Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 694239 times)

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3030 on: July 10, 2019, 03:43:34 PM »
Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter.

Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just be copying bits). Anyone thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge).


But that hockey stick curve happened like a whole year after Elon said it would, hence's he's a fraud and this is all just like Enron and Madoff Investments wrapped up into one. We all remember how Bernie was churning out 95k EVs a quarter while stealing from his investors, don't we?

Meanwhile, Jaguar, BMW, Porsche, etc are totally on schedule with their upcoming EV onslaught. It's coming...always just "5 years away but check out this cool concept car we have for now"...and customers will go nuts for their superior products and ditch Tesla!!


Investmentacct

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3031 on: July 10, 2019, 03:59:08 PM »
Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter.

Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just be copying bits). Anyone thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge).



Your observation is correct. Revenue growth has lot to do with products which came about to be non-existent or having parallels and attributed to "have you driven it?" (rhetorical question) .  Also, Zero to One chapter Tesla 7 for 7 explains (written 2014; still holds true) about the company distinctions. Company seems to be competing in to crowded market in existing industry(incumbents with same products); but based on product with features; there is no parallels (from customer standpoints in new industry) to compare.

Hence, the NEXT TESLA killers which are published articles since 2010. Lot has to do with company founded and located where it is bay area , So-cal and Reno.

Tesla is a technology company started selling cars; when existing car manufacturers are trying to figure out technology(there is always a new wave).
Products can be compared against existing incumbent products in below categories from consumer standpoint.

Electric Battery Range
Electric Battery performance and statistics verified via actual consumer data
Electric Motors performance and improvements
Console based full car configurations (all parts connected to Internet) IOT
Safety (NHTSA ratings)
Acceleration/performance statistics
IOT/Software modes (Sentry, Dog, Dashcams, Gaming and upcoming modes)
Autopilot (level 2-3 continuous improvements to FSD) and Advanced summon
OTA updates
Product Warranties
Supercharging network (Tesla superchargers are getting upgraded to V3 (running at 250KW speed) when other non-existent networks)

TESLA makes continuous improvements in All of the above applied against all the product categories simultaneously from CONSUMER standpoint not from competitor standpoint; as they do not have to copy competitors but hear customers and implement features via continuous customer feedback from Twitter feeds and release multiple upgrade of software every month.




 




« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 04:22:07 PM by Investmentacct »

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3032 on: July 10, 2019, 07:01:08 PM »
Say what you want about Tesla, but they went from $102m of TTM revenue in September 2012 to $22.6bn last quarter.

Impressive for a manufacturing company that requires a lot of capital and tangible assets and labor (this isn't software scaling up quickly just be copying bits). Anyone thinks that a company can do that without tremendous growing pains and fires popping up left and right is deluded (even if Musk had never been born, put anyone else in charge).


Your observation is correct. Revenue growth has lot to do with products which came about to be non-existent or having parallels and attributed to "have you driven it?" (rhetorical question) .  Also, Zero to One chapter Tesla 7 for 7 explains (written 2014; still holds true) about the company distinctions. Company seems to be competing in to crowded market in existing industry(incumbents with same products); but based on product with features; there is no parallels (from customer standpoints in new industry) to compare.

Hence, the NEXT TESLA killers which are published articles since 2010. Lot has to do with company founded and located where it is bay area , So-cal and Reno.

Tesla is a technology company started selling cars; when existing car manufacturers are trying to figure out technology(there is always a new wave).
Products can be compared against existing incumbent products in below categories from consumer standpoint.

Electric Battery Range
Electric Battery performance and statistics verified via actual consumer data
Electric Motors performance and improvements
Console based full car configurations (all parts connected to Internet) IOT
Safety (NHTSA ratings)
Acceleration/performance statistics
IOT/Software modes (Sentry, Dog, Dashcams, Gaming and upcoming modes)
Autopilot (level 2-3 continuous improvements to FSD) and Advanced summon
OTA updates
Product Warranties
Supercharging network (Tesla superchargers are getting upgraded to V3 (running at 250KW speed) when other non-existent networks)

TESLA makes continuous improvements in All of the above applied against all the product categories simultaneously from CONSUMER standpoint not from competitor standpoint; as they do not have to copy competitors but hear customers and implement features via continuous customer feedback from Twitter feeds and release multiple upgrade of software every month.

