Author Topic: TGT - Target  (Read 11714 times)

Junto

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2017, 05:11:45 AM »
There is a lot of disruption in retail but I think the market reaction is a bit overstated. We are not talking about a highly levered retailer here, or a high PE ratio. Reminds me of the haters on Best Buy. I may be early on this one but relatively small position to overall portfolio at this point. I don't expect to see a dividend cut and have confidence in the ingenuity and work ethic of my fellow Minnesotan's to get this retailer also turned in the right direction.

A little backyard bias but at 4.36% yield to wait when 10 year is at 2.56% and a PE at around 12. I think it is acceptable risk.


GregS

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #21 on: March 29, 2017, 01:48:04 PM »
Retail = insta-no

I'm hearing this a lot lately.  I think I'm going to sharpen my pencil on retail, with Target at the top of the list.

Junto

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #22 on: March 29, 2017, 04:04:31 PM »
I have a full position now after it dipping around $53.

nafregnum

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2017, 04:48:17 PM »
TGT is looking good on the little screener at dividendgeek.com.  They've raised dividend for 49 years, and payout ratio is 47% so it doesn't seem like the dividend is in question. 

http://www.dividendgeek.com/undervalued-stocks/

I remember thinking TGT was probably cheap around the time they closed the Canada stores, but I didn't buy any at the time, then I felt like a thumbsucker as I watched it gain 30%.

My burning question: If WMT bought Jet.com to try to compete with Amazon and then got dropped by BRK, would TGT also be dropped by BRK if it had been in the portfolio.  Are WMT and TGT being tempted to join the race to the bottom price by Amazon?  I don't want to ignore the way the long term wind is blowing, against retail...  I have a Target Superstore a few blocks from home, and shop there all the time.  I actually prefer it over the local Walmart because it's cleaner (and admittedly closer) ... are those long term advantages that will hold out for Target?

There's no reason to believe TGT is going to be the next Sears is there?  I think that sounds pretty crazy to say it, but if there are any interested bears who would argue that perspective I'd love to hear it.  I'm thinking of buying some now just because it feels like there's pessimism and there's a solid dividend and I'm not seeing the justification for the pessimism except that it seems like what Walmart announced a year or two ago...  Is there anything else scary that you guys know about?

Junto

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2017, 09:07:07 AM »
I am surprised that this hasn't been a larger conversation topic. I like what management has been doing the past quarter and I think the partnership with Fixer Upper HGTV stars Joanna and Chip will also be a positive.

Recently I have noticed a major improvement in traffic in my local store. Not sure how much is seasonal traffic but I will say my wife had a positive review of their new brand roll out i.e. $$$ spent.

Numbers look acceptable, traffic flow is turning, trading still at a good price point. 

Others?

solobz

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2017, 01:35:43 PM »
I've traded the name around this year but no current position.. Valuation attractive at face value with the divvy and buyback. Tempting name as a cannibal.

Don't own it now though. Kind of feels like dead money at $60. Seems cheap at 13x earnings, but OTOH I don't see a no-growth retailer with small/poor ecommerce biz getting re-rated to a 16-18x multiple anytime soon in this environment. Say they execute and get 15x on 4.50 consensus EPS over next year.. you're getting a 12.5% + 4% yield..16% isn't shabby. Also think downside pretty low ($50?).  But equally likely imo is $56 on 13x $4.30 EPS forever.

Business wise, worried about grocery and margins and competition. management seems ok, but not really doing anything to counter walmart/jet or amazon. capex going to store refreshes and ecommerce experience is pretty meh.  I think the HGTV Magnolia line should do really well. More private label clothing probably a +'ve. Does this offset other pressures? Idk.

Junto

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #26 on: January 12, 2018, 12:46:03 PM »
Great past week. Always nice to see. Was a great value play. Now need to revisit current valuation to prospects.

bizaro86

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2018, 12:53:53 PM »
Went long here at $55 or so around the same time as many in the thread, but am getting nervous after the run up. I had initially told myself this was a keep forever quality business, and I bought Costco at the same time, about which I still feel that way.

However, a recent trip to the US where we rented a condo was interesting. We bought our groceries for the week in advance on the Walmart website, and friendly employees loaded them into our rental car for us.

The Walmart was clean and inviting when I went there later for more milk. I also stopped at a Target on my way to a hike for bottles water, and found it dirty, disorganized, and lacking in price stickers,  which always annoys me.

The Walmart experience was leaps and bounds better, and I would actively avoid Target the next time (as a shopper).

That I'd all anecdotal, but my question to the board is do you feel Target has a moat that will earn a reasonable return of capital over time?


bizaro86

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Re: TGT - Target
« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2018, 04:38:55 PM »
That's what worries me. If I'm lucky instead of good I'll take it, but would prefer not to press that...

(I might be, since one of my best positions in 2017 was FRMO, which went up for a reason anathema to why I bought it...)