Author Topic: SSW - Seaspan  (Read 106712 times)

JEast

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SSW - Seaspan
« on: January 08, 2010, 05:35:12 PM »
Seaspan accepted the delivery of its 43rd containership. By accepting it at the beginning of the year the ship is now classified as one year younger than a December delivery.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Seaspan-Accepts-Delivery-of-iw-3196817656.html?x=0&.v=1

Cheers
JEast

Long SSW
« Last Edit: January 05, 2011, 11:26:04 AM by Parsad »


lessthaniv

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2010, 06:16:54 PM »
I had a giggle today.

Back on Aug 25th/2009 Cramer was asked about Seaspan in the Lightening Round. He said, and I quote: "You are doomed... Here's one... I would rather watch C-Span, than own Seaspan!"

AUG 25th/2009: Stock price was $6.50


(source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/158275-cramer-s-lightning-round-better-watch-c-span-than-buy-seaspan-8-25-09 )

Yesterday on the mad money fund blogspot Cramer picks his best stocks of 2010. His #1 listed January pick C-Span, I mean Seaspan - with a $12.75 target.

JAN 09/2010: Stock price was $10.30

(source: http://www.madmoneyfund.blogspot.com/ )

The guy needs help!  ???

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Crip1

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2010, 09:38:40 PM »

The guy needs help!  ???

<IV



Not as much as his followers do...

-Crip

lessthaniv

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2010, 07:43:54 AM »
http://joc.com/node/415886


Container Imports Increase after 30-Month Decline
Bill Mongelluzzo | Jan 11, 2010 6:14PM GMT
The Journal of Commerce Online - News Story

    * Ports/Terminals
    * | Container Shipping
    * | Maritime
    * | United States

Long downturn reverses in December; industry poised for growth

U.S. container ports finally turned the corner in December, with imports estimated to be higher than in December 2008. This would mark the first year-over-year monthly increase in containerized imports in two and one-half years.

According to the monthly Port Tracker published by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, year-over-year increases in imports are projected to continue for the next six months.

However, while growth rates compared to the same months in early 2009 will appear large, the rate of increase will be modest compared to the second half of 2009, said Ben Hackett.

"Although the first five months of 2010 are forecast to post large increases over the same period of the prior year (20.2 percent for the monitored West Coast ports and 13.1 percent for the monitored East Coast ports), growth rates for the prior five months are expected to be small," Port Tracker stated.

Although the exact December numbers have not yet been calculated, it appears that 2009 ended with a total import volume of 12.7 million 20-foot equivalent units for the 10 U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker. That represents a 17 percent decline from 2008 and the lowest annual total since 2003.

Nevertheless, it appears that the industry is poised for growth in 2010 as the U.S. consumer returns to the stores. "Retailers are still going to be cautious with their inventories, but we wouldn't see these increases in imports if stores weren't expecting sales to improve," said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.

"The U.S. economy is experiencing positive growth, with imports on the rise as a result of re-stocking and a rising consumer demand," Hackett said.

In related developments, Port Tracker noted that the active vessel capacity of the top 20 container lines dropped 2.4 percent in 2009. Capacity management will remain a key carrier strategy in 2010, and this could force freight rates to increase.

Carriers will continue other cost-cutting measures such as slow-steaming to reduce fuel consumption. This will result in longer transit times and will put pressure on supply-chain management.

Dan Smith, a principal with the Tioga Group, said prospects in 2010 for the intermodal railroads, trucking companies and freight intermediaries also appear to be positive.

"If the ocean carriers can be described as 'cautiously optimistic,' the U.S. railroads could be described as 'cautiously hungry,'" Smith stated in Port Tracker. He noted that both the western and eastern railroads are expanding their mainline capacity and inland hubs in anticipation of growing cargo volumes.

Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bmongelluzzo@joc.com.
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Partner24

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2010, 08:05:39 AM »
I mean, this guy is good at investing showbusiness. If you want to be entertained in investing, I guess he's a good guy to watch. That being said, if I want entertainment, I'll watch Lost or The Simpsons episodes or some french speaking episodes ;-)

Cheers!

Packer16

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2010, 10:20:55 PM »
Have you looked at some of the SSW competitors like DAC?  With the steady CFs in the business, DAC appears cheaper but it does have more debt.

