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General Category => Investment Ideas => Topic started by: Palantir on May 31, 2013, 11:45:02 AM

Title: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on May 31, 2013, 11:45:02 AM
We need a new stock to have very detailed, mindless flame wars over. I feel Tesla Motors presents a great opportunity in that regard. This is a fast growing tech stock, and I think this is going to be basically like the next Apple or something.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Edward on May 31, 2013, 12:00:07 PM
Let the flame wars begin!  ;D

This is a small luxury auto manufacturer. It has one plant in the US with an annual capacity of 400K units, of which they are using 20K. They have some intellectual property but nothing too fancy. Electric cars are not very complicated to build as opposed to good engines and transmissions which are. The company isn't profitable - currently about break even.

All this is supposedly worth 12B$, god knows how. My guess - Elon Musk must be it. If he leaves for any reason this company loses 90% of its valuation overnight.

Regarding the Apple comparisons. An auto manufacturer has years of lead time to get a car into the market, and growth can never be huge because of the capital costs. Also, they have intentions to grow in the sub 40K$ car market, which is populated by some serious competitors (GM, Renault-Nissan). This doesn't bode well for future profitability.

At this price, this company is priced for absolute perfection at least 10 years into the future.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 31, 2013, 12:17:19 PM
There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Aberhound on May 31, 2013, 04:00:24 PM
I am trying to understand what moat Tesla will have in 2014 onwards. The stock is currently overvalued but what valuation will apply in 2014 and onwards?

In 2014 when Tesla supercharger stations cover 80% of Canada and US major routes with free charging what will competing electric car companies offer? Does Tesla allow other electric cars to use their supercharger stations or is that even possible?

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharge (http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharge)

Has anyone every used a Municipal owned charging station and had a good experience? Public sector services usually can't compete. Are there other private sector charging stations that are any good?

Once the $40,000 sedan is available won't the lifetime cost of the car be much less than gas and diesel vehicles? Lifetime cost is hard to determine because presumably Tesla will have a better battery in ten years when replacement is required and we don't know if Tesla will charge a high or a low price for the replacement. Electric cars should last much longer than gas and diesel cars. Is SolarCity going to offer free home charging for Tesla vehicles?

No one has ever succeeded in launching a new volume car manufacturer due to the economies of scale and government regulatory obstacles. Presumably high volume production begins with the $40,000 price level car. I haven't seen Tesla's plans for building the high volume plants. The current plants don't seem suited for high volume production. I note that Ford's plants in Brazil are far more efficient than their US plants due to greater flexibility. Does Tesla have a plan for more efficient high volume production? When the expensive high volume plants are built won't there be dilution especially considering that the bond bubble probably will not last long enough to finance them (but if they succeed Tesla will have a good moat).

Telsa's sales model without dealers is radically different. Saturn's similar one price policy was popular.

Tesla's maintenance packages are different with lots of fixed price options up to 100,000 miles. Currently dealers make much of their money on warranty servicing. Will Tesla capture that profit? Electric cars require much less maintenance so the fixed price options might be extremely profitable. Will they adopt a cheap razor and expensive razor blades sales model?

Too much speculation is required for me. I watch with interest there is the possibility that Tesla can develop a good long term moat similar to how Geico beats the traditional insurers who are stuck with the independent agent model. I don't see how the existing car companies can switch to Tesla's new methods.

The insider trading stats should include a section to report holdings by Congress and workers who are exempt from insider trading rules. I bet Tesla's stock price will set records for volatility because they are so dependent on government regulatory policy. It will be interesting to see if their stock goes up with democrat administrations and down with republican administrations. Maybe they should build their next plant in a Republican state.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 31, 2013, 04:37:46 PM
In 2014 when Tesla supercharger stations cover 80% of Canada and US major routes with free charging what will competing electric car companies offer? Does Tesla allow other electric cars to use their supercharger stations or is that even possible?

Only the Model S by Tesla can use the supercharger network.

Not even the Tesla Roadster can use the superchargers.

They simply aren't capable of receiving that much electrical current -- so as they are currently designed, it's impossible for the competing electric cars (all of them) to charge as quickly as a Model S can recharge at a supercharger station.

They are also planning on upgrading the supercharger stations to feed even more current to the Model S (the Model S is designed to handle more current than superchargers presently provide).

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 31, 2013, 06:07:14 PM
Incidentally, SolarCity sells a battery backup system for homes to their residential consumers.

The batteries they sell are made by Tesla.

I wonder how much they cost:

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: plato1976 on May 31, 2013, 06:08:32 PM
sorry I may be retarded in reading the subtle implication in English;
but 2&3 ? Eur and Asia already saturated ?

There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 31, 2013, 06:24:52 PM
sorry I may be retarded in reading the subtle implication in English;
but 2&3 ? Eur and Asia already saturated ?

There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.

They have sold zero, zilch, nada in Europe and Asia thus far. 

(I was trying to be as sarcastic as possible in the original post. ).

Supercharger stations only cost $250,000 to build.  They just sold a ton of stock to the public.  They can build this network!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on May 31, 2013, 06:29:49 PM
sorry I may be retarded in reading the subtle implication in English;
but 2&3 ? Eur and Asia already saturated ?

There is pretty much no hope for expansion.

1)  Most cities in America have a vast supercharger network.  Thus, there is nothing holding back adoption.
2)  They have saturated Europe.
3)  They have saturated Asia.

And yet they are only breaking even!

They are toast.  No way to make a profit going forward given that there is no growth left.
Sarcasm, as in they have not saurated europe and asia at all.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 31, 2013, 06:37:36 PM
The issue is that you almost never drive more than 200 miles in a day.  Only on road trips.  But day in day out, dropping off kids, going to your job, those days you never do more than even 100 miles.

So you plug in your car and almost never go to the gas station.  Always a full "tank" in the morning"

Road trip?  Either own a second car (gasoline or diesel) or rent one.

And no visits for oil changes and no need to have the vehicle serviced.  It's kind of a hassle having multiple cars and keeping up with the oil changes and service visits.

The Model S is also the fastest of the sports sedans (faster than BMW M5 to 100 mph) and has incredible storage capacity (due to not having an engine in the front, there is a second trunk in the front).  And faster than Porche Carrera 4s to 60mps.  And that's a little wimpy car with no seating capacity and no trunk space.  The Model S can haul 7 people around (two kids in the rear facing third row seats).


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 31, 2013, 06:46:34 PM
Their strategy is good.  First release the Model S where the competition is at similar price points, and where your customers have multiple car garages.  Meanwhile, expand your supercharger network.  Later, release the mass market model at 1/2 price when the superchargers network is far more expansive and your target audience has fewer stalls in the garage.

I'm a little disappointed in the government.  They did the space program, the internet program, and they spend trillions on the military to defend our supply of cheap gasoline.  But why not stimulate the economy by using government money to build out the supercharger network under the "if we build it, they will come" mantra.  Meanwhile, the supercharger station produce solar electricity -- if they don't come, the electricity can be sold wholesale and the costs will be recovered.  So it's zero risk to the taxpayer -- stimulus package that would actually pay for itself even in the event of total and complete failure.  Now that would be refreshing for a change.  Meanwhile, if it succeeds in jumpstarting electric vehicle industry, we can scale back on military spending.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: deadspace on May 31, 2013, 10:41:07 PM
Incidentally, SolarCity sells a battery backup system for homes to their residential consumers.

The batteries they sell are made by Tesla.

I wonder how much they cost:

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx

Tesla does not make batteries -   these are from panasonic.   It continues to come up in arguments as a feature of Tesla's "vertical integration" which is just not true

Look at BYD   they own the Lithium mine and control the entire chain of production of their batteries- now thats vertical integration. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: treasurehunt on June 01, 2013, 01:19:38 AM

Tesla does not make batteries -   these are from panasonic.   It continues to come up in arguments as a feature of Tesla's "vertical integration" which is just not true

Look at BYD   they own the Lithium mine and control the entire chain of production of their batteries- now thats vertical integration.

I understand that Tesla makes each battery pack using some 8000 individual lithium ion batteries from Panasonic. The technological advantage is in the making of the battery pack, not each individual battery in the pack. Based on what I have read, Tesla has patented technology in the manufacture of the battery pack, but I have no idea how difficult this is to reproduce for others.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Uccmal on June 01, 2013, 05:14:31 AM
Their strategy is good.  First release the Model S where the competition is at similar price points, and where your customers have multiple car garages.  Meanwhile, expand your supercharger network.  Later, release the mass market model at 1/2 price when the superchargers network is far more expansive and your target audience has fewer stalls in the garage.

I'm a little disappointed in the government.  They did the space program, the internet program, and they spend trillions on the military to defend our supply of cheap gasoline.  But why not stimulate the economy by using government money to build out the supercharger network under the "if we build it, they will come" mantra.  Meanwhile, the supercharger station produce solar electricity -- if they don't come, the electricity can be sold wholesale and the costs will be recovered.  So it's zero risk to the taxpayer -- stimulus package that would actually pay for itself even in the event of total and complete failure.  Now that would be refreshing for a change.  Meanwhile, if it succeeds in jumpstarting electric vehicle industry, we can scale back on military spending.


Ericopoly for President!  Oh, if only.  The problem is that the oil industry is very powerful and has financed the campaigns of many of your elected officials.  However, the balance of power is shifting rapidly.  Of course the XOMs of the world can easily change course and they will. 

I think Tesla is really onto something.  Whether or not the stock is fairly valued is impossible to say.  I am reminded that Auto companies are not great investments.  One would probably be better off getting in on the ground floor of the dealership network.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: stahleyp on June 01, 2013, 07:14:19 AM
Their strategy is good.  First release the Model S where the competition is at similar price points, and where your customers have multiple car garages.  Meanwhile, expand your supercharger network.  Later, release the mass market model at 1/2 price when the superchargers network is far more expansive and your target audience has fewer stalls in the garage.

I'm a little disappointed in the government.  They did the space program, the internet program, and they spend trillions on the military to defend our supply of cheap gasoline.  But why not stimulate the economy by using government money to build out the supercharger network under the "if we build it, they will come" mantra.  Meanwhile, the supercharger station produce solar electricity -- if they don't come, the electricity can be sold wholesale and the costs will be recovered.  So it's zero risk to the taxpayer -- stimulus package that would actually pay for itself even in the event of total and complete failure.  Now that would be refreshing for a change.  Meanwhile, if it succeeds in jumpstarting electric vehicle industry, we can scale back on military spending.


Ericopoly for President!  Oh, if only.  The problem is that the oil industry is very powerful and has financed the campaigns of many of your elected officials.  However, the balance of power is shifting rapidly.  Of course the XOMs of the world can easily change course and they will. 

I think Tesla is really onto something.  Whether or not the stock is fairly valued is impossible to say.  I am reminded that Auto companies are not great investments.  One would probably be better off getting in on the ground floor of the dealership network.

He's got my vote.  :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 01, 2013, 07:46:05 AM
Incidentally, SolarCity sells a battery backup system for homes to their residential consumers.

The batteries they sell are made by Tesla.

I wonder how much they cost:

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx
-

Tesla does not make batteries -   these are from panasonic.   It continues to come up in arguments as a feature of Tesla's "vertical integration" which is just not true

Look at BYD   they own the Lithium mine and control the entire chain of production of their batteries- now thats vertical integration.

BYD does not make the picks and shovels used to mine the lithium.  Nobody is vertically integrated.

Tesla makes:
Battery packs
Vehicles
Superchargers
Direct sales of cars to consumers (no dealer network)

They are vertically integrated.

EDIT:  Oh whoops,SolarCity builds their supercharger stations, and they buy the photovoltaic components from other suppliers.  I guess that's also evidence that they're not vertically integrated.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 01, 2013, 07:46:56 AM
Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 01, 2013, 08:05:20 AM
Toyota and Daimler are big Tesla investors:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2013/06/01/what-do-toyota-and-mercedes-see-in-tesla-a-bit-of-themselves/

Daimler, for instance, uses a Tesla battery in the electric version of its Smart city car. And its upcoming Mercedes B-class EV, which goes on sale in 2014, will feature a Tesla powertrain. Toyota, meanwhile, gave Tesla a $100 million contract to supply the  electric motor, power electronics, battery, gearbox and software for the new $50,000 RAV4 EV. The SUVs are made alongside Tesla’s Model S sedan in a Fremont, Calif., factory formerly operated by Toyota and General Motors GM -2.17%. Toyota sold the plant to Tesla in 2010 for $42 million.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: shalab on June 01, 2013, 08:29:53 AM
Having ridden a tesla, don't see a reason to buy another car - you can run circles around others and maintenance is low. These guys can take over the car industry or be the GM of the 21st century. ( anyone who thinks otherwise should read 20th century GM story. )

I totally see my kids driving around a tesla when they grow up and it won't be their dad's car :-)

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: deadspace on June 01, 2013, 08:49:01 AM
Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 01, 2013, 09:04:01 AM
Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.


Maybe you believe I said somewhere that cost of battery does not matter? 

Do you believe Tesla is unable to lower their cost of battery pack?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on June 01, 2013, 09:19:47 AM
Toyota and Daimler are big Tesla investors:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2013/06/01/what-do-toyota-and-mercedes-see-in-tesla-a-bit-of-themselves/

Daimler, for instance, uses a Tesla battery in the electric version of its Smart city car. And its upcoming Mercedes B-class EV, which goes on sale in 2014, will feature a Tesla powertrain. Toyota, meanwhile, gave Tesla a $100 million contract to supply the  electric motor, power electronics, battery, gearbox and software for the new $50,000 RAV4 EV. The SUVs are made alongside Tesla’s Model S sedan in a Fremont, Calif., factory formerly operated by Toyota and General Motors GM -2.17%. Toyota sold the plant to Tesla in 2010 for $42 million.

I like Tesla the company a lot, and I think Musk will be successful with it.  Not only is he building a fantastic brand for EVs that any of the big auto guys would love to have (maybe Tesla is the new BMW or Porsche in terms of brand value?), but he's also doing deals with folks like Toyota and Mercedes (as noted by Eric above) to provide the guts of some of their new releases.

Having said all of the above, I find the current market valuation puzzling.  It's weird that Fiat/Chrysler is worth less to the market than Tesla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Otsog on June 01, 2013, 09:31:48 AM
Has anyone been following the legal aspect of tesla's direct selling?

Is the pushback they've been getting from some states a material hindrance or just noise?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: deadspace on June 01, 2013, 10:46:36 AM
Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.


Maybe you believe I said somewhere that cost of battery does not matter? 

Do you believe Tesla is unable to lower their cost of battery pack?

No I don't - not relative to anyone else who is making electric cars.  There is no cost advantage when you are buying from panasonic
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: shalab on June 01, 2013, 11:32:47 AM

No I don't - not relative to anyone else who is making electric cars.  There is no cost advantage when you are buying from panasonic

It is like saying Microsoft has no advantage because its operating systems ( mostly ) run on intel chips.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 01, 2013, 11:58:15 AM
No cost advantage in buying from Panasonic?

Hmm...  does Panasonic have a monopoly in batteries, or is the battery a commodity?  What pricing power does Panasonic have?

My understanding is that a battery is a commodity and prices will come down.  You can make your own, but isn't it more important to make the best car, since they are selling cars and not batteries?

Tesla makes the best car.  Best electric car, but also the best car of any variety.  The absolute best.

Someone will come along and sell them a cheaper battery if Panasonic rips them off.  Maybe they'll begin making batteries themselves -- but why not let somebody else make the battery to their specs? 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 01, 2013, 12:07:39 PM
Has anyone been following the legal aspect of tesla's direct selling?

Is the pushback they've been getting from some states a material hindrance or just noise?

I like Elon Musk's argument.  He basically stated that if the dealers add value (as they claim) then "obviously" Tesla does not have an unfair economic advantage in selling direct.

Imagine making Amazon.com illegal because they sell direct to consumers without a brick and mortar store.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: plato1976 on June 01, 2013, 02:33:46 PM
txlaw,

I cannot make a judgement if TSLA is overvalued. But I think the puzzle is more about FIAT being way undervalued.

/plato1976

Toyota and Daimler are big Tesla investors:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2013/06/01/what-do-toyota-and-mercedes-see-in-tesla-a-bit-of-themselves/

Daimler, for instance, uses a Tesla battery in the electric version of its Smart city car. And its upcoming Mercedes B-class EV, which goes on sale in 2014, will feature a Tesla powertrain. Toyota, meanwhile, gave Tesla a $100 million contract to supply the  electric motor, power electronics, battery, gearbox and software for the new $50,000 RAV4 EV. The SUVs are made alongside Tesla’s Model S sedan in a Fremont, Calif., factory formerly operated by Toyota and General Motors GM -2.17%. Toyota sold the plant to Tesla in 2010 for $42 million.

I like Tesla the company a lot, and I think Musk will be successful with it.  Not only is he building a fantastic brand for EVs that any of the big auto guys would love to have (maybe Tesla is the new BMW or Porsche in terms of brand value?), but he's also doing deals with folks like Toyota and Mercedes (as noted by Eric above) to provide the guts of some of their new releases.

Having said all of the above, I find the current market valuation puzzling.  It's weird that Fiat/Chrysler is worth less to the market than Tesla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: deadspace on June 01, 2013, 05:27:03 PM
No cost advantage in buying from Panasonic?

Hmm...  does Panasonic have a monopoly in batteries, or is the battery a commodity?  What pricing power does Panasonic have?

My understanding is that a battery is a commodity and prices will come down.  You can make your own, but isn't it more important to make the best car, since they are selling cars and not batteries?

Tesla makes the best car.  Best electric car, but also the best car of any variety.  The absolute best.

Someone will come along and sell them a cheaper battery if Panasonic rips them off.  Maybe they'll begin making batteries themselves -- but why not let somebody else make the battery to their specs?

Well you might be right.  I just don't know. And i think the jury is still out on this subject

As of now lithium ion batteries are not all the same - there are dramatic differences in terms of time to charge and discharge and number of charging cycles a battery can sustain.  Obviously if you need to get a new battery at 60,000 km thats not as good a value as a battery that will outlast the car.  With the best  battery being at such a high price relative to the car you can see price advantages going to producers of both battery and car especially in cars that are priced at the lower end of the spectrum.  It may not matter to the $100,000 car crowd but in the mass market this may be a major differentiator. 

But maybe battery production becomes simpler and commoditized to the point where all batteries are the same - they certainly don't seem to be a major differentiator in the world of smart phones  ....

time will tell.... 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 01, 2013, 08:06:42 PM
What is the base rate probability for a new high performance automaker? Can anyone name a success story?

I really don't know ... but the ones that come to mind show that a lot of things can go wrong even without the need to build a charger network.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Tucker_Sedan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeLorean_DMC-12

And even if it endures, what is the probability that shareholders will earn a decent ROI? Lots of shares coming.



Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 02, 2013, 12:15:46 AM
What is the base rate probability for a new high performance automaker? Can anyone name a success story?

I really don't know ... but the ones that come to mind show that a lot of things can go wrong even without the need to build a charger network.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Tucker_Sedan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeLorean_DMC-12

And even if it endures, what is the probability that shareholders will earn a decent ROI? Lots of shares coming.

The first DeLorean rolled off the production line in January 1981, and production was halted in late 1982.  Approximately 9,000 were made.  (source Wikipedia)

The Model S is vastly more successful than this.

(EDIT:  besides, the DeLorean was a 2 door coupe, and it wasn't reviewed as hands down the best car ever made by Consumer Reports.).  That's really the crazy thing.  You can put 5 adults in the Tesla, plus 2 more kids in the optional 3rd row seats.  This still leaves you with that trunk in the front.  And yet the Model S Performance  is faster off the line than a Porche Carrera 4S.

This is subjective, but I've always found the DeLorean to be very ugly.  And no paint options -- only in stainless steel.  Some people only buy black cars, some only white.  Few would only want stainless.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 07:27:57 AM
So I guess that this is the time that the base rate will not win.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Drokos on June 02, 2013, 08:00:10 AM
I'd be more interested to run some long-term top down estimates. Tesla has a huge advantages in that it has no pension and debt overhang(at least not the the extent of most automakers. Just comparing Tesla's current valuation to the market cap of the other auto companies is a mistake IMO. If you look at the total enterprise value of the industry, it seems to be  at least $500b. Of course a lot could still change, but I dont think that in a bull case it would be unreasonable to think Tesla would could get 10% of the market in 10 years. ~$50b company. I personally think the bull case chance is fairly high, if its 50/50 a 5-bagger or a 0, that's still a decent play.  Of course that is overly simplistic back of the envelope number, and assumes Tesla has the same margins and valuation as the rest of the industry. I don't have a position or much knowledge to add, that was just my quick take away.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 08:34:41 AM
Quote
I dont think that in a bull case it would be unreasonable to think Tesla would could get 10% of the market in 10 years. ~$50b company. I personally think the bull case chance is fairly high, if its 50/50 a 5-bagger or a 0, that's still a decent play.

It took Toyota 35 years to reach the 10% milestone in the US with a truly disruptive product technology (the unibody) and the greatest innovative leap in manufacturing practices (Toyota Production System) since Henry Ford.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on June 02, 2013, 10:52:12 AM
Quote
I dont think that in a bull case it would be unreasonable to think Tesla would could get 10% of the market in 10 years. ~$50b company. I personally think the bull case chance is fairly high, if its 50/50 a 5-bagger or a 0, that's still a decent play.

It took Toyota 35 years to reach the 10% milestone in the US with a truly disruptive product technology (the unibody) and the greatest innovative leap in manufacturing practices (Toyota Production System) since Henry Ford.

Yeah, but Toyota started at a very different place and time compared to Tesla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 11:13:50 AM
Yeah, but Toyota started at a very different place and time compared to Tesla.

Yes, you are right. I should have said that they were a successful and profitable mass producer in Japan, that could bankroll for years the capex, R&D, and marketing expenses necessary for that new American market.

Also they were competing against an uncompetitive high cost labor force, not like the current restructured "Detroit" producers.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: bengrahamofthenorth on June 02, 2013, 11:29:30 AM
I'm just intrigued by the possible network effects from the recharging stations. There could be a nice first mover advantage for Tesla by deploying a massive number of supercharger stations. Also, for all the doubters of electrics going main stream just imagine how incredible battery ranges and recharging times will be in 5 or 10 years from now. I'm starting to see the tipping point and wonder when the big car companies will actually start making compelling long range EV models. Having EV cars and solar will really help solve some big problems for mankind.

I have no position in Tesla although I am long Fiat.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: shalab on June 02, 2013, 11:48:52 AM
'm just intrigued by the possible network effects from the recharging stations.

Bingo - you nailed it on the head.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 11:54:29 AM
There could be a nice first mover advantage for Tesla by deploying a massive number of supercharger stations.

You cannot have it both ways. Either the superchargers cost only $250K each and anyone can build it … even Tesla. Or it's prohibitively expensive that it becomes a barrier to entry, that Tesla cannot afford it.

Also it's not like there is a layer of software developers in need of standards, so network economies are not apparent here.

When the viability of EVs become apparent, as it most probably will, that charging part of the business will have thin margins like any petrol station. Maybe more so if cheap distributed solar fragments the industry.

People are talking here as if this was a software business like Microsoft or Apple where things scale over night. Saying the kind of things that VCs and Ron Johnson like to say.

And I'm still waiting for that base probability.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 02, 2013, 01:05:33 PM
And I'm still waiting for that base probability.

You might consider stiffing us on the tip and post a bad review on Yelp.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 01:18:14 PM
You might consider stiffing us on the tip and post a bad review on Yelp.

Well, if Eric likes the car that must count for something.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: OracleofCarolina on June 02, 2013, 01:27:48 PM
speaking of Tesla..I justed moved to Bellevue, Washington and noticed they have a store in the mall.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 02, 2013, 01:31:22 PM
You might consider stiffing us on the tip and post a bad review on Yelp.

Well, if Eric likes the car that must count for something.

I just keep getting lazier and lazier.  I had to take two of our cars in to get serviced and it's just a hassle when you get to three or four cars.  In this neighborhood you regularly see Maseratis and Bentleys.  It's a very strange neighborhood.  But now I see Tesla S cars quite frequently.  It has rapidly gained acceptance here as a luxury car, where the hoity toity crowd buys cars like shoes.  I have a front row seat to see what the luxury vehicle trend is.  Sort of like counting rail cars.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 01:49:56 PM
I guess Tesla is worth, at most, only a niche brand valuation then.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 02, 2013, 02:15:30 PM
I wouldn't feel comfortable owning the stock, but I like the idea of owning the car.

Other ways of making money with less chance of failure (like my BofA shares).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 02, 2013, 02:18:54 PM
It looks like they've updated their page with projections for the new supercharger stations at various completion intervals through end of 2015:

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger


Tesla Superchargers represent the most advanced charging technology in the world, capable of charging Model S nearly 20x faster than competing EVs. Our second generation Supercharging technology, available soon at all Supercharger stations, reduces charging time by 30% and provides half a charge in just 20 minutes.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 02, 2013, 02:42:15 PM
And I wouldn't feel comfortable having a Bank of America checking account, but I like the stock.

I wouldn't feel comfortable owning the stock, but I like the idea of owning the car.

Other ways of making money with less chance of failure (like my BofA shares).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 02, 2013, 05:24:34 PM
And I wouldn't feel comfortable having a Bank of America checking account, but I like the stock.

I wouldn't feel comfortable owning the stock, but I like the idea of owning the car.

Other ways of making money with less chance of failure (like my BofA shares).

I own BofA stock and use their many products at the bank (checking/saving/credit card).
Both winning proposition for me.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: One World Trader on June 02, 2013, 05:28:20 PM
PlanMaestro - Agreed!

Eric - for president! :)

Brilliant idea, however I think someone(s) is(are) going to want to get paid before the mainstream switch happens to electric, but it will happen! I am reminded of the famous investor that said to look for businesses that forever change the paradigm in its field! Does anyone remember who this was?

For example..the paradigms would be the only way to build bridges and buildings are with brick and mortar or concrete, then came Carnegie steel! The only way to light the streets was with a gas lamp..then came Edison and Tesla with the lightbulb! The only way to rent a movie is to go to blockbuster or movie gallery or something...then came netflix! Now comes Tesla with the electric car..The only way to drive a good car is to use one that runs on gasoline.....I should have known better! I think the question now is can this become widely popular and be highly favored? More immediately for today..can this at least become profitable? I think in terms of its paradigm shifting ability!




Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 03, 2013, 10:13:58 AM
The Long Road Ahead for Tesla


http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/the-long-road-ahead-for-tesla/ (http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/the-long-road-ahead-for-tesla/)

The chief executive of Tesla, Elon Musk, has to sell 540,000 electric vehicles a year. At least that is what may be needed for the automaker to be worth $43 billion, according to a Breakingviews calculator.

Reaching that stock market valuation by 2022 is one target in Mr. Musk’s long-term incentive plan. Hitting that and 10 operational targets could, on simplified assumptions, bag him up to $1.8 billion.


....
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 17, 2013, 03:48:38 PM
Tesla Clashes With Car Dealers


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578541902814606098.html?mod=WSJ_business_LeadStoryRotator (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578541902814606098.html?mod=WSJ_business_LeadStoryRotator)


Elon Musk made a fortune disrupting the status quo in online shopping and renewable energy. Now he's up against his toughest challenge yet: Local car dealers.

Mr. Musk, the billionaire behind PayPal and now Tesla Motors Inc., TSLA +1.89%wants to sell his $70,000 Tesla electric luxury vehicles directly to consumers, bypassing franchised automobile dealers. Dealers are flexing their considerable muscle in states including Texas and Virginia to stop him.

