Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 672434 times)

oddballstocks

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2710 on: February 05, 2019, 01:19:18 PM »
Not sure that list is accurate. They have a Dodge on there.


Agreed on the Dodge, same with a Kia.  Everyone I know with a Kia has said "it's junk, but was cheap."

Had a friend with a Kia that had the hood unlatch and fly open while on the highway.  I was shocked and they said "stuff like this happens all the time"
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Haasje

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2711 on: February 06, 2019, 12:54:13 AM »
Someone from the bear camp that knows more about the company:
https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1092447227040063488

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this deal makes zero sense as a fold in acq.  i know $MXWL well.  it was a one time fraudy promote that has been in cash incineration purgatory with flat revs, declining margins, and serial cap raises for 5 years.  the CEO, fink, is a caretaker check casher.  there's no real tech

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even if the tech was meaningful, it wud take YEARS to integrate commercial designs.  it's mostly power storage tech for spec apps.  they have no auto revs nor any obvs crossover with tesla storage.

they do have a deal w geely for hybrids.  hard to see that standing up post deal.

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they do have one short term asset that could be of use, not as a product, but as a pump.  that asset is this "dry battery electrode" tech.  this is the classic MXWL pump.  they have been claiming to have a "breakthru" tech of one sort or another for 15 years.  has not happened.

Another analysis:
https://www.pivotalcapitalresearch.com/home/tesla-acquires-maxwell-technologies-buyout-bailout-or

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Tesla paid a huge premium for a struggling company on the verge of bankruptcy. The technology they acquired in the deal is going to require significant capex to develop and produce and it just so happens that 20% of the company was owned by the Chinese Government. They announced this deal the Monday after CFO Deepak Ahuja announced his departure in the final 4 minutes of the Q4 2018 earnings call, which raises more questions that I won't get to today. Was this deal part of a kickback to the Chinese Government in the form of a buyout? Possibly, as a more direct bribe would require cash that Tesla desperately needs in order to pay back the $920 million convertible debt issue that matures on March 1st (just over 3 weeks from now). Ultimately, I cannot say whether this was just a bad M&A deal or something more sinister. I do, however, find it extremely "sus" as our friend Elon would say.

I think there are interesting/good points I didn't think about in the bearish commentary but I think the Maxwell deal is a very savvy deal. It is nowhere near enough to have me close my short position but:

Tesla is trading equity for cash, acquiring technology that can give its competitors a headache and it will allow Tesla to tout its proprietary and advanced battery technology. Helpful in the PR wars with the detestable short sellers.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4238408-closer-look-tesla-maxwell-technologies-deal

However, if the tech at Maxwell Technologies is really great or important I doubt Tesla is going to end up with this prize.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2712 on: February 09, 2019, 02:41:07 AM »
Reuters reported yesterday that the North American delivery team was hit hard during the most recent lay-off:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

Some tidbits from the article:
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Some 150 employees out of a team of about 230 were let go in January at the Las Vegas facility that gets tens of thousands of Model 3s into the hands of U.S. and Canadian buyers, they said, in a sign the company expected the pace of deliveries to significantly slow in the near term.

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The two former delivery workers said the 2018 sales push has left Tesla’s reservations list plucked clean of North American buyers willing to pay current prices of over $40,000 to get their hands on a Model 3.

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“We sold through just about every car we had on the ground and we called almost every being on the planet who had ever expressed desire to own a Tesla to let them know the tax credit was expiring,” said the other ex-employee.

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Musk maintains that Model 3 demand is “insanely high,” but his company has not released any figures to demonstrate that.

Asked about the reservations list last week by analysts, outgoing Chief Financial Officer Deepak Ahuja declined to disclose how many people remained, calling it “not relevant.”



Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2713 on: February 09, 2019, 01:50:06 PM »
Jaguar USA sells a whopping 210 I-Pace vehicles in January, and JLR is hemorrhaging cash. Another "Tesla Killer" bites the dust.

Chew on this: In the last 6 months of 2018, Ford generated $1.6B of automotive cash from operations while Tesla generated $2.6B with positive FCF while selling a tiny, tiny fraction of vehicles as F.

Amusing to see the "sources" Tesla shorts cite for "research". Lol, Tweets are valuable sources of DD now?? Good luck with that garbage.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2714 on: February 10, 2019, 11:54:58 PM »
Dalal my good friend, I thought for a minute we had lost you in this thread!

Jaguar USA sells a whopping 210 I-Pace vehicles in January, and JLR is hemorrhaging cash. Another "Tesla Killer" bites the dust.

I think you can do better than rehashing your "EV sales of Tesla competitors are non-existent in the US". As indicated earlier in the thread, until now, most competitors have been selling mainly in Europe. Let's wait for the 2nd half of 2019 to have a more clear indication of US EV sales of competitors.

Chew on this: In the last 6 months of 2018, Ford generated $1.6B of automotive cash from operations while Tesla generated $2.6B with positive FCF while selling a tiny, tiny fraction of vehicles as F.

Out of the $2,6B, $550M is related to working capital movements, $400M is related to stock-based compensation and at least $200M is related to ZEV / GHG credits. But I would not count on the remaining $1,5B cash from operations to be a sustainable amount..