Tesla clearly has no real competitors when it comes to technology. Look at this latest piece (from a pro-Tesla site) about a regretful purchaser of the supposed "Tesla-killer" Jaguar I-Pace:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-jaguar-ipace-ownership-experience-buyers-remorse/

To me, the most striking thing in the article wasn't that the purchaser sorely regretted his purchase and "shoulda just bought a Tesla", it's shots of Jaguar's sexy, hip UI that brings back memories of Windows 98:



Wow, surely Tesla has no "brand equity" or moat, and is really susceptible to competition from these old school automakers who have no clue when it comes to technology. I mean, they've been creating amazing "infotainment" systems in their cars for ages now, right? Really responsive touch screens and great propietary software and nav systems...I mean why would you use Apple CarPlay--these automakers clearly know how to do tech and UI design. Surely all those hip young Model 3 purchasers will jump at the first chance they get to these hip old school auto companies with their "retro style" software...once those gorgeous EVs they've been promising finally hit the dealer showrooms, that is...
« Last Edit: July 10, 2019, 07:04:32 PM by Dalal.Holdings »

no_free_lunch

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3033 on: July 10, 2019, 07:34:51 PM »
 I am with you that TSLA is the best and the short arguments are frequently self serving.  However where do u see it from a valuation perspective?   Is it investable?  I was really hoping they could get their gross margins up but they are hovering around 20%. At that level there isn't much left after sg&a. 

walt373

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3034 on: July 11, 2019, 09:37:24 AM »
These comments that TSLA has been and remains a bad short are puzzling.

The stock is flat after 5 years and down significantly from the peak 2 years ago. It is down a lot YTD, one of the worst performing stocks in the Nasdaq composite, and was literally the single worst until the stock bounced recently. This is during a roaring bull market and a very strong market YTD. And during a time when the growth factor has performed exceptionally well. This is about as well as you could have hoped shorting a large cap glamour stock that has continued to have massive revenue growth.

Also, the borrow cost is under 1%, less than the interest you earn on cash received, meaning you are being paid to short it.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Have you guys looked at the stock chart? Yes it's a very crowded short, but it has worked on almost any timeframe and is really picking up steam this year.

Liberty

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dwy000

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3036 on: July 16, 2019, 10:22:35 AM »
So I finally bit the bullet and bought a Tesla last week.  Loving the car although must admit I still hold some range anxiety.

One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in.  Without ever seeing it.  Now granted, it was in good condition and if I sold it privately could probably have received $500 - $1000 more but it wasn't worth the brain damage to list it and deal with test drives etc.  I recently upgraded our other car and the dealerships all offered less than Blue Book (it was in good condition too) on the premise that they needed some margin to resell it.  I'm wondering if Tesla is losing money on the trade ins by offering such favorable pricing.  They must just wholesale them out.  Just odd that there is such a focus on the headline sales price for each vehicle but the net value going to Tesla after the trade in is way more variable than I would have thought.

SHDL

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3037 on: July 16, 2019, 10:55:46 AM »
One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in.  Without ever seeing it. 

Thank you for the interesting data point. 

Iím catching up with all the recent stories about the company and I have to agree with the naysayers/skeptics/cynics that the companyís recent actions seem to be driven entirely by the desire to release good news regarding vehicle deliveries and give the stock price a short term boost.  Maybe thatís something they need to do in order to keep the company alive, but itís not a pretty sight. 
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 10:59:19 AM by SHDL »

coc

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3038 on: July 16, 2019, 12:40:43 PM »
So I finally bit the bullet and bought a Tesla last week.  Loving the car although must admit I still hold some range anxiety.

One thing I found quite interesting and helped with the purchase (but can't be great for the company) is that they offered me Kelly Blue Book on my trade in.  Without ever seeing it.  Now granted, it was in good condition and if I sold it privately could probably have received $500 - $1000 more but it wasn't worth the brain damage to list it and deal with test drives etc.  I recently upgraded our other car and the dealerships all offered less than Blue Book (it was in good condition too) on the premise that they needed some margin to resell it.  I'm wondering if Tesla is losing money on the trade ins by offering such favorable pricing.  They must just wholesale them out.  Just odd that there is such a focus on the headline sales price for each vehicle but the net value going to Tesla after the trade in is way more variable than I would have thought.

If theyíre offering your KBB, theyíre almost certainly losing money. Wholesale wonít pay KBB price. The dealers who buy wholesale are likely to sell for something like KBB. Plus TSLA must front costs (not huge, but in aggregate, not nothing) of buying it from you and re-selling it @ wholesale.

JRM

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3039 on: July 16, 2019, 02:52:41 PM »
Tesla should just send trade-ins straight to the crusher, unless its a Tesla of course.  How else are they going to rid the world of evil ICE's?