Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 563039 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2690 on: January 30, 2019, 04:50:19 PM »
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.


A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2691 on: January 31, 2019, 01:40:20 AM »
We'll see Spekulatius. Are you still convinced that the short thesis is broken?

Did not have time to listen to the Conference call and go through all the details yet, but some elements seem very sus:
- taking into account the interest income earned over Q4, the average cash balance throughout the quarter was about 1,5 billion. Tesla definitely engaged again in some window dressing at the end of the quarter
- accounts receivable stayed at the 1 billion level - in Q3 Deepak indicated on the call that this was due to the quarter ending in a weekend and Tesla not being able to cash in the customers cheques. Now the quarter ended on a Monday. 1 billion, that is 15.000 Model 3s at an ASP of 60k. Isn't that the number of missing registered cars?
- cap ex was well below depreciation and amortisation in Q4. Is this a growth company?

And ow yeah, one more thing, the CFO leaves and is replaced by a 34 year old who has never held the role of CFO. Are they serious?
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 01:48:20 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

Ballinvarosig Investors

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2692 on: January 31, 2019, 02:32:04 AM »
And ow yeah, one more thing, the CFO leaves and is replaced by a 34 year old who has never held the role of CFO. Are they serious?
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Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2693 on: January 31, 2019, 03:53:25 AM »
We'll see Spekulatius. Are you still convinced that the short thesis is broken?

Did not have time to listen to the Conference call and go through all the details yet, but some elements seem very sus:
- taking into account the interest income earned over Q4, the average cash balance throughout the quarter was about 1,5 billion. Tesla definitely engaged again in some window dressing at the end of the quarter
- accounts receivable stayed at the 1 billion level - in Q3 Deepak indicated on the call that this was due to the quarter ending in a weekend and Tesla not being able to cash in the customers cheques. Now the quarter ended on a Monday. 1 billion, that is 15.000 Model 3s at an ASP of 60k. Isn't that the number of missing registered cars?
- cap ex was well below depreciation and amortisation in Q4. Is this a growth company?

And ow yeah, one more thing, the CFO leaves and is replaced by a 34 year old who has never held the role of CFO. Are they serious?

I believe the thesis that TSLA adds a Q to its ticket within a short period of time is broken, so in that sense, the short thesis is broken. I would touch the stock with a ten foot pole long however. I agree that the employee turnover is worrisome.

For me, puts are simply too expensive to make a play here.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Dynamic

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2694 on: January 31, 2019, 05:25:37 AM »
I believe the thesis that TSLA adds a Q to its ticket within a short period of time is broken, so in that sense, the short thesis is broken...

For anyone confused by that autocorrect, I think it should have said "Q added to its ticker symbol within a short period of time"

I also agree that I wouldn't take a position in TSLA, long or short, at the moment.
I support the company's mission, and maybe one day I'll buy one of their products, but I cannot feel comfortable either way with the stock or assessing its Intrinsic Value.

cameronfen

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2695 on: January 31, 2019, 07:13:00 AM »
We'll see Spekulatius. Are you still convinced that the short thesis is broken?

Did not have time to listen to the Conference call and go through all the details yet, but some elements seem very sus:
- taking into account the interest income earned over Q4, the average cash balance throughout the quarter was about 1,5 billion. Tesla definitely engaged again in some window dressing at the end of the quarter
- accounts receivable stayed at the 1 billion level - in Q3 Deepak indicated on the call that this was due to the quarter ending in a weekend and Tesla not being able to cash in the customers cheques. Now the quarter ended on a Monday. 1 billion, that is 15.000 Model 3s at an ASP of 60k. Isn't that the number of missing registered cars?
- cap ex was well below depreciation and amortisation in Q4. Is this a growth company?

And ow yeah, one more thing, the CFO leaves and is replaced by a 34 year old who has never held the role of CFO. Are they serious?

I believe the thesis that TSLA adds a Q to its ticket within a short period of time is broken, so in that sense, the short thesis is broken. I would touch the stock with a ten foot pole long however. I agree that the employee turnover is worrisome.

