Author Topic: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified  (Read 211920 times)

stahleyp

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #630 on: January 17, 2019, 01:06:38 PM »
I like Keith Smith and respect him a lot but I don't know how much I buy this argument.

"It is not unreasonable to assume that by 2022 Bonhoeffer gets its assets under management up to $50 million."

So, in 3 years, it's going to go from $14 million to $50 million? Doesn't Arquitos have less than $20 million now (with pretty great performance, by the way) over 6.5 years?

Running your personal money and a fund is a lot different. I'm not saying Keith won't achieve 30% a year and $50 million in aum by 2022 but it's not a bet I'd make. Growing aum is hard especially when the fund starts off on a negative.
Paul


Spekulatius

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #631 on: January 17, 2019, 03:16:41 PM »
I donít think itís a good idea that the funds owned by SYTE also hold a large concentration of their assets in SYTE stock, but that has been stated before, I believe.

i do think that SYTE has suffered permanent impairment with their HVC, real estate and probably even with their asset business. For me, the overhead is the killer for these small operations. If I had the make a guess, the Alluvial part is the most likely to grind out consistent Alpha and grow assets, also it might be limited on how much it can grow without abandoning the microcap focus.
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Tim Eriksen

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #632 on: January 17, 2019, 03:42:30 PM »
I donít think itís a good idea that the funds owned by SYTE also hold a large concentration of their assets in SYTE stock, but that has been stated before, I believe.

i do think that SYTE has suffered permanent impairment with their HVC, real estate and probably even with their asset business. For me, the overhead is the killer for these small operations. If I had the make a guess, the Alluvial part is the most likely to grind out consistent Alpha and grow assets, also it might be limited on how much it can grow without abandoning the microcap focus.

Am I missing something?  I have never seen anything that stated that either Alluvial, Bonhoeffer, or Willow Oak Select owned any shares of SYTE, let alone a large concentration.  SYTE does not have any ownership of Arquitos, just a revenue interest in exchange for administrative costs. 

Spekulatius

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #633 on: January 17, 2019, 04:05:15 PM »
I donít think itís a good idea that the funds owned by SYTE also hold a large concentration of their assets in SYTE stock, but that has been stated before, I believe.

i do think that SYTE has suffered permanent impairment with their HVC, real estate and probably even with their asset business. For me, the overhead is the killer for these small operations. If I had the make a guess, the Alluvial part is the most likely to grind out consistent Alpha and grow assets, also it might be limited on how much it can grow without abandoning the microcap focus.

Am I missing something?  I have never seen anything that stated that either Alluvial, Bonhoeffer, or Willow Oak Select owned any shares of SYTE, let alone a large concentration.  SYTE does not have any ownership of Arquitos, just a revenue interest in exchange for administrative costs.

Itís me who is missing something. ::) The revenue interest would be just like owning an IDR interest like a GP and is not an ďownershipĒ in a common sense.
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Deepdive

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #634 on: January 21, 2019, 08:18:22 AM »
I like Keith Smith and respect him a lot but I don't know how much I buy this argument.

"It is not unreasonable to assume that by 2022 Bonhoeffer gets its assets under management up to $50 million."

So, in 3 years, it's going to go from $14 million to $50 million? Doesn't Arquitos have less than $20 million now (with pretty great performance, by the way) over 6.5 years?

Running your personal money and a fund is a lot different. I'm not saying Keith won't achieve 30% a year and $50 million in aum by 2022 but it's not a bet I'd make. Growing aum is hard especially when the fund starts off on a negative.

The first $10 million is the hardest to raise.  Bonhoeffer allocates to 20 positions while Arquitos tend to hold 4-5 positions that drive all the returns.  A 15% CAGR from Bonhoeffer is much more indicative of skill in stock picking.  I think $50 million is doable for Keith.     

stahleyp

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #635 on: January 22, 2019, 07:40:33 AM »
I like Keith Smith and respect him a lot but I don't know how much I buy this argument.

"It is not unreasonable to assume that by 2022 Bonhoeffer gets its assets under management up to $50 million."

So, in 3 years, it's going to go from $14 million to $50 million? Doesn't Arquitos have less than $20 million now (with pretty great performance, by the way) over 6.5 years?

Running your personal money and a fund is a lot different. I'm not saying Keith won't achieve 30% a year and $50 million in aum by 2022 but it's not a bet I'd make. Growing aum is hard especially when the fund starts off on a negative.

The first $10 million is the hardest to raise.  Bonhoeffer allocates to 20 positions while Arquitos tend to hold 4-5 positions that drive all the returns.  A 15% CAGR from Bonhoeffer is much more indicative of skill in stock picking.  I think $50 million is doable for Keith.   

I'm not so sure. With the initial set up, you're investing with a guy who's averaged 30% who's accepting money for the first time. Now, there's actually a performance record of the fund. With that said, I think he can certainly get to $50 million or more eventually but over the next 3 years seems a little far-fetched.

I'd like to see Packer do well though. He's a very solid person.
Paul

JayGatsby

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #636 on: January 22, 2019, 11:44:59 AM »
Was reading the letters on Mt. Melrose. Easy to sit here and be a backseat driver, but shouldn't the company just be a private asset management firm?

Quote
The budget that we put together in the summer literally had over 65,000 input cells.

Wasn't the strategy for Mt. Melrose to let Jeff do what he does without micromanaging him? The capital allocation issues of putting money into cash yields versus slow appreciation properties is a foreseeable board discussion, and one on which it seems like they could have come to agreement. So it seems like the bigger issue was probably the level of corporateness. There's tons of competition for good operators to sell to, and at this point I don't see why a good operator would want to partner with and sell to SYTE? The public company stuff alone would deter most people.

gfp

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #637 on: February 25, 2019, 05:49:25 PM »
In case anyone is interested - Willow Oak published a roundtable discussion (featuring some CoBF folks) -

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2511717cdf1bae9a0638c942a/files/2638fbd6-6008-4352-b88b-c438063564b5/Willow_Oak_Roundtable_February_2019_Final.pdf

Jurgis

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #638 on: February 26, 2019, 08:48:38 AM »
In case anyone is interested - Willow Oak published a roundtable discussion (featuring some CoBF folks) -

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/2511717cdf1bae9a0638c942a/files/2638fbd6-6008-4352-b88b-c438063564b5/Willow_Oak_Roundtable_February_2019_Final.pdf

Can this be posted either as attachment or on some other site? Accessing mailchimp is a pain (can't access it repeatedly). Thanks
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John Hjorth

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Re: SYTE - Enterprise Diversified
« Reply #639 on: February 26, 2019, 08:54:25 AM »
Good idea, Jurgis, & done.
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