The latest battleground is North Carolina, where the Republican-controlled state Senate last month unanimously approved a measure that would block Tesla from selling online, its only sales outlet here. Tesla has staged whiz-bang test drives for legislators in front of the State House and hired one of the state's most influential lobbyists to stave off a similar vote in the House before the legislative session ends in early July.


....
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on June 21, 2013, 05:05:53 AM
Fast or Free: Tesla introduces a battery swap option
http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on June 21, 2013, 06:51:55 AM
Because in America when you can't compete peacefully in an open marketplace you get the government to use its guns to protect your profits from smaller competitors with better ideas.  Without government who would use violence to ban companies from selling directly to consumers without a middleman?    If only IBM would have gotten together with Smith-Corona and paid off the government to squash the computer industry to protect the typewriter business from competition instead of trying to adapt to the new reality all those typewriter manufacturing jobs wouldn't have been lost.  Capitalism is just so cruel.

Tesla Clashes With Car Dealers


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578541902814606098.html?mod=WSJ_business_LeadStoryRotator (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578541902814606098.html?mod=WSJ_business_LeadStoryRotator)


Elon Musk made a fortune disrupting the status quo in online shopping and renewable energy. Now he's up against his toughest challenge yet: Local car dealers.

Mr. Musk, the billionaire behind PayPal and now Tesla Motors Inc., TSLA +1.89%wants to sell his $70,000 Tesla electric luxury vehicles directly to consumers, bypassing franchised automobile dealers. Dealers are flexing their considerable muscle in states including Texas and Virginia to stop him.

The latest battleground is North Carolina, where the Republican-controlled state Senate last month unanimously approved a measure that would block Tesla from selling online, its only sales outlet here. Tesla has staged whiz-bang test drives for legislators in front of the State House and hired one of the state's most influential lobbyists to stave off a similar vote in the House before the legislative session ends in early July.


....
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: LC on June 21, 2013, 07:48:36 AM
The government is just protecting the consumer. Just about everyone has an excellent, heartwarming experience with car salesmen....the government doesn't just want that to go away!  ;)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on June 21, 2013, 08:10:50 AM
The government is just protecting the consumer. Just about everyone has an excellent, heartwarming experience with car salesmen....the government doesn't just want that to go away!  ;)

Yes, but we can all take comfort in the fact that regardless of what happens there will always be used car salesmen.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on June 21, 2013, 11:54:59 AM
Fast or Free: Tesla introduces a battery swap option
http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap

This is pretty unexpected and pretty awesome.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 21, 2013, 11:59:33 AM
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/348115440440066049

auto dealers trying to pretty much ban Tesla from New York state..  :-\
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Uccmal on June 21, 2013, 01:11:06 PM
That battery swap idea is so awesome.  The simplicity and ingenuity of this company reminds me of another much admired company discussed on this message board.

No wonder the other car makers and dealers are afraid.  I would pay extra just to deal with Tesla, rather than play the "I've got to talk to my manager game". 

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 21, 2013, 08:58:40 PM
I've been reading the Tesla Forum on the Tesla company site.  It's where a bunch of Tesla owners and fans discuss what it can and can't do, and speculate on what the company will announce next.

I read about the fast battery swapping capability a while ago and for the past month several posters there have guessed correctly that the big announcement would be battery swapping at supercharger stations.  I guess Elon hinted that it would be something "right under your nose", which is where the battery resides.

I believe somebody else pointed out that Project Better Place was headquartered directly across the street from Tesla in Palo Alto.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 21, 2013, 10:36:15 PM
Battery swapping has actually been hinted at for years, so not a big surprise for those who follow tesla closely. But there always seemed to be the possibility that they wouldn't push for the feature unless there was external pressure for it, keeping it as an option. Guess they decided it was worth it, even if the vast majority of charges are done at home and at superchargers, it can make sense it if it convinces enough fence-sitters to buy Teslas...

Musk said that Shai Agassi of Better Place actually got the idea from a visit at Tesla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 21, 2013, 11:02:34 PM
Guess they decided it was worth it, even if the vast majority of charges are done at home and at superchargers, it can make sense it if it convinces enough fence-sitters to buy Teslas...

I believe the Superchargers get you 50% of your charge at a fast pace, then the charging time gets considerably longer if you wish to hang around for the complete charge.  This I understand to be due to the battery -- similarly, your iPhone battery charges to the 50% point relatively quickly, then slows down.

So if you were travelling at 80 mph or so, charging down I5 from Seattle to Los Angeles, you aren't going to like the idea of spending 20 minutes or 30 minutes every 100 miles at a Supercharger station.  And much longer possibly as more Model S cars arrive on the road (and all waiting for that free super charge).

"I'm in a hurry, my time is valuable, I'd rather have a full charge for 90 bucks".  This makes a lot of sense to me.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on June 22, 2013, 07:05:12 AM
The most interesting part about battery swapping is the potential for a new business model: buy the chassis, rent the battery.

There are a lot of advantages to this model for both Tesla and its customers:
 - Reduce the up-front cost of buying the vehicle
 - Create a recurring revenue stream
 - Battery swap would be free for renters
 - Battery swap wouldn't require you to recover your original battery
 - You will never have to buy a new battery
 - As battery tech improves, your battery will improve for free

I'm sure there are a lot more.  As a business model, this is very compelling.

One challenge with battery swapping is that they won't be able to offer it for smaller vehicles without doubling their investment.  Good thing the Model X shares its chassis with the Model S.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 08:24:26 AM
I agree VAL9000.

It's also impractical for everyone to purchase a battery that has 500 miles of range (and a battery like that will be available relatively soon I imagine).

It makes more sense to own a shorter-range battery and "rent" the 500 mile range battery for your long range holiday weekend driving.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 08:44:43 AM
One challenge with battery swapping is that they won't be able to offer it for smaller vehicles without doubling their investment.  Good thing the Model X shares its chassis with the Model S.


One Tesla fan rendered a guess at what the compact model might look like:

http://www.theophiluschin.com/?p=5161

Perhaps they can do that with the same battery as the Model S.

You only need to make it shorter for compact parking spaces -- people don't really want their interior to be crammed.  Normally cars are made super small for gas mileage reasons -- not as big an issue when the large Model S is getting 90 MPG equivalent.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: bargainman on June 22, 2013, 09:03:44 AM
Guess they decided it was worth it, even if the vast majority of charges are done at home and at superchargers, it can make sense it if it convinces enough fence-sitters to buy Teslas...

I believe the Superchargers get you 50% of your charge at a fast pace, then the charging time gets considerably longer if you wish to hang around for the complete charge.  This I understand to be due to the battery -- similarly, your iPhone battery charges to the 50% point relatively quickly, then slows down.

So if you were travelling at 80 mph or so, charging down I5 from Seattle to Los Angeles, you aren't going to like the idea of spending 20 minutes or 30 minutes every 100 miles at a Supercharger station.  And much longer possibly as more Model S cars arrive on the road (and all waiting for that free super charge).

"I'm in a hurry, my time is valuable, I'd rather have a full charge for 90 bucks".  This makes a lot of sense to me.

Interesting..  they could start either building these around landmarks and entertainment centers, or start putting them in hotels or other places, thus driving business to those places and maybe getting licensing fees as well.  Kind of how train stations started opening up convenience stores etc..  A bit far fetched but not too much..  I doubt it'll be a big source of revenue though.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 04:07:08 PM
Perhaps somebody here knows more about battery technology...

My understanding is that Lithium-ion is especially attractive due to it's fast recharging.  If there were perhaps a higher energy density battery that could be made (at the expense of slow recharge), then battery swap would be the application to make that battery commercially viable.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on June 22, 2013, 05:14:26 PM
Or... just get a second car.  Even a rental.

The car is cool (and pricey) enough that I don't think long-distance driving will matter too much???
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 06:07:54 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on June 22, 2013, 06:51:12 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 07:14:17 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.

They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on June 22, 2013, 07:27:29 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.

They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years.

Even if you buy a car for $40k, you can still afford a parking spot.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 07:42:34 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.

They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years.

Even if you buy a car for $40k, you can still afford a parking spot.

$30k. 

One thing you are forgetting is that butlers are expensive these days.  The rich and famous in their $30k cars...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: bargainman on June 22, 2013, 07:45:47 PM
My understanding is that Lithium-ion is especially attractive due to it's fast recharging.  If there were perhaps a higher energy density battery that could be made (at the expense of slow recharge), then battery swap would be the application to make that battery commercially viable.

There will be if they ever commercialize this girl's science project :-)

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_23445865/saratoga-teen-wins-intel-award-longer-lasting-cell
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on June 22, 2013, 08:11:54 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.

They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years.

Even if you buy a car for $40k, you can still afford a parking spot.

$30k. 

One thing you are forgetting is that butlers are expensive these days.  The rich and famous in their $30k cars...

$30k is not exactly the people's car.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 22, 2013, 08:17:27 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.

They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years.

Even if you buy a car for $40k, you can still afford a parking spot.

$30k. 

One thing you are forgetting is that butlers are expensive these days.  The rich and famous in their $30k cars...

$30k is not exactly the people's car.

I didn't realize that $30k cars all have private parking spots.  My bad.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on June 22, 2013, 08:26:15 PM
The battery swap is not just about long distance driving -- people in cities that don't have a driveway/garage and park on the street.  They have nowhere to plug in.  So swapping is their best option.

If you can afford a Tesla, you can afford to pay for a parking spot. It'll cost you more when someone decides to key your car.

They will have a car out at 1/2 the price in 3 years.

Even if you buy a car for $40k, you can still afford a parking spot.

$30k. 

One thing you are forgetting is that butlers are expensive these days.  The rich and famous in their $30k cars...

$30k is not exactly the people's car.

I didn't realize that $30k cars all have private parking spots.  My bad.

Trying parking a $30k car in the streets of San Francisco for month and your car will tell you a story about how great people's parallel parking skills are. They'll also tell you what people do with their keys when they walk home drunk from bars.

A $200 a month parking spot will start looking quite economical compared to your auto detailing bills.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 24, 2013, 01:49:54 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-24/tesla-takeover-turns-tenuous-given-valuation-real-m-a.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-24/tesla-takeover-turns-tenuous-given-valuation-real-m-a.html)


Tesla Takeover Turns Tenuous Given Valuation
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Kiltacular on July 08, 2013, 08:41:39 PM
For Tesla fans, you'll love this:

http://boards.fool.com/if-michaelservet-will-test-drive-the-model-s-30765645.aspx

Quote
"But in the real-world test drive something else really became apparent that we don’t see on paper, in any quantitative comparisons. Tesla’s explosion of power was instantaneous, and without drama.

By contrast, floor any twin-turbo 500+hp V8 for several seconds and you’ll take off, but everyone -- the cars around you, your neighbors down the street, the cops in the diner – will take notice. Other drivers will give you those looks. Maybe those gestures. That whole scene is so high school. In the Tesla, mash the throttle and you woosh forward. No auto-downshifting with the engine reving up the torque curve, no loud screaming pitch. You’re just cool, man, cool. And fast."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on July 17, 2013, 05:36:00 PM
Simply amazing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8_lfxPI5ObM
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on July 17, 2013, 05:42:17 PM
My VIN # indicates I'm getting the 14,606th out of production.  Reportedly they are into the 15,000s now.  Not bad for another DeLorean.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 17, 2013, 05:58:38 PM
My VIN # indicates I'm getting the 14,606th out of production.  Reportedly they are into the 15,000s now.  Not bad for another DeLorean.

They recently said they're "confident" they'll get to 800 cars per week by late 2014. Still a small part of the capacity of the NUMMI plant that they bought, though (I think it can handle 500k/year).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on July 17, 2013, 10:22:49 PM
Simply amazing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8_lfxPI5ObM

sweet video.

a year or two ago a friend told me about how they bought the biggest stamp press in the world. I thought they were crazy to be burning through money like that, but now their delivering on that vision. Watching that video makes it make all the more sense. I hope they continue innovating both with their design and battery technology.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on July 22, 2013, 09:09:47 AM
I sold my position today (still shy of being able to buy a Tesla).  +356% over 20 months.  I'm now at 42% cash.

My reason for selling is that I think the ~10 or so major auto manufacturers will be able to offer competing vehicles faster than TSLA will be able to grow into its ~$15bn valuation.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 01, 2013, 05:27:47 PM
Elon Musk answering questions for an hour in a town hall format:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n-xsEjq7pk

Eric, did you attend?  8)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 06, 2013, 08:32:53 AM
Tesla raised prices over the past week.  It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week).

The options went up in price.  The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500.  The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500.  21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500.  Etc...  Etc...

So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 06, 2013, 08:49:54 AM
Tesla raised prices over the past week.  It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week).

The options went up in price.  The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500.  The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500.  21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500.  Etc...  Etc...

So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand.

not apples to apples but in contrast,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/gm-cuts-chevy-volt-price-by-5-000-to-spur-sales.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/gm-cuts-chevy-volt-price-by-5-000-to-spur-sales.html)

.GM Cuts Chevy Volt Price by $5,000 to Spur Sales
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on August 06, 2013, 09:12:01 AM
Tesla raised prices over the past week.  It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week).

The options went up in price.  The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500.  The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500.  21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500.  Etc...  Etc...

So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand.

pretty decent bump in prices!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on August 06, 2013, 09:54:53 AM
Musk is kicking GM's ass!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on August 06, 2013, 12:13:38 PM
Quote
Tesla raised prices over the past week.  It would cost an extra $8,000 to order my car today (versus last week).

The options went up in price.  The premium sound package went up from $800 to $2,500.  The rear facing child seats went from $1,500 to $2,500.  21" wheels went from $3,500 to $4,500.  Etc...  Etc...

So in other words, they must be seeing strong demand.
Musk said that Tesla was going to hit the 25% gross margin target *without* emission credits... maybe this is how they will do it?

They might also be seeing strong demand too.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 06, 2013, 12:16:44 PM
They might also be seeing strong demand too.

AFAIK, they are supply limited right now. Selling everything they make with a waiting list, and just starting to deliver cars in Europe.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 07, 2013, 08:43:10 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-07/tesla-seen-posting-quarterly-loss-after-first-profit.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-07/tesla-seen-posting-quarterly-loss-after-first-profit.html)

Tesla Seen Posting Quarterly Loss After First Profit
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 07, 2013, 09:59:21 AM
If Tesla investors require a 10% return, the company must generate $1.7 billion a year in owner earnings into perpetuity in order to justify the current market cap of $17.5 billion. If 2013 is another year of no net earnings, that return figure rises to $1.87 billion.

What if investors are not willing to pay for profits into perpetuity, instead say, 20 years? From a hypothetical base of 37 million, and with a 10% discount rate, annual earnings must grow at a rate of 41% compounded annually for the next 20 years to justify the current price.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 07, 2013, 01:21:54 PM
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2145371887x0x682962/f9e27702-90ed-4516-a16e-dc720c411089/Q2%2713%20Tesla%20Motors%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf

Up 14+% after hours.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 07, 2013, 05:30:03 PM

Just submitted this to value investors club. But not sure it would ever see the light of day there, so reposting here as well.

How much further can Tesla stock price rise?

If I were a Tesla Fanboy + die hard TSLA investor with rose colored glasses and also an investor with a 10 year horizon, I would be imagining Tesla becoming the No:1 Luxury car maker in the world by 2023. In 2012, it was BMW and they sold 350000 cars beating Mercedes Benz which sold 305000 cars.

Now BMW sales includes the Mini and the high selling 3 series cars which retail for $40000-$50000. One can argue most of their sales were these lower priced cars and the ultra luxury (>$80000) cars were just a small % of the total. But since I am a true believer here, I am going to assume 50% of that number i.e. 175000 cars were the cars with a retail average price of $80000.

Why am I fixated upon this $80000 figure? Or as some may ask, where did I pull it out of ? Well in 2013 Q2 Tesla just announced they sold 5150 cars with revenues of $405 million. Dividing revenues by car sales, I figured that each car sold for approximately $80000.

Tesla also told us that they are on track to hit record gross margins of 25% by Q4 2013. I am just going to assume they are already there now (why not!). So they make gross profits of approximately $20000 per car. Thats very cool!

Now like every car company Tesla has to have some SG&A expense (I know, i know they are going to sell these things online and by pass dealers etc), but they still have to advertise, pay for overheads etc, so lets assume a minimal 5% of Sales Prices as SG&A.

Tesla is a new generation HiTech car company, so they have probably have to invest in R&D, but lets assume thats just 2.5% of the sales price. (Not much I know, but we are bullish here, especially since I marked SG&A at 5%). Also remember R&D is what sustains their Moat, so they literally have to do this.

Again like any other manufacturer, they also probably have some CapEx. Please indulge me here a bit by ignoring the growth CapEx they might spend. Lets just assume they only spend on maintaining the place. So standard maintenance CapEx of 2.5% of Revenues (or sales price).

Lets also assume, they don't spend money on anything else unnecessary like Electric Charging Stations (why is the Fed Govt there for?), new plants, interest expense etc. all zero We are running a mean shop here!

How do the numbers look now if they are going to sell 175000 cars a year in 2023?

Revenues : 175K*80K = $14 billion
Cost of goods: 14bill*(1-25%) = $10.5 billion
Gross Income = $3.5 billion

SG&A Expense = 5%*14bill = $0.7 billion
R&D Expense = 2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion
Maintenance CapEx=2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion
Other Expenses = 0%*$0 = $0 billion

Operating Income = $3.5-$0.7-$0.35-$0.35 = $2.1 billion

Now comes the sad part. After 10 years when we have Tesla cars everywhere on the road, this clean energy efficient car becomes the Big Car company, so Uncle Sam would want to take his share, unlike now, when companies such as Tesla are being incubated by being given the preferential tax credits. But lets assume Tesla manages to pay the average 25% tax rate.

Taxes Owed = 25%*2.1 bill = $0.525 bill

Therefore

Net Income = $2.1-$0.525 = $1.575 bill

Currently Tesla seems to have approximately 125 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. Lets assume they are not going to issue any new stock anymore or even pay out in stock options.

So, 10 years from now, when Tesla is a market leader in the luxury car segment, their EPS will be about $1.575 bill/ 125 mill = $12.6 (compared to 20 cents this quarter, but this just shows the hidden potential here).

In 10 years, I don’t know what the interest rates are going to be or what the PE on the SP500 is going to be like, but I am going to assume it will be just like today. It is fair to assume car companies will also probably be trading around the same PE multiple as today.

BMW is currently trading at PE of 9 (but there is a mess in Europe now, so I am going to focus on US)
Ford is currently trading at PE of 11 (But thats Ford, they just don't have the cachet)
GM is trading at PE of 12.5 (seems reasonable)

I think I like GM better, after all Tesla is going to be just like GM was to the prior generation of Americans. So I am going to use GM’s multiple.

Finally,
Applying a multiple of 12.5 to Tesla EPS of 12.6 (in 2023) we get
Hold your breath.....

Fair Value Stock price in the year 2023 of $158.76 !!!!

It is trading today after hours at? $153.2.

So I am on track to get a cumulative 10 year return of  an amazing 3.63% or 36 bps annualized!!!!!!!! What’s the 3 month T-Bill yield again?

Oops!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Investmentacct on August 07, 2013, 05:54:59 PM

Can you run numbers  considering another scenario of tesla becoming car for masses since they would eventually sell lower price entry cars abt 30K.


Just submitted this to value investors club. But not sure it would ever see the light of day there, so reposting here as well.

How much further can Tesla stock price rise?

If I were a Tesla Fanboy + die hard TSLA investor with rose colored glasses and also an investor with a 10 year horizon, I would be imagining Tesla becoming the No:1 Luxury car maker in the world by 2023. In 2012, it was BMW and they sold 350000 cars beating Mercedes Benz which sold 305000 cars.

Now BMW sales includes the Mini and the high selling 3 series cars which retail for $40000-$50000. One can argue most of their sales were these lower priced cars and the ultra luxury (>$80000) cars were just a small % of the total. But since I am a true believer here, I am going to assume 50% of that number i.e. 175000 cars were the cars with a retail average price of $80000.

Why am I fixated upon this $80000 figure? Or as some may ask, where did I pull it out of ? Well in 2013 Q2 Tesla just announced they sold 5150 cars with revenues of $405 million. Dividing revenues by car sales, I figured that each car sold for approximately $80000.

Tesla also told us that they are on track to hit record gross margins of 25% by Q4 2013. I am just going to assume they are already there now (why not!). So they make gross profits of approximately $20000 per car. Thats very cool!

Now like every car company Tesla has to have some SG&A expense (I know, i know they are going to sell these things online and by pass dealers etc), but they still have to advertise, pay for overheads etc, so lets assume a minimal 5% of Sales Prices as SG&A.

Tesla is a new generation HiTech car company, so they have probably have to invest in R&D, but lets assume thats just 2.5% of the sales price. (Not much I know, but we are bullish here, especially since I marked SG&A at 5%). Also remember R&D is what sustains their Moat, so they literally have to do this.

Again like any other manufacturer, they also probably have some CapEx. Please indulge me here a bit by ignoring the growth CapEx they might spend. Lets just assume they only spend on maintaining the place. So standard maintenance CapEx of 2.5% of Revenues (or sales price).

Lets also assume, they don't spend money on anything else unnecessary like Electric Charging Stations (why is the Fed Govt there for?), new plants, interest expense etc. all zero We are running a mean shop here!

How do the numbers look now if they are going to sell 175000 cars a year in 2023?

Revenues : 175K*80K = $14 billion
Cost of goods: 14bill*(1-25%) = $10.5 billion
Gross Income = $3.5 billion

SG&A Expense = 5%*14bill = $0.7 billion
R&D Expense = 2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion
Maintenance CapEx=2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion
Other Expenses = 0%*$0 = $0 billion

Operating Income = $3.5-$0.7-$0.35-$0.35 = $2.1 billion

Now comes the sad part. After 10 years when we have Tesla cars everywhere on the road, this clean energy efficient car becomes the Big Car company, so Uncle Sam would want to take his share, unlike now, when companies such as Tesla are being incubated by being given the preferential tax credits. But lets assume Tesla manages to pay the average 25% tax rate.

Taxes Owed = 25%*2.1 bill = $0.525 bill

Therefore

Net Income = $2.1-$0.525 = $1.575 bill

Currently Tesla seems to have approximately 125 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. Lets assume they are not going to issue any new stock anymore or even pay out in stock options.

So, 10 years from now, when Tesla is a market leader in the luxury car segment, their EPS will be about $1.575 bill/ 125 mill = $12.6 (compared to 20 cents this quarter, but this just shows the hidden potential here).

In 10 years, I don’t know what the interest rates are going to be or what the PE on the SP500 is going to be like, but I am going to assume it will be just like today. It is fair to assume car companies will also probably be trading around the same PE multiple as today.

BMW is currently trading at PE of 9 (but there is a mess in Europe now, so I am going to focus on US)
Ford is currently trading at PE of 11 (But thats Ford, they just don't have the cachet)
GM is trading at PE of 12.5 (seems reasonable)

I think I like GM better, after all Tesla is going to be just like GM was to the prior generation of Americans. So I am going to use GM’s multiple.

Finally,
Applying a multiple of 12.5 to Tesla EPS of 12.6 (in 2023) we get
Hold your breath.....

Fair Value Stock price in the year 2023 of $158.76 !!!!

It is trading today after hours at? $153.2.

So I am on track to get a cumulative 10 year return of  an amazing 3.63% or 36 bps annualized!!!!!!!! What’s the 3 month T-Bill yield again?

Oops!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: beerbaron on August 07, 2013, 06:27:46 PM

Can you run numbers  considering another scenario of tesla becoming car for masses since they would eventually sell lower price entry cars abt 30K.


Just submitted this to value investors club. But not sure it would ever see the light of day there, so reposting here as well.

How much further can Tesla stock price rise?

If I were a Tesla Fanboy + die hard TSLA investor with rose colored glasses and also an investor with a 10 year horizon, I would be imagining Tesla becoming the No:1 Luxury car maker in the world by 2023. In 2012, it was BMW and they sold 350000 cars beating Mercedes Benz which sold 305000 cars.

Now BMW sales includes the Mini and the high selling 3 series cars which retail for $40000-$50000. One can argue most of their sales were these lower priced cars and the ultra luxury (>$80000) cars were just a small % of the total. But since I am a true believer here, I am going to assume 50% of that number i.e. 175000 cars were the cars with a retail average price of $80000.

Why am I fixated upon this $80000 figure? Or as some may ask, where did I pull it out of ? Well in 2013 Q2 Tesla just announced they sold 5150 cars with revenues of $405 million. Dividing revenues by car sales, I figured that each car sold for approximately $80000.

Tesla also told us that they are on track to hit record gross margins of 25% by Q4 2013. I am just going to assume they are already there now (why not!). So they make gross profits of approximately $20000 per car. Thats very cool!

Now like every car company Tesla has to have some SG&A expense (I know, i know they are going to sell these things online and by pass dealers etc), but they still have to advertise, pay for overheads etc, so lets assume a minimal 5% of Sales Prices as SG&A.

Tesla is a new generation HiTech car company, so they have probably have to invest in R&D, but lets assume thats just 2.5% of the sales price. (Not much I know, but we are bullish here, especially since I marked SG&A at 5%). Also remember R&D is what sustains their Moat, so they literally have to do this.

Again like any other manufacturer, they also probably have some CapEx. Please indulge me here a bit by ignoring the growth CapEx they might spend. Lets just assume they only spend on maintaining the place. So standard maintenance CapEx of 2.5% of Revenues (or sales price).

Lets also assume, they don't spend money on anything else unnecessary like Electric Charging Stations (why is the Fed Govt there for?), new plants, interest expense etc. all zero We are running a mean shop here!

How do the numbers look now if they are going to sell 175000 cars a year in 2023?

Revenues : 175K*80K = $14 billion
Cost of goods: 14bill*(1-25%) = $10.5 billion
Gross Income = $3.5 billion

SG&A Expense = 5%*14bill = $0.7 billion
R&D Expense = 2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion
Maintenance CapEx=2.5%*14bill = $0.35 billion
Other Expenses = 0%*$0 = $0 billion

Operating Income = $3.5-$0.7-$0.35-$0.35 = $2.1 billion

Now comes the sad part. After 10 years when we have Tesla cars everywhere on the road, this clean energy efficient car becomes the Big Car company, so Uncle Sam would want to take his share, unlike now, when companies such as Tesla are being incubated by being given the preferential tax credits. But lets assume Tesla manages to pay the average 25% tax rate.

Taxes Owed = 25%*2.1 bill = $0.525 bill

Therefore

Net Income = $2.1-$0.525 = $1.575 bill

Currently Tesla seems to have approximately 125 million shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis. Lets assume they are not going to issue any new stock anymore or even pay out in stock options.

So, 10 years from now, when Tesla is a market leader in the luxury car segment, their EPS will be about $1.575 bill/ 125 mill = $12.6 (compared to 20 cents this quarter, but this just shows the hidden potential here).

In 10 years, I don’t know what the interest rates are going to be or what the PE on the SP500 is going to be like, but I am going to assume it will be just like today. It is fair to assume car companies will also probably be trading around the same PE multiple as today.

BMW is currently trading at PE of 9 (but there is a mess in Europe now, so I am going to focus on US)
Ford is currently trading at PE of 11 (But thats Ford, they just don't have the cachet)
GM is trading at PE of 12.5 (seems reasonable)

I think I like GM better, after all Tesla is going to be just like GM was to the prior generation of Americans. So I am going to use GM’s multiple.

Finally,
Applying a multiple of 12.5 to Tesla EPS of 12.6 (in 2023) we get
Hold your breath.....

Fair Value Stock price in the year 2023 of $158.76 !!!!

It is trading today after hours at? $153.2.