Amusing to see the "sources" Tesla shorts cite for "research". Lol, Tweets are valuable sources of DD now?? Good luck with that garbage.

Some information I found over the last week/weekend re Tesla via Twitter:
- Panasonic is lowering its 2019 sales guidance, which is obviously related to Tesla: https://twitter.com/ravenvanderrave/status/1092331401796567042
- Someone has put the history of the Solarcity bailout together: https://twitter.com/TeslaCharts/status/1007692334933274624
- Elon's and NHTSA's claim that Tesla vehicles crash rate drops by 40% after installation of Autosteer function was a lie: https://twitter.com/GatorInvestor/status/1094295228801077248
- EU cars don't seem to have Autopilot: http://www.thedrive.com/tech/26437/the-mystery-of-teslas-autopilot-less-european-model-3
- Elon has allegedly been further mortgaging his houses to the tune of $62M around the timing of the failed SpaceX raise (they only raised $250M out of the foreseen $500M):
https://twitter.com/temp_worker/status/1094768599766630402
- The Marina Del Ray delivery center had a whopping sales figure of 6 Model 3's between February 1 and February 11. No scheduled sales for March or April: https://twitter.com/Latrilife/status/1094632909057622016
- This is what a totaled Model 3 looks like: https://twitter.com/zomgapocalypse/status/1094633098216726528
- Panoramic roof cracks seem to happen quite often for Model S: https://twitter.com/bobby_tips/status/1093800694459568128

edit: forgot to mention the website https://tslaq.org/, which is a crowdsourced effort of TSLA bears that was started via Twitter.

Anyway, good luck extrapolating the H2 2018 cash flow from operations figures to 2019 based on Elon his statement during the Q4 conference call that 2019 Model 3 sales will increase by 50% over 2018. I think Q1 will look ugly.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 04:02:32 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

meiroy

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2715 on: February 14, 2019, 09:39:51 PM »
TSLA(PUT)      CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY   299,800   $99,773,000   5.78

Druckenmiller as per 13F.

cherzeca

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2716 on: February 15, 2019, 02:06:58 PM »
TSLA(PUT)      CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY   299,800   $99,773,000   5.78

Druckenmiller as per 13F.

wow.  go big or don't go at all.  thanks for the 411

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2717 on: February 17, 2019, 10:22:49 AM »
But srsly, how are those Tesla shorts working out tho ?  ;D

Chanos, Einhorn, and now Druck? So much lost time spent yapping on CNBC/Bloomberg, reading tweets for "research", losses in cost to borrow shares/options premium (overall negative returns), loss of credibility, and let's not forget opportunity cost.

While the "smart money" boys were hating, Elon shot his sportscar into trans-Mars injection around the Sun, has scaled Tesla into a 6 figure auto production company (with unmatched EV marketshare in the U.S. despite "Tesla killers" from the big boy automakers), and had 21 successful SpaceX launches in 2018 with plenty more to come in 2019. Bonds will be due soon for Tesla, but plenty of cash to cover it, with profitable quarters from here on out (more than can be said of some of those big boy automakers like Ford).

Woe be to the hedge fund manager (I guess Chanos can sit at home and admire his art collection at least). So much value created for society by the haters.

Me? I'm just sitting here on the sidelines eating popcorn whilst watching Elon do his magic. Watching the haters burn is just icing on the cake. What a time to be alive.  8)
« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 10:25:53 AM by Dalal.Holdings »

walt373

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2718 on: February 18, 2019, 09:37:29 AM »
From a 2017 article, quoting Druck:

Quote
I had a guy who managed some money for me come in when the stock was $82. And I think I was 62. [Note: This chronology is incompatible but whatever.] I had given myself a Tesla for my sixtieth birthday. And he had this incredibly effective analysis, like 20 pages of financials about why Tesla was a short. And at then end of this presentation – really well thought-out – I said, “Have you ever driven the car?”

And he said, “No.” And I sent him his redemption notice the next week.

So to his credit, he avoided a painful short with "have you driven one bro?"

Castanza

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2719 on: February 18, 2019, 10:02:04 AM »
Why doesn't Tesla stop focusing on building complete vehicles and instead focus on powering the vehicles of other companies. Why couldn't they build drive trains, motors and wheel bases to be retrofitted into any number of vehicles already on the road? They could be the Cummins, Lariat, Duramax engine of the EV segment.

"Introducing the new 2020 BMW 530i powered by Tesla"
"Introducing the new 2020 Honda Civic powered by Tesla"
"Introducing the new 2020 Chevy Malibu powered by Tesla"

It seems like it would cut down on manufacturing inefficiency, time and money spent on R&D, time spent fixing issues not related to the engines and give them a clear path forward which (I'm assuming) would have a faster turnover rate. Let the big brands market the cars. Think of all the marketing money Tesla could save. If every major auto brand offered one or two cars with a Tesla powered variant they would sell themselves at a much faster rate. If they were to do this I can easily see US consumers jumping ship on foreign brands to come back to the big US brands which are currently (in the consumers eye) unreliable, outdated, relics of the boomer era (no offense meant).

Thoughts? I'm not well versed in manufacturing or the auto industry. maybe this is way out in left field.