Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 654187 times)

DTEJD1997

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2850 on: April 27, 2019, 09:46:40 AM »
Hey all:

Where are the bulls on TSLA?

Nothing to be heard?

I have to admit, I've been very wrong, AND very off on my pricing/valuation for TSLA.  Mr. Musk is indeed an incredible promoter...much, Much, MUCH better than I initially gave him credit for.

The upcoming 12-18 months are indeed going to be interesting!  They are going to have insurance company, have solved the self driving problem, and will have have a million robo-taxis rolling about.

Obviously, they are going to make so much kash money, they simply won't know what to do with it all!


Grant

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2851 on: April 28, 2019, 11:34:09 AM »
The Tesla bull thesis seems to have shifted to robo-taxis. A common tactic of stock promoters is to promise the moon, so even if there's only a small likelihood of success some investors will think the risk-adjusted returns justify a long position.

While the probability of near-term success in level 4+ autonomy seems unlikely, Tesla's autonomy day did make me realize the company is taking this effort seriously. It's not just a way to promote the stock and raise cash selling FSD options.

Grant

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2852 on: April 29, 2019, 10:33:20 AM »
Quote from: 10-K to 10-Q differences
As of December 31, 2018 March 31 2019 we were in material compliance with all financial debt covenants ...

Castanza

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2853 on: May 01, 2019, 09:52:14 AM »
I don't understand how people justify wild claims like this? Tesla to 4000?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWFjfYa28A0&t=230s

DTEJD1997

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2854 on: May 01, 2019, 10:03:58 AM »
I don't understand how people justify wild claims like this? Tesla to 4000?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWFjfYa28A0&t=230s

10% of her fund is in TSLA...what is she going to say?  I'm in TSLA because of the greater fool theory?  OR maybe there are so many TSLA fanboys, that she set up a fund to "rope them in"?  A marketing tool perhaps?  Perhaps she spouts insane nonsense simply to get in a segment on CNBC as she just did?

If this woman truly believes what she is saying I would suggest that she does not go to the marketplace, lest she be talked into trading her KASH for magic beans.

Further, I would also suggest looking closely at her portfolio, for if she is deluded about TSLA, what other turkeys does she have?  Taking the opposite position on her trades/holdings may be very lucrative indeed.



Haasje

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2855 on: May 01, 2019, 11:41:44 AM »
I think it is marketing. I don't have a problem with outlandish targets. But; the fantasies to  get there, there are many other alternative stocks that are also very, very undervalued (with fewer risk) if you are this generous with your assumptions :)

It is also weird how the $4k price target doesn't change even after a horrendous quarter.

Haasje

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2856 on: May 01, 2019, 11:44:33 AM »
And then to load up on a stock like this in an ETF structure... From one day to the next it can just get crushed on some awful news (like Elon getting fired or something) and every trader will see it when they want to get out of their top position and they will short it like crazy ahead of that. Could get really ugly one day.

Grant

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2857 on: May 01, 2019, 12:14:45 PM »
Cathie Wood isn't just pumping; her ETFs have been buying this "dip". If Tesla can achieve level 4 autonomy next year, it really might be worth $4,000. Of course no one else believes it can do this. The market's days of believing Elon Musk seem long over.

Haasje

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2858 on: May 01, 2019, 02:16:49 PM »
Even if we assume it should be worth $4000 if it achieves lvl4 next year (I'd say that also depends on what competitors do who are mostly ahead). At $4k it would be worth $800 billion (assuming no additional shares issued).

Even more incredible than achieving lvl 4 would be to achieve it while burning cash at core operations, not spending much of anything on R&D and being on the brink of bankruptcy all the while.

Even if I believed TSLA could achieve a feat like achieving that lvl4, the road to get there would still be immensely risky.

Ahab

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2859 on: May 01, 2019, 02:35:50 PM »
I agree with you Haasje. It takes a high degree of credulousness to believe $4000 as a bull case and $800 as a bear case are reasonable targets for Tesla. This is a company that lost more money in the last quarter ($700 million, excl. one time items closer to $1 billion) than it has made in its entire existence. It has slashed its Capex to barebones levels and greatly reduced its R&D spend to contend with its dwindling cash balance (likely well below $2 billion at this point). Among other things that suggest a lack of cash, the Maxwell deal hasn't closed yet and a Solar City term loan keeps getting extended by several more months. The $4000 question is why Musk has refused/refuses to raise additional equity.  I suspect it's legal/regulatory barriers that are barring him from begging the Tesla faithful for more money.
I suspect this ends in a bang not a whimper. Tesla needs to raise highly dilutive financing in the next several months or it will go bankrupt by years end.
Holdings: FNMAS/J/N, FMCKO, BAC, JPM, GOOG, GM (calls),  Tesla (is a zero)
Twitter: AhabValue