Author Topic: XOM - Exxon  (Read 7927 times)

philippoc93

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2016, 10:08:38 PM »
J Mintzmyer on SA has a detailed article from earlier on in February explaining why CVX is his favourite short for 2016. You should see the push back he got off it in the comments. However, I found his article to be detailed and based on sound logic and facts.

Definitely worth reading if considering a short position on the stock

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3841766-chevron-best-short-idea-2016


ratiman

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2016, 01:22:40 PM »
After looking into this a little more, it turns out there really isn't much of a connection between the price of oil and Exxon. The market is smart enough to ignore the oil price. Below is Exxon during the late 90s oil market when oil reached $10.

But Exxon today is nothing like Exxon then. Exxon today has a dividend yield about the same as P&G and Coke, not like a high cost commodity company facing new, lower-cost competitors. BP and RDS, maybe because they're foreign, have 7% and 8% yields, which is more rational for a company borrowing to pay the dividend.




doughishere

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2016, 10:17:37 AM »
https://charlierose.com/videos/28073

JOHN WATSON
Tuesday 05/17/2016
The chairman and C.E.O. of Chevron discusses oil prices and renewable energy.


thepupil

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2018, 02:03:12 PM »
So I'm resurrecting this thread 2 years later.

 XOM declined by about 10% for a total return of -2.5% with divvies
 XOM over the past 2 years has underperformed the S&P by 45% (20% per annum)
 XOM over the past 2 years has underperformed the S&P 500 energy index and the E&P ETF by 28% and 24% (7-10% / annum).

Over this time period, Oil has gone from $37-->$60 and corporate tax reform was passed.

I'm curious if anyone owns or has looked at this.

It was seemed pretty obvious to me from a high level that this was expensive/mispriced 2 years ago.

I think it may be borderline interesting today (for a dumb schmuck like me w/ no other energy exposure).






EricSchleien

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2018, 02:07:40 PM »
Something interesting about XOM. I don't have a position long or short but thought this was interesting. Was at a wedding a few weeks ago with my gf and got into a conversation with this guy who was an engineer at Phillips 66. He thought XOM was a joke when it came to design standards and he said there's so much beauracratic bullshit over there that they do things very inefficiently.

Spekulatius

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2018, 02:36:25 PM »
So I'm resurrecting this thread 2 years later.

 XOM declined by about 10% for a total return of -2.5% with divvies
 XOM over the past 2 years has underperformed the S&P by 45% (20% per annum)
 XOM over the past 2 years has underperformed the S&P 500 energy index and the E&P ETF by 28% and 24% (7-10% / annum).

Over this time period, Oil has gone from $37-->$60 and corporate tax reform was passed.

I'm curious if anyone owns or has looked at this.

It was seemed pretty obvious to me from a high level that this was expensive/mispriced 2 years ago.

I think it may be borderline interesting today (for a dumb schmuck like me w/ no other energy exposure).

There are most likely better bets it there, but XOM has such a long history of being a superior operator and still a bulletproof balance sheet, that I do think they are interesting for a LT buy and forget Energy allocation in a portfolio.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

investmd

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2019, 09:47:01 PM »
So I'm resurrecting this thread 2 years later.

 XOM declined by about 10% for a total return of -2.5% with divvies
 XOM over the past 2 years has underperformed the S&P by 45% (20% per annum)
 XOM over the past 2 years has underperformed the S&P 500 energy index and the E&P ETF by 28% and 24% (7-10% / annum).

Over this time period, Oil has gone from $37-->$60 and corporate tax reform was passed.

I'm curious if anyone owns or has looked at this.

It was seemed pretty obvious to me from a high level that this was expensive/mispriced 2 years ago.

I think it may be borderline interesting today (for a dumb schmuck like me w/ no other energy exposure).

There are most likely better bets it there, but XOM has such a long history of being a superior operator and still a bulletproof balance sheet, that I do think they are interesting for a LT buy and forget Energy allocation in a portfolio.

Resurrecting this thread 3 years later.
XOM now down 20% over past 3 years before dividends. Has dropped 10% within past 3 months which has led to a dividend yield of 5% on a "blue chip" stock at a time when Tbills are <3%. While recognizing that the past is not a reflection of the future, how much emphasis can one put on fact that XOM has increased dividends annually for the last 37 CONSECUTIVE years!?!

XOM is such a large integrated player, I assume that they will be part of the future of energy - regardless of whether the future is oil, solar, nuclear or something we haven't heard of yet. As the future evolves, XOM will own part of it. World will always need energy in one form or another. In the meanwhile, there is a juicy dividend to pay one for waiting.

At $70 is now a good time to buy or is one catching a falling knife??

awindenberger

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2019, 04:08:14 AM »
If you like Exxon at 5% dividend, you might want to consider Shell and its 6.5% dividend. Shell is also looking forward better and already investing reasonable sums into renewables ($2-3B annually). They have a goal to be the #1 electric power provider in the world by the 2030s.

Tomahawk25

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Re: XOM - Exxon
« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2019, 08:31:16 AM »
True to form, XOM has arguably gone "all in" on oil, gas/LNG compared to the other majors. Royal Dutch, Total, Repsol have all made large renewables investments, both hedging themselves and transitioning outright.  One could argue a purchase of XOM is a belief that oil lasts much longer than common forecasts as a major fuel source.  I am not so sure XOM will be as much a part of other future energies like solar/wind given their project focus (Permian drilling, LNG in Papua New Guinea, Mozambique- can someone tell me a large XOM renewable project i'm not aware of? )  Now if XOM was priced almost like a cigar butt, with an understanding that oil would be phased out by Year X and as much FCF generated as possible, that might be more interesting.  Especially if hydrocarbons did "dominate" as transport fuel longer than expected....