buying at $6.15.

Quote
forgive my ignorance, but do you know what the tax implications are for the distributions?
I'd say that, given the accumulated deficit, these would be classified as 'return of capital'. But I'm no US citizen and tax implications are not my specialty - it's not so important for me. Maybe contact IR if you want to know for sure?
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writser

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2018, 05:33:10 AM »
Trading ex today. I wasn't paying attention but first few premarket trades of the stub were at $0.35 - $0.45. Would have loved to sell there but missed the opportunity. Very low volume anyway. I sold my position in the stub at $0.30 today. Latest estimate for payout is $0m - $15m or up to $0.375 per share. IRR of my trades is pretty meaningless since I traded in and out of my position at opportune times. My average buy price was around $5.95, average sell price $6.22 and I flipped around my position about two times in total since I started buying in February.

Hard work though, basically the stock market equivalent of flipping burgers. I guess the hourly was a bit better.

At three specific points in time I think you can argue that the mispricing was most extreme: at the end of January / beginning of February the stock drifted down to as low as $5.50 for a diluted market cap of $220m which I think was on the low side given that $240m in cash was incoming. In the end of July / beginning of August there was some confusion about the ex-date and you could've easily picked up some shares at $6.05. And today premarket you could've sold the stub for around $0.35 which I think is on the high side (though only some retail volume).
« Last Edit: August 15, 2018, 05:59:32 AM by writser »
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wabuffo

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2018, 07:08:35 AM »
wild action in this one on Monday's early morning trading.  There was confusion over the true x-date and it forced Nasdaq to bust trades. 

I wonder why Nasdaq, OTC allow this confusion to persist and then have to make random/arbitrary decisions about whether to bust trades or not and at what price levels.

wabuffo
« Last Edit: August 15, 2018, 07:19:20 AM by wabuffo »

writser

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2018, 12:19:24 PM »
Stub starting to look interesting again for a small position.
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writser

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2018, 12:39:38 PM »
FWIW I've been buying the stub a bit too optimistically (f**k me) and now have a ~1% position at an average price of ~$0.19. So I'm down a bit on this but I don't want to size it much bigger as there's not really a margin of safety. Still I think this is a decent bet at current prices. The company guided for $0 - $0.38 per stub. I think management has some incentives to be conservative with their estimates as investors will be really pissed if the stub turns out to be worthless. There could be some selling pressure as this is getting delisted and large investors get rid of their marginal positions in the stub. Also, the wide range of payouts might not be very attractive from a psychological perspective to most investors.

Basically I think you buy for $0.15 a decent chance at a $0.20 - $0.25 ish payout. Obviously hard to handicap this exactly but I think that partially explains why it could be mispriced: there is hardly any data to analyse and nobody likes to buy something that's potentially worthless.

A contrary opinion would be appreciated.
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bianji108

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2018, 12:59:11 PM »
Shareholders can't say anything if there's nothing left as it is still within the range, though. I used to like these CVR, Stubs and Escrow plays as the projected return on expected stub value is pretty good, but most of the time for me it takes lots of time to get the distributions that are usually less than what I expected based on the PR before they delist.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2018, 10:34:39 AM »
I agree with writser that this is a good bet given the significant discount to the midpoint of estimated future distributions. I just bought some @ $0.15-ish

writser

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Re: SIGM - Sigma Designs
« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2019, 02:03:58 AM »
Interesting action yesterday on no news whatsoever. Might be a good time to sell.
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