So I am on track to get a cumulative 10 year return of  an amazing 3.63% or 36 bps annualized!!!!!!!! What’s the 3 month T-Bill yield again?

Oops!

I think he makes the point quite right, if GM sells 10M cars a year an is valued at 43B, and Tesla sells 5000 cars a year and is value at 15B than something does not add up...

BeerBaron
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 07, 2013, 06:29:31 PM
I think he makes the point quite right, if GM sells 10M cars a year an is valued at 43B, and Tesla sells 5000 cars a year and is value at 15B than something does not add up...

BeerBaron

To give them credit where it's due, they are currently selling a hell of a lot more than 5,000 cars a year.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: siddharth18 on August 07, 2013, 06:31:01 PM
Are "investors" actually buying at this price? OR is this just another short sqeeze?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 07, 2013, 06:31:36 PM
I understand that argument about lower priced car. But few things to think about it are as follows

1. What would be the gross margins on the 30K car? I am guessing lower than 25% but I could be wrong. 10-15% seems reasonably optimistic.
2. How many lower priced cars do they have to sell to make up for the profit % of a 80K car. I am thinking around 3:1 ratio even if margins are 25%, 5:1 if you go with the lower margins.
3. What would be the Capital Expenditures to setup a factory, build capacity and ramp up production to those levels for the lower priced cars? The money for that has to come out of the shareholders.

It may all turn out for the best and my numbers could be way off. TSLA might just blow away my expectations. And I am personally neither long nor short this stock. Price momentum can be crazy and shorts might very well get killed until they aren't. So who knows?

I just found the meaning behind the valuation interesting.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on August 07, 2013, 06:57:29 PM
Quote
Are "investors" actually buying at this price? OR is this just another short sqeeze?
Real investors bought shares in the secondary offering this year.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on August 08, 2013, 07:16:20 AM
I think Tesla is a new industry of its own and should not be valued against gasoline based vehicle companies...  The production, marketing, maintenance are all different..... Similar to when iPhone came out and took market shares from blackberry...  Yes, they are phones, but new technology makes the own one irrelevant.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 08, 2013, 08:01:32 AM
What would you value it against? Or what is your reasonable estimate of value and how do you arrive at it for this sort of company?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jschembs on August 08, 2013, 08:06:03 AM
Hearing the "new paradigm/the Model S is a game changer/Elon is <insert your preferred deity>" arguments for owning TSLA stock are really frightening.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2013, 08:13:35 AM
I read the conference call for Q2.  Musk says that they cannot build cars any quicker right now because their suppliers can't supply them with enough parts.  Apparently their suppliers never tooled up because they didn't believe Tesla would sell this many cars.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on August 08, 2013, 08:22:36 AM
I read the conference call for Q2.  Musk says that they cannot build cars any quicker right now because their suppliers can't supply them with enough parts.  Apparently their suppliers never tooled up because they didn't believe Tesla would sell this many cars.

"One challenge to mass market electric vehicles: selling half a million cars will require more batteries than the entire laptop industry, Musk says. So we’ll need more battery factories."

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/517981/musk-35000-200-mile-ev-no-miracles-required/ (http://www.technologyreview.com/view/517981/musk-35000-200-mile-ev-no-miracles-required/)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 08, 2013, 08:23:43 AM
Hearing the "new paradigm/the Model S is a game changer/Elon is <insert your preferred deity>" arguments for owning TSLA stock are really frightening.

I agree. I love the product though and really appreciate what the company is trying to do. The cars look amazing. The Ipad'ish Console should have been done a few years ago. We have to give them credit for not only having a brave vision but having the courage to act on it.

But I just think it is wrong to place such a premium valuation on their stock so early in the company's life. What if the company isn't able to execute perfectly as expected right now? What if something goes wrong and the stock tanks back to earth? Most of the current investors, who are potential consumers might get so badly burnt that they might turn away from the company altogether severely hurting the brand. The media which is right now singing praises and helping in pumping the stock might turnaround on a dime and help in dumping it. That could cause sales reductions, employee retention issues, financial issues for the business and last but not the least, the world might lose/ at least delay an amazing product/technology. That scenario saddens me.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2013, 08:54:16 AM
Charging in five minutes. 

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516876/forget-battery-swapping-tesla-aims-to-charge-electric-cars-in-five-minutes/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2013, 09:24:54 AM
Batteries already less than 25% of the cost of the Model S:

By most estimates, the battery for the Model S that I drove should cost between $42,500 and $55,250, or half the cost of the car. But Straubel indicated that it is already much lower. “They’re way less than half, actually,” he says. “Less than a quarter in most cases.” Straubel says more can be done to lower batter costs. He’s working with cell and materials suppliers to increase energy density more, and he’s changing the shape of the cells in ways that make manufacturing them easier.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516961/how-tesla-is-driving-electric-car-innovation/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: DCG on August 08, 2013, 09:33:49 AM
What would you value it against? Or what is your reasonable estimate of value and how do you arrive at it for this sort of company?

Seems the the current valuation (which is around 70% higher than Fiat/Chrysler) is pretty extreme.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on August 08, 2013, 10:15:38 AM
Batteries already less than 25% of the cost of the Model S:

By most estimates, the battery for the Model S that I drove should cost between $42,500 and $55,250, or half the cost of the car. But Straubel indicated that it is already much lower. “They’re way less than half, actually,” he says. “Less than a quarter in most cases.” Straubel says more can be done to lower batter costs. He’s working with cell and materials suppliers to increase energy density more, and he’s changing the shape of the cells in ways that make manufacturing them easier.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516961/how-tesla-is-driving-electric-car-innovation/

Thanks for sharing Eric. So how is your car after a few days of testing it? So far so good?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: turar on August 08, 2013, 10:49:41 AM
By most estimates, the battery for the Model S that I drove should cost between $42,500 and $55,250, or half the cost of the car. But Straubel indicated that it is already much lower. “They’re way less than half, actually,” he says. “Less than a quarter in most cases.”

How would battery costs work out for a $30K car? That would require a smaller battery. If we assume that Model S batteries can be had for $25-30K in costs, how much less battery can you put in a "$30K total" car to get a reasonable range and allow for a profitable car?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 08, 2013, 10:51:26 AM
How would battery costs work out for a $30K car? That would require a smaller battery. If we assume that Model S batteries can be had for $25-30K in costs, how much less battery can you put in a "$30K total" car to get a reasonable range and allow for a profitable car?

The cost per kWh is not fixed, it's going down every year. A smaller/lighter car also needs a smaller battery to have the same driving range.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: turar on August 08, 2013, 11:10:13 AM
Model S doesn't look like it's a large car already though. How much smaller can you make a car to make it marketable?

Also, from earlier in the thread:

"One challenge to mass market electric vehicles: selling half a million cars will require more batteries than the entire laptop industry, Musk says. So we’ll need more battery factories."

Another way to put it is "we'll need a lot more lithium". Does anyone have access to lithium spot prices?

Also, an older article from 2010 discussing batteries: http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1826
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 08, 2013, 11:22:39 AM
Model S doesn't look like it's a large car already though. How much smaller can you make a car to make it marketable?

Model S has a lot more interior space than it might seem because of the two trunks (front and back) and flat floor, but even if you're talking about exterior size, there's definitely room for a smaller car that is closer in size to a BMW 3.

Lithium supply should be able to ramp up with demand. I think the salt flats of Bolivia alone hav enough of the stuff to supply the world, and lithium isn't too rare and can be recycled out of old batteries (it's not destroyed by use, unlike oil and gas)..
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: turar on August 08, 2013, 11:26:38 AM
OK, I guess we will wait and see. I have no idea how much different Model S batteries are from a regular, say, laptop batteries, but if my experience is any use, I can get 2 years worth of good work before the batteries cannot be fully charged anymore. Granted, I usually use cheaper laptops.

Can Tesla owners rotate out of their batteries easily into newer ones within a reasonable time frame?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on August 08, 2013, 11:33:58 AM
I think Tesla is a new industry of its own and should not be valued against gasoline based vehicle companies...  The production, marketing, maintenance are all different..... Similar to when iPhone came out and took market shares from blackberry...  Yes, they are phones, but new technology makes the own one irrelevant.
Hearing the "new paradigm/the Model S is a game changer/Elon is <insert your preferred deity>" arguments for owning TSLA stock are really frightening.
Made my move today.  Now have a small short position about 2.5%. Call me crazy but the excitement around the company after two earnings beats is incredible considering they still aren't making money off the cars yet (won't be long though). Crazy to think they'd have to grow bigger than Mercedes or BMW while maintaining pricing power and margin in an increasingly competitive landscape without a robust global infrastructure in the next few years for this market cap to be anywhere near reasonable.

Will they change the industry?  Most certainly. If you want to put hope and dreams in "change" then go like Obama's Facebook page. When it comes to investing,  all that matters is the money that can be made,  the probability it will be made, and how much you paid to play.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 08, 2013, 01:11:37 PM
I think Tesla is a new industry of its own and should not be valued against gasoline based vehicle companies...  The production, marketing, maintenance are all different..... Similar to when iPhone came out and took market shares from blackberry...  Yes, they are phones, but new technology makes the own one irrelevant.
Hearing the "new paradigm/the Model S is a game changer/Elon is <insert your preferred deity>" arguments for owning TSLA stock are really frightening.
Made my move today.  Now have a small short position about 2.5%. Call me crazy but the excitement around the company after two earnings beats is incredible considering they still aren't making money off the cars yet (won't be long though). Crazy to think they'd have to grow bigger than Mercedes or BMW while maintaining pricing power and margin in an increasingly competitive landscape without a robust global infrastructure in the next few years for this market cap to be anywhere near reasonable.

Will they change the industry?  Most certainly. If you want to put hope and dreams in "change" then go like Obama's Facebook page. When it comes to investing,  all that matters is the money that can be made,  the probability it will be made, and how much you paid to play.

Shorting these shares is incredibly expensive (short interest is a huge% of float). My broker wouldn't allow me a simple short. How did you go about setting up your position? I was considering using Options to setup a synthetic short (buying Put and Selling OTM calls, 2015 of course).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on August 08, 2013, 01:16:52 PM
Lithium supply should be able to ramp up with demand. I think the salt flats of Bolivia alone hav enough of the stuff to supply the world, and lithium isn't too rare and can be recycled out of old batteries (it's not destroyed by use, unlike oil and gas)..
There's only several dollars worth of lithium in a car battery.  There's a few pounds of lithium in a battery and lithium carbonate is somewhere around $5000-7000/ton depending on grade (might be $7000-$8000 now for battery-grade lithium).

The expensive part is refining the lithium carbonate into lithium and making the battery.

Lithium stocks like SQM, Rockwood, etc. might have some information on current lithium carbonate prices.  I don't think that there is a liquid spot market for lithium carbonate.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: turar on August 08, 2013, 01:50:39 PM
There's only several dollars worth of lithium in a car battery.  There's a few pounds of lithium in a battery and lithium carbonate is somewhere around $5000-7000/ton depending on grade (might be $7000-$8000 now for battery-grade lithium).

The expensive part is refining the lithium carbonate into lithium and making the battery.

Lithium stocks like SQM, Rockwood, etc. might have some information on current lithium carbonate prices.  I don't think that there is a liquid spot market for lithium carbonate.

I'm confused -- what makes the battery so expensive then, if there's "only several dollars of lithium" in it? It can't just be the cost of manufacturing. I was assuming that raw materials is the key cost in the battery. Is there some literature I can read about this?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 08, 2013, 01:56:35 PM
I'm confused -- what makes the battery so expensive then, if there's "only several dollars of lithium" in it? It can't just be the cost of manufacturing. I was assuming that raw materials is the key cost in the battery. Is there some literature I can read about this?

I'm not expert on this, but I think it's just the complexity of the manufacturing. Kind of like making a CPU. The raw materials aren't expensive, but the R&D you need to do first and then the big fab that you need to build with advanced machinery makes it expensive.

The good news is that today's complex manufacturing is tomorrow's commodity process. Making a CD was probably a complex manufacturing process in the 1970s or whatever, but now they're dirt cheap (well, we've moved to DVDs and blu-rays, but even those are pretty cheap).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2013, 03:29:34 PM
Batteries already less than 25% of the cost of the Model S:

By most estimates, the battery for the Model S that I drove should cost between $42,500 and $55,250, or half the cost of the car. But Straubel indicated that it is already much lower. “They’re way less than half, actually,” he says. “Less than a quarter in most cases.” Straubel says more can be done to lower batter costs. He’s working with cell and materials suppliers to increase energy density more, and he’s changing the shape of the cells in ways that make manufacturing them easier.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516961/how-tesla-is-driving-electric-car-innovation/

Thanks for sharing Eric. So how is your car after a few days of testing it? So far so good?

I don't have any complaints about the car.  I think the tires won't last long though.  It's fun just getting up to 30mph in a 30mph zone -- it's virtually silent, and it takes 1.7 seconds to reach 30.

Normally a performance car starts off slow and then the turbos kick in -- this car is the opposite.  The fastest part is right at the beginning.

The voice commands are interesting.  You can say "navigate to McDonalds" and it will pull them all up on the Google map -- then you just touch the one you want and it routes you.  Or you can say "play Trip Like I Do" and it will find the song on Slacker internet radio.

So I find it a bit of a novelty still.  Soon all cars will need to have that.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on August 08, 2013, 07:38:49 PM
I think Tesla is a new industry of its own and should not be valued against gasoline based vehicle companies...  The production, marketing, maintenance are all different..... Similar to when iPhone came out and took market shares from blackberry...  Yes, they are phones, but new technology makes the own one irrelevant.
Hearing the "new paradigm/the Model S is a game changer/Elon is <insert your preferred deity>" arguments for owning TSLA stock are really frightening.
Made my move today.  Now have a small short position about 2.5%. Call me crazy but the excitement around the company after two earnings beats is incredible considering they still aren't making money off the cars yet (won't be long though). Crazy to think they'd have to grow bigger than Mercedes or BMW while maintaining pricing power and margin in an increasingly competitive landscape without a robust global infrastructure in the next few years for this market cap to be anywhere near reasonable.

Will they change the industry?  Most certainly. If you want to put hope and dreams in "change" then go like Obama's Facebook page. When it comes to investing,  all that matters is the money that can be made,  the probability it will be made, and how much you paid to play.

Shorting these shares is incredibly expensive (short interest is a huge% of float). My broker wouldn't allow me a simple short. How did you go about setting up your position? I was considering using Options to setup a synthetic short (buying Put and Selling OTM calls, 2015 of course).

Short interest is significantly smaller than what it was just 4 or so months ago. Situation might be even better as shares from the new offering slowly circulate into the daily volume. I'm with Scottrade and I simply placed an order for a short sale. As far as I know, they'll charge me the 7.75% annual interest for the margin like they always have. I've never paid anything else on top of that as far as I know.

It could just be that it's easier for me because I don't have a large position. I'm only 24 years old and don't have a significant amount saved up. 2.5% of my portfolio amounts to a handful of shares. This is in part why I didn't want to do options; I didn't want exposure to a lot of 100 shares nor did I want to put an expiration on this bet. I'm typically early with my timing and have never made money on options except from selling them.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 09, 2013, 06:30:40 AM
I think Tesla is a new industry of its own and should not be valued against gasoline based vehicle companies...  The production, marketing, maintenance are all different..... Similar to when iPhone came out and took market shares from blackberry...  Yes, they are phones, but new technology makes the own one irrelevant.
Hearing the "new paradigm/the Model S is a game changer/Elon is <insert your preferred deity>" arguments for owning TSLA stock are really frightening.
Made my move today.  Now have a small short position about 2.5%. Call me crazy but the excitement around the company after two earnings beats is incredible considering they still aren't making money off the cars yet (won't be long though). Crazy to think they'd have to grow bigger than Mercedes or BMW while maintaining pricing power and margin in an increasingly competitive landscape without a robust global infrastructure in the next few years for this market cap to be anywhere near reasonable.

Will they change the industry?  Most certainly. If you want to put hope and dreams in "change" then go like Obama's Facebook page. When it comes to investing,  all that matters is the money that can be made,  the probability it will be made, and how much you paid to play.

Shorting these shares is incredibly expensive (short interest is a huge% of float). My broker wouldn't allow me a simple short. How did you go about setting up your position? I was considering using Options to setup a synthetic short (buying Put and Selling OTM calls, 2015 of course).

Short interest is significantly smaller than what it was just 4 or so months ago. Situation might be even better as shares from the new offering slowly circulate into the daily volume. I'm with Scottrade and I simply placed an order for a short sale. As far as I know, they'll charge me the 7.75% annual interest for the margin like they always have. I've never paid anything else on top of that as far as I know.

It could just be that it's easier for me because I don't have a large position. I'm only 24 years old and don't have a significant amount saved up. 2.5% of my portfolio amounts to a handful of shares. This is in part why I didn't want to do options; I didn't want exposure to a lot of 100 shares nor did I want to put an expiration on this bet. I'm typically early with my timing and have never made money on options except from selling them.

Makes sense.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on August 09, 2013, 06:40:22 AM
I am short via a deep ITM long term put. I prefer to lock in my downside, eliminate tail risk of shorting and have the flexibility to sell an OTM or ATM put against it as an exit strategy to extract premium.

Borrow is easy to get now, but I am unsure if that will always be the case; I do not trust Interactive Brokers to be my advocate in locating borrow on what has the possibility to become a difficult to locate stock.  Going up against a master manipulator of the capital markets such as Elon Musk is not to be taken lightly and I would much rather pay $10-$20 extra per share in option premium (and pay out cash for the option rather than receive the proceeds of sale on a short sale). I also think I will make this back eventually via aforementioned put sale.

It's important to remember the insanity of 1999, although I was 11 years old then : ) or Volkswagen circa October 2008

Ridiculously expensive can always get more ridiculous and I like having the option (pun intended) to just sit on my arse and take the loss rather than worrying about my short position. Of course the high share price does create a bit of a barrier to entry.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 09, 2013, 09:04:45 AM
Model S gets 5-star in every category in NHTSA crash tests:

http://www.safercar.gov/Vehicle+Shoppers/5-Star+Safety+Ratings/2011-Newer+Vehicles/Vehicle-Detail?vehicleId=7769
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 09, 2013, 10:20:43 AM
I am short via a deep ITM long term put. I prefer to lock in my downside, eliminate tail risk of shorting and have the flexibility to sell an OTM or ATM put against it as an exit strategy to extract premium.

Borrow is easy to get now, but I am unsure if that will always be the case; I do not trust Interactive Brokers to be my advocate in locating borrow on what has the possibility to become a difficult to locate stock.  Going up against a master manipulator of the capital markets such as Elon Musk is not to be taken lightly and I would much rather pay $10-$20 extra per share in option premium (and pay out cash for the option rather than receive the proceeds of sale on a short sale). I also think I will make this back eventually via aforementioned put sale.

It's important to remember the insanity of 1999, although I was 11 years old then : ) or Volkswagen circa October 2008

Ridiculously expensive can always get more ridiculous and I like having the option (pun intended) to just sit on my arse and take the loss rather than worrying about my short position. Of course the high share price does create a bit of a barrier to entry.

I'm with you on the short idea. I'm with you on the strategy. I don't have the balls to do it though.  :P
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on August 09, 2013, 10:21:37 AM
Maybe this will be a good case study for me as I’m relatively new to attempting shorts – I’d like your inputs on the best strategy here. Take the following two strategies:

 

Enter a short position for $1050 – which would be short selling 7 shares.

The benefits of this are the following:

1)      Not time dependent

2)      If you’re wrong, you’ll most likely bleed a small amount (relative to market exposure) on a daily basis and can exit when you want.

 

The cons are as follows:

1)      Returns are capped at 100% maximum and it typically takes awhile to get there.

2)      Tail risk of shares going much, much higher and your loss being many multiples of your exposure

a.       I view this as being relatively remote if you are actively watching short interest, trading volume, etc. and adjust your position or hedge accordingly

 

Or you could enter a bearish put spread as follows – buy a $150 strike put for $42 and selling a $140 strike put for $37. Both expire January 2015. For the sake of simplicity, I’ve left out the time value component of return on the options given the timing is uncertain. This simplifies the calcs a little but keep in mind there’s a time value component.

 The pros are :

1)      Your loss is capped to a maximum of $500 and occurs at any price above $150

2)      You only need the stock to drop 6% to below $140 to make your maximum gain of $1,000 (which is 200% return on your capital at risk)

a.       This also could result in a rinse repeat where the same trade is put on again at different strike prices

 

The cons are:

1)      Time frame is limited – You have 1.25 years to be right about it dropping below $145ish to make money on the option.  

a.       This isn’t a high bar, but you’re risking a 50%. You’d be unlikely to lose this amount shorting barring the fat tail event.

 

It actually looks to me that the option spread may be better. Getting the price to fall below $140 for your maximum gain seems like an extremely likely event in the next 1.25 years even if the stock goes higher. Momentum stocks often have 15-20% dips meaning the stock could go as high as $175 before it looked unlikely that you’d be able to make your maximum amount at some point on the bet. Even then, your loss is pegged at only 50% as compared to 17% on the short at that point. What are your thoughts. Should I switch out being short the shares for a bearish put spread?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: enoch01 on August 09, 2013, 10:32:27 AM
Great company, great product, great founder and leader, overvalued stock.  I think there are easier ways to make money than to short this.  The money will be just as green.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 09, 2013, 10:41:50 AM
Great company, great product, great founder and leader, overvalued stock.  I think there are easier ways to make money than to short this.  The money will be just as green.

Agreed. The stock is overvalued, but people have been saying it was overvalued since the IPO ("how can they be worth billions having only sold a few hundred Roadsters?").

What's the catalyst for shorting? What if next quarter they sell even more vehicles than expected and pull out a few more surprise new features out from behind the curtains? What if they add a big partnership on top of Toyota and Daimler? As more details come out on the Model X, there could be surprises that will excite people even more. Then later Asian deliveries. I know they'll announce soon that they have an adapter that makes the Model S compatible with non-Tesla fast-charging stations, etc.

In other words, it could stay overvalued for a long time, and during all that time you'll have Elon Musk working against you, pulling more rabbits out of his hat.

As enoch said, there has to be easier ways to make money...

But then, now that I've written this, the stock will probably crater, so nevermind...  :P
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 09, 2013, 10:48:24 AM
I am pretty confident that this is an unnaturally priced stock with lot of emotions involved on both sides. However predicting momentum is a dangerous game. I still don't have a position on thi,s having considered most trade choices for a while now.

I don't like the naked short because of the margin % involved and also just 100% upside. Also it could go  100% or more the other way quite easily. If ppl are able to justify a 160 price, I am sure at 35% gross margin, higher unit sales, longer projections and lower discount rates, they will have no problem justifying 300+ price.

Regarding the option strategies, I like the downside protection of a simple long put (but it is expensive). So thought abt reducing the cost by selling deep OTM calls. While this limits my downside to some extent, if the stock goes crazy on the upside, I am pretty much screwed on the position.

That made me consider a bear call spread. Sell deep ITM Call and buy slightly ITM/ATM Call. This fixes my upside to the premium received and also fixes my downside to the Difference in Strikes less Premiums received. Some combinations seem to give a 3:1 upside to downside ratio. Of course most of the upside is near the lower strike and most of the downside is near the upper strike, so I will have to choose them wisely. At least I wont be paying margin interest, in fact I will receive cash from the premium and if I can put this on for 6 quarter term, I don't have to care abt the near term swings much. Helps me sleep better.

But then, I am also looking at some good long ideas with a nice business and decent price. The kind of businesses which have upside to intrinsic value and I can sit on it for a while because of dividends/earnings support. I keep having this nagging feeling that those long ideas are a better use of my time and money.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on August 09, 2013, 10:51:12 AM
Great company, great product, great founder and leader, overvalued stock.  I think there are easier ways to make money than to short this.  The money will be just as green.

Agreed. The stock is overvalued, but people have been saying it was overvalued since the IPO ("how can they be worth billions having only sold a few hundred Roadsters?").

What's the catalyst for shorting? What if next quarter they sell even more vehicles than expected and pull out a few more surprise new features out from behind the curtains? What if they add a big partnership on top of Toyota and Daimler? As more details come out on the Model X, there could be surprises that will excite people even more. I know they'll announce soon that they have an adapter that makes the Model S compatible with non-Tesla fast-charging stations, etc.

In other words, it could stay overvalued for a long time, and during all that time you'll have Elon Musk working against you, pulling more rabbits out of his hat.

As enoch said, there has to be easier ways to make money...

But then, now that I've written this, the stock will probably crater, so nevermind...  :P

I feel the exact same way. The fact that making same money long some other stock is easier. And also the fact that this stock will tank once I make the decision to not short it!  :D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2013, 10:51:59 AM
I wonder if the shorts are new investors, or whether they experienced the Dot Com craziness.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on August 09, 2013, 10:58:48 AM
I think it's hedge funds.  There's a lot of hedge funds which are 100% long 30% short, 130/30, 75/75, etc.  Tesla used to be an attractive stock because it was a hot IPO and they were losing lots of money (like A123).  Your ideal short is going to be a company that loses lots of money and is overvalued and has a catalyst (in Tesla's case, running out of cash and the DoE loan).

In my opinion, there are way too many short sellers right now.  There are a number of stocks out there where the borrow is more than credit card debt.  (Tesla used to be like this.)  People were shorting ATPG, one of this board's "favorite" stocks, at almost 100% interest at one point.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2013, 11:05:20 AM
I think it's hedge funds.  There's a lot of hedge funds which are 100% long 30% short, 130/30, 75/75, etc.  Tesla used to be an attractive stock because it was a hot IPO and they were losing lots of money (like A123).  Your ideal short is going to be a company that loses lots of money and is overvalued and has a catalyst (in Tesla's case, running out of cash and the DoE loan).

The catalyst was on the long side, as I argued back when it was a $30 stock.

Sure, they were bleeding cash... because the Model S hadn't been released yet!  I'm kicking myself for not spending more time to realize that the shorts couldn't see a few months down the road and were looking only at the prior quarter's results.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on August 11, 2013, 09:59:37 AM
I'm not sure how to value TSLA - many value investors probably don't.
 
I like to think about this from first principle -  investing is about increasing your future purchasing power through the appreciation of asset prices or simply paying less than what you will sell for in the future -
 
If one buys anything today, there's some chance it'll be worth more and some chance worth less in the future since nobody knows the future.  So various investing approaches are out there that are aimed at lowering the risk of being wrong… 

I believe there are three conditions when stocks appreciate:
 
a) There’s a new product or technology or service that’s created a new industry hence the company has few or no competitors – the market likes it and price appreciation can be seen in a very short time if management can successfully capitalize on the competitive position in a new industry
 
b) Solid businesses that have a few competitors trading at fair value, but the intrinsic value will rise over time…. This is the good old ‘blue chips’ – if the time horizon is long enough, a investor would ultimately make a positive return… and better yet, if there’s panic in the market in general, these solid businesses could trade at a discount, providing a good opportunity for entry.
 
c) Cheap businesses that’s gone cheap because it’s business model has failed or close to failing – but the price could quickly appreciate if there’s a successful turnaround  - e.g, new management (APPL), better corporate governance, tradition to a new business model (e.g IBM)
 
The value approach can generally help us in situations 2 and 3 and is in my mind the best approach for investing in that we are paying for less than the intrinsic value, thus reducing the consequence of being wrong.  (Risk = probability of being wrong x consequence of being wrong).
 
