Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 693834 times)

SHDL

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2900 on: May 22, 2019, 06:29:24 PM »
Looks like TSLA is going to get VERY interesting now.

I’m probably not the only one who feels like this is a Fist of the North Star moment where the damage is done and the stock is “already dead.”


SmallCap

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2901 on: May 22, 2019, 07:10:13 PM »
I sold the last of my put options today, I traded partially in and out a few times in the last year, each trade was very profitable largely due to lucky timing and that the thesis seems to be working out. Now everyone is turning very bearish and so I am taking my profits and moving on. probably leaving a lot on the table.
Love watching what people can accomplish through business.
www.sethgetz.com @sethgetz

Haasje

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2902 on: May 23, 2019, 12:34:05 AM »
This has incredible momentum downwards. The mainstream paradigm is NOW shifting. As it drops the odds of Elon getting a margin call improve and that will accelerate downward pressure because 1) he'll have to sell into the downwards spiral 2) it will trigger LOTS of negative reports. I'm adding frequently to my short to keep it a large position.


DTEJD1997

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2903 on: May 23, 2019, 09:06:29 AM »
hey all:

TSLA problems are picking up momentum!  The local news station in Detroit, WJR, is reporting that "TSLA is having problems, down 50% for the year, and a possible take over target".  If they mainstream, broadcast news is reporting on it, you KNOW things are bad.

flob8b

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2904 on: May 23, 2019, 08:48:40 PM »
Was overvalued for a long time but some believers kept the stock up.
I do not see a takeover happening but given the negativity around the company I would not short the stock either.
Musk is a clown and he should have been fined billions.

fuzzhead1506

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2905 on: May 24, 2019, 02:45:18 PM »
I take back my partial defense of Cathy @ Ark: this valuation model is ludicrous.

https://github.com/TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

She has essentially said that the company goes cash flow positive immediately and funds a growth in sales from the current 300k cars to 1.7 mill In just 5 years at an average sales price of nearly $50k and “gross margin” of 25%.  Oh... and an average mkt cap on equity raises of $70B with only $10B raised.

IMHO those numbers aren’t bad for a bull case, but there is a huge jump her team doesn’t seem to be accounting for between the current cash crunch and cash flow positive; if there is any chance at those growth numbers being remotely possible, a new plant with the same efficiency as Hyundai’s Ulsan Plant at a cost of ~$30B would be a necessity (unless they find a way for the machine to make the machine).

For the bull case: the robotaxi service (only factored into her Bull case  ::) ) adds ~$1T - yes trillion with a T - to her model and the company is going to have an enterprise value less than its Market cap at 2023.

This knucklehead continues to recieve capital and a CNBC soap box to spout this nonsense while value nerds like us continue to languish with the likes of GM and FCAU.

DTEJD1997

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2906 on: May 24, 2019, 08:43:00 PM »
Hey all:

Here is something I have not really considered much until lately.

What happens if the economy goes down or serious contracts?  I imagine car sales will be impacted across the board, but especially so at the high end?  TSLA will get hit.

Also, what happens if rare earth elements out of China get scarcer/more expensive?  TSLA will be hit especially hard.

As time progresses, it becomes harder & harder to see how this thing is NOT a zero.

walt373

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2907 on: May 25, 2019, 10:31:55 AM »
@HedgeyeIndstrls with an interesting data point (https://twitter.com/HedgeyeIndstrls/status/1132001657888358400)

Quote
In surveys, we find that 40pct of Tesla owning respondents say that stock price gains paid for “all or a meaningful part” of their Tesla vehicle.

@CoverDrive12 follows up (https://twitter.com/CoverDrive12/status/1132318949922824195)

Quote
In the automotive world, the relationship between car owner and stock owner is unique to Tesla. Last month, I speculated that it if $TSLA dropped below $200 in May, it would breach a psychological confidence level that could collapse the order rate.

TSLA is currently the single worst performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 YTD. Car shoppers may see the plummeting stock price and fear "bankwuptcy" is more than just an April Fool's joke. There's much more reflexivity here than people realize, imo.

cherzeca

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2908 on: May 26, 2019, 09:32:42 AM »
@HedgeyeIndstrls with an interesting data point (https://twitter.com/HedgeyeIndstrls/status/1132001657888358400)

Quote
In surveys, we find that 40pct of Tesla owning respondents say that stock price gains paid for “all or a meaningful part” of their Tesla vehicle.

@CoverDrive12 follows up (https://twitter.com/CoverDrive12/status/1132318949922824195)

Quote
In the automotive world, the relationship between car owner and stock owner is unique to Tesla. Last month, I speculated that it if $TSLA dropped below $200 in May, it would breach a psychological confidence level that could collapse the order rate.

TSLA is currently the single worst performing stock in the Nasdaq 100 YTD. Car shoppers may see the plummeting stock price and fear "bankwuptcy" is more than just an April Fool's joke. There's much more reflexivity here than people realize, imo.

interesting, thx for posting

peterHK

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2909 on: May 27, 2019, 07:05:08 AM »
I take back my partial defense of Cathy @ Ark: this valuation model is ludicrous.

https://github.com/TashaARK/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

She has essentially said that the company goes cash flow positive immediately and funds a growth in sales from the current 300k cars to 1.7 mill In just 5 years at an average sales price of nearly $50k and “gross margin” of 25%.  Oh... and an average mkt cap on equity raises of $70B with only $10B raised.

IMHO those numbers aren’t bad for a bull case, but there is a huge jump her team doesn’t seem to be accounting for between the current cash crunch and cash flow positive; if there is any chance at those growth numbers being remotely possible, a new plant with the same efficiency as Hyundai’s Ulsan Plant at a cost of ~$30B would be a necessity (unless they find a way for the machine to make the machine).

For the bull case: the robotaxi service (only factored into her Bull case  ::) ) adds ~$1T - yes trillion with a T - to her model and the company is going to have an enterprise value less than its Market cap at 2023.

This knucklehead continues to recieve capital and a CNBC soap box to spout this nonsense while value nerds like us continue to languish with the likes of GM and FCAU.

Did you also not notice the following:

If I assume they sell 0 cars for $0, it's a $46bn company because how they calculate EBITDA is they take EBIT (which would be $0) and add D&A to it. THat's not how it works folks!

Why is there no Balance sheet (does it balance?)
Why is there no cash flow statement?
Why is there no income statement?
Why do they assume only $19,000 (not $19 billion, 19 THOUSAND) in PP&E in 2023 (yes they did, I'm not kidding)?
Why did they hard code $31,093,764,148.19 in FCF? What is that based on?
Why did they not adjust for the $800mn in SBC that Tesla pays a year?
Why is it that if I have them raise $1 trillion at a $70 billion valuation, the cash shows up nowhere in their model, and the market cap after that is still $46 billion assuming 0 cars and 0 autonomous?

This model is more broken than King Bran.