Author Topic: SSW - Seaspan  (Read 104805 times)

Uccmal

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #490 on: January 11, 2017, 09:22:24 AM »
When asked about the dividend on the last CC, I though they said that they would re-evaluate in February... so I'm not sure one should read too much into no drop as-of-yet.

No.  I figured if they cut it significantly the stock would pop.  Its popped anyways.  Mostly I think it was pushed down due to tax loss selling.  Its been coming back since the new year. 

For my purposes I have neen treating it as if the dividend is already cut 50%.  Anything above that is found money AFAIK. 
GARP tending toward value


Schwab711

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #491 on: January 11, 2017, 09:38:27 AM »
I'd think they'd be best served cutting the dividend completely. Either way, if current conditions continued indefinitely, I think SSW is solvent (assuming newbuilds are locked in for 17 years at today's spot rate). Of the charter owners out there, they are the best positioned at the moment.

I think SSW's value is going to depend heavily on the charters for the newbuilds being delivered this year.

Value^2

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #492 on: January 11, 2017, 10:11:10 AM »

doc75

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #493 on: February 01, 2017, 12:14:32 PM »
Anyone know what's going on with the 15% drop (and counting) today?

I know that they were going to revisit their dividend policy in February, but I haven't seen any news.

Schwab711

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #494 on: February 01, 2017, 04:02:12 PM »
MS initiated coverage at $4.50 so probably that

xtreeq

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #495 on: February 01, 2017, 10:08:11 PM »

Uccmal

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #496 on: February 02, 2017, 08:15:25 AM »
Short attack?  Led by Morgan Stanley. 
GARP tending toward value

Schwab711

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #497 on: February 02, 2017, 09:04:24 AM »
Short attack?  Led by Morgan Stanley.

It kind of feels that way...

If anyone has access to the report can you please post it or send it to me?

Supposedly the report mentions that SSW will have cumulative red ink over the next few years. I can't figure any way to arrive at that conclusion unless they assume newbuilds meant for Hanjin will be idle. These are the only containership sizes with positive supply/demand trends.  Everything is based on these newbuild charter rates, which I'm becoming more bullish on since reading about China/Korean state-sponsored companies getting direct and implicit backing. China/Korea seem to be self-incentivized to support the shippers, which would protect SSW from insolvency. Their state-sponsored companies have so much more to lose than SSW. I like the incentives backing SSW's bull case.

Without knowing the details, I think MS is being overly conservative to the point of unrealistic. SSW actually looks really cheap as a distressed debt-like position. I see nearly 10%+ CAGR as a conservative outcome.

xtreeq

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Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Reply #498 on: March 07, 2017, 11:57:13 AM »