When it comes to situation a) though, as it is difficult to gauge a company’s future and the dynamics of competition once other rivals start to copy, it is difficult to estimate the ‘intrinsic value’; therefore, it’s generally difficult to apply the ‘traditional’ value investing approach for risk management… i.e., the consequence of being wrong is very difficult to estimate…
 
However, I have been thinking though if looking at new industries / technologies, one can approach risk management in a different way, it may be possible to invest in situation a).   Take facebook as an example… (don’t mean to change the subject), the consequence of being wrong is great, but the probability of being wrong is probably not that great IF, IF, one can analyze the industry successfully – i.e., seeing that our society do prefer a more open, socially integrated way of living…. and Mark & company are very capable programmers that know how to develop a very good platform -  So facebook successfully provided this social network – and there’s tremendous ‘value’ to this solution that a traditional value investor would generally not want to attempt.
 
Same applies to TSLA.  IF someone can analyze the probability of high-end electric vehicles gaining momentum in developed nations, where their citizens are wealthy and want to make a statement about the environment, and that this analysis is as good as a value investor can analyze intrinsic values of businesses – then those efforts would have paid off quite handsomely.
 
I think many value investors including myself have probably setup this ‘boundary’ around certain companies to not invest - probably influenced by the tech crash in 1999 and Warren’s message that he doesn’t touch tech stocks – when in fact the same effort and careful risk management could probably have produced comparable results as traditional value investing.
 
While value investing is about careful management of risk through not over paying - I think it's more about risk management of portfolio and anything is game if one can be smart and have a way of avoiding significant risks.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 12, 2013, 03:30:24 PM
Elon Musk's hyperloop design is out (no patents, open source):

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/hyperloop

http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on August 19, 2013, 02:33:37 PM
Not sure if this was posted, but here's a video of the Teslive event that occurred two months or so ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n-xsEjq7pk

It's really interesting stuff.  Tesla owners are in love with the company -- it's very Apple-like in that regard.

If I were Elon Musk, I would try to raise as much equity capital as possible right now.  Then he could really put the pedal to the floor on building out the company.  After all, that's what the public markets are for, right?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: meiroy on August 19, 2013, 09:05:54 PM

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-model-s-achieves-best-safety-rating-any-car-ever-tested

"TESLA MODEL S ACHIEVES BEST SAFETY RATING OF ANY CAR EVER TESTED
SETS NEW NHTSA VEHICLE SAFETY SCORE RECORD

MONDAY, AUGUST 19, 2013
Palo Alto, CA — Independent testing by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has awarded the Tesla Model S a 5-star safety rating, not just overall, but in every subcategory without exception. Approximately one percent of all cars tested by the federal government achieve 5 stars across the board. NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars."


Amazing.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 19, 2013, 09:46:04 PM
Not sure if this was posted, but here's a video of the Teslive event that occurred two months or so ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n-xsEjq7pk

It's really interesting stuff.  Tesla owners are in love with the company -- it's very Apple-like in that regard.

If I were Elon Musk, I would try to raise as much equity capital as possible right now.  Then he could really put the pedal to the floor on building out the company.  After all, that's what the public markets are for, right?

+1 +1

And thanks for the link meiroy
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 19, 2013, 09:52:07 PM

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-model-s-achieves-best-safety-rating-any-car-ever-tested

"TESLA MODEL S ACHIEVES BEST SAFETY RATING OF ANY CAR EVER TESTED
SETS NEW NHTSA VEHICLE SAFETY SCORE RECORD

MONDAY, AUGUST 19, 2013
Palo Alto, CA — Independent testing by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has awarded the Tesla Model S a 5-star safety rating, not just overall, but in every subcategory without exception. Approximately one percent of all cars tested by the federal government achieve 5 stars across the board. NHTSA does not publish a star rating above 5, however safety levels better than 5 stars are captured in the overall Vehicle Safety Score (VSS) provided to manufacturers, where the Model S achieved a new combined record of 5.4 stars."


Amazing.

I like the comparison to the Apollo Lunar Lander:

For the side pole intrusion test, considered one of the most difficult to pass, the Model S was the only car in the "good" category among the other top one percent of vehicles tested. Compared to the Volvo S60, which is also 5-star rated in all categories, the Model S preserved 63.5 percent of driver residual space vs. 7.8 percent for the Volvo. Tesla achieved this outcome by nesting multiple deep aluminum extrusions in the side rail of the car that absorb the impact energy (a similar approach was used by the Apollo Lunar Lander) and transfer load to the rest of the vehicle. This causes the pole to be either sheared off or to stop the car before the pole hits an occupant.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on August 20, 2013, 11:21:49 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 20, 2013, 03:28:10 PM
For those that enjoyed the Model S safety article:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA5jiC7fH18

Should be called the Tesla Tank S. My favorite moment starts at 1:02 where the roof bends and distorts then returns to original shape.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: CONeal on August 20, 2013, 06:46:29 PM
How does Model X not turn into the current day version of the Delorean?

The Delorean back in the day was not a very well crafted car with the "Falcon" doors.  The problem was that parking in any parking lot did not allow for the clearance to open when a car was right beside it. 

I still have an issue seeing how the Model X would not have the same problem.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 20, 2013, 07:07:21 PM
How does Model X not turn into the current day version of the Delorean?

The Delorean back in the day was not a very well crafted car with the "Falcon" doors.  The problem was that parking in any parking lot did not allow for the clearance to open when a car was right beside it. 

I still have an issue seeing how the Model X would not have the same problem.

Elon Musk has addressed that in interviews. These doors are designed differently in significant ways that make them a lot more practical than past implementations.

But if they test them in the wild and it doesn't work, they'll just change to regular doors. They've shown that they're very nimble and can recognize and correct errors.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: CONeal on August 20, 2013, 07:33:58 PM
Thanks Liberty must have been overlooking where he addressed this.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 20, 2013, 07:53:06 PM
Thanks Liberty must have been overlooking where he addressed this.

I wish I remembered the exact interview so I could point you to it, but I've seen so many lately.. It might have been the Teslive 2013 one, but I'm not sure.

Part of what makes these doors different is the way they are double-hinged and open in a very space efficient way, and have proximity sensors that will stop them from hitting people or roofs or whatever.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 20, 2013, 09:58:02 PM
I wish I remembered the exact interview so I could point you to it, but I've seen so many lately..

+1
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on August 21, 2013, 05:46:18 AM
How does Model X not turn into the current day version of the Delorean?

The Delorean back in the day was not a very well crafted car with the "Falcon" doors.  The problem was that parking in any parking lot did not allow for the clearance to open when a car was right beside it. 

I still have an issue seeing how the Model X would not have the same problem.

Just watch a video of them operating and you'll see how they require less clearance than a regular car door.  Deloreans were an ego-driven disaster.  Teslas are logically designed from first principles.  The only similarity with a Delorean is that the doors do not open like a regular door and they both have four wheels.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 06:46:45 AM
There are people who only buy white cars.  There are people who only buy black cars.

The Delorean was only available in stainless.  There seemed to be no serious attempt to sell the car.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 07:03:08 AM
How does Model X not turn into the current day version of the Delorean?

The Delorean back in the day was not a very well crafted car with the "Falcon" doors.  The problem was that parking in any parking lot did not allow for the clearance to open when a car was right beside it. 

I still have an issue seeing how the Model X would not have the same problem.

Elon Musk has addressed that in interviews. These doors are designed differently in significant ways that make them a lot more practical than past implementations.

But if they test them in the wild and it doesn't work, they'll just change to regular doors. They've shown that they're very nimble and can recognize and correct errors.

The problem with the Falcon wing doors is that you can't have a roof rack.  So no ski box on top, no kayak, no surfboard... no Christmas tree!

They can't easily just change to regular doors without giving up one of their main goals, which is to be able to have an opening wide enough to be able to step in to the third row seats.  You can't go with a door that swings on a hinge -- it would be too long to fit in tight spaces.  This leaves you with the sliding door (minivans) as the only option, and they wanted to give you the feeling that you aren't buying a minivan (stigma).

So they are stuck. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 21, 2013, 07:14:22 AM
The problem with the Falcon wing doors is that you can't have a roof rack.  So no ski box on top, no kayak, no surfboard... no Christmas tree!

They can't easily just change to regular doors without giving up one of their main goals, which is to be able to have an opening wide enough to be able to step in to the third row seats.  You can't go with a door that swings on a hinge -- it would be too long to fit in tight spaces.  This leaves you with the sliding door (minivans) as the only option, and they wanted to give you the feeling that you aren't buying a minivan (stigma).

So they are stuck.

Someone asked that question to Elon either at Teslive or at the shareholder meeting, and he said (about roof racks for skis and such) that they were working on an innovative solution. I don't know what it'll be, but they're aware of the problem.

If they do switch the doors, maybe they could go to a half door in front of the third row that opens facing the front (seen from above, the doors would be \ \ / ) so you'd have 4 regular doors plus small suicide doors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_door) in the back. That's one option. That'd be a significant redesign, but better than having a whole model fail if nobody likes falcon doors..
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 21, 2013, 11:11:29 AM
Elon on BYD cars

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9ftbRWqkj0
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on August 21, 2013, 11:21:07 AM
Elon on BYD cars

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9ftbRWqkj0

Entertaining. I can see Downey modeling Tony Stark on Musk. Musk came across as Stark in that video.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on August 21, 2013, 03:42:54 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-21/tesla-ceo-studies-europe-asia-plants-for-mass-market-car.html

Here's hoping Elon issues more stock to do this.  I'm rooting pretty heavily for TSLA the company. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: no_free_lunch on August 21, 2013, 04:01:28 PM
txlaw,

What is interesting about the new plants is that they already have capacity for 500k cars at existing facilities.  So this is a signal that they plan to expand beyond 500k.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on August 21, 2013, 04:08:44 PM
Here's hoping Elon issues more stock to do this.  I'm rooting pretty heavily for TSLA the company.

+1
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: no_free_lunch on August 21, 2013, 04:11:03 PM
Interesting stat: 

In 1908 ford produced 10k cars.  In 1913 they had ramped up to 168k.   In 1916 they were up to 735k cars per year.  So a 70-fold increase in 8 years.   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Automobile_Production_Figures

Is there any reason to believe that Tesla couldn't ramp up as fast as a company in the 1900's?  True, the cars are more complex now but the assembly is increasingly done by robots.  Wouldn't robots allow you to scale up more quickly than having to train workers?

If tesla grew 70-fold and margin stayed constant that would put gross margin at $28B.  There is currently $400M / year in SG&A, it is hard to know how much it would grow in this circumstance but let's assume 35-fold due to economies of scale.  That would leave roughly $14B EBITDA in 8 years.   Margins might be lower on the car models but I think you could still have $8-10B EBITDA once you get to 1.5M cars.   There would still be room for expansion at that point as well, coupled with the insane prior growth the market would assign a high multiple.   So in this very hypothetical, and poorly thought out scenario :) they would likely be valued at $150-250B.  In 8 years.   Or roughly 30-40% / year.

:)  Not exactly value investing but I think this thing has some up-side.

There is also the possibility for expansion into other markets, which would just be gravy.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on August 21, 2013, 04:11:33 PM
txlaw,

What is interesting about the new plants is that they already have capacity for 500k cars at existing facilities.  So this is a signal that they plan to expand beyond 500k.

Very, very interesting.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: txlaw on August 21, 2013, 04:24:00 PM
:)  Not exactly value investing but I think this thing has some up-side.

Couldn't tell you on the upside with respect to the stock price.  But I do think TSLA is way overvalued by the market.  Which is why I want Elon to issue stock.  (I don't own any, btw.)

The fact of the matter is that if TSLA is successful in catalyzing the shift to electric vehicles, all the big car cos will accelerate their own EV offerings, while still selling combustion engine vehicles at a profit.  They will likely license TSLA powertrains too.  In fact, I think some of the big guys already do.

It simply makes no sense for TSLA to be valued at almost twice the value of FIATY.  I do think, however, that Elon could be building the Ferrari of the 21st Century.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on August 21, 2013, 04:34:48 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1648342-5-reasons-why-im-short-tesla

Interest point on the leasing of the cars -

If cars are becoming more technological, and are more akin to high technology then cars, then won't the same deflationary pressures affect resale values (and thus the value of the car they accept back after the lease expires) be in affect once they really get rolling?

Will today's model S sell for any more than 20K in 4 years when you have other cars that have a much further range, removable batteries, and have a sexier design? Interesting conundrum.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 04:45:00 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1648342-5-reasons-why-im-short-tesla

Interest point on the leasing of the cars -

If cars are becoming more technological, and are more akin to high technology then cars, then won't the same deflationary pressures affect resale values (and thus the value of the car they accept back after the lease expires) be in affect once they really get rolling?

Will today's model S sell for any more than 20K in 4 years when you have other cars that have a much further range, removable batteries, and have a sexier design? Interesting conundrum.

What do you mean by removable batteries?  Isn't the 90 second battery swap an example of this?  Model S already has that.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 04:52:11 PM
There is nothing preventing Tesla from offering you a trade in for a longer range battery in the future.   But realistically, it's better to just rent the longer range battery for the weekend.

Swapping the battery is a lot faster than pumping gas.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on August 21, 2013, 05:20:02 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1648342-5-reasons-why-im-short-tesla

Interest point on the leasing of the cars -

If cars are becoming more technological, and are more akin to high technology then cars, then won't the same deflationary pressures affect resale values (and thus the value of the car they accept back after the lease expires) be in affect once they really get rolling?

Will today's model S sell for any more than 20K in 4 years when you have other cars that have a much further range, removable batteries, and have a sexier design? Interesting conundrum.

What do you mean by removable batteries?  Isn't the 90 second battery swap an example of this?  Model S already has that.

I was under the impression that only the low range models had the removable batteries and that the long-range Tesla had a battery that had to be charged and could not be removed due to its size and location? I may be wrong here but that doesn't change the point - if cars are becoming pieces of high technology, what prevents them from the same deflationary pressures as technology improves. Nobody will pay anywhere near the same price for a Tesla that's 3 years old when it's so far behind in all of the new technological advancements.

Maybe the technological innovation stops - but then doesn't that put a ticking clock on TSLAs lead as the only viable electric car company as others catch up? I'm not trying to paint a scenario where TSLA loses any which way - it just seems like there are tons of huge potential "ifs" that are negative that in are in way priced in to a market cap that would require them to sell more luxury cars globally then BMW to begin to justify.

It's a great company with an overhyped investor base IMO. Anyhow, I found the article interesting regardless of what side of the debate your on.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 05:31:57 PM
Nobody will pay anywhere near the same price for a Tesla that's 3 years old when it's so far behind in all of the new technological advancements.

Well, people are still buying NEW Mercedes today and they are WAYYYYYYYYYY, WAYYYYYYYYYY, WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY behind Tesla today  ;)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 06:03:31 PM
Click on 2015 on this page to see where resale value is headed:

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

Here is what my Tesla dashboard looked like when plugged into the Atascadero supercharger:

That's right, charging at 248 Amps x 363 volts!  90,000 watts.  (and they will soon be upgraded to 120,000 watt charging per Tesla).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 21, 2013, 06:45:35 PM
I was under the impression that only the low range models had the removable batteries and that the long-range Tesla had a battery that had to be charged and could not be removed due to its size and location? 

That's incorrect.

More details here : http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueorama on August 21, 2013, 07:47:27 PM
Interesting stat: 

In 1908 ford produced 10k cars.  In 1913 they had ramped up to 168k.   In 1916 they were up to 735k cars per year.  So a 70-fold increase in 8 years.   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Automobile_Production_Figures

Is there any reason to believe that Tesla couldn't ramp up as fast as a company in the 1900's?  True, the cars are more complex now but the assembly is increasingly done by robots.  Wouldn't robots allow you to scale up more quickly than having to train workers?

If tesla grew 70-fold and margin stayed constant that would put gross margin at $28B.  There is currently $400M / year in SG&A, it is hard to know how much it would grow in this circumstance but let's assume 35-fold due to economies of scale.  That would leave roughly $14B EBITDA in 8 years.   Margins might be lower on the car models but I think you could still have $8-10B EBITDA once you get to 1.5M cars.   There would still be room for expansion at that point as well, coupled with the insane prior growth the market would assign a high multiple.   So in this very hypothetical, and poorly thought out scenario :) they would likely be valued at $150-250B.  In 8 years.   Or roughly 30-40% / year.

:)  Not exactly value investing but I think this thing has some up-side.

There is also the possibility for expansion into other markets, which would just be gravy.

That is a great way to compare. But in my opinion it is apples to oranges. I could see myself comparing Model T to IPhone. Model T was competing with buggy whips.  Model T improved transportation in every conceivable way you could think of. Similar to an Iphone, a smart-phone gives an completely different experience and improves on the old system.

Where as an electric vehicle is not that different from a regular gasoline car. Infact for long trips a gasoline car is preferred. I dont think it is going to capture market share  as fast as Model T.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 21, 2013, 07:48:46 PM
Elon on BYD cars

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9ftbRWqkj0

She deserved to be laughed at.  That's like getting an interview with the head of BMW and then telling him that the (take your pick El Cheapo economy car manufacturer) is their competitor and should they be worried about it.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: no_free_lunch on August 22, 2013, 06:36:13 AM
valueorama,

The comparison was just meant to show what type of growth rate is possible on the supply side.  The demand side is another issue.
Don't forget global auto production is over 60M cars, so we are not talking about tesla creating new demand, just eating a portion of existing.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 22, 2013, 06:39:27 AM
Where as an electric vehicle is not that different from a regular gasoline car. Infact for long trips a gasoline car is preferred. I dont think it is going to capture market share  as fast as Model T.

Not that different on paper (it gets you from A to B, has A/C and radio and such), but in practice, owners of the Model S seem to think that like the iPhone, it is a huge improvement on what came previously. Even Consumer Reports gave it 99/100 and said it was the best car they ever drove, you have owners forming clubs to discuss the car and showing actual love for the product and company in a way that very few companies ever see, etc. Not all electrics get that kind of love, but the Tesla certainly does.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on August 22, 2013, 07:41:40 AM
Not all electrics get that kind of love, but the Tesla certainly does.

The only other all electric was the EV1 by GM and owners (leasees actually) held candlelight vigils when GM took them all back and crushed them.  That's some kind of love! 

Looking at that map from Tesla's website that ERICOPOLY posted, it looks like a blueprint for energy self-sufficiency in transportation. 

Save the oil for important things like defense, plastics and fertilizer production!   
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 22, 2013, 07:46:18 AM

Not that different on paper (it gets you from A to B, has A/C and radio and such), but in practice, owners of the Model S seem to think that like the iPhone, it is a huge improvement on what came previously. Even Consumer Reports gave it 99/100 and said it was the best car they ever drove, you have owners forming clubs to discuss the car and showing actual love for the product and company in a way that very few companies ever see, etc. Not all electrics get that kind of love, but the Tesla certainly does.

I called it in the first post. "This is going to be like the next Apple or something". Just wait till certain pro-Apple posters find this thread.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on August 22, 2013, 08:05:50 AM

Not that different on paper (it gets you from A to B, has A/C and radio and such), but in practice, owners of the Model S seem to think that like the iPhone, it is a huge improvement on what came previously. Even Consumer Reports gave it 99/100 and said it was the best car they ever drove, you have owners forming clubs to discuss the car and showing actual love for the product and company in a way that very few companies ever see, etc. Not all electrics get that kind of love, but the Tesla certainly does.

I called it in the first post. "This is going to be like the next Apple or something". Just wait till certain pro-Apple posters find this thread.

But....but... Cars are commoditized, competitors will catch up, Tesla has no competitive advantages and worst of all, Tesla has lost marketshare to Chrysler.

 ;D :D ;D ;D :D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Investmentacct on August 22, 2013, 09:16:35 AM
If anyone know answer to this question.

Super charging stations TSLA plans to build, which company/companies helping them do that? Or are they going to do themselves?

One company I am aware who are in similar space: AVAV
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=AVAV

They have provided operational charging stations at Indstry metrolink station in Diamond bar,ca

Last year hardly single car was plugged. Now almost all stations are occupied with Nissan leafs.








Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 22, 2013, 04:30:06 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/tesla-aiming-for-china-after-hundreds-of-hong-kong-orders.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/tesla-aiming-for-china-after-hundreds-of-hong-kong-orders.html)

Tesla Aiming for China After Hundreds of Hong Kong Orders

...
Ho is among the 300-plus Hong Kong residents who have made refundable deposits of HK$39,000 to HK$330,000 ($5,000-$42,500) to reserve a Model S, even before the company has said how much the cars will cost. That’s more orders than Tesla has seen in the U.K., Japan or Australia, sales manager Kenneth Lui said.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 22, 2013, 10:27:29 PM
Elon Musk and Tesla on CNBC.
couple of clips

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193030 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193030)

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193143 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193143)


http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193150 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193150)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 23, 2013, 07:42:48 AM
Thanks, fareastwarriors.

Profile of Musk:

http://www.gq.com/news-politics/newsmakers/200901/elon-musk-paypal-solar-power-electric-cars-space-travel?printable=true&currentPage=1
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 23, 2013, 02:15:56 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/24/business/wondering-if-tesla-can-get-there-from-here.html?ref=business (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/24/business/wondering-if-tesla-can-get-there-from-here.html?ref=business)

Wondering if Tesla Can Get There From Here
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 23, 2013, 04:00:04 PM
Today I called Solar City and asked about their residential battery systems.  They couldn't give me a price, instead they told me that Tesla is designing their battery for them at the moment (they didn't give me a completion date and I forgot to push them for one).

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx

So Tesla has these jobs on the side going on for a bit of extra revenue.

Also, Solar City will be installing the solar for all of the superchargers that Tesla is building.


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 24, 2013, 10:01:04 AM
Numbers Don't Lie: Tesla Is Beginning To Put The Hurt On The Competition

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/08/24/numbers-dont-lie-tesla-is-beginning-to-put-the-hurt-on-the-competition/

While Tesla delivered right around 10,000 cars through two quarters, those sales appear to be coming at the expense of BMW, Mercedes, Lexus  and Porsche. And Tesla’s sales are remarkably — though perhaps not surprisingly — concentrated in California thus far, with nearly half winding up in the Golden State. As the automaker continues to open new sales and service locations across the country while simultaneously growing its network of high-speed Supercharger stations, things are likely to get a bit worse for the imports.

Nationally, the Tesla has matched the total sales of the Lexus LS, Audi  A8 and Panamera combined.

The big loser going forward appears to be Porsche, whose Panamera has received mixed results from critics and is mostly outperformed by the less expensive Model S. To make matters worse, Porsche profits come heavily from the Cayenne. When Tesla delivers Model X, Cayenne might well be a significant casualty.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: stahleyp on August 24, 2013, 10:15:14 AM
Ericopoly Jr. right here ;)

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/08/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-investment-earns/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on August 26, 2013, 07:22:58 AM
Entertaining. I can see Downey modeling Tony Stark on Musk. Musk came across as Stark in that video.

Musk inspired Iron Man then Iron Man inspired Musk.

Elon Musk: "Will post video next week of designing a rocket part with hand gestures & then immediately printing it in titanium"
Jon Favreau: "Like in Iron Man?"
Elon Musk: "Yup. We saw it in the movie and made it real. Good idea!"

Elon Musk just started building a real 'Iron Man' laboratory (http://www.theverge.com/2013/8/24/4653878/elon-musk-will-reveal-gesture-based-rocket-design?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=bufferc4eee&utm_medium=twitter)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 26, 2013, 08:26:45 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-26/tesla-market-value-rises-to-20-billion-on-ev-optimism.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-26/tesla-market-value-rises-to-20-billion-on-ev-optimism.html)

Tesla Market Value Rises to $20 Billion on EV Optimism
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: tombgrt on August 27, 2013, 09:50:14 AM
Good post in a Tesla thread on reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1l4g33/tesla_is_just_starting_to_be_seen_as_a_threat_by/cbw47ij
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on September 06, 2013, 11:32:09 AM
Interesting posts from the professor. He tried to be optimistic in assumptions and ended up with a bear case :) and got all the grief associated with it in the comments.

Quote
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-week-1-tesla-test.html

He then followed it up today with a even more wildly optimistic post and hopefully placated the bulls.

Quote
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/tesla-follow-up.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rainman on September 06, 2013, 11:46:55 AM
It seems this guy post a bear case for Facebook some time ago.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on September 06, 2013, 01:11:37 PM
It seems this guy post a bear case for Facebook some time ago.

Yes he did before the IPO. But then he made a post for the bull case when the stock got hammered to the high teens. He also made a post recently not knowing exactly what to do about his gains after the stock recaptured the IPO price
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on September 06, 2013, 01:16:41 PM
Interesting posts from the professor. He tried to be optimistic in assumptions and ended up with a bear case :) and got all the grief associated with it in the comments.

Quote
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-week-1-tesla-test.html

He then followed it up today with a even more wildly optimistic post and hopefully placated the bulls.

Quote
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/tesla-follow-up.html

Thanks for posting. Looking forward to reading the valuation discussion & the comments.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on September 16, 2013, 09:28:06 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkvYvk8vxuw


Hilarious.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on September 18, 2013, 06:38:14 AM
I'd be willing to bet that Musk will bring something like this to market before anyone else.

"Tesla's 'autopilot' car project targets 90 percent of miles driven, three years from now" (http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/17/teslas-autopilot-car-project-targets-90-percent-of-miles-driv/)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 20, 2013, 09:49:39 AM
Over 22B market cap. I bet even Elon Musk thinks this is kind of crazy (he's alluded to overvaluation in interviews)... I wish they'd raise a few more billions right now.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on September 20, 2013, 10:06:54 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkvYvk8vxuw


Hilarious.

Amazing- thanks for posting
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on September 20, 2013, 10:49:47 AM
Very funny!
Thanks for posting!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 20, 2013, 02:36:26 PM
400 mile range battery.  We'll see in time what happens:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/19/new-tesla-patent-400-mile-battery-pack-using-metal-air-lithium-ion-batteries/

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on September 20, 2013, 04:24:04 PM
Hey Eric,
I'm sure this is a few years out until the 35k car is released, but are you worried about long lines at supercharger stations assuming you need to drive 200 plus miles?

On a completely different topic, did you ever consider taking over a microcap public company and then turn it into a holding company? You have the capital:)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 20, 2013, 04:45:48 PM
Hey Eric,
I'm sure this is a few years out until the 35k car is released, but are you worried about long lines at supercharger stations assuming you need to drive 200 plus miles?

I saw an article where they interviewed the Tesla engineer responsible for the battery tech stuff.  He seemed to think that full battery recharge will one day get down to 5 minutes.  So long term, that's where it goes.  That will keep the lines from being long.  This will be iterative, where the battery charging technology will get better and better over the years.  Then Tesla merely needs to sell chargers to existing gas stations -- they're always in need of more people using their mini-marts while they pull in for a 5 minute quick charge.

http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-jb-straubel-five-minute-recharging-without-swap-127734.html

I have 4 cars.  I have a 2008 Suburban, a 2011 Roadtrek Sprinter Van, a 2004 BMW X5, and the Tesla Model S.  We're simply not going to drive the Model S long distances very much given these other options sitting there parked in the driveway.


On a completely different topic, did you ever consider taking over a microcap public company and then turn it into a holding company? You have the capital:)

I have more than 50% of it in my RothIRA.  Unless the laws change, it's sort of the ultimate tax situation as far as that money goes. 

The rest of it in the taxable account is what I'm using to fund my house purchase in 3 years when the purchase option matures, as well as my ongoing living expenses while I wait 19 years to reach age 59.5 (Roth IRA withdrawal without penalty age).  There is also the problem that I'm not well suited to run a holding company.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 22, 2013, 10:28:03 AM
It sounds like Tesla isn't allowed to operate a supercharger in the state of Virginia. 

It's against the law for a car manufacturer to operate a service business in the state.  So the company has to put the superchargers right on the border with neighboring states.

