Author Topic: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.  (Read 28638 times)

Packer16

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2018, 12:01:51 PM »
There is more support for the 10x multiple as a direct comp (Knot Offshore) has a higher EBITDA multiple & there are one 2 competitors in the shuttle tanker market.  Although Seaspan has excellent management & counterparties, container lease & shipping much more competitive than shuttle tankers.

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kab60

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2018, 12:06:49 PM »
Just took a quick look. What's contracted backlog and contract length like? JDP writes 5 years, but I couldn't find it.

Packer16

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2018, 12:10:44 PM »
It is detailed in the 10-K & it varies depending upon ship type and arrangement.

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walkie518

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2018, 12:40:28 PM »
Better to review more recent filings, but in July 2017, Brookfield marked contacts at 4 years and they expected extensions

https://bbu.brookfield.com/en/press-releases/2017/07-27-2017-035001869

petec

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2018, 12:58:21 PM »
Intrigued by this. Just starting DD.

Not immediately obviously dirt cheap on their nonGAAP DCF measure. At first glance I can't justify the claims linked above of 25-20% FCF yields. How does DCF inflect from here?

Maintenance capex looks stupidly high (p10 of this: https://www.teekay.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/TOO-Q2-18-ER-Presentation-v_FINAL_FINAL.pdf).

Much more work to do!


Packer16

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2018, 01:48:00 PM »
There a few things that are going on here.  You have underearning FPSO/FSO assets that are being provided to some users on a temporary price reduction basis.  These price reductions should be unwound in 2019.  You also have some assets that are not generating any revenue.  These include some assets that may never generate revenues but if oil stays high there is a chance & finally the re-investment opportunity from FPSO/FSOs to shuttle tankers should be able to generate the before mentioned 20/25% DCF yield on today's prices.  The depreciation is high due to restating shuttle tanker life from 25 to 20 years and depreciation associated with some assets TOO would not invest in if they were investing today.

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petec

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2018, 01:54:17 PM »
Thanks. Aside from the obvious (20F etc) what would you advise I read?

Packer16

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2018, 01:59:21 PM »
Take a look at the BBU disclosures as they purchased this entity as one of their higher expected return investments.  TOO also discloses a quarterly DCF bridge but it is quite noisey with all of the FPSO/FSO activity.  There is also a Shuttle Tanker stand alone financials on the TOO websites which provides some insight into that business.

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petec

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2018, 11:27:43 PM »
Thank you.

Snorky

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2018, 12:40:44 AM »
I do not see any positive FCF at all. What i am missing ?