Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 535320 times)

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2620 on: December 05, 2018, 02:15:06 AM »
As far as I'am concerned, nothing has really changed fundamentally. When looking into the interest earned in Q3, the average cash balance throughout the quarter was below 1,5 billion, which shows that they definitely engaged in some window dressing activities at the end of the quarter. One theory why they sell most vehicles during the last month of the quarter instead of smoothing deliveries over the quarter is so that they can hold onto the sales tax, registration fees, etc at quarter end.

So far in Q4, S & X sales seem to be declining in China and Europe and M3 sales seem to be more or less flattish with Q3, so I am definitely curious why the share price has kept up at these levels. In any case, Tesla has every incentive to keep the share price around / above 360 in order to convert the convertibles and not have to pay them in cash in March.

With the risk of repeating myself, I am still convinced that brand equity is declining:
- there are more than 100 lawsuits registered against Tesla (ao lots of 'lemon' lawsuits)
- in addition to the M3 built quality issues noted in the past (panel gaps, paint issues, etc), it appears there are also issues with cold weather (freezing door handles) due to insufficient testing in different weather circumstances (https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-cold-weather-flaws/)
- more are more people are complaining regarding waiting lines at Supercharger stations
- more and more complaints regarding service issues

The problem is that most early adopters (S & X buyers) were used to getting a special treatment from Tesla, which definitely stopped when Tesla started mass producing the M3. It does not seem a good strategy to pay less attention to your high margin customers when competition is going to increase for these products (e-tron, i-pace, etc).



Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2621 on: December 05, 2018, 02:56:15 PM »
Interesting how it seems like you could have gone short just about any stock other than TSLA and done well lately...almost as if entering crowded trades does not have a good risk-reward setup...  ::)

Based on the recent quarter's results, the company will likely have the cash to pay the bonds, regardless of the closing stock price when they mature next year.

And dozens of lawsuits and dozens of people complaining online? Must surely not be availability bias (after all, the media/social media/internet commenters etc are equally likely to report on customers unhappy with their F150 trucks as they are unhappy Tesla customers...). Clearly looking at customer complaints and lawsuit counts against a highly polarizing, sensationalized topic like Tesla/Musk must give you an objective picture of the company and its product...

Your definition of brand equity is definitely not my definition of the concept.

Investmentacct

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2622 on: December 05, 2018, 03:10:02 PM »
Why are the shorts covering?  You make it sound so obvious.

Irony: California breeze started to reach other parts of nation.

SHDL

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2623 on: December 05, 2018, 06:58:18 PM »
I sold my puts promptly after the 10-Q came out, and I imagine people like me have contributed to the recent price action.  For me this was a purely quantitative bet on a short term liquidity crunch, so closing my position was a no brainer given the updated numbers. 

Given the circumstances, I think this is now one of those stocks that will continue to trade based purely on people’s expectations about the company’s eventual profitability and nothing else.  And if so, the stock price will remain elevated — and may even keep going up — as long as there are enough bulls around.  It’s true that we will eventually know whether the bulls are right or not, but (a) we may have to wait a VERY long time before we do, and (b) the company may have transformed itself into an entirely different beast by then.  That IMO is enough to make this an extremely difficult short. 

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2624 on: December 06, 2018, 12:23:51 PM »
https://electrek.co/2018/12/06/tesla-battery-report/

Quote
Neoen, the owner of the giant Tesla battery system in South Australia, released a new report for the first full year of operation and revealed that the energy storage system saved about $40 million over the last 12 months.

Tesla’s 100MW/129MWh Powerpack project in South Australia provide the same grid services as peaker plants, but cheaper, quicker, and with zero-emissions, through its battery system. [...]

They contracted Aurecon to evaluate the impact of the project and they estimate that the “battery allows annual savings in the wholesale market approaching $40 million by increased competition and removal of 35 MW local FCAS constraint.”

It is particularly impressive when you consider that the massive Tesla Powerpack system cost only $66 million, according to another report from Neoen.

$40m saved in a year for a project that cost $66m. That's some pretty good ROI!

And li-ion battery prices keep fallling... Guess we'll see a lot more of these, starting with places where there are large swings in power costs between peak and off-peak and where power costs the most, and over time to other places down the curve...
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Interesting podcast on aging research

Leverage Capabilities

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2625 on: December 06, 2018, 02:59:23 PM »

johnny

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2626 on: December 06, 2018, 05:41:11 PM »
Upfront: I'm short.

Marco Arment, a software developer that is well-known in the Apple Dev community, who has been a strong evangelist for Tesla for a few years (BMW convert), recently went public with a very big complaint, calling for Elon to be fired.

Story goes like this: He was a Model S lessee, and towards the end of Q3 got an offer that basically was some form of early trade-up that would forgive the remaining payments of his trade in.

So he did that, got the new car, gave them the old, and claims that subsequently the lease payments (US Bank) for the original car never stopped. Bank said Tesla had given them no information about the car being turned in, so he has continued to pay and for the past three months has apparently gotten nowhere. Specifically claims that every contact he has with Tesla involves a promised follow-up that never occurs.

He tells the story in full on a podcast. Story begins at around 1:44:00:

http://atp.fm/episodes/303

Maybe the most interesting thing about this is that when he tweeted about this, he says other people got in touch and told him they had parallel experiences.

Wondering what you guys think about this. Does it seem like a reasonable "growing pains" issue to you?

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2627 on: December 06, 2018, 05:42:40 PM »
Tesla is Said to Plan Using Stock-Cash Mix to Pay March Debt

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/tesla-is-said-to-plan-using-stock-cash-mix-to-pay-off-march-debt?srnd=premium

Wow--opting out of full equity conversion. Guess that means they're not worried about their cash position a few months from now. Wonder how that could be when their recent results must surely be attributed to "window dressing".

Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 05:46:48 PM by Dalal.Holdings »

Lakesider

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2628 on: December 06, 2018, 06:02:41 PM »

Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.

I think you are kidding yourself. I bet that in 5 years time every manufacturer will have a comparable quality product. These products are updated yearly, this is a fiercely competitive market. The competition will get better, the models they have now are beta tests for the future.


Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2629 on: December 06, 2018, 07:04:02 PM »

Jaguar I pace, Porche Mission E, etc will end up in the same graveyard as the Palm Pre, Microsoft Zune, Blackberry Playbook, etc. When it becomes apparent that those products can't measure up to Tesla on real world sales basis, shorts will be in a world of hurt. It has to do with "brand equity" and real chops when it comes to software development, UI, and overall product experience at Tesla unlike any EV automaker.

I think you are kidding yourself. I bet that in 5 years time every manufacturer will have a comparable quality product. These products are updated yearly, this is a fiercely competitive market. The competition will get better, the models they have now are beta tests for the future.

Yeah, that's why the Chevy Bolt and Volt are doing so well. These traditional automakers are anything but "fierce" when it comes to new technology. They've had >10 years to get their act together in vehicle software/user interface and their stuff is garbage compared to Tesla's. The term "dinosaurs" might be more appropriate.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2018, 07:05:59 PM by Dalal.Holdings »