Are they a bunch of lefty wingnuts in that state protecting their auto dealership jobs, or do they believe in free markets?  Just kidding of course...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: muscleman on September 22, 2013, 09:58:37 PM
Hey Eric,
I'm sure this is a few years out until the 35k car is released, but are you worried about long lines at supercharger stations assuming you need to drive 200 plus miles?

I saw an article where they interviewed the Tesla engineer responsible for the battery tech stuff.  He seemed to think that full battery recharge will one day get down to 5 minutes.  So long term, that's where it goes.  That will keep the lines from being long.  This will be iterative, where the battery charging technology will get better and better over the years.  Then Tesla merely needs to sell chargers to existing gas stations -- they're always in need of more people using their mini-marts while they pull in for a 5 minute quick charge.

http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-jb-straubel-five-minute-recharging-without-swap-127734.html

I have 4 cars.  I have a 2008 Suburban, a 2011 Roadtrek Sprinter Van, a 2004 BMW X5, and the Tesla Model S.  We're simply not going to drive the Model S long distances very much given these other options sitting there parked in the driveway.


On a completely different topic, did you ever consider taking over a microcap public company and then turn it into a holding company? You have the capital:)

I have more than 50% of it in my RothIRA.  Unless the laws change, it's sort of the ultimate tax situation as far as that money goes. 

The rest of it in the taxable account is what I'm using to fund my house purchase in 3 years when the purchase option matures, as well as my ongoing living expenses while I wait 19 years to reach age 59.5 (Roth IRA withdrawal without penalty age).  There is also the problem that I'm not well suited to run a holding company.

Just curious, why did you choose RothIRA vs pre-tax?
I chose pre-tax because I thought this would be good for tax deduction. If I choose Roth, I would not be able to have taxable income to deduct tax.
Also, I heard that for RothIRA, if you take money out, the penalty is 10% plus your investment gains. But for pre-tax, the penalty is only the 10%, plus the income tax, so there is no investment gain tax for pre-tax IRA if I take money before 59.5.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 22, 2013, 10:43:32 PM
Also, I heard that for RothIRA, if you take money out, the penalty is 10% plus your investment gains. But for pre-tax, the penalty is only the 10%, plus the income tax, so there is no investment gain tax for pre-tax IRA if I take money before 59.5.

For Roth, everything you've already paid taxes on (your after-tax contributions as well as monies converted to a Roth from a regular IRA)  can be withdrawn with no penalties after 5 years. 

But any of the gains withdrawn early in your RothIRA (which would be your investment gains) is at the 10% penalty plus income tax.  But that's exactly the same penalty terms as with the regular IRA.

They don't let you withdraw any of your gains from the RothIRA until you've withdrawn all of your after-tax and Roth-conversion monies (if you had any) -- but that's nice, because why would you want to withdraw the taxable gains when the already-taxed money could be withdrawn first?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 22, 2013, 10:50:46 PM
Example:

You have $10,000 contributed to your RothIRA in January 2003.  You paid $2,500 tax bill at that time (25% tax rate).

Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did  ;D

So... what if instead I had done this in a Regular IRA?  Well I would have needed to grow the $2,500 by a similar 38,000%.  In my taxable account???  No such luck -- the annual tax drag would not allow it.  The difference could be really expensive because when the compounding numbers get high, the tax drag really starts to grind.

At 60% compounding the $2,500 would have grown by only 15,000%, to $375,000.  That's nowhere near enough to settle the $950,000 tax liability (at 25%).  But worse, today the tax rates are 40% if you're taking out that much money at once.  The tax rates of just 25% are a dream now.  Worse still, the top income tax rate in California (where I now live) is 52% (for a whopping $1,976,000 in tax liability).

So by paying the tax early you could say that I grew a $2,500 tax liability into $1,976,000 (at California's rate).  That's 79,000%!  In just 10.6 years!

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on September 23, 2013, 06:26:26 AM
Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did"

Nice!! Even with just an all stock index fund you'll probably have close to $30 million by age 59. Slightly better performance than the index and you'll be a centimillionaire!
Any special plans at 59?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on September 23, 2013, 06:37:51 AM
Example:

You have $10,000 contributed to your RothIRA in January 2003.  You paid $2,500 tax bill at that time (25% tax rate).

Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did  ;D

So... what if instead I had done this in a Regular IRA?  Well I would have needed to grow the $2,500 by a similar 38,000%.  In my taxable account???  No such luck -- the annual tax drag would not allow it.  The difference could be really expensive because when the compounding numbers get high, the tax drag really starts to grind.

At 60% compounding the $2,500 would have grown by only 15,000%, to $375,000.  That's nowhere near enough to settle the $950,000 tax liability (at 25%).  But worse, today the tax rates are 40% if you're taking out that much money at once.  The tax rates of just 25% are a dream now.  Worse still, the top income tax rate in California (where I now live) is 52% (for a whopping $1,976,000 in tax liability).

So by paying the tax early you could say that I grew a $2,500 tax liability into $1,976,000 (at California's rate).  That's 79,000%!  In just 10.6 years!

But what if instead of depositing $10k into the Roth and paying $2.5K in taxes, you deposited $12.5K into a traditional IRA and earned 38000%.  You'd have almost $1M more in your IRA to grow for another 19 years.  And if you get out of CA before starting to withdraw it you would avoid the crazy state taxes altogether.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: LC on September 23, 2013, 07:11:33 AM
Example:

You have $10,000 contributed to your RothIRA in January 2003.  You paid $2,500 tax bill at that time (25% tax rate).

Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did  ;D

So... what if instead I had done this in a Regular IRA?  Well I would have needed to grow the $2,500 by a similar 38,000%.  In my taxable account???  No such luck -- the annual tax drag would not allow it.  The difference could be really expensive because when the compounding numbers get high, the tax drag really starts to grind.

At 60% compounding the $2,500 would have grown by only 15,000%, to $375,000.  That's nowhere near enough to settle the $950,000 tax liability (at 25%).  But worse, today the tax rates are 40% if you're taking out that much money at once.  The tax rates of just 25% are a dream now.  Worse still, the top income tax rate in California (where I now live) is 52% (for a whopping $1,976,000 in tax liability).

So by paying the tax early you could say that I grew a $2,500 tax liability into $1,976,000 (at California's rate).  That's 79,000%!  In just 10.6 years!

But what if instead of depositing $10k into the Roth and paying $2.5K in taxes, you deposited $12.5K into a traditional IRA and earned 38000%.  You'd have almost $1M more in your IRA to grow for another 19 years.  And if you get out of CA before starting to withdraw it you would avoid the crazy state taxes altogether.

I always thought the only differential factor in making a decision of Roth vs. Traditional IRA was whether you expect to pay taxes at a lower rate when you deposit the money versus when you withdraw.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on September 23, 2013, 07:13:19 AM
Example:

You have $10,000 contributed to your RothIRA in January 2003.  You paid $2,500 tax bill at that time (25% tax rate).

Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did  ;D

So... what if instead I had done this in a Regular IRA?  Well I would have needed to grow the $2,500 by a similar 38,000%.  In my taxable account???  No such luck -- the annual tax drag would not allow it.  The difference could be really expensive because when the compounding numbers get high, the tax drag really starts to grind.

At 60% compounding the $2,500 would have grown by only 15,000%, to $375,000.  That's nowhere near enough to settle the $950,000 tax liability (at 25%).  But worse, today the tax rates are 40% if you're taking out that much money at once.  The tax rates of just 25% are a dream now.  Worse still, the top income tax rate in California (where I now live) is 52% (for a whopping $1,976,000 in tax liability).

So by paying the tax early you could say that I grew a $2,500 tax liability into $1,976,000 (at California's rate).  That's 79,000%!  In just 10.6 years!

But what if instead of depositing $10k into the Roth and paying $2.5K in taxes, you deposited $12.5K into a traditional IRA and earned 38000%.  You'd have almost $1M more in your IRA to grow for another 19 years.  And if you get out of CA before starting to withdraw it you would avoid the crazy state taxes altogether.

I always thought the only differential factor in making a decision of Roth vs. Traditional IRA was whether you expect to pay taxes at a lower rate when you deposit the money versus when you withdraw.

That is my understanding as well. If your expected tax rate on the way out is more than the current tax rate, you go with Roth else you go with tax deferred.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 23, 2013, 07:23:26 AM
But what if instead of depositing $10k into the Roth and paying $2.5K in taxes, you deposited $12.5K into a traditional IRA and earned 38000%. 

I was already doing that too.  I was maxing everything out that I could.  You can contribute only so much, after which you are forced to contribute excess savings to your taxable brokerage account.

Settling the tax bill early is like maxing out one more thing.  I like to think of paying the tax bill early as a "stealth" RothIRA contribution.  It's not technically a contribution, but it's just as valuable as putting that $2,500 in a RothIRA.  The difference is that you skip the formality -- instead of putting the $2,500 into an account where it grows tax-free, you just hand it directly over to the Treasury.

So really, if you don't settle the tax bill early you are losing out on one more addition way to make a contribution to tax-sheltered account with RothIRA-type tax characteristics.

See, I'm a bit weird -- I just explained how I handed tax money directly over to the Treasury and in the same post called this a tax shelter.  Some kind of tax shelter!  But it is. 

This IRA tax isn't merely an order of operations thing -- it isn't like 25% tax today is the same as a 25% tax in 50 years.  If you can afford to settle the tax bill today with money from your taxable account, it's best to go ahead and do so because your taxable account will not be able to compound at the speed of your tax-deferred accounts.  It's that simple.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 23, 2013, 07:30:07 AM
Aside from the inheritance and withdrawal rules....

$10,000 contributed to a RothIRA is just as good as having $10,000 in a regular IRA as well as being allowed to contribute another $2,500 to a RothIRA.

The guy with the regular IRA still gets $10,000 in a tax-deferred account, but his extra $2,500 is riding in a taxable brokerage account.

So you get to pack even more money into non-tax status.  That's why the Roth is better!




Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: muscleman on September 23, 2013, 08:30:42 AM
Aside from the inheritance and withdrawal rules....

$10,000 contributed to a RothIRA is just as good as having $10,000 in a regular IRA as well as being allowed to contribute another $2,500 to a RothIRA.

The guy with the regular IRA still gets $10,000 in a tax-deferred account, but his extra $2,500 is riding in a taxable brokerage account.

So you get to pack even more money into non-tax status.  That's why the Roth is better!

I see. I think I misunderstood Roth. This year's traditional and Roth 401k limits are both $17500. I thought that means either I can put in $17500 pre-tax income into traditional 401k, or I can put in $17500 MINUS tax into Roth. But if I can actually put in $17500 into Roth, that is indeed more savings.

I am still choosing pre-tax because I expect to take money before 59.5. This means I only need to pay the 10% penalty plus the income tax. For Roth it wouldn't make sense to take money out before 59.5.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 23, 2013, 08:54:14 AM
There is another type of contribution that just rocks if you are planning on not working your entire career at the same company.

It's this...
I always maxed out the additional after-tax contribution that you are allowed to make to the 401k plan.  It amounts to 7% of your pay.  So if you make 100k salary, you can contribute another $7,000 after-tax this way.  This money is in addition to the $17,500 contribution you make.

So you can contribute $7,000 + $17,500 = $24,500 total contribution.

Here is why it's so great...  on the day you leave your job you can roll your 401k plan to an IRA.  The after-tax money goes directly to a RothIRA and the pre-tax money goes directly to a Rollover IRA.  You can later convert the Rollover IRA if you choose to RothIRA status, but that's optional.

So did you catch that?  Upon rollover out of your 401k, all of your after-tax contributions are treated exactly the same.  They all go to the Roth, even though the "extra 7% of pay" contribution exceeded the amounts you are normally allowed to contribute to a RothIRA.

The only difference between the two is that the earnings/gains on the Roth401k contributions also flow directly to the RothIRA upon rollover, but in the case with the "extra 7% of pay" contributions the earnings/gains on them go to the regular Rollover IRA, because those are taxable gains/earnings.  But that distinction doesn't matter too much if you plan on leaving the company relatively early as I did.

Anyways, that's what I did.  I maxed out everything all of the time.  Just bring out the big hickory and whack it.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 23, 2013, 09:03:29 AM
I am still choosing pre-tax because I expect to take money before 59.5. This means I only need to pay the 10% penalty plus the income tax. For Roth it wouldn't make sense to take money out before 59.5.

Five years after each Roth contribution, the amount of the contribution itself can be withdrawn completely tax free and without penalties.  So you can perhaps think of every contribution as if it were going to a tax-free fund with a 5 year lockup (subject to 10% penalty for early withdrawal before the 5 year lockup period expires). 

Still not enough money?  Try this:

0)  Roll your 401k plan into IRAs
1)  convert some (or all) of your Regular IRA to RothIRA  -- you pay only the income tax, no penalties here
2)  Wait 5 years and then you can withdraw all of the money (without the 10% penalty) that you converted to Roth status in the prior step

So I'm trying to tell you that you can completely avoid the 10% penalty if you use the Roth as a tool to accomplish early withdrawal.

Then, if that's still not good enough, you can make the "substantially equal periodic payments" deal where you agree to take out a fixed amount each and every year until you are 59.5.  On this money you pay only income tax, not penalties.  This is referred to as "annuitizing your IRA".  You can look that up.

Oh, when I was an employee I spent a lot of time daydreaming and researching about how to get out of the company early.  I think I figured out a few valuable "tricks" -- really, not too tricky as it's just playing by the rules as they were made.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: muscleman on September 23, 2013, 06:51:04 PM
I am still choosing pre-tax because I expect to take money before 59.5. This means I only need to pay the 10% penalty plus the income tax. For Roth it wouldn't make sense to take money out before 59.5.

Five years after each Roth contribution, the amount of the contribution itself can be withdrawn completely tax free and without penalties.  So you can perhaps think of every contribution as if it were going to a tax-free fund with a 5 year lockup (subject to 10% penalty for early withdrawal before the 5 year lockup period expires). 

Still not enough money?  Try this:

0)  Roll your 401k plan into IRAs
1)  convert some (or all) of your Regular IRA to RothIRA  -- you pay only the income tax, no penalties here
2)  Wait 5 years and then you can withdraw all of the money (without the 10% penalty) that you converted to Roth status in the prior step

So I'm trying to tell you that you can completely avoid the 10% penalty if you use the Roth as a tool to accomplish early withdrawal.

Then, if that's still not good enough, you can make the "substantially equal periodic payments" deal where you agree to take out a fixed amount each and every year until you are 59.5.  On this money you pay only income tax, not penalties.  This is referred to as "annuitizing your IRA".  You can look that up.

Oh, when I was an employee I spent a lot of time daydreaming and researching about how to get out of the company early.  I think I figured out a few valuable "tricks" -- really, not too tricky as it's just playing by the rules as they were made.

Wow! Thank you so much for these valuable advice! :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 25, 2013, 03:46:37 PM
Now you can rent a Model S in California from Hertz:

http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/25/autos/tesla-rent-hertz/index.html?iid=HP_LN

I wonder if the rentals are allowed to charge for free at the superchargers?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 02, 2013, 08:24:11 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews)


Tesla Sedan Roars Ahead in Norway

Norway Has Relatively Small Market But Buyers Are Affluent
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 02, 2013, 09:06:28 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews)


Tesla Sedan Roars Ahead in Norway

Norway Has Relatively Small Market But Buyers Are Affluent


Let me guess why. 

1) $10 a gallon for gas in Norway
2)  No value added tax on electric vehicles making a Tesla Model S the same cost as a Volkswagon Passat
3)  Great car
4)  Cheap hydro-generated electricity
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: muscleman on October 02, 2013, 02:58:59 PM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews)


Tesla Sedan Roars Ahead in Norway

Norway Has Relatively Small Market But Buyers Are Affluent


Let me guess why. 

1) $10 a gallon for gas in Norway
2)  No value added tax on electric vehicles making a Tesla Model S the same cost as a Volkswagon Passat
3)  Great car
4)  Cheap hydro-generated electricity

What? The Tesla S is the same price as a Passat in Norway? :o
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 02, 2013, 03:36:30 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/10/02/tesla-fire-stock-falls-analyst-downgrade/2911345/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2013/10/02/tesla-fire-stock-falls-analyst-downgrade/2911345/)

Tesla stock burned by car fire video, downgrade
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: siddharth18 on October 02, 2013, 05:17:16 PM
Example:

You have $10,000 contributed to your RothIRA in January 2003.  You paid $2,500 tax bill at that time (25% tax rate).

Today it's worth $3,800,000.  It grew by roughly 38,000%.  Well, it did  ;D

So... what if instead I had done this in a Regular IRA?  Well I would have needed to grow the $2,500 by a similar 38,000%.  In my taxable account???  No such luck -- the annual tax drag would not allow it.  The difference could be really expensive because when the compounding numbers get high, the tax drag really starts to grind.

At 60% compounding the $2,500 would have grown by only 15,000%, to $375,000.  That's nowhere near enough to settle the $950,000 tax liability (at 25%).  But worse, today the tax rates are 40% if you're taking out that much money at once.  The tax rates of just 25% are a dream now.  Worse still, the top income tax rate in California (where I now live) is 52% (for a whopping $1,976,000 in tax liability).

So by paying the tax early you could say that I grew a $2,500 tax liability into $1,976,000 (at California's rate).  That's 79,000%!  In just 10.6 years!



Hey,

Not the nitpick here, but the income tax rate is calculated marginally and the amount of state income tax is deducted from total income for federal income tax purposes. So the effective tax rate comes to around 46% by my calculation.

Nevertheless, still extremely punitive. It's like you're paying the price for regulators' mismanagement/misdeeds.

Cheers.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: indythinker85 on October 02, 2013, 05:46:27 PM
Ericopoly Jr. right here ;)

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/08/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-investment-earns/

This sounds almost identical to articles about Apple at the peak (no position in TSLA, but i think its totally speculative 'investment') http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/27/apple-shareholders_n_1303926.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/27/apple-shareholders_n_1303926.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 03, 2013, 06:11:10 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews)


Tesla Sedan Roars Ahead in Norway

Norway Has Relatively Small Market But Buyers Are Affluent


Let me guess why. 

1) $10 a gallon for gas in Norway
2)  No value added tax on electric vehicles making a Tesla Model S the same cost as a Volkswagon Passat
3)  Great car
4)  Cheap hydro-generated electricity

What? The Tesla S is the same price as a Passat in Norway? :o

$10/gal gas, $80,000.00 for a Passat. It's a wonder anyone can afford to drive at all.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on October 03, 2013, 08:29:12 AM

Up until now the stock was on fire, now the cars are also on fire  :P

Tesla on a true "Fire Sale" the last couple of days  :P
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 03, 2013, 08:42:25 AM
Quote
Up until now the stock was on fire, now the cars are also on fire  :P

Tesla on a true "Fire Sale" the last couple of days  :P

Ha! You should have your own late night show  ;)

There were 187,500 highway vehicle fires in the US in 2011, and that's just on the highway.

http://www.nfpa.org/research/fire-statistics/the-us-fire-problem/highway-vehicle-fires

Unless they find something wrong with the car, I think it'll be a non-issue in the long run. Even the safest cars aren't invincible. If you cary around a lot of energy, either in a gas tank or a battery, there's potential for stuff to catch on fire.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on October 03, 2013, 08:50:52 AM
Quote
Up until now the stock was on fire, now the cars are also on fire  :P

Tesla on a true "Fire Sale" the last couple of days  :P

Ha! You should have your own late night show  ;)

There were 187,500 highway vehicle fires in the US in 2011, and that's just on the highway.

http://www.nfpa.org/research/fire-statistics/the-us-fire-problem/highway-vehicle-fires

Unless they find something wrong with the car, I think it'll be a non-issue in the long run. Even the safest cars aren't invincible. If you cary around a lot of energy, either in a gas tank or a battery, there's potential for stuff to catch on fire.

If you thought driving a futuristic car running on battery was cool, wait until you see a car running on flames  :P

So what if the car caught fire, it is nothing a future OTA software update can't fix  :P

Have you seen Ghost Rider? That was just a bike on fire, we now make cars that do the same  :P

Yes we have the highest crash test rating. You should have stuck around a few minutes to see what happens later  :P
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 08:53:15 AM
You guys are funny.  Driving your cars with a tank full of gasoline.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Aberhound on October 03, 2013, 08:56:09 AM
Quote

Unless they find something wrong with the car, I think it'll be a non-issue in the long run. Even the safest cars aren't invincible. If you cary around a lot of energy, either in a gas tank or a battery, there's potential for stuff to catch on fire.

An engineering friend at Ballard told me that power density in Lithium ion batteries was an inherent problem as more density increases the risk of spontaneous combustion. Perhaps the problem is that there was too much pressure to extend range vs. preventing fire risk by reducing power density.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 08:58:49 AM

Unless they find something wrong with the car, I think it'll be a non-issue in the long run. Even the safest cars aren't invincible. If you cary around a lot of energy, either in a gas tank or a battery, there's potential for stuff to catch on fire.

An engineering friend at Ballard told me that power density in Lithium ion batteries was an inherent problem as more density increases the risk of spontaneous combustion. Perhaps the problem is that there was too much pressure to extend range vs. preventing fire risk by reducing power density.

Then your friend should either get rid of his laptop, or store it outside when not in use. 

The Model S battery pack is 7,000 small batteries.  Part of the reasoning was to avoid the risk of spontaneous combustion.  This accident is not an example of spontaneous combustion. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on October 03, 2013, 09:03:24 AM
You guys are funny.  Driving your cars with a tank full of gasoline.

Eric - don't take this the wrong way. Those are just a few thoughts which came to my mind after I read the company response, see below. Full disclosure: Neither long nor short the car or the stock.

"Yesterday, a Model S collided with a large metallic object in the middle of the road, causing significant damage to the vehicle. The car's alert system signaled a problem and instructed the driver to pull over safely, which he did. No one was injured, and the sole occupant had sufficient time to exit the vehicle safely and call the authorities. Subsequently, a fire caused by the substantial damage sustained during the collision was contained to the front of the vehicle thanks to the design and construction of the vehicle and battery pack. All indications are that the fire never entered the interior cabin of the car. It was extinguished on-site by the fire department."

I think the incident is all hyped though. Who in their right mind would put a large metallic object in the middle of the road? ;D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on October 03, 2013, 09:03:32 AM


Unless they find something wrong with the car, I think it'll be a non-issue in the long run. Even the safest cars aren't invincible. If you cary around a lot of energy, either in a gas tank or a battery, there's potential for stuff to catch on fire.

An engineering friend at Ballard told me that power density in Lithium ion batteries was an inherent problem as more density increases the risk of spontaneous combustion. Perhaps the problem is that there was too much pressure to extend range vs. preventing fire risk by reducing power density.

Where I work they are working on lithium ion battery with impressive safety compared to what is available on the market today. I have seen some really nice videos, but so far, I haven't been able to find a public reference I could show you..I wil keep digging.

edit: Ok I got some presentations ;

http://www.advbe.com/docs/DeciElec2013-Karim-Zaghib-IREQ.pdf

and

http://www.emc-mec.ca/phev/Presentations_en/SW/PHEV09-W07_KarimZaghib.pdf
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on October 03, 2013, 09:21:07 AM
I have one more. I promise this is the last one

Tesla: Just to show you how serious we are about this environment thingy, without telling anyone we inserted a self destruct feature in there ala Mission Impossible 2.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 03, 2013, 09:27:26 AM
Quote
"the car's alert system signaled a problem and instructed the driver to pull over safely"

At least you get a warning.

"WARNING your car will self destruct in 20 seconds,
 WARNING your car will self destruct in 19 seconds,
 WARNING ..."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 09:42:04 AM
There are 31 highway vehicle fires per hour.

http://www.tkolb.net/tra_sch/carfires/index.html

And none of them are Teslas.  This one didn't happen on a highway.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 09:47:16 AM
That link I posed shows that 1/10 of 1% of vehicles catch fire annually on the highway.

So we should expect greater than 20 Tesla fires annually now, going forward.  Unless the lack of an internal combustion engine turns out to reduce the number of fires.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 03, 2013, 09:50:00 AM
A search for "car fire" on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=car+fire&page=&utm_source=opensearch
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 09:54:57 AM
So actually, if 1 in 1000 cars catch fire annually on the highway (as my link above suggests)...

Then Tesla makes the least fire-prone cars?

They've had a lot more than 1,000 average cars on the road over the past 12 months, but just 1 fire.  Plus, the Roadsters never caught fire.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on October 03, 2013, 11:30:44 AM
Good post Eric. But just double checking the math: Roughly 200,000 (unintentional) vehicle fires per year from 254 million cars, right? So 7/100 of 1%. If so, on 20,000 Tesla's we'd expect ~14 fires.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 11:35:33 AM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303722604579111052383880112.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews)


Tesla Sedan Roars Ahead in Norway

Norway Has Relatively Small Market But Buyers Are Affluent


Let me guess why. 

1) $10 a gallon for gas in Norway
2)  No value added tax on electric vehicles making a Tesla Model S the same cost as a Volkswagon Passat
3)  Great car
4)  Cheap hydro-generated electricity

What? The Tesla S is the same price as a Passat in Norway? :o

$10/gal gas, $80,000.00 for a Passat. It's a wonder anyone can afford to drive at all.

Well, here's a used 2013 Passat for $66,000:

http://m.ooyyo.no/detail/c=CD17057114D9854F111B926FBAA6355BA3A21D6615F385/-4638969442466894224.html/#

Very affordable!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on October 03, 2013, 11:39:26 AM
folks you want to get even more technical simply using the stats is not sufficient enough

to be more accurate you prob need to find same type of car by price, or compare to luxury sedans

hy

EDIT: i don't know the stats or did i look at it, does the stats break down by car type,  what if a good portion or fire are trucks or small econo cars etc.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 11:48:31 AM
folks you want to get even more technical simply using the stats is not sufficient enough

to be more accurate you prob need to find same type of car by price, or compare to luxury sedans

hy

EDIT: i don't know the stats or did i look at it, does the stats break down by car type,  what if a good portion or fire are trucks or small econo cars etc.

I did find information that stated the majority of highway car fires were electrical in nature (bad wiring).  So it might have to do with the age of the fleet.  In other words, it takes a while for the insulation to go bad.  But that probably degrades faster under extreme conditions (such as the heat from the internal combustion engine may encourage the degradation process).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on October 03, 2013, 12:32:41 PM
I have a question about the relevance of these facts/stats here

Why are we comparing the Tesla cars to other Internal combustion engine cars?
Wasn't the main selling point, this is a paradigm shift and is more like the iPhone and we should really be thinking Tesla as a tech company?
Since these cars use some sort of battery technology, isn't it a better comparison to use those Boeing aircraft's which seem to get grounded every now and then due to fire or those cases of smart phones with exploding batteries?

Also pretty sure when the first Ford Pinto caught fire the highway stats were similar, that wasn't enough for that car to survive.

PS: As for the counter view, I am also mindful I shouldn't be extrapolating one incident of fire and assuming it is some sort of widespread design issue. For all we know it could be a manufacturing defect in that one car.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 12:42:41 PM
I have a question about the relevance of these facts/stats here

Why are we comparing the Tesla cars to other Internal combustion engine cars?
Wasn't the main selling point, this is a paradigm shift and is more like the iPhone and we should really be thinking Tesla as a tech company?
Since these cars use some sort of battery technology, isn't it a better comparison to use those Boeing aircraft's which seem to get grounded every now and then due to fire or those cases of smart phones with exploding batteries?

Also pretty sure when the first Ford Pinto caught fire the highway stats were similar, that wasn't enough for that car to survive.

PS: As for the counter view, I am also mindful I shouldn't be extrapolating one incident of fire and assuming it is some sort of widespread design issue. For all we know it could be a manufacturing defect in that one car.