Packer

lessthaniv

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2010, 10:00:49 AM »
Yes, similar yet different. Here are a few points of comparison to get you going:

1. DAC is #2 in size behind SSW.
2. DAC has historically had lower payout ratios choosing to retain more cashflow and thereby lowering their need to tap equity markets.
3. DAC has historically run with higher leverage.
4. DAC has shown they will take on higher risk by investing in older ships and playing the spot market a bit.
5. DAC is more dependent on the debt capital markets because of their model.
6. DAC has market value based loan covenants, which allow the company to borrow funds by attaching vessel values to charter-related cash flows although this drives the debt to capital ratios rather high. (North of 80%). They recieved waivers for breaking some loan covenants that I believe expire this fall.
7. DAC's fleet is older than SSW and the industry average.
8. DAC's  average age is 11-12 years, SSW average age is 5-6 years, industry average 8-9 years.
9. Older ships have higher costs (repair, insurance) and therefore leased at lower rates.
10. DAC had quite a few ships expiring as I recall. Greater than SSW when I compared and they are older ships.
11. DAC does not provide as much clarity around their charter rates or partners, as SSW. A little less than 2/3rd of their charter partners & charter rates are "unknowns" as they are bound by non-disclosure agreements. Makes you wonder how many "ZIM's" are counterparties?
12. Danaos advances funds to its Manager in order to pay for regular operating expenses. Unlike Seaspan, Danaos does not disclose
operating costs that are fixed over a given period.
13. Danaos only has 20% float. 80% owned by Coustas.

I think the valuation is lower because of the higher leverage, older ships, and general lack of disclosures compared to SSW.

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Daytripper

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2010, 03:56:47 PM »
Thanks for the info IV.  Looks like DAC started to take-off at about the same time as SSW.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=6m&s=DAC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=SSW

Long: BAC, AWLCF, FNMA, BFCF, GULTU <--uplisting to NASDAQ

lessthaniv

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2010, 03:11:17 PM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/business/global/11yuan.html?hpw

Healthy Jump in Chinese Exports Points to Recovery in World Trade

   
By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: February 10, 2010

HONG KONG — China said Wednesday that its exports climbed 21 percent in January from a year earlier, while imports surged 85.5 percent, the latest sign that world trade is starting to recover from the global financial crisis.
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 The Takeaway With Louise Story

China exports increased somewhat less than expected: The consensus of economists had been that exports increased 28 percent. But the healthy jump last month could still fuel further calls from the United States and the European Union for China to break the peg of its currency, the renminbi, to the U.S. dollar and allow the renminbi to appreciate.

China’s exports have recovered more rapidly than those of most countries, partly because the low value of the renminbi has kept Chinese goods relatively inexpensive in foreign markets.

The rebound in Chinese exports has been so rapid that some factory executives in the Pearl River delta region near Hong Kong have begun complaining of shortages of empty steel containers in which to ship their goods. Container shipping companies have begun to raise freight rates and remove discounts introduced in response to the financial crisis.

“With the export recovery taking hold more strongly, the outlook for export manufacturing, ports and container shipping sectors appears to be brighter, compared to last year,” Jing Ulrich, the chairman of China equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan, said in a research note.

Imports in January rose impressively, in line with economists’ expectations, because imports a year ago were so weak. Many Chinese export factories nearly stopped buying raw materials then as their orders dried up, but they have been restocking since late spring.

Exports and imports both benefited this year from the timing of Chinese New Year, which will be Sunday. It fell on Jan. 26 last year, and a weeklong holiday at the end of January last year helped curtail economic activity in China.

The China trade surplus was $14.17 billion last month, compared with $18.43 billion in December and $39.1 billion in January of last year, according to figures released Wednesday by China’s General Administration of Customs.

The trade statistics are the latest sign of China’s robust economic health, even as most of the rest of the world struggles to recover from the financial crisis.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced Tuesday that auto sales in China had surged 143 percent from the level of a year earlier and production had leaped 124 percent.

A few analysts had expressed fears that auto sales might be weak in January because the government had partially rescinded a sales tax cut for cars with engines of 1.6 liters or less. Having cut the tax to 5 percent a year ago, from 10 percent, the government raised it to 7.5 percent at the start of this year.

But car ownership remains extremely popular in China, where personal incomes are rising and consumer confidence is strong. Car dealerships in China have weeks-long waiting lists for many models, and months-long waiting lists for some of the most popular models.

The A-share index on the Shanghai stock exchange closed 1.1 percent higher Wednesday, after getting an early boost from the auto sales figures, which had been released after the close of trading on Tuesday.

China’s snapshot of its January trade data Wednesday came the morning after Germany released official data confirming that it had lost its status as the world’s leading exporter, as China overtook it.

Chinese exports amounted to $1.2 trillion in 2009, while German exports totaled $1.1 trillion, the German Federal Statistical Office said.

Aside from China’s sheer size, it was the global economic downturn that propelled China past Germany as the top exporter. Germany’s main trading partners, the United States and the European Union, cut back on investments, while consumers trimmed their spending and banks reined in lending.

Judy Dempsey contributed reporting from Berlin.
Sign in to Recommend More Articles in Business » A version of this article appeared in print on February 11, 2010, in The International Herald Tribune.
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lessthaniv

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Re: Seaspan Begins The Year With Promise
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2010, 08:26:45 AM »
Here is a blog I've come across this morning. The writer compares GSL,SSW,DAC.

http://harbor.typepad.com/analysis/2009/12/containerized-shipping.html

<IV