Attaching my SOTP. Doesn't scream "slap me in the face cheap". I'm also trying to keep in mind IRR vs. upside given the slow nature of land sales. Please let me know where I'm off base.
EDITED: corrected $106K in under contract proceeds to $106mm.
Under your mid case scenario, if you believe that they can eventually convert into a REIT and purge the taxes, then the Deferred tax liabilities go away which is a $10 difference. The subsurface deal was done in Feb of 2016, probably the worst time to structure minerals deals in the last few years. If you use the deal figure, then that's another $3 difference.
Regarding IRR and etc. Any thoughts on the fact that land does rot over time. It tends to appreciate. When there are less land parcels left over due to land sales, it tends to go for more. That's part of the charm of owning real estate/land from the owners perspective. You sit on it and it tends to appreciate over time (barring big 2008/2009 style great recession).
Nonetheless, I find the John/Mark and David Winters dynamic absolutely toxic.
Agree on pretty much everything you said.
Regarding the last piece, perhaps I can add some color. Take it with a grain on salt.
I've had personal, one on one interaction and communications with all three.
-Albright is incredibly bright, but an arrogant schmuck whose communication skills leave a lot to be desired. He's quietly deceiving, nasty when he gets push back, and always seems to be looking out for himself. Given how much money he makes, I don't believe for a second he needs to keep selling his stock every other week to pay off a margin account.
-Patten is a very genuine, nice guy. Through my most recent talks with him, I've gotten the feeling(just my interpretation) that he is kind of disappointed in the fact he is likely to lose his job over this Albright/Winters debacle. He gets a lot of whats going on, and given his qualifications, if anything IMO, is underpaid for the work he does. I wouldn't care if he were interim CEO til a replacement is found.
-David Winters is an interesting fellow. A little eccentric on top of being somewhat anti-social but all in all a very nice guy who seems to shoot straight. His performance often gets ridiculed, but he's cut from a certain type of value investor cloth. He's not afraid to stick to what he knows and doesn't really have any interest in chasing what's currently popular in search of performance. IMO he's kind of a Bruce Berkowitz but where Berkowitz tends to finds his way into "value" assets most initially view as outrageously risky and speculative, Winters finds good old conservative "value" staples to be his thing. The style and approach is basically the same though. Fitting their JOE/CTO positions and scenarios are almost mirror images.