Don't all cars use some sort of battery technology?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 03, 2013, 12:46:43 PM
I have a question about the relevance of these facts/stats here

Why are we comparing the Tesla cars to other Internal combustion engine cars?
Wasn't the main selling point, this is a paradigm shift and is more like the iPhone and we should really be thinking Tesla as a tech company?
Since these cars use some sort of battery technology, isn't it a better comparison to use those Boeing aircraft's which seem to get grounded every now and then due to fire or those cases of smart phones with exploding batteries?

Also pretty sure when the first Ford Pinto caught fire the highway stats were similar, that wasn't enough for that car to survive.

PS: As for the counter view, I am also mindful I shouldn't be extrapolating one incident of fire and assuming it is some sort of widespread design issue. For all we know it could be a manufacturing defect in that one car.

Don't all cars use some sort of battery technology?

Yes, but 12V lead-acid batteries aren't known for failing spectacularly.  Google "laptop explodes"
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 12:51:22 PM
I have a question about the relevance of these facts/stats here

Why are we comparing the Tesla cars to other Internal combustion engine cars?
Wasn't the main selling point, this is a paradigm shift and is more like the iPhone and we should really be thinking Tesla as a tech company?
Since these cars use some sort of battery technology, isn't it a better comparison to use those Boeing aircraft's which seem to get grounded every now and then due to fire or those cases of smart phones with exploding batteries?

Also pretty sure when the first Ford Pinto caught fire the highway stats were similar, that wasn't enough for that car to survive.

PS: As for the counter view, I am also mindful I shouldn't be extrapolating one incident of fire and assuming it is some sort of widespread design issue. For all we know it could be a manufacturing defect in that one car.

Don't all cars use some sort of battery technology?

Yes, but 12V lead-acid batteries aren't known for failing spectacularly.  Google "laptop explodes"

Laptop batteries aren't liquid cooled.

Google "model S battery pack explodes".
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 12:55:11 PM
Actually, just Google for cars that caught fire without coolant.

Here you go:

Ford blames coolant system for Escape, Fusion fires

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2012/12/10/ford-recall-escape-fusion-ecoboost/1759063/


If the coolant boils over, the engine goes into extreme overheating, which can result in fluids leaking, coming into contact with the hot exhaust system and potentially causing a fire. Ford said it has seen 12 fires in Escapes and one in a Fusion.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rpadebet on October 03, 2013, 01:14:56 PM
Actually, just Google for cars that caught fire without coolant.

Here you go:

Ford blames coolant system for Escape, Fusion fires

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2012/12/10/ford-recall-escape-fusion-ecoboost/1759063/


If the coolant boils over, the engine goes into extreme overheating, which can result in fluids leaking, coming into contact with the hot exhaust system and potentially causing a fire. Ford said it has seen 12 fires in Escapes and one in a Fusion.

So is it possible that in an accident involving a Tesla vehicle, the battery pack gets punctured, the coolant leaks out, eventually the batteries get hot and then explode, causing the fire?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 02:01:20 PM
Actually, just Google for cars that caught fire without coolant.

Here you go:

Ford blames coolant system for Escape, Fusion fires

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2012/12/10/ford-recall-escape-fusion-ecoboost/1759063/


If the coolant boils over, the engine goes into extreme overheating, which can result in fluids leaking, coming into contact with the hot exhaust system and potentially causing a fire. Ford said it has seen 12 fires in Escapes and one in a Fusion.

So is it possible that in an accident involving a Tesla vehicle, the battery pack gets punctured, the coolant leaks out, eventually the batteries get hot and then explode, causing the fire?

No, the Tesla car smashed into a Mercedes, rupturing it's fuel tank, and the Tesla car burned in the resulting gasoline fire long before the battery pack coolant leaked out.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wisdom on October 03, 2013, 02:20:40 PM
From what I understand -
most electrical batteries have this problem. One of the reasons Munger likes BYD is they claim to have virtually gotten rid of this problem with their battery technology.

Even though BYD is the largest manufacturer of batteries for cell phones and laptops, they have had no instances of them catching fire even though the Japanese batteries have been known to burn up.

Check out some of the test videos on BYD.

There was a BYD taxi that had caught fire in a high speed crash - the Nissan GTR was reported to be travelling at 150kmph. Reports indicated that it was not related to the batteries even at that speed. Thus, BYD cars do not need as much protection from the batteries burning up.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on October 03, 2013, 02:36:52 PM
From what I understand -
most electrical batteries have this problem. One of the reasons Munger likes BYD is they claim to have virtually gotten rid of this problem with their battery technology.

Even though BYD is the largest manufacturer of batteries for cell phones and laptops, they have had no instances of them catching fire even though the Japanese batteries have been known to burn up.

Check out some of the test videos on BYD.

There was a BYD taxi that had caught fire in a high speed crash - the Nissan GTR was reported to be travelling at 150kmph. Reports indicated that it was not related to the batteries even at that speed. Thus, BYD cars do not need as much protection from the batteries burning up.

Exactly, we don't say something is wrong with Tesla batteries, or with this fire, but it is true that this is known problematic inherent to most batteries. But there is a lot of research on this, see the links I posted above.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 02:56:51 PM
folks you want to get even more technical simply using the stats is not sufficient enough

to be more accurate you prob need to find same type of car by price, or compare to luxury sedans

hy

EDIT: i don't know the stats or did i look at it, does the stats break down by car type,  what if a good portion or fire are trucks or small econo cars etc.


Do high priced cars catch fire less?  Here is an $840,000 car that caught fire:

http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2012/02/ferrari-ff-catches-fire-in-shanghai.html

Worth about 5.3 million Chinese Yuan, or $840,000 USD, this is not the first FF to set itself on fire. Another FF suffered a similar fate last June, likely caused by defective heat reflectors surrounding the FF’s exhaust.


Of course, the comparison to Model S may not be fair.  The Model S does not have an exhaust system that could contribute to a fire.

Oh wait, we don't worry about things we are familiar with.  We only fear new and exotic ways to be killed.  For example, if the risk is higher in being killed in a car crash on the way to the beach, we will instead not worry about that and only worry about the risk of a shark attack.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 03, 2013, 03:06:51 PM
I have a question about the relevance of these facts/stats here

Why are we comparing the Tesla cars to other Internal combustion engine cars?
Wasn't the main selling point, this is a paradigm shift and is more like the iPhone and we should really be thinking Tesla as a tech company?
Since these cars use some sort of battery technology, isn't it a better comparison to use those Boeing aircraft's which seem to get grounded every now and then due to fire or those cases of smart phones with exploding batteries?

Also pretty sure when the first Ford Pinto caught fire the highway stats were similar, that wasn't enough for that car to survive.

PS: As for the counter view, I am also mindful I shouldn't be extrapolating one incident of fire and assuming it is some sort of widespread design issue. For all we know it could be a manufacturing defect in that one car.

Don't all cars use some sort of battery technology?

Yes, but 12V lead-acid batteries aren't known for failing spectacularly.  Google "laptop explodes"

Here is a comment on lead acid batteries:

Jeff Chamberlain, deputy director of the Joint Center for Energy Storage Research at Argonne National Lab in Illinois, said that like in any other battery fire, it comes down to a short circuit.

"If you puncture any battery, whether it's lead-acid, alkaline or lithium-ion, you'll create a short circuit and make connections across interfaces that you should not be making." he said. "When that short occurs, it creates heat and energy, which causes the fire."


http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/tesla-model-catch-fire/story?id=20462128
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 03, 2013, 03:30:23 PM
Quote
Of course, the comparison to Model S may not be fair.  The Model S does not have an exhaust system that could contribute to a fire.

If you hit a large metal debris and it gets stuck under the car and dragged along, chances are that'll cause quite some sparks.

In a normal collision you probably don't have that.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 04, 2013, 01:02:50 PM
Letter by Elon Musk about the accident:

http://www.businessinsider.com/model-s-fire-elon-musk-2013-10
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on October 04, 2013, 01:34:26 PM
Letter by Elon Musk about the accident:

http://www.businessinsider.com/model-s-fire-elon-musk-2013-10

Good information, thanks!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 04, 2013, 01:43:21 PM
Letter by Elon Musk about the accident:

http://www.businessinsider.com/model-s-fire-elon-musk-2013-10

Yeah, I'm glad he made this point:

Had a conventional gasoline car encountered the same object on the highway, the result could have been far worse. A typical gasoline car only has a thin metal sheet protecting the underbody, leaving it vulnerable to destruction of the fuel supply lines or fuel tank, which causes a pool of gasoline to form and often burn the entire car to the ground. In contrast, the combustion energy of our battery pack is only about 10% of the energy contained in a gasoline tank and is divided into 16 modules with firewalls in between. As a consequence, the effective combustion potential is only about 1% that of the fuel in a comparable gasoline sedan.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on October 06, 2013, 07:01:33 AM
Sometimes what happens is that a company will continually do equity offerings. 

After an equity offering, the underwriters want to see the stock go up in the short term so that their clients get immediate gratification out of buying the shares.  They may put pressure on their analysts to promote the stock, either publicly or privately.  This can turn into a self-reinforcing cycle where the higher share price attracts more investors, makes the company want to sell more overpriced shares, etc. etc.  That behaviour is pyramid scheme-like and is ultimately unsustainable.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on October 06, 2013, 07:24:50 AM
I think Tesla should do a followup offering...if buybacks below IV are accretive to shareholders, shouldn't dilutions above IV be accretive as well?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on October 06, 2013, 12:36:22 PM
I think Tesla should do a followup offering...if buybacks below IV are accretive to shareholders, shouldn't dilutions above IV be accretive as well?

It's accretive for the company and for long term shareholders who bought at a low enough value, but for all other shareholders it is destructive when the price of the company is largely built on hope of future earnings growth that won't accrue to them now that they're sharing profits with s many more people.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on October 06, 2013, 01:15:05 PM
I think Tesla should do a followup offering...if buybacks below IV are accretive to shareholders, shouldn't dilutions above IV be accretive as well?

Yes

It's accretive for the company and for long term shareholders who bought at a low enough value, but for all other shareholders it is destructive when the price of the company is largely built on hope of future earnings growth that won't accrue to them now that they're sharing profits with s many more people.

Do you disagree that a stock issuance at a price significantly above per-share intrinsic value will increase per-share intrinsic value?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 06, 2013, 06:05:45 PM
Letter by Elon Musk about the accident:

http://www.businessinsider.com/model-s-fire-elon-musk-2013-10

Good information, thanks!

I was thinking about this discussion last night when I saw the movie Rush.

Nikki Lauda would probably rather crash in a Tesla if he were going to do it again.

It also made me think about the fires in the Ferrari's of recent years:

http://jalopnik.com/5914282/ferrari-ff-catches-fire-on-polish-freeway

http://wreckedexotics.com/articles/056-458-brazil.shtml
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 07, 2013, 06:05:34 AM
I think Tesla should do a followup offering...if buybacks below IV are accretive to shareholders, shouldn't dilutions above IV be accretive as well?

When a company's stock is this overvalued and the company can really use the money to pour into R&D, I'd agree. Long term it will be better for even the current shareholders.  At these prices they should be looking at diluting the stock 50-100% and really raise some cash.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 24, 2013, 11:27:55 AM
Elon Musk, not mincing words:  “Fuel cells are so bullshit.”

Tesla, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk: ‘Fuel cells are so bullshit’ (and he’s right) (http://venturebeat.com/2013/10/23/tesla-spacex-ceo-elon-musk-fuel-cells-are-so-bullshit-and-hes-right/)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 24, 2013, 02:30:25 PM
We're seeing the new pecking order.

Apple can hire from whoever they want.

But Tesla can hire from Apple :)

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-hires-apple-vp-doug-field-lead-vehicle-programs
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on October 24, 2013, 04:28:03 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/elon-musk-tesla-stock-price-more-than-we-deserve-zf2ULoeGTWeP~~WaUpI1Uw.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 01, 2013, 12:19:33 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/tesla-s-stock-surge-hits-pothole-in-october-cars.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/tesla-s-stock-surge-hits-pothole-in-october-cars.html)


Tesla’s Stock Surge Hits $4.1 Billion Pothole in October
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 05, 2013, 07:25:47 PM
Tesla Retreats After Sales Miss Some Analysts’ Estimates

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/tesla-posts-third-quarterly-profit-on-model-s-boost.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/tesla-posts-third-quarterly-profit-on-model-s-boost.html)

Quote
Model S deliveries totaled about 5,500 in the third quarter, the company said in a statement yesterday on its website. Brian Johnson, an auto analyst at Barclays Plc, had expected 5,820 Model S sales. Dan Galves of Deutsche Bank AG estimated the company would ship 5,850 cars in the quarter.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 07, 2013, 02:46:05 PM
Another fire...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101180014 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101180014)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 12, 2013, 12:21:37 PM
Tesla not planning a Model S recall: Source



http://www.cnbc.com/id/101192173 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101192173)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on November 12, 2013, 12:29:09 PM
There has not yet been a fire that was not caused by collision and physical damage to the battery pack.

It has not yet, for example, demonstrated the ability to set itself on fire when just driving along -- primarily because it does not have this extremely hot thing called an internal combustion engine:

http://www.mibz.com/13968-shocking-a-porsche-911-turbo-caught-on-fire-suddenly-in-usa.html

The driver of a Porsche 911 Turbo has encountered problems while commuting to the office. His car caught fire and the flames were quickly extended to the model cloth roof after they have expanded rapidly in tight engine compartment of athletes from Stuttgart. It appears the fire started to the engine, but its exact causes are not known yet.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on November 12, 2013, 12:35:11 PM
I know this has already been posted, but worth posting again:

http://www.nfpa.org/research/fire-statistics/the-us-fire-problem/highway-vehicle-fires

So if you had 20% market share, you could expect around 37,000 of your cars to catch on fire each year. Imagine if the media covered each one...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 12, 2013, 02:59:54 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/13/business/energy-environment/electric-cars-give-rise-to-a-recharging-industry.html?ref=international (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/13/business/energy-environment/electric-cars-give-rise-to-a-recharging-industry.html?ref=international)

Electric Cars Give Rise to a Recharging Industry
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 18, 2013, 04:32:31 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/tesla-falls-amid-california-factory-probe-san-francisco-mover.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/tesla-falls-amid-california-factory-probe-san-francisco-mover.html)

Tesla Falls Amid California Factory Probe
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on November 19, 2013, 06:32:49 AM
Good post by Elon Musk on the safety of Tesla S and bad journalism...

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mission-tesla
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: valueInv on November 19, 2013, 07:39:42 AM
Good post by Elon Musk on the safety of Tesla S and bad journalism...

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mission-tesla

Probably the quality I. Admire about Musk the most is that he speaks his mind. He does not hold back.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on November 19, 2013, 09:57:45 AM
Good post by Elon Musk on the safety of Tesla S and bad journalism...

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mission-tesla

Thanks for posting. It's interesting that a car company can be worth $24 billion in October and $15.5 billion in November because of three car fires. I imagine it has something to do with over-optimism and a failure to understand base rates.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 19, 2013, 11:01:15 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/tesla-tweaks-model-s-to-avert-recall-seen-damaging-image.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/tesla-tweaks-model-s-to-avert-recall-seen-damaging-image.html)


Tesla Tweaks Model S to Avert Recall Seen Damaging Image
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 21, 2013, 04:27:39 PM
Musk Claim of Fewer Tesla Fires Questioned in MIT Report

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/musk-claim-of-fewer-tesla-fires-questioned-in-mit-report.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/musk-claim-of-fewer-tesla-fires-questioned-in-mit-report.html)




Tesla Model S Tops Consumer Reports Survey of Owners

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/tesla-model-s-tops-consumer-reports-survey-of-owners.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/tesla-model-s-tops-consumer-reports-survey-of-owners.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: meiroy on November 26, 2013, 07:09:29 AM
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/11/why-you-might-buy-electricity-from-elon-musk-some-day/281824/

"Attached to the wall is a charging station for Krapels’ Tesla Motors Model S electric sports sedan. And next to the charger are two metal boxes that effectively render Pacific Gas & Electric, the 108-year-old utility that serves Northern California, irrelevant. One box channels electricity generated by the SolarCity photovoltaic panels on the house’s roof. The other, a 10-kilowatt Tesla lithium-ion battery pack, can store up to three days’ worth of carbon-free electricity generated by Krapels’ solar array. "
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on November 26, 2013, 07:58:53 AM
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/11/why-you-might-buy-electricity-from-elon-musk-some-day/281824/

"Attached to the wall is a charging station for Krapels’ Tesla Motors Model S electric sports sedan. And next to the charger are two metal boxes that effectively render Pacific Gas & Electric, the 108-year-old utility that serves Northern California, irrelevant. One box channels electricity generated by the SolarCity photovoltaic panels on the house’s roof. The other, a 10-kilowatt Tesla lithium-ion battery pack, can store up to three days’ worth of carbon-free electricity generated by Krapels’ solar array. "


The utilities are clearly scared.  And I think with good reason.  Maintaining a huge network of power lines running everywhere and fixing them every time there is a snow storm or a windy day just isn't going to be economically feasible someday.  And I have a feeling that this someday is going to be closer than most people think.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on November 26, 2013, 08:36:07 AM
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/11/why-you-might-buy-electricity-from-elon-musk-some-day/281824/

"Attached to the wall is a charging station for Krapels’ Tesla Motors Model S electric sports sedan. And next to the charger are two metal boxes that effectively render Pacific Gas & Electric, the 108-year-old utility that serves Northern California, irrelevant. One box channels electricity generated by the SolarCity photovoltaic panels on the house’s roof. The other, a 10-kilowatt Tesla lithium-ion battery pack, can store up to three days’ worth of carbon-free electricity generated by Krapels’ solar array. "


How the hell can you pull the plug on your electric utility when you drive a car with an 85 kWh battery pack?

Umm... my electricity demand has gone up since I bought a Tesla Model S, not down. 

This makes the electric utilities more necessary, not less.  It's the gas station that is less necessary.  Electric cars are a growth thing for electric utilities.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on November 26, 2013, 09:00:21 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/tesla-woos-car-guys-with-rides-to-counter-dealers-cash.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on November 26, 2013, 11:42:43 AM
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/11/why-you-might-buy-electricity-from-elon-musk-some-day/281824/

"Attached to the wall is a charging station for Krapels’ Tesla Motors Model S electric sports sedan. And next to the charger are two metal boxes that effectively render Pacific Gas & Electric, the 108-year-old utility that serves Northern California, irrelevant. One box channels electricity generated by the SolarCity photovoltaic panels on the house’s roof. The other, a 10-kilowatt Tesla lithium-ion battery pack, can store up to three days’ worth of carbon-free electricity generated by Krapels’ solar array. "


How the hell can you pull the plug on your electric utility when you drive a car with an 85 kWh battery pack?

Umm... my electricity demand has gone up since I bought a Tesla Model S, not down. 

This makes the electric utilities more necessary, not less.  It's the gas station that is less necessary.  Electric cars are a growth thing for electric utilities.

I agree with the gas stations. Maybe I'll be wrong here, but the most compelling thing about Tesla, to me, is that they're building out a nation wide infrastructure for electric cars. Once they've done that, it'll be far cheaper and easier for everyone to just submit to their standard and Tesla can then charge everyone who wants to "fill up" a user fee for it's stations. Tesla's, of course, would still be free to fill. This would give Tesla a recurring, consistent revenue stream. I'd much rather own the monopoly that collects consistent cash flows than a finicky car company that always has to stay on the leading edge of production.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on December 02, 2013, 01:54:34 PM
Wait... a car crashed and burst into flames... but it wasn't a Tesla?

The Santa Clarita Valley Signal reported that the Porsche crashed into a light pole and tree and burst into flames.

http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/publicist-fast-furious-star-dies-car-crash-21059317
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on December 03, 2013, 07:44:17 AM
Wait... a car crashed and burst into flames... but it wasn't a Tesla?

The Santa Clarita Valley Signal reported that the Porsche crashed into a light pole and tree and burst into flames.

http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/publicist-fast-furious-star-dies-car-crash-21059317

Not only that, but check out what can happen if you don't have an armor plate and a battery protecting you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJUWXRWK4xs
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on December 03, 2013, 08:12:53 AM
lol i love this in the musk blog piece:

Quote
It is also why arsonists tend to favor gasoline. Trying to set the side of a building on fire with a battery pack is far less effective.

Must be so frustrating if your an extremly smart guy like Musk in a world full of mostly idiots :) .
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on December 06, 2013, 05:54:52 PM
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-06/teslas-solar-power-storage-unit#r=rss (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-06/teslas-solar-power-storage-unit#r=rss)


Tesla's Industrial-Grade Solar Power Storage System
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on December 07, 2013, 08:42:00 AM
Ford said it is recalling nearly 140,000 2013 Escape SUVs with 1.6-liter engines in the United States — and 161,333 worldwide — because of fires caused by overheating of the engine cylinder head, which can crack and leak oil. Ford said it had received reports of 13 fires, including one in Canada, stemming from the engine issue.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131126/AUTO0102/311260052#ixzz2mo8SIk9R

Okay, is the NHTSA going to investigate the fires caused by internal combustion engines to consider whether they are safe enough for the road?

You've had Dick Van Dyke's Jaguar go up in smoke:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/driveon/2013/10/24/dick-van-dyke-jaguar/3177097/

You've had Paul Walker's Porche explode a minute after the collision:
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/paul-walker-childhood-friend-pull-burning-porsche-article-1.1540597

There's a bazillion of these incidents...  And there have been what... 3 Tesla fires, all collision-related, and in all cases the driver walked from the scene?

Three Lamborghinis burn:
http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/trio-lamborghinis-burn-million-dollar-wreck-005325869.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: twacowfca on December 07, 2013, 03:48:42 PM
Ford said it is recalling nearly 140,000 2013 Escape SUVs with 1.6-liter engines in the United States — and 161,333 worldwide — because of fires caused by overheating of the engine cylinder head, which can crack and leak oil. Ford said it had received reports of 13 fires, including one in Canada, stemming from the engine issue.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131126/AUTO0102/311260052#ixzz2mo8SIk9R

Okay, is the NHTSA going to investigate the fires caused by internal combustion engines to consider whether they are safe enough for the road?

You've had Dick Van Dyke's Jaguar go up in smoke:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/driveon/2013/10/24/dick-van-dyke-jaguar/3177097/

You've had Paul Walker's Porche explode a minute after the collision:
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/paul-walker-childhood-friend-pull-burning-porsche-article-1.1540597

There's a bazillion of these incidents...  And there have been what... 3 Tesla fires, all collision-related, and in all cases the driver walked from the scene?

Three Lamborghinis burn:
http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/trio-lamborghinis-burn-million-dollar-wreck-005325869.html


And then . . .  There is the lithium battery in the Dreamliner  . . .  And one firey Toyota accident on the freeway caused by unintended acceleration.  But Loyal Tesla owners will shrug this off.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on December 07, 2013, 04:12:15 PM
Ford said it is recalling nearly 140,000 2013 Escape SUVs with 1.6-liter engines in the United States — and 161,333 worldwide — because of fires caused by overheating of the engine cylinder head, which can crack and leak oil. Ford said it had received reports of 13 fires, including one in Canada, stemming from the engine issue.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131126/AUTO0102/311260052#ixzz2mo8SIk9R

Okay, is the NHTSA going to investigate the fires caused by internal combustion engines to consider whether they are safe enough for the road?

You've had Dick Van Dyke's Jaguar go up in smoke:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/driveon/2013/10/24/dick-van-dyke-jaguar/3177097/

You've had Paul Walker's Porche explode a minute after the collision:
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/paul-walker-childhood-friend-pull-burning-porsche-article-1.1540597

There's a bazillion of these incidents...  And there have been what... 3 Tesla fires, all collision-related, and in all cases the driver walked from the scene?

Three Lamborghinis burn:
http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/trio-lamborghinis-burn-million-dollar-wreck-005325869.html


And then . . .  There is the lithium battery in the Dreamliner  . . .  And one firey Toyota accident on the freeway caused by unintended acceleration.  But Loyal Tesla owners will shrug this off.

An Ohio man died while smoking near a gasoline powered lawnmower:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2459718/Ohio-man-dies-smoking-near-gasoline-powered-lawnmower.html

I bring this up because if the containment method of the type of fuel is relevant to it's safety, then you can't compare the Dreamliner battery to the Tesla's.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on December 10, 2013, 07:08:23 AM
another point of view a little old

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2013/09/valuation-of-week-1-tesla-test.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on December 11, 2013, 09:53:19 AM
http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2013/12/11/tesla-moves-to-expand-charging-network-for-coast-to-coast-trips/?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth (http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2013/12/11/tesla-moves-to-expand-charging-network-for-coast-to-coast-trips/?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth)

Tesla Moves to Expand Charging Network For Coast-to-Coast Trips
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on December 19, 2013, 03:44:29 PM
Model S in Norway, winter driving:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TelUR5Bg9zE&feature=youtu.be&a=&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DTelUR5Bg9zE%26feature%3Dyoutu.be%26a%3D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: tyska on December 19, 2013, 04:04:00 PM
Model S in Norway, winter driving:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TelUR5Bg9zE&feature=youtu.be&a=&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DTelUR5Bg9zE%26feature%3Dyoutu.be%26a%3D

 Wow he gets everything provided for free when he drives a Tesla. Must be those magical Scandinavian money gnomes providing it all.  ;D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on December 19, 2013, 04:22:02 PM
Wow he gets everything provided for free when he drives a Tesla. Must be those magical Scandinavian money gnomes providing it all.  ;D

The US has some of those gnomes too. Superchargers are free to all Tesla customers everywhere, and many places provide access to HOV lanes and parkings for free for electric cars.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on December 19, 2013, 04:32:13 PM
Wow he gets everything provided for free when he drives a Tesla. Must be those magical Scandinavian money gnomes providing it all.  ;D

The US has some of those gnomes too. Superchargers are free to all Tesla customers everywhere, and many places provide access to HOV lanes and parkings for free for electric cars.


The orange cones are the Superchargers currently under construction -- the red dots are already completed:

http://www.teslawiki.net/supercharger/

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on December 24, 2013, 09:56:16 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-23/tesla-model-s-keeps-nhtsa-5-star-rating-amid-u-s-safety-review.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-23/tesla-model-s-keeps-nhtsa-5-star-rating-amid-u-s-safety-review.html)

Tesla Shares Rise After Model S Keeps NHTSA 5-Star Rating
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on December 31, 2013, 11:51:21 AM


 


Tesla: value components
 




It is not quite right to say that the US carmaker is now bigger than Fiat
 

Tesla had an amazing ride in 2013 – its shares rose more than 300 per cent. But has Elon Musk’s electric carmaker really become a larger company than Italian automaker Fiat as many headlines have asserted? Its market capitalisation of $17bn, compared with Fiat’s of less than $10bn, indicates so. But investors should recognise that equity value gives an incomplete picture of a company’s worth. It does not account for all the claims on a company’s assets and profits that would collectively give the correct indication of the business’s size.


 
Enterprise value – the value of the equity plus total debt, preferred stock and non-controlling interests, less cash and equity investments – is a superior measure. Fiat’s enterprise value is $27bn, according to S&P Capital IQ, while Tesla’s comes in at $21bn. (The latter company’s net debt is, in effect, zero.) Not only is Tesla smaller by this measure, but investors should note that it will sell only 20,000 cars in 2013 while Turin-based Fiat will sell a vastly larger 5m vehicles. A higher proportion of Fiat’s revenues and operating profits “belong” to holders of instruments that are not common equity – the Italian manufacturer has net debt of $15bn. This results from managers loading the company with borrowings and from the movement of its share price. Fiat has a market value/book value ratio of 1.1. By sharp contrast, Tesla’s market value/book ratio is 35.
 
