Author Topic: JOE - ST. JOE CO  (Read 29235 times)

DooDiligence

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #70 on: April 26, 2018, 04:04:17 AM »
If the big "problem" with St. Joe is that almost all the land is inland, has no infrastructure, and is undeveloped, that should make them more-or-less immune from a hurricane...

St. Joe has some very nice waterfront / beachfront properties already developed.

The problem is that NWFL has a LOT of really CHEAP waterfront (some see this as an opportunity.)

You can get a smashing pad on the H2O for less than $700K (looking 4 a 2nd home?)

I still believe NWFL will eventually get a bump in values (it's too beautiful not to.)

10 years, 20 years WTFK when the area ever gets re-rated...
There is no beach front acreage according to the report.




https://www.joe.com
abc 2.6 | abev 1.6 | aapl 0.9 | bbh 3.3 | brk.b 9.4 | chtr 4.2 | cvs 5.7 | dva 5.5 | dis 4.1 | ew 2.1 | gpc 2.8 | mo 6.1 | nvo 5.1 | sftby 2.3 | vde 4.2

(%'s held @ cost, PV allos are slightly 2 significantly higher. includes a slowly dwindling cash pile.)

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thepupil

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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #72 on: May 18, 2018, 10:02:22 AM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

DooDiligence

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #73 on: May 18, 2018, 01:10:14 PM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

Sounds about right.

I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment.
abc 2.6 | abev 1.6 | aapl 0.9 | bbh 3.3 | brk.b 9.4 | chtr 4.2 | cvs 5.7 | dva 5.5 | dis 4.1 | ew 2.1 | gpc 2.8 | mo 6.1 | nvo 5.1 | sftby 2.3 | vde 4.2

(%'s held @ cost, PV allos are slightly 2 significantly higher. includes a slowly dwindling cash pile.)

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Gregmal

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #74 on: May 18, 2018, 02:45:36 PM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

Sounds about right.

I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment.

I would definitely agree. Buy the actual real estate.

I've looked at JOE for a long time. I actually thought to myself about 6 months ago,"hey JOE is starting to look interesting". That said, it's basically just a larger CTO, with lower quality assets, in a less desirable area, with the same problems, and a decade plus of catching up to do. It's at best just a good trade vehicle here. I don't think you have much downside and you have Berkowitz implementing an aggressive buyback at your back. So trade the fluctuations, which is what I think any competent owner of this(outside of Bruce) is doing. The Kerrisdale thesis is basically just an updated version of Einhorn's short, and the SA article is basically just a wordy reiteration of the hopes and dreams that have gotten Fairholme stuck in quicksand.

Spekulatius

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Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Reply #75 on: May 18, 2018, 03:05:16 PM »
Land development / MPC companies need to reach a critical mass of development to catalyze value creation. St Joe hasn't yet reached this point, and it's unclear to me what would cause this to change in any reasonable time frame. I think Nitor is too bullish, and Kerrisdale is too bearish. It seems more likely that the company continues to slowly meander along, neither creating or destroying much value.

Sounds about right.


Or buy MLP. Hawaiian Real Estate is red hot in some areas ::)
I think that buying a nice waterfront home (high & dry if possible) anywhere in NW Florida is a much better investment.

I would definitely agree. Buy the actual real estate.

I've looked at JOE for a long time. I actually thought to myself about 6 months ago,"hey JOE is starting to look interesting". That said, it's basically just a larger CTO, with lower quality assets, in a less desirable area, with the same problems, and a decade plus of catching up to do. It's at best just a good trade vehicle here. I don't think you have much downside and you have Berkowitz implementing an aggressive buyback at your back. So trade the fluctuations, which is what I think any competent owner of this(outside of Bruce) is doing. The Kerrisdale thesis is basically just an updated version of Einhorn's short, and the SA article is basically just a wordy reiteration of the hopes and dreams that have gotten Fairholme stuck in quicksand.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.