For me, puts are simply too expensive to make a play here.

Is there any reason why you wouldn't sell calls then?  I mean it makes more sense to be long TSLA vol than short it, but you have that infinite potential loss if it goes stratospheric. 

frommi

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2696 on: February 01, 2019, 10:54:34 AM »
Demand cliff confirmed:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyVgIZsUYAAaAvW.jpg

I sold some more call spreads and bought a small amount of 200$ puts with the proceeds. I think the time has come for this short to really work.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2697 on: February 01, 2019, 12:33:55 PM »
Demand cliff confirmed:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyVgIZsUYAAaAvW.jpg

I sold some more call spreads and bought a small amount of 200$ puts with the proceeds. I think the time has come for this short to really work.

I'm not following closely at all (I'm interested in electric cars as a technology, but not in this co as an investment or short), but didn't they mention something about building and shipping Model 3s to Europe and Asia? Isn't this just showing that production is going there right now to meet that backlog (and presumably the US backlog has been fully or partly eliminated in recent months)? The stock certainly didn't react to the number, so something's telling me this isn't what it looks like at first glance, but \_(ツ)_/

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frommi

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2698 on: February 01, 2019, 12:50:31 PM »
Demand cliff confirmed:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyVgIZsUYAAaAvW.jpg

I sold some more call spreads and bought a small amount of 200$ puts with the proceeds. I think the time has come for this short to really work.

I'm not following closely at all (I'm interested in electric cars as a technology, but not in this co as an investment or short), but didn't they mention something about building and shipping Model 3s to Europe and Asia? Isn't this just showing that production is going there right now to meet that backlog (and presumably the US backlog has been fully or partly eliminated in recent months)? The stock certainly didn't react to the number, so something's telling me this isn't what it looks like at first glance, but \_(ツ)_/

Yes of course, but orders from Europe are around 18-20k right now if i recall that correctly, and it will start as soon the end of february. It just shows that there is no continuous demand. Why shouldn`t europe demand fall off after the first batch of orders are fullfilled either? So maybe they can sell 100k cars per year going forward, but thats it. Thats a far cry from the 300-400k production capacity. And the stock is priced as if they sell 2 million cars profitably per year already. Not to mention that its very unlikely now that they post a profit in Q1 or revenue growth QoQ. And the negative working capital rolling off can hurt them hard on the cash balance.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 12:54:21 PM by frommi »

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2699 on: February 01, 2019, 12:59:19 PM »
Demand cliff confirmed:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyVgIZsUYAAaAvW.jpg

I sold some more call spreads and bought a small amount of 200$ puts with the proceeds. I think the time has come for this short to really work.

I'm not following closely at all (I'm interested in electric cars as a technology, but not in this co as an investment or short), but didn't they mention something about building and shipping Model 3s to Europe and Asia? Isn't this just showing that production is going there right now to meet that backlog (and presumably the US backlog has been fully or partly eliminated in recent months)? The stock certainly didn't react to the number, so something's telling me this isn't what it looks like at first glance, but \_(ツ)_/

Yes of course, but orders from Europe are around 18-20k right now if i recall that correctly, and it will start as soon the end of february. It just shows that there is no continuous demand. Why shouldn`t europe demand fall off after the first batch of orders are fullfilled either? So maybe they can sell 100k cars per year going forward, but thats it. Thats a far cry from the 300-400k production capacity. And the stock is priced as if they sell 2 million cars profitably per year already. Not to mention that its very unlikely now that they post a profit in Q1 or revenue growth QoQ. And the negative working capital rolling off can hurt them hard on the cash balance.

I don't know. I'm just saying the chart is showing a huge drop because it doesn't take into account what's going on outside the US. If you had the same chart for "worldwide", it would probably look pretty normal.

I also think the general theory is that over time they keep making lower-priced versions of the M3 and sell it to different segments of the market, and then open up a new segment with the Y (smaller electric crossover), and eventually with an electric pickup truck, etc.

It'll be hard, and they're usually late on their promises, but I don't think the worldwide market for EVs has suddenly tapped out in a single month.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | The importance of saying 'oops'