This distinction between enterprise value and equity value goes to the heart of the objective of managers. Should they maximise enterprise value or equity value? The answer is nuanced. They should maximise equity returns. Fiat could issue equity in order to reduce debt. Enterprise value would be unchanged, but equity value would rise. But Fiat’s equity value per share would fall due to the dilutive nature of the newly issued equity.
 
In similar vein, Tesla could raise debt to buy back shares. Its total equity value would fall, but earnings per share accretion could boost its share price – and thus returns to the US carmaker’s shareholders. Financial engineering does not sell cars. But capital structure tweaks can nicely supplement the returns for shareholders.



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/f9a1aa2c-65c5-11e3-8451-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2p5B5xEkz (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/f9a1aa2c-65c5-11e3-8451-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2p5B5xEkz)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on December 31, 2013, 12:01:24 PM
... Fiat could issue equity in order to reduce debt .... Tesla could raise debt to buy back shares ...

I'd say the article got it completely backwards.  Fiat should be buying back shares, while Tesla should be issuing them by the boat load.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on January 10, 2014, 01:51:09 PM
Hour-long interview with Elon Musk and his brother, conducted by Jeff Skoll:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Kp6CMS9Uxc&list=TLFbj9TAw4Be1iIKHYriZhe6zD3_8TpTz6&noredirect=1
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on January 11, 2014, 08:29:06 AM
GM truck fires:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/10/autos/gm-truck-recall/index.html?iid=HP_LN

Nice!

In the meantime, GM urged owners of the trucks in question "to avoid leaving their trucks to idle unattended."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on January 14, 2014, 10:19:43 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-revenue-expected-exceed-guidance-20-fourth-quarter

6900 tesla S this quarter.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on January 23, 2014, 09:08:29 PM
Tesla in China to Charge $120,000 for Model S
Price Puts Electric Car in Middle of the Pack for Luxury Vehicles

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304632204579337951016266742?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304632204579337951016266742?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on February 10, 2014, 05:14:30 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-10/tesla-reaches-record-as-investors-anticipate-foreign-sale.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-10/tesla-reaches-record-as-investors-anticipate-foreign-sale.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 19, 2014, 09:00:57 AM
tsla should try to raise as much money as possible now

i guess the following could/might be the reason why they are not:
- they believe they don't need it, why dilute when you don't need to (this can both be right or it could be pride/greed)
- it might look bad
- no one is interested


if elon musk really want to insure the future of tsla now it is the time to raise boat load of cash ... unless they are working on selling this beast.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 19, 2014, 01:42:31 PM
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2612790357x7382497x727013/9885dd26-2e82-4052-b171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf

Up 12% after hours so far.

Anyone still short?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 19, 2014, 03:04:45 PM
yessir! As the one of the  board's short seller apologists, and as a  naive "no i'm not listening to not short on valuation because i have my head in the sand" 25 year old, I am short a few shares of Tesla. I can withstand the volatility...too a point.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 20, 2014, 05:25:35 PM
The Tesla service center manager in Van Nuys left me a voicemail yesterday.  They (at their cost) are offering to send a "service ranger" out to my house to fix my glovebox.  Another option is they will put my car on a flatbed truck and take it to their service center to fix it.  Meanwhile, they would of course leave me with an equivalent fully loaded Model S "loaner" to drive while they work on my car.

This is all because I bitched on the Tesla.com enthusiast forum that my glove box won't pop open when I push the button to release the catch -- you have to first push the button and then manually pull the glovebox door open.  This problem was even present at the time of delivery. 

The only reason why I haven't asked to get it fixed is that there is a service center opening near me soon.  So I figured, hey, no rush.

But really, can you believe they are offering to flatbed my car to their nearest service center, provide me with a loaner, and all because of my glovebox not popping open automatically?

I'm a bit amazed. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on February 20, 2014, 06:36:53 PM

yessir! As the one of the  board's short seller apologists, and as a  naive "no i'm not listening to not short on valuation because i have my head in the sand" 25 year old, I am short a few shares of Tesla. I can withstand the volatility...too a point.

I was short at $160. Was fortunate enough to close out for a small gain when the last route occurred after watching it rise 25% in no time at all. Considering doing something puts on this one but am waiting to see how things shake I'm. Ive definitely learned my lesson of shorting without a foreseeable catalyst with Amazon.
The Tesla service center manager in Van Nuys left me a voicemail yesterday.  They (at their cost) are offering to send a "service ranger" out to my house to fix my glovebox.  Another option is they will put my car on a flatbed truck and take it to their service center to fix it.  Meanwhile, they would of course leave me with an equivalent fully loaded Model S "loaner" to drive while they work on my car.

This is all because I bitched on the Tesla.com enthusiast forum that my glove box won't pop open when I push the button to release the catch -- you have to first push the button and then manually pull the glovebox door open.  This problem was even present at the time of delivery. 

The only reason why I haven't asked to get it fixed is that there is a service center opening near me soon.  So I figured, hey, no rush.

But really, can you believe they are offering to flatbed my car to their nearest service center, provide me with a loaner, and all because of my glovebox not popping open automatically?

I'm a bit amazed.

From a consumer standpoint this in incredible. From a business standpoint it's burning cash to build loyalty. The question is what's more valuable: the loyalty or the cash. Once Tesla be becomes a mass market producer, as it aims to be, this will not continue. It can't. It would eat too much cash to have thousands of loaner vehicles available daily for people with glove box problems. Will customers who grew used to this kind of treatment react poorly when it stops? Will this actually damage their reputation by setting expectations too high to be sustainable? I think they're a phenomenal company but it's also a mouth watering short given the economics.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on February 20, 2014, 06:42:45 PM
Anyone still short?

Thank god I covered.  This is crazy though... the market cap is twice that of Fiat's.  Less than half that of GM's and Ford's but catching up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 20, 2014, 07:05:11 PM
From a consumer standpoint this in incredible. From a business standpoint it's burning cash to build loyalty. The question is what's more valuable: the loyalty or the cash. Once Tesla be becomes a mass market producer, as it aims to be, this will not continue. It can't. It would eat too much cash to have thousands of loaner vehicles available daily for people with glove box problems. Will customers who grew used to this kind of treatment react poorly when it stops? Will this actually damage their reputation by setting expectations too high to be sustainable? I think they're a phenomenal company but it's also a mouth watering short given the economics.

I think they're smart enough to figure it out. One easy way is to differentiate like Toyota did with Lexus. Lexus customers don't expect the same service as Toyota customers. Either they could create a new brand, or make it otherwise clear that the extra premium service is only available to the premium models.

I think that even without going to crazy lengths, they should easily be able to provide much better service than other automakers at the mass-market level because they will control their service network entirely and won't have third party dealers (who often only care about making money on service, something that Tesla said it won't do). It's similar to how you'll get better service at the Apple store for Apple products than at a Best Buy for a random electronics brand.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on February 20, 2014, 08:31:55 PM
Eric, great anecdote for us who are observing the company from the outside! Musk is building loyalty and upping the game.

Question for you Eric. I read an article in Thursday's WSJ which said that they are offering free high speed data and internet radio to the cars for four years. Any color on this?

Here's the info in the WSJ article:
Quote
It announced Wednesday the addition of free high-speed data connections and Internet radio to customers for four years.
"Tesla Projects Big Increase in Production"
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198.html (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 20, 2014, 08:49:22 PM
Eric, great anecdote for us who are observing the company from the outside! Musk is building loyalty and upping the game.

Question for you Eric. I read an article in Thursday's WSJ which said that they are offering free high speed data and internet radio to the cars for four years. Any color on this?

Here's the info in the WSJ article:
Quote
It announced Wednesday the addition of free high-speed data connections and Internet radio to customers for four years.
"Tesla Projects Big Increase in Production"
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198.html (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303636404579393391643110198.html)

It was announced when they released their financials.  Initially when I bought the car there was talk that they would begin charging money after a few months -- so it was a surprise to hear that we will get an additional four years for free.

I use the Slacker internet radio all the time.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 22, 2014, 04:29:33 PM
Article about the planned Tesla battery plant:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/22/autos/tesla-gigafactory/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

The size of the plant will be massive. Musk predicted in November that it would have a capacity equal to all factories making lithium ion batteries around the globe. That includes lithium batteries going into Teslas as well as laptops, tablets and smart phones.


The company has given no clues about the cost of the plant, though Musk suggested Wednesday the company may issue more shares of its high-flying stock to raise some of the cash it needs to build it. Kallo thinks the plant could cost $2 billion to $5 billion. Irwin says the cost could top $10 billion.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 22, 2014, 04:31:25 PM
I don't think the short sellers have any real idea of what Tesla's IV is.  Shorting it just seems speculative.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 24, 2014, 12:20:50 PM
Tesla service at my house!  These guys are awesome.  I bet Porsche doesn't do that.





Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on February 24, 2014, 12:41:04 PM
very nice! I assume that is the ranger service.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 24, 2014, 12:49:21 PM
Eric, is your next step buying a ride on a SpaceX rocket?

I can't wait for the news on the gigafactory this week. I think it could be a real gamechanger, bringing the cost of batteries way down and paving the way for their mass-market EV in 3-4 years.

Those of you who are still short might want to read up on that gigafactory. Looking at the history of Tesla, I'm pretty sure the market will be positively surprised by the size, partners, and future battery pack cost-projections.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 24, 2014, 01:31:20 PM
Eric, is your next step buying a ride on a SpaceX rocket?

Never -- too scary.

The next step is buying a Tesla Model X next year for my wife to drive.

She hates having to fill her BMW with gas.  She is envious that I never have to stop for gas, I never have to think about the oil level, the oil change, and bringing it into the shop for annual service.

All of that annoying car ownership stuff -- it all disappears with Tesla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 25, 2014, 07:05:54 AM
So it seems like market cap of TSLA has now caught up with Porsche.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on February 25, 2014, 07:22:11 AM
Article about the planned Tesla battery plant:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/22/autos/tesla-gigafactory/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

The size of the plant will be massive. Musk predicted in November that it would have a capacity equal to all factories making lithium ion batteries around the globe. That includes lithium batteries going into Teslas as well as laptops, tablets and smart phones.


The company has given no clues about the cost of the plant, though Musk suggested Wednesday the company may issue more shares of its high-flying stock to raise some of the cash it needs to build it. Kallo thinks the plant could cost $2 billion to $5 billion. Irwin says the cost could top $10 billion.

That battery plant keeps on getting cheaper if they pay for it in TSLA stock!  There has been speculation about Apple's M&A person talking to Musk and icars and other foolishness but is it not reasonable to assume a great partnership between the two on this battery plant?  Apple\s got tons of money and uses tons of batteries.  It would actually be a sensible and prudent use of their cash - as opposed to buying an instant messaging app or something similar.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 25, 2014, 07:27:00 AM
Article about the planned Tesla battery plant:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/22/autos/tesla-gigafactory/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

The size of the plant will be massive. Musk predicted in November that it would have a capacity equal to all factories making lithium ion batteries around the globe. That includes lithium batteries going into Teslas as well as laptops, tablets and smart phones.


The company has given no clues about the cost of the plant, though Musk suggested Wednesday the company may issue more shares of its high-flying stock to raise some of the cash it needs to build it. Kallo thinks the plant could cost $2 billion to $5 billion. Irwin says the cost could top $10 billion.

That battery plant keeps on getting cheaper if they pay for it in TSLA stock!  There has been speculation about Apple's M&A person talking to Musk and icars and other foolishness but is it not reasonable to assume a great partnership between the two on this battery plant?  Apple\s got tons of money and uses tons of batteries.  It would actually be a sensible and prudent use of their cash - as opposed to buying an instant messaging app or something similar.

Tesla supplies batteries to Solar City as well -- the residential battery packs.  So you can imagine this plant to be producing lots of batteries for homes and businesses to store energy off-peak for use during peak.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on February 25, 2014, 07:47:45 AM
You could imagine a company like Apple partnering with Tesla on the factory, but on the Q4 CC they elude to the fact that all the capacity of this factory will be needed for Tesla and SolarCity.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 25, 2014, 07:49:23 AM
I actually wouldn't be that surprised if Apple was a partner on the factory, along with probably Panasonic.

Apple has been making noise for a while that they want to bring back more manufacturing to the US (they did it with the new Mac Pro), but they won't do it if it results in much higher costs. Something like a massive battery factory that makes the lowest-cost and highest-quality batteries in the world would fit the bill perfectly.

Even from a branding perspective, people don't give a crap about most batteries, they're the ultimate commodity... Except maybe for Tesla batteries. Saying you have a Tesla battery in your iPhone 7 or Macbook Pro would be very attractive to many people.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 25, 2014, 05:27:36 PM
Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.

This is an excellent point to revisit in light of news of the upcoming battery factory.

Still not vertically integrated?

BTW: How come I haven't seen a BYD car on the road?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on February 25, 2014, 05:50:50 PM
Anyone on this board make a lot of money on tesla stock?
I made zero as I never bought  a share.
I thought about buying a small amount after the ridiculous media coverage over the fires but never did.
The stock has doubled since then.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 25, 2014, 06:18:07 PM
Anyone on this board make a lot of money on tesla stock?
I made zero as I never bought  a share.
I thought about buying a small amount after the ridiculous media coverage over the fires but never did.
The stock has doubled since then.

I've never owned any. I probably should have bought a few sometime after the IPO as a speculative bet since I've followed the company since 2006 and was pretty sure they'd eventually do great things.. Oh well, this one falls in the "interesting to learn about" pile, not the "invest into" pile.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: no_thanks on February 25, 2014, 06:23:59 PM
Anyone on this board make a lot of money on tesla stock?
I made zero as I never bought  a share.
I thought about buying a small amount after the ridiculous media coverage over the fires but never did.
The stock has doubled since then.

I've never owned any. I probably should have bought a few sometime after the IPO as a speculative bet since I've followed the company since 2006 and was pretty sure they'd eventually do great things.. Oh well, this one falls in the "interesting to learn about" pile, not the "invest into" pile.

I bought a tiny amount at 37 so I wouldn't be ashamed when my grandkids ask about it 50 years from now.  I couldn't believe it went to 60 though, and sold :)  I'll tell the grandkids I had principles when they ask for big expensive presents. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on February 25, 2014, 06:28:21 PM

They are in China and they focus on busses. There are no tesla outside of North America either. But I see your point.

Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.

This is an excellent point to revisit in light of news of the upcoming battery factory.

Still not vertically integrated?

BTW: How come I haven't seen a BYD car on the road?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on February 25, 2014, 06:33:08 PM

They are in China and they focus on busses. There are no tesla outside of North America either. But I see your point.

Oh, they don't make the Michelin Pilot Sport tires that go on the performance plus vehicle.  So they're not vertically integrated.

That's another one to bring up.

Except that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car so having cost advantages in battery production actually DOES matter.

This is an excellent point to revisit in light of news of the upcoming battery factory.

Still not vertically integrated?

BTW: How come I haven't seen a BYD car on the road?

Sorry Gary, but there is even a Supercharger network in Europe, and they recently started to sell in China also. So Tesla is already international.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on February 25, 2014, 06:42:17 PM
Byd is supposedly selling buses in London if I recall.  I just don't se tesla. I do see them in Vancouver only. But that's because we are on the west coast, more "green" ...

Not disagreeing tesla might be doing better. But counting on the street in one region is not a good test.  Same test as counting bb10 phones in Canada means nothing.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 25, 2014, 07:28:49 PM
Byd is supposedly selling buses in London if I recall.  I just don't se tesla. I do see them in Vancouver only. But that's because we are on the west coast, more "green" ...

Yep, no BYD cars in the "green" area, where electric cars have the most promise.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on February 26, 2014, 12:25:55 PM
I did some math on what Tesla the business has to do to justify the current market cap of $31 billion.

The question I'm asking myself is if I bought Tesla today for $31 billion, can the company deliver enough profit to me, soon enough, to make it a sensible investment.
 
I'll define "soon enough" as 30 years, and "sensible investment" as one that delivers a 10% annual return (as it happens this has been the approximate market return from equities over the past 50 years). I'm going to define "profit" not as GAAP Net income, but as owner earnings. That is, the amount of money the company earns that could theoretically be paid out to owners as a dividend and still leave the company healthy enough to maintain it's unit volume production and competitive position.
 
Last year Tesla made zero GAAP net income, but if they spent 50% less in research and development, they could have paid out roughly $30 million in dividends. This figure is a sensible estimate for owner earnings and we'll use this as a base going forward.
 
I'll start by estimating next year's owner earnings (Year 1 of 30) to be $30 million. The question then becomes, how fast must owner earnings rise over the following 29 years to justify a purchase price of 31 billion dollars?

Well, the answer is 32% compounded annually. Is this type of growth achievable? We're going to find out.
 
Given our investment return parameters and the $31 billion price tag, Tesla needs to be earning 360 million dollars after-tax in 10 years. Given corporate tax rates, this means it needs to be earning 550 million pre-tax. How many cars does it need to sell in Year 10 to earn $550 million? If the gross margin on their mass-market car is an optimistic 25%, they can sell a car for 40k that they make for 32k, and every car will generate an 8k gross profit.
 
Now I'm going to estimate that SG&A expenses as a percentage of gross profit run at 50%. (The average among BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai is 60%) I'm going to rather optimistically say that SG&A expenses cover all operating expenses. How many mass market cars must be sold to generate a pre-tax profit of $550 million in 10 years? The answer is 137,500 cars. Achievable? Yes.
 
In 20 years, Tesla must be making 5.8 billion after-tax, or $8.9 billion pre-tax. How many cars must be sold that year? 2,225,000. Achievable? It's possible.
 
In 30 years, Tesla must make $94 billion after-tax, or $144.6 billion pre-tax. How many cars must be sold in year 30? 36.15 million. To put this number in perspective, in the entire world, 82.84 million vehicles were sold last year. In 30 years Tesla must occupy 43.6% of today's global automobile market.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 26, 2014, 01:30:17 PM
Anyone on this board make a lot of money on tesla stock?
I made zero as I never bought  a share.
I thought about buying a small amount after the ridiculous media coverage over the fires but never did.
The stock has doubled since then.

This is in the exact same category as Amazon.com, in that I've been following it since the beginning and never bought a single share.   Like Amazon, I'll probably follow it for decades (and maybe even be a customer eventually), but never own it.  I have a feeling that regardless of how much it grows or how well the company does the stock will never be cheap, because people like the story and they like Musk. It will be cheap if something happens to Musk (he gets hit by a bus or something), or it fails miserably (another company emerges with a much better technology and Tesla can't keep up), and if either of those things happen I wouldn't want to own it anyway.  People will post all kinds of things about what it would need to do to justify its price, the problem is that people where saying that when it was $30/share and they may still be saying that still in 10 years.  This just isn't a value stock and it won't be.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 26, 2014, 01:38:46 PM
Gigafactory details:

http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf

+

http://www.teslamotors.com/about/press/releases/tesla-announces-16-billion-convertible-notes-offering
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 01:50:25 PM
I did some math on what Tesla the business has to do to justify the current market cap of $31 billion.

The question I'm asking myself is if I bought Tesla today for $31 billion, can the company deliver enough profit to me, soon enough, to make it a sensible investment.
 
I'll define "soon enough" as 30 years, and "sensible investment" as one that delivers a 10% annual return (as it happens this has been the approximate market return from equities over the past 50 years). I'm going to define "profit" not as GAAP Net income, but as owner earnings. That is, the amount of money the company earns that could theoretically be paid out to owners as a dividend and still leave the company healthy enough to maintain it's unit volume production and competitive position.
 
Last year Tesla made zero GAAP net income, but if they spent 50% less in research and development, they could have paid out roughly $30 million in dividends. This figure is a sensible estimate for owner earnings and we'll use this as a base going forward.
 
I'll start by estimating next year's owner earnings (Year 1 of 30) to be $30 million. The question then becomes, how fast must owner earnings rise over the following 29 years to justify a purchase price of 31 billion dollars?

Well, the answer is 32% compounded annually. Is this type of growth achievable? We're going to find out.
 
Given our investment return parameters and the $31 billion price tag, Tesla needs to be earning 360 million dollars after-tax in 10 years. Given corporate tax rates, this means it needs to be earning 550 million pre-tax. How many cars does it need to sell in Year 10 to earn $550 million? If the gross margin on their mass-market car is an optimistic 25%, they can sell a car for 40k that they make for 32k, and every car will generate an 8k gross profit.
 
Now I'm going to estimate that SG&A expenses as a percentage of gross profit run at 50%. (The average among BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai is 60%) I'm going to rather optimistically say that SG&A expenses cover all operating expenses. How many mass market cars must be sold to generate a pre-tax profit of $550 million in 10 years? The answer is 137,500 cars. Achievable? Yes.
 
In 20 years, Tesla must be making 5.8 billion after-tax, or $8.9 billion pre-tax. How many cars must be sold that year? 2,225,000. Achievable? It's possible.
 
In 30 years, Tesla must make $94 billion after-tax, or $144.6 billion pre-tax. How many cars must be sold in year 30? 36.15 million. To put this number in perspective, in the entire world, 82.84 million vehicles were sold last year. In 30 years Tesla must occupy 43.6% of today's global automobile market.

Some more math:

500,000 vehicle volume in 2020
$10,000 average profit per vehicle before tax

That's $5 billion profit, before tax.

Give it a 25% tax rate, for $3.75b.

So the stock today trades at 8.3x 2020 earnings.

2020 vehicle volume estimate comes from here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf

So it's cheaper than the index.  Assuming the above math/assumptions is right.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on February 26, 2014, 02:25:32 PM
I did some math on what Tesla the business has to do to justify the current market cap of $31 billion.

The question I'm asking myself is if I bought Tesla today for $31 billion, can the company deliver enough profit to me, soon enough, to make it a sensible investment.
 
I'll define "soon enough" as 30 years, and "sensible investment" as one that delivers a 10% annual return (as it happens this has been the approximate market return from equities over the past 50 years). I'm going to define "profit" not as GAAP Net income, but as owner earnings. That is, the amount of money the company earns that could theoretically be paid out to owners as a dividend and still leave the company healthy enough to maintain it's unit volume production and competitive position.
 
Last year Tesla made zero GAAP net income, but if they spent 50% less in research and development, they could have paid out roughly $30 million in dividends. This figure is a sensible estimate for owner earnings and we'll use this as a base going forward.
 
I'll start by estimating next year's owner earnings (Year 1 of 30) to be $30 million. The question then becomes, how fast must owner earnings rise over the following 29 years to justify a purchase price of 31 billion dollars?

Well, the answer is 32% compounded annually. Is this type of growth achievable? We're going to find out.
 
Given our investment return parameters and the $31 billion price tag, Tesla needs to be earning 360 million dollars after-tax in 10 years. Given corporate tax rates, this means it needs to be earning 550 million pre-tax. How many cars does it need to sell in Year 10 to earn $550 million? If the gross margin on their mass-market car is an optimistic 25%, they can sell a car for 40k that they make for 32k, and every car will generate an 8k gross profit.
 
Now I'm going to estimate that SG&A expenses as a percentage of gross profit run at 50%. (The average among BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai is 60%) I'm going to rather optimistically say that SG&A expenses cover all operating expenses. How many mass market cars must be sold to generate a pre-tax profit of $550 million in 10 years? The answer is 137,500 cars. Achievable? Yes.
 
In 20 years, Tesla must be making 5.8 billion after-tax, or $8.9 billion pre-tax. How many cars must be sold that year? 2,225,000. Achievable? It's possible.
 
In 30 years, Tesla must make $94 billion after-tax, or $144.6 billion pre-tax. How many cars must be sold in year 30? 36.15 million. To put this number in perspective, in the entire world, 82.84 million vehicles were sold last year. In 30 years Tesla must occupy 43.6% of today's global automobile market.

Some more math:

500,000 vehicle volume in 2020
$10,000 average profit per vehicle before tax

That's $5 billion profit, before tax.

Give it a 25% tax rate, for $3.75b.

So the stock today trades at 8.3x 2020 earnings.

2020 vehicle volume estimate comes from here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf

So it's cheaper than the index.  Assuming the above math/assumptions is right.

Of course, why stop there?

-Maybe they earn incremental on the battery build out?
-Maybe they earn on charge stations
-Maybe the multiple is higher than 8 by 2020. Surely if they scale up production at that speed it would trade higher than 8. Musk is at the helm!
-Perhaps they partner with Google and the cars drive themselves? Surely that is worth 30 times earnings?

It is a fun guessing game indeed.  I'll cheer them on from the sidelines. It is impossible for me to handicap. I certainly wouldn't be a value short against this without seeing a reversing trend in both price and growth.

The cars are certainly cool.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 26, 2014, 02:28:46 PM
Everybody's talking about Google because they demo their stuff all the time, but I don't think Tesla needs to partner with them for self-driving car. They already have that technology, and Musk said he thought they had the best tech in that area of any other player (including Google). They call it 'autopilot' though, so people think more of autopilots in planes, rather than a 'driverless' car, which sounds scarier.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 02:30:18 PM
Tesla is expecting 27% pre-tax margin on the Model S in Q4 2014.

I wonder what the margin will be when they halve the cost of their battery pack (Gigafactory driving down the cost).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on February 26, 2014, 03:06:46 PM
Quote
Some more math:

500,000 vehicle volume in 2020
$10,000 average profit per vehicle before tax

That's $5 billion profit, before tax.

Give it a 25% tax rate, for $3.75b.

So the stock today trades at 8.3x 2020 earnings.

2020 vehicle volume estimate comes from here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf

So it's cheaper than the index.  Assuming the above math/assumptions is right.

I came back to edit, having read the Gigafactory release, and you beat me to it. Hitting those numbers would be an amazing feat. And that kind of growth makes my numbers irrelevant. I'm hoping they achieve it.

I think you've got a great point about gross margins on Model S increasing with battery innovation. But is a 25% margin on the Gen III realistic?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 03:15:56 PM
I think you've got a great point about gross margins on Model S increasing with battery innovation. But is a 25% margin on the Gen III realistic?


I kept it at $10k profit per vehicle average as just a guess.  The fully loaded Model S might be more than $60k profit.  The Gen III vehicle, far less than that.  So just average around $10k maybe. 

Who knows?  The short sellers don't know.  They "know", what they really don't know.  They are just speculating.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: constructive on February 26, 2014, 03:32:44 PM
500,000 vehicle volume in 2020
$10,000 average profit per vehicle before tax

The car market can't support that many vehicles with $10k average profit. That much profit on 500,000 cars doesn't exist in the current luxury market.

The bullish assumptions are based on complete lack of EV competition, and a serious underestimate of ICE competition, whether they admit it or not.

So the stock today trades at 8.3x 2020 earnings.

If you use a 0% discount rate, of course every stock is cheap.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: constructive on February 26, 2014, 03:47:34 PM
Tesla is expecting 27% pre-tax margin on the Model S in Q4 2014.

I wonder what the margin will be when they halve the cost of their battery pack (Gigafactory driving down the cost).

Tesla's PDF you linked suggests the Gigafactory will reduce battery costs 30%.

Considering the plant isn't designed yet, it's clear that this is a rough guess.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fenris on February 26, 2014, 03:49:18 PM
So the stock today trades at 8.3x 2020 earnings.
Are you sure it's not 4.7x 2030 earnings?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: constructive on February 26, 2014, 03:56:10 PM
In case anyone missed it, the highlight of yesterday's Morgan Stanley report was their prediction that Tesla would create a "utopian society". Is the bearish thesis speculative compared to that?

(http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/530ca0d569bedd37177aab24-788-590/cotd-130.jpg)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on February 26, 2014, 04:00:32 PM
In case anyone missed it, the highlight of yesterday's Morgan Stanley report was their prediction that Tesla would create a "utopian society". Is the bearish thesis speculative compared to that?

