Author Topic: CTL - CenturyLink  (Read 43895 times)


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Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Reply #180 on: March 14, 2018, 12:26:14 PM »
Apologies for if this is a dumb question but I am pretty new to this industry.

My understanding is that back in the depths of internet history people thought these companies would have pricing power as an ever growing amount of data was forced down a relatively fixed number of fibres. The data growth came through, but the technology kept improving to force more bits down the same fibre so pricing power never arrived.

I was struck by the stat in the Corvex presentation that data volumes will double 2016-2020. In other words, what took 40 years to devellop will take 4 years to double. With that kind of exponential growth, is there a tipping point (especially in a newly deregulated market) somewhere where technology and fibre additions can't keep up?

This possibility doesn't seem to have been discussed much here or on the L3 thread. That means it's either pie-in-the-sky, or people are so used to being disappointed that when pricing power comes, even if it is temporary, it will be a huge surprise. Which is it?

I'd really appreciate:
- Any data on this
- Explanations of technological limits in laymans terms
- Any estimates of capacity utilisation if they are relevant
- Information on how hard it really is to add capacity and what the bottlenecks are
- Any data on the impact of deregulation that goes past the headlines we've all read about how "the champagne corks will be popping at CTL".

I won't be quite so appreciative of aggressive opinions given without supporting data ;)

David Klein has a decent analysis and he's been at it with LVLT and now CTL for many years,

The key number I watch is the connected (enterprise) building count. I believe it stands at just over 100K. It doubled with the CTL merger. Around 2010, I remember that being less than 10K. (need to verify). They have gone 10 fold. The path to riches is as fast as the building count. At some building count number, they become a behemoth. Is it 500K or 1000K, I have no idea. Exact same thing as the last mile in residential, this was the boot the incumbents had on LVLT's throat as they were floating around with no strategy other than "build it and they will come".  Storey came in and went after enterprise building count. It makes sense, they have the biggest pipes and need large data to flow through them. Server farms, NYSE, Library of Congress, the Universities, the Military etc. They are all customers of CTL.