Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 415947 times)

Palantir

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TSLA - Tesla Motors
« on: May 31, 2013, 11:45:02 AM »
We need a new stock to have very detailed, mindless flame wars over. I feel Tesla Motors presents a great opportunity in that regard. This is a fast growing tech stock, and I think this is going to be basically like the next Apple or something.
My Portfolio: AMZN, PAGP, FSLR, OKE, PYPL, RHT, MSFT


Edward

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2013, 12:00:07 PM »
Let the flame wars begin!  ;D

This is a small luxury auto manufacturer. It has one plant in the US with an annual capacity of 400K units, of which they are using 20K. They have some intellectual property but nothing too fancy. Electric cars are not very complicated to build as opposed to good engines and transmissions which are. The company isn't profitable - currently about break even.

All this is supposedly worth 12B$, god knows how. My guess - Elon Musk must be it. If he leaves for any reason this company loses 90% of its valuation overnight.

Regarding the Apple comparisons. An auto manufacturer has years of lead time to get a car into the market, and growth can never be huge because of the capital costs. Also, they have intentions to grow in the sub 40K$ car market, which is populated by some serious competitors (GM, Renault-Nissan). This doesn't bode well for future profitability.

At this price, this company is priced for absolute perfection at least 10 years into the future.


ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2013, 12:17:19 PM »
There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.

Aberhound

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2013, 04:00:24 PM »
I am trying to understand what moat Tesla will have in 2014 onwards. The stock is currently overvalued but what valuation will apply in 2014 and onwards?

In 2014 when Tesla supercharger stations cover 80% of Canada and US major routes with free charging what will competing electric car companies offer? Does Tesla allow other electric cars to use their supercharger stations or is that even possible?

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharge

Has anyone every used a Municipal owned charging station and had a good experience? Public sector services usually can't compete. Are there other private sector charging stations that are any good?

Once the $40,000 sedan is available won't the lifetime cost of the car be much less than gas and diesel vehicles? Lifetime cost is hard to determine because presumably Tesla will have a better battery in ten years when replacement is required and we don't know if Tesla will charge a high or a low price for the replacement. Electric cars should last much longer than gas and diesel cars. Is SolarCity going to offer free home charging for Tesla vehicles?

No one has ever succeeded in launching a new volume car manufacturer due to the economies of scale and government regulatory obstacles. Presumably high volume production begins with the $40,000 price level car. I haven't seen Tesla's plans for building the high volume plants. The current plants don't seem suited for high volume production. I note that Ford's plants in Brazil are far more efficient than their US plants due to greater flexibility. Does Tesla have a plan for more efficient high volume production? When the expensive high volume plants are built won't there be dilution especially considering that the bond bubble probably will not last long enough to finance them (but if they succeed Tesla will have a good moat).

Telsa's sales model without dealers is radically different. Saturn's similar one price policy was popular.

Tesla's maintenance packages are different with lots of fixed price options up to 100,000 miles. Currently dealers make much of their money on warranty servicing. Will Tesla capture that profit? Electric cars require much less maintenance so the fixed price options might be extremely profitable. Will they adopt a cheap razor and expensive razor blades sales model?

Too much speculation is required for me. I watch with interest there is the possibility that Tesla can develop a good long term moat similar to how Geico beats the traditional insurers who are stuck with the independent agent model. I don't see how the existing car companies can switch to Tesla's new methods.

The insider trading stats should include a section to report holdings by Congress and workers who are exempt from insider trading rules. I bet Tesla's stock price will set records for volatility because they are so dependent on government regulatory policy. It will be interesting to see if their stock goes up with democrat administrations and down with republican administrations. Maybe they should build their next plant in a Republican state.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2013, 04:37:46 PM »
In 2014 when Tesla supercharger stations cover 80% of Canada and US major routes with free charging what will competing electric car companies offer? Does Tesla allow other electric cars to use their supercharger stations or is that even possible?

Only the Model S by Tesla can use the supercharger network.

Not even the Tesla Roadster can use the superchargers.

They simply aren't capable of receiving that much electrical current -- so as they are currently designed, it's impossible for the competing electric cars (all of them) to charge as quickly as a Model S can recharge at a supercharger station.

They are also planning on upgrading the supercharger stations to feed even more current to the Model S (the Model S is designed to handle more current than superchargers presently provide).


ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2013, 06:07:14 PM »
Incidentally, SolarCity sells a battery backup system for homes to their residential consumers.

The batteries they sell are made by Tesla.

I wonder how much they cost:

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx


plato1976

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2013, 06:08:32 PM »
sorry I may be retarded in reading the subtle implication in English;
but 2&3 ? Eur and Asia already saturated ?

There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2013, 06:24:52 PM »
sorry I may be retarded in reading the subtle implication in English;
but 2&3 ? Eur and Asia already saturated ?

There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.

They have sold zero, zilch, nada in Europe and Asia thus far. 

(I was trying to be as sarcastic as possible in the original post. ).

Supercharger stations only cost $250,000 to build.  They just sold a ton of stock to the public.  They can build this network!

ZenaidaMacroura

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2013, 06:29:49 PM »
sorry I may be retarded in reading the subtle implication in English;
but 2&3 ? Eur and Asia already saturated ?

There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.
Sarcasm, as in they have not saurated europe and asia at all.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2013, 06:37:36 PM »
The issue is that you almost never drive more than 200 miles in a day.  Only on road trips.  But day in day out, dropping off kids, going to your job, those days you never do more than even 100 miles.

So you plug in your car and almost never go to the gas station.  Always a full "tank" in the morning"

Road trip?  Either own a second car (gasoline or diesel) or rent one.

And no visits for oil changes and no need to have the vehicle serviced.  It's kind of a hassle having multiple cars and keeping up with the oil changes and service visits.

The Model S is also the fastest of the sports sedans (faster than BMW M5 to 100 mph) and has incredible storage capacity (due to not having an engine in the front, there is a second trunk in the front).  And faster than Porche Carrera 4s to 60mps.  And that's a little wimpy car with no seating capacity and no trunk space.  The Model S can haul 7 people around (two kids in the rear facing third row seats).


« Last Edit: May 31, 2013, 06:41:03 PM by ERICOPOLY »