Hahahahaha
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 26, 2014, 04:14:19 PM
Would just like to add that TSLA has 123MM shares outstanding on the 10-K (260*123=$32B), so Tesla's market cap is at least $32B

But in my opinion we need to add the 4.81MM from the July converts (whose conversion conditions were recently met : http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/02/26/tesla-warns-early-note-conversions-could-have-material-adverse-effect/ )

And we definitely should add the 22 million of options related to the incentive plan found on page 112 of the 10-K with a weighted average exercise price of $26/share

While only 10MM of these are vested, the remaining vest over the next few years.  I believe the 22MM is not included in the 123MM because TSLA loses money and therefore it is not necessary to use them in order to calculate EPS. If my understanding is incorrect on this, please educate me.

So is it unfair to say that there are actually 123+4.8+22=149MM shares outstanding? This would bring us to an options/convertible adjusted market capitalization of $40B.

So, to me, it appears that TSLA is trading at 20X trailing revenue (positively SaaS like), is in a capital intensive highly competitive industry in which there previously have been no moats created (I'm not saying they can't build one, just saying it hasn't happened), has no book value (though it is working on that with its repetitive capital raises at negative cost) and is currently being pumped by an equity analyst who includes a projection of 60X revenue growth over the next 14 years (which would be better than all tech companies that i looked up when they started from 2B revenue, Apple did 66X in 26 years, think about that).

Yes the shorts are speculating. They are speculating that the future stream of Tesla profits is not worth $40B. I have lost 2-3% of my net worth thus far on this unfortunate speculation, but it's attractiveness grows as the stock becomes all the more parabolic and 1999-esque.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 04:30:15 PM
So the stock today trades at 8.3x 2020 earnings.
Are you sure it's not 4.7x 2030 earnings?

Me?  Hah!

I stay out of this fight (no dog) because I admit that nobody knows what the IV is.

The 500,000 car scenario is perfectly rational.  In which case, the stock is not above IV.  But we don't know.  A 200,000 car scenario is also possible.

Porsche seems to sell quite a few luxury cars.  I think they sold something like 130,000 luxury cars in 2012.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 04:31:58 PM
Tesla is expecting 27% pre-tax margin on the Model S in Q4 2014.

I wonder what the margin will be when they halve the cost of their battery pack (Gigafactory driving down the cost).

Tesla's PDF you linked suggests the Gigafactory will reduce battery costs 30%.

Considering the plant isn't designed yet, it's clear that this is a rough guess.

Oh, no, it's a very precise statement of a fact, several years out  ;)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 04:36:13 PM
The car market can't support that many vehicles with $10k average profit. That much profit on 500,000 cars doesn't exist in the current luxury market.

A car company can't make a $10k profit on a car?

500,000 luxury cars?  Scratches head... Is the Gen III is a luxury car???


If you use a 0% discount rate, of course every stock is cheap.

Good point.  I have one for you too...  if the discount rate is 100%, every stock is expensive.  I hope that helps!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 04:55:40 PM
Porsche is actually up to 200,000 per year:

Porsche AG Chief Executive Officer Matthias Mueller said the high-end automaker will exceed 200,000 in annual deliveries in 2015, three years earlier than first targeted, on demand for the Macan compact sport-utility vehicle going on sale later this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-10/porsche-to-exceed-200-000-in-sales-next-year-on-macan.html?cmpid=yhoo
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: alertmeipp on February 26, 2014, 04:58:16 PM
What stop other manufacturers from push harder on electric? and if that happens, what will happen to the margin and sales
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 05:01:57 PM
What stop other manufacturers from push harder on electric? and if that happens, what will happen to the margin and sales

How much margin does Porsche make on a car?  What's to stop competitors from making ICE's to compete with them?  And if other car makers make ICE's, then what happens to Porsche's margin and sales?


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 05:18:49 PM
It's interesting -- 200,000 cars for a maker that reported 50% gross margins on a technology (InternalCombustionEngine) with lots of competition:

Porsche, which in past years had a gross margin of more than 50 percent on its luxury sports cars, was acquired by Volkswagen AG (VOW) and no longer reports that ratio separately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/musk-says-tesla-s-gross-margin-can-approach-porsche-over-time-.html

Musk Says Tesla Gross Margin to Approach Porsche’s

“On gross margin, I think we can get close to exceeding Porsche’s over time.”


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wisdom on February 26, 2014, 05:36:13 PM
I would add BYD is being underestimated on the TSLA thread. BYD virtually is setting up a global presence - Europe, Sth America, Nth America and Asia.

Plus they have been profitable for years.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 05:39:46 PM
I would add BYD is being underestimated on the TSLA thread. BYD virtually is setting up a global presence - Europe, Sth America, Nth America and Asia.

Plus they have been profitable for years.

Why are they a Tesla competitor?

Should Ferrari be afraid of BYD?  BMW?  GM?

Why Tesla specifically?  Their E6 electric car is downright homely.  Was Heidi Fleiss afraid of street prostitutes doing $50 tricks?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 26, 2014, 06:08:56 PM
btw, they said the gigafactory would reduce battery costs 30% after the first year. I expect they'll keep going down as they ramp up to full production in 2020.

Next gen car will aim to be "mass-market". It's Musk's ultimate goal. It'll probably be at the higher end of the mass-market, but if you take into account the fuel savings, a 35k Tesla will compete with cheaper models and will probably be much more attractive to most people that the average car that sells for 25k-30k if we extrapolate from the Model S' reception so far. Musk said Gen III would be 'in family' with the S but smaller.

Doesn't mean the stock isn't overvalued -- I don't know how to value this company -- but I'm certainly rooting for them to succeed, especially because they're catalyzing the whole industry to follow them and up their game, and so can punch above their weight that way.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 26, 2014, 06:09:56 PM
It's interesting -- 200,000 cars for a maker that reported 50% gross margins on a technology (InternalCombustionEngine) with lots of competition:

Porsche, which in past years had a gross margin of more than 50 percent on its luxury sports cars, was acquired by Volkswagen AG (VOW) and no longer reports that ratio separately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/musk-says-tesla-s-gross-margin-can-approach-porsche-over-time-.html

Musk Says Tesla Gross Margin to Approach Porsche’s

“On gross margin, I think we can get close to exceeding Porsche’s over time.”

How much assets and equity does Porsche employ to build 200k cars? What's its ROE?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 06:15:25 PM
It's interesting -- 200,000 cars for a maker that reported 50% gross margins on a technology (InternalCombustionEngine) with lots of competition:

Porsche, which in past years had a gross margin of more than 50 percent on its luxury sports cars, was acquired by Volkswagen AG (VOW) and no longer reports that ratio separately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/musk-says-tesla-s-gross-margin-can-approach-porsche-over-time-.html

Musk Says Tesla Gross Margin to Approach Porsche’s

“On gross margin, I think we can get close to exceeding Porsche’s over time.”

How much assets and equity does Porsche employ to build 200k cars? What's its ROE?


Are you constructive going to short it?  They are making more than $10k profit on each car, on volume of 200,000 next year.  Seems like you "constructive" believe the market can't support that right?

(I know, VW already bought them).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 06:27:20 PM
VW values Porsche at more than 20 billion euros.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-04/volkswagen-to-purchase-remaining-porsche-stake-for-5-6-billion.html

And with volume of less than 200,000 vehicles at the time.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wisdom on February 26, 2014, 06:29:05 PM
I am not saying TSLA will not do well. But, statements about BYD are uninformed.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 06:30:25 PM
I am not saying TSLA will not do well. But, statements about BYD are uninformed.

The car isn't homely?  That's the only statement made here.

BMW isn't going to lose 7 series sales to BYD.  And nor will Tesla lose a customer to BYD.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: constructive on February 26, 2014, 06:34:21 PM
It's interesting -- 200,000 cars for a maker that reported 50% gross margins on a technology (InternalCombustionEngine) with lots of competition:

Porsche, which in past years had a gross margin of more than 50 percent on its luxury sports cars, was acquired by Volkswagen AG (VOW) and no longer reports that ratio separately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/musk-says-tesla-s-gross-margin-can-approach-porsche-over-time-.html

Musk Says Tesla Gross Margin to Approach Porsche’s

“On gross margin, I think we can get close to exceeding Porsche’s over time.”

How much assets and equity does Porsche employ to build 200k cars? What's its ROE?


Are you constructive going to short it?  They are making more than $10k profit on each car, on volume of 200,000 next year.  Seems like you "constructive" believe the market can't support that right?

150k is a lot different from 500k. And as far as I can tell, Porsche is the only brand selling even 150k cars at $10k profit per car.

I would be much more likely to buy Porsche (now a holding company for VW) than short it. They have proven they can make huge amounts of money selling cars. Tesla hasn't.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 06:38:35 PM
It's interesting -- 200,000 cars for a maker that reported 50% gross margins on a technology (InternalCombustionEngine) with lots of competition:

Porsche, which in past years had a gross margin of more than 50 percent on its luxury sports cars, was acquired by Volkswagen AG (VOW) and no longer reports that ratio separately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-05/musk-says-tesla-s-gross-margin-can-approach-porsche-over-time-.html

Musk Says Tesla Gross Margin to Approach Porsche’s

“On gross margin, I think we can get close to exceeding Porsche’s over time.”

How much assets and equity does Porsche employ to build 200k cars? What's its ROE?


Are you constructive going to short it?  They are making more than $10k profit on each car, on volume of 200,000 next year.  Seems like you "constructive" believe the market can't support that right?

150k is a lot different from 500k. And as far as I can tell, Porsche is the only brand selling even 150k cars at $10k profit per car.

I would be much more likely to buy Porsche (now a holding company for VW) than short it. They have proven they can make huge amounts of money selling cars. Tesla hasn't.

Okay, the math....

Model S and Model X sell for $80k+ on average.  Gross margin to 27% later this year -- much higher when battery prices are halved -- let's say 50% margin at that time.

$40k profit per vehicle, let's say roughly 100,000 vehicles between the X and the S.  And I repeat, $40,000 per vehicle.

Oh, but I said $10,000 per 500,000 on average, right?

So I wonder how I got from $40,000 per vehicle down to just $10,000 on average?  Oh yes, it's because I'm assuming less than $10,000 per vehicle for the mass-produced car.

Aha!  Presto magic -- $40,000 per first 100,000 cars is the same as $10,000 per 400,000 cars.  Then you figure if they can make $2,500 on each mass-produced car then they can bring the average up to $10,000 per 500,000 cars.

BTW:  Porsche's gross margins were 50% -- so it's much more than $10,000 per car for them.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 26, 2014, 07:05:33 PM
Eric, I'm a little confused as to your point here. You said a strategic acquirer valued Porsche (the worlds highest margin big auto manufacturer I believe) at 20 billion euro (below TSLA's current market cap).

A strategic acquirer valued Porsche at 1.5x revenue, 8.3x operating profit. Porsche's total assets are above 20billion euro ( it takes a lot of shit to build cars and shit cost money). They do have a very high roe though so I was wrong there, the rest of the global autos are a 1-2x book and sub 10% roe businesses). A strategic acquirer valued a 70 year old or whatever it is legendary proven brand that makes money today (not in 5 or 10 or 30 years) for less than tesla currently trades.

I understand tesla can increase capacity with free capital (converts and options for everyone, lets issue shares to solve all our problems!!!) so that mitigates the bear case to some extent, but the bottom line is if you think tesla is a car company, its egregiously overvalued, unless it is building some ridiculous moat that will allow it to have roe's infinitely higher than its industry or it can somehow get around the capital intensive nature of the business.

It is a car company (maybe a battery company too, but hey that factory is going to cost $5b and they are sharing their upside with Panasonic. Amazon used option issuance (APIC from option issuance comprises AMZN's growth in book) and payables float to fund its growth and get over the capital intensive nature of distribution. Thus far, tesla has used almost free financing, government subsidies, and equity issuance, but can they do that forever?

I'm not saying I was not a total idiot to short this. I was, I am, and the market hath meted out its punishment. But to me you are proving tesla is overvalued rather than providing evidence to the contrary.


http://www.porsche.com/international/aboutporsche/overview/dataandfacts/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 07:30:51 PM
I'm not saying I was not a total idiot to short this. I was, I am, and the market hath meted out its punishment. But to me you are proving tesla is overvalued rather than providing evidence to the contrary.

How did I prove it was overvalued?  I talked about $10k average per car on 500,000 volume.  And they only need 100,000 in volume to produce the numbers for the first 400,000.  So if they come up 20% short (they never deliver the GenIII at a profit), then so be it.  You get to 80% of my number from Model S and Model X alone if you get them to 50% gross margin on $80,000 average purchase price and 100,000 combined volume.

Their existing plant, which they already own, is capable of 500,000 annual production volume.

So, they can pull this off in their existing facility.

They expect to ship 35,000 of their Model S sedans in 2014.  The Model X is released next year, and they expect greater demand for that car.

Remember, SUVs account for 50% of Porsche sales.  The Model X is going to be in huge demand.

That easily takes their sales to north of 70,000 vehicles.

Then I merely assume they take that number up to 100,000 vehicles by 2020!  That's where $40,000 per vehicle comes from.

Then the rest of the 400,000 vehicles are assumed to earn just $2,500 each.

But look, it's not as if the model lineup ends there:

Boxster (Tesla has no similar offering)
911 (Tesla has no similar offering)
Panamera -- The Model S is the similar offering
Cayenne -- The Model X is the similar offering.


Tesla can easily blow away my 2020 numbers.  They could easily be producing more than 100,000 unit volume on "S" and "X" combined, six years from now.  And they can augment that with a 911 equivalent, and a Boxster equivalent. 

There is just... I was being relatively conservative.  I can't quite understand how it's not hard to see that I'm not putting out unreachable numbers.

And if it seems relatively attainable, then why short it?

This isn't Toys.com.  The model S is outselling the Panamera by a country mile.


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: constructive on February 26, 2014, 07:54:29 PM
Model S and Model X sell for $80k+ on average.  Gross margin to 27% later this year -- much higher when battery prices are halved -- let's say 50% margin at that time.

$40k profit per vehicle, let's say roughly 100,000 vehicles between the X and the S.  And I repeat, $40,000 per vehicle.

BTW:  Porsche's gross margins were 50% -- so it's much more than $10,000 per car for them.


BMW earns 20% gross margins, Audi 20%, Daimler 22%. Porsche doesn't report anymore but generally ran in the low 40s. In the auto manufacturing context, 50% gross margin is a very aggressive assumption.

TSLA's fixed costs will run higher than industry averages until they get to comparable scale. So knock off another $15k - $20k from those gross numbers to get a pretax profit.

Their existing plant, which they already own, is capable of 500,000 annual production volume.

Only after they invest many billions of dollars on equipment. To say it's capable of 500k is a bit ridiculous.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 26, 2014, 07:57:23 PM
BMW earns 20% gross margins, Audi 20%, Daimler 22%. Porsche doesn't report anymore but generally ran in the low 40s. In the auto manufacturing context, 50% gross margin is a very aggressive assumption.

Remember that Tesla makes electric cars, though. A lot fewer moving parts than in a gasoline car (not for nothing that they have enough space for a trunk in the back and in the front). If they can bring the battery's cost way down, that takes care of a big chunk of their production costs.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 08:00:01 PM
BMW earns 20% gross margins, Audi 20%, Daimler 22%. Porsche doesn't report anymore but generally ran in the low 40s. In the auto manufacturing context, 50% gross margin is a very aggressive assumption.

So Tesla margins, without the Gigaplant, already exceed BMW, AUDI, DAIMLER.

You're a smart guy though -- don't you think that's because the Model S is selling on average for $80k+ and Audi/Daimler/BMW don't average those kind of numbers?  I mean, I know you know that already.  I don't have to tell you that of course.  So why the fuss?

50% gross margin is very aggressive, and 100,000 volume by 2020 is very conservative.  Call it 150,000 volume and 33.5% gross margin.  Much more realistic on both counts.  They are hitting 27% later this year -- with battery cost optimization, they easily get to 33.5% and higher.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 08:25:13 PM
Only after they invest many billions of dollars on equipment. To say it's capable of 500k is a bit ridiculous.

I've been on the factory tour -- I've seen the vast, darkened corner of the building.  The building is indeed capable.

They will need more robots.  You know, what are we talking about here relative to market cap?  5% dilution?  10% dilution?  How much will robots cost to finish the job?  That's not a short thesis.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 08:41:32 PM
(not for nothing that they have enough space for a trunk in the back and in the front).

It doubles as a safety feature -- enhanced crumple zone in the front.

Those big internal combustion engines are hazardous to your health in a frontal impact crash.  They just don't crumple.  Even worse, I hate it when the entire car explodes like in Paul Walker's case.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on February 26, 2014, 08:57:14 PM
I was originally short and was fortunate to close at a small profit. The problem now is the market is literally giving them so much money in the way of equity value that they can literally make the miracles happen.

A year ago, Tesla wasn't worth $3 billion and there is no way they could afford to build a massive batter factory to reduce the production costs of their cars. Today, the market values them at $32 billion allowing them to spend $3-5 billion in cash (along with whatever their partner puts up) to flood the world with batteries and reduce the cost of 50% of their inputs into a car. The market believes they can execute well, so it provides them an equity value that then makes it possible to execute well which then supports the share price.

It's a virtuous cycle (or a vicious one if you're short). I'm just going to watch from the sidelines from here on out.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 26, 2014, 09:04:21 PM
I was originally short and was fortunate to close at a small profit. The problem now is the market is literally giving them so much money in the way of equity value that they can literally make the miracles happen.

A year ago, Tesla wasn't worth $3 billion and there is no way they could afford to build a massive batter factory to reduce the production costs of their cars. Today, the market values them at $32 billion allowing them to spend $3-5 billion in cash (along with whatever their partner puts up) to flood the world with batteries and reduce the cost of 50% of their inputs into a car. The market believes they can execute well, so it provides them an equity value that then makes it possible to execute well which then supports the share price.

It's a virtuous cycle (or a vicious one if you're short). I'm just going to watch from the sidelines from here on out.

It's reflexivity.

Plus, making a car isn't like making a reusable rocket... oh wait, he's doing that too.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on February 26, 2014, 11:42:16 PM
It's reflexivity.

Plus, making a car isn't like making a reusable rocket... oh wait, he's doing that too.

That's where it's tough to bet against Musk. He's trailblazing on multiple fronts and showing impressive success.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wisdom on February 27, 2014, 12:56:26 AM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelinemaynard/2014/02/26/elon-musks-risky-5-billion-plan-to-control-teslas-fate/?partner=yahootix

It is smart to control battery production as it has been the biggest bottle neck in the industry.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 27, 2014, 06:25:07 AM
Only after they invest many billions of dollars on equipment. To say it's capable of 500k is a bit ridiculous.

I've been on the factory tour -- I've seen the vast, darkened corner of the building.  The building is indeed capable.

They will need more robots.  You know, what are we talking about here relative to market cap?  5% dilution?  10% dilution?  How much will robots cost to finish the job?  That's not a short thesis.

This is basically our disagreement in a nutshell. The short thesis is that Tesla is indeed a car company and a capital intensive and competitive one. The short thesis is that Tesla's long term earnings power will be constrained by the industry in which it operates. This is not toys.com, it is a very real, awesome company doing wonderful things for America (using its practically negative cost of capital and other people's money but nevertheless doing big things). But it is not microsoft either. It does not have 0 growth capex requirements, it is not creating a monopoly (it can be argued they have a monopoly on luxury EV's but surely a competitor with 10X the R+D budget can come up with something in 5 years. Batteries are a heavy industrial good also.

This looks like capital intensity to me
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089205_tesla-to-add-production-capacity-for-35000-more-electric-cars
http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2013/11/05/tesla-up-9-as-production-hinders-growth/

So if we accepts Tesla is a car company and an asset intensive one, then we can evaluate what is implied by its current market cap of $40B (after options adjustment and 5/2013 convert note conversion, do you disagree with this adjustment?).

 The way I view it is there is a price/book, an expected long term ROE, and a required rate of return.  Let's ignore all liabilities (because deducting liabilities is for people without vision). So TSLA has 2.4B of Assets as of 12/2013. Let's quadruple that to 10B assuming Tesla plays the sell ridiculous converts and equity at ridiculous prices game to get to 10B of assets immediately. So TSLA would be trading at 4X "book" (i use quotes as there are no liabilities in the land of Musk and no corresponding increase in market cap or shares).

 With a 0% payout ratio and  7% required rate of return and convergence to book value in 20 years, a 4X book company must make a 14.25% ROE in order to be "fairly valued". So TSLA is not overvalued if you give them $7.5B of free capital, deduct all liabilities and they can make an industry destroying ROE (admittedly not as high as Porsche's) for 20 consecutive years. What component of ROE will TSLA destroy its industry in (Asset Turnover, Net Margin, or Leverage?). Is 7% too high a discount rate? Or is 14% too low an ROE (ROA in this case actually)?

Have you looked at Morgan Stanley's 15 year DCF that they use to justify Tesla's price? I'm reluctant to post a sell side report but i'll throw in some highlights. It goes without saying that the model ignores any notion of mean reversion, of economic cyclicality, of competition, of capital constraints, and all the other real world stuff that those who do not get paid to sit behind a computer and make promotional, downright Panglossian projections have to deal with.

Can you provide me with an example of a company that has grown volume by 27X and revenue by 18X in 13 years? What industry was said company in? How much capital was involved? What was the company's ROE and did it make money while it grew? In 1990 MSFT did 1.1B of revenue. In 2004 the  did about 33X that. So does TSLA have 50% of the growth story of Microsoft in 1990? Does it share its economics?

I can't tell if you are serious or trolling when you throw out your 500K/year and profit number and ignore the nature of the business, what it will cost to get there and that that is about 20X what they did last year and 15X what they'll do next year on Musk's projections. I can't tell if you are serious when you use Porsche as a comp when Porsche is (using MS's numbers) 7-8 years ahead of Tesla in terms of production, capital, profitiability etc. completely proven in concept, has been around for 70 years or whatever and was being taken over by a long term strategic partner (strategics pay the mos, right?). So if TSLA kills it for 8 years it will be worth 20 billion euro?? $28B?? It trades for 1.4X that today. In terms of valuation (not that one should short on valuation, i've learned that here) isn't there an enormous margin of safety in saying that TSLA is worth less than $40B today?



Unit volume: We expect Tesla’s unit volumes to
grow at a CAGR 29% from 2013 through 2027. By
2015, we forecast unit volumes of almost 65k,
expanding to over 1mm by 2027.

Revenues: We expect auto revenue to grow at a
25% CAGR through 2027. As Tesla introduces more
mainstream models such as the Model S, Model X,
and eventually the Gen 3, we forecast average selling
price (ASP including powertrain units) will drop from
$93,000 in 2013 to roughly $60,000 by 2027.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 07:01:08 AM
Only after they invest many billions of dollars on equipment. To say it's capable of 500k is a bit ridiculous.

I've been on the factory tour -- I've seen the vast, darkened corner of the building.  The building is indeed capable.

They will need more robots.  You know, what are we talking about here relative to market cap?  5% dilution?  10% dilution?  How much will robots cost to finish the job?  That's not a short thesis.

This is basically our disagreement in a nutshell. The short thesis is that Tesla is indeed a car company and a capital intensive and competitive one. The short thesis is that Tesla's long term earnings power will be constrained by the industry in which it operates. This is not toys.com, it is a very real, awesome company doing wonderful things for America (using its practically negative cost of capital and other people's money but nevertheless doing big things). But it is not microsoft either. It does not have 0 growth capex requirements, it is not creating a monopoly (it can be argued they have a monopoly on luxury EV's but surely a competitor with 10X the R+D budget can come up with something in 5 years. Batteries are a heavy industrial good also.

This looks like capital intensity to me
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089205_tesla-to-add-production-capacity-for-35000-more-electric-cars
http://www.forbes.com/sites/hannahelliott/2013/11/05/tesla-up-9-as-production-hinders-growth/

So if we accepts Tesla is a car company and an asset intensive one, then we can evaluate what is implied by its current market cap of $40B (after options adjustment and 5/2013 convert note conversion, do you disagree with this adjustment?).

 The way I view it is there is a price/book, an expected long term ROE, and a required rate of return.  Let's ignore all liabilities (because deducting liabilities is for people without vision). So TSLA has 2.4B of Assets as of 12/2013. Let's quadruple that to 10B assuming Tesla plays the sell ridiculous converts and equity at ridiculous prices game to get to 10B of assets immediately. So TSLA would be trading at 4X "book" (i use quotes as there are no liabilities in the land of Musk and no corresponding increase in market cap or shares).

 With a 0% payout ratio and  7% required rate of return and convergence to book value in 20 years, a 4X book company must make a 14.25% ROE in order to be "fairly valued". So TSLA is not overvalued if you give them $7.5B of free capital, deduct all liabilities and they can make an industry destroying ROE (admittedly not as high as Porsche's) for 20 consecutive years. What component of ROE will TSLA destroy its industry in (Asset Turnover, Net Margin, or Leverage?). Is 7% too high a discount rate? Or is 14% too low an ROE (ROA in this case actually)?

Have you looked at Morgan Stanley's 15 year DCF that they use to justify Tesla's price? I'm reluctant to post a sell side report but i'll throw in some highlights. It goes without saying that the model ignores any notion of mean reversion, of economic cyclicality, of competition, of capital constraints, and all the other real world stuff that those who do not get paid to sit behind a computer and make promotional, downright Panglossian projections have to deal with.

Can you provide me with an example of a company that has grown volume by 27X and revenue by 18X in 13 years? What industry was said company in? How much capital was involved? What was the company's ROE and did it make money while it grew? In 1990 MSFT did 1.1B of revenue. In 2004 the  did about 33X that. So does TSLA have 50% of the growth story of Microsoft in 1990? Does it share its economics?

I can't tell if you are serious or trolling when you throw out your 500K/year and profit number and ignore the nature of the business, what it will cost to get there and that that is about 20X what they did last year and 15X what they'll do next year on Musk's projections. I can't tell if you are serious when you use Porsche as a comp when Porsche is (using MS's numbers) 7-8 years ahead of Tesla in terms of production, capital, profitiability etc. completely proven in concept, has been around for 70 years or whatever and was being taken over by a long term strategic partner (strategics pay the mos, right?). So if TSLA kills it for 8 years it will be worth 20 billion euro?? $28B?? It trades for 1.4X that today. In terms of valuation (not that one should short on valuation, i've learned that here) isn't there an enormous margin of safety in saying that TSLA is worth less than $40B today?



Unit volume: We expect Tesla’s unit volumes to
grow at a CAGR 29% from 2013 through 2027. By
2015, we forecast unit volumes of almost 65k,
expanding to over 1mm by 2027.

Revenues: We expect auto revenue to grow at a
25% CAGR through 2027. As Tesla introduces more
mainstream models such as the Model S, Model X,
and eventually the Gen 3, we forecast average selling
price (ASP including powertrain units) will drop from
$93,000 in 2013 to roughly $60,000 by 2027.


I think you are getting blinded by the growth projection and just saying "that's not possible, that's not possible, that's not possible".  You reference Microsoft even.  To me, I just see a window into the psychology of what's driving you to short it.  So, instead, I'm trying to talk you through what looks reasonable to me from an execution standpoint.

They're going to sell 35,000 this year, yet that's a lot of growth versus just two years ago.  Then it will soon double again with the "X" sales.  They will soon be at 100,000 in annual vehicle sales.

When I talk about 500,000 in annual sales, 80% of the profit margin is coming from those first 100,000 -- 150,000 vehicles.  That's the high