Author Topic: TDG - Transdigm  (Read 136229 times)

Liberty

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #100 on: May 20, 2015, 07:25:00 AM »
So, how do you know that the reverse is happening at the moment?

They periodically disclose how much content they have on various airframes, and the numbers seem to be going up with new ones. The numbers also go up over time with acquisitions, of course.

Here's a recent slide:



The note at the bottom says that these numbers don't include the acquisitions since june 2013, so the actual numbers are higher.
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loganc

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #101 on: May 20, 2015, 11:37:55 AM »
Really appreciate all of the feedback Schwab and Liberty.  This is all really helpful.

Phaceliacapital

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #102 on: May 21, 2015, 02:07:15 AM »
So, how do you know that the reverse is happening at the moment?

They periodically disclose how much content they have on various airframes, and the numbers seem to be going up with new ones. The numbers also go up over time with acquisitions, of course.

Here's a recent slide:



The note at the bottom says that these numbers don't include the acquisitions since june 2013, so the actual numbers are higher.

Do you know if PCP provides these kind of graphs?
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Liberty

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #103 on: May 21, 2015, 05:26:51 AM »
Not sure, I haven't looked at PCP in a little while.
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orion

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #104 on: May 21, 2015, 06:01:43 AM »
Quote
"It's the largest cycle in the aerospace industry we have ever seen," Sterne Agee CRT analyst Peter Arment told IBD. "Boeing and Airbus have eight-year order backlogs totaling over 12,000 planes."
The backlog has never been that long before, Arment said. "It's usually been only a few years."

http://news.investors.com/business-industry-snapshot/051515-752854-aerospace-climbs-into-a-supercycle.htm?p=full

Jurgis

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #105 on: May 21, 2015, 10:26:58 AM »
Quote
"It's the largest cycle in the aerospace industry we have ever seen," Sterne Agee CRT analyst Peter Arment told IBD. "Boeing and Airbus have eight-year order backlogs totaling over 12,000 planes."
The backlog has never been that long before, Arment said. "It's usually been only a few years."

http://news.investors.com/business-industry-snapshot/051515-752854-aerospace-climbs-into-a-supercycle.htm?p=full

And what comes at the end of supercycle?  ;)
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Liberty

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #106 on: May 21, 2015, 10:30:24 AM »
Quote
"It's the largest cycle in the aerospace industry we have ever seen," Sterne Agee CRT analyst Peter Arment told IBD. "Boeing and Airbus have eight-year order backlogs totaling over 12,000 planes."
The backlog has never been that long before, Arment said. "It's usually been only a few years."

http://news.investors.com/business-industry-snapshot/051515-752854-aerospace-climbs-into-a-supercycle.htm?p=full

And what comes at the end of supercycle?  ;)

All those planes keep flying for decades and require parts. TDG doesn't make its money on OEMs anyway.

Unless you don't think the Chinese and Indians and Brazilians and Indonesians, etc, have as much a desire to fly as everyone else, I don't think RPMs are going down any time soon.
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giofranchi

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #107 on: June 04, 2015, 07:43:18 AM »
I have just established an 8% position, which I will gradually increase over time, or aggressively increase should the stock price decline.

I like the fact TDG is the most successful of the so-called “platform companies” not owned by Ackman yet. Therefore, no direct correlation to my PSH investment.

Cheers,

Gio
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Liberty

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #108 on: June 04, 2015, 08:09:33 AM »
I have just established an 8% position, which I will gradually increase over time, or aggressively increase should the stock price decline.

I like the fact TDG is the most successful of the so-called “platform companies” not owned by Ackman yet. Therefore, no direct correlation to my PSH investment.

Cheers,

Gio

Welcome to the club :)
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muscleman

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Re: TDG - Transdigm
« Reply #109 on: June 04, 2015, 08:40:44 AM »
I have just established an 8% position, which I will gradually increase over time, or aggressively increase should the stock price decline.

I like the fact TDG is the most successful of the so-called “platform companies” not owned by Ackman yet. Therefore, no direct correlation to my PSH investment.

Cheers,

Gio

Hi Gio,
    What's your valuation on TDG? It seems to me that the FCF multiple is close to 20 but the FCF annual increase rate is only in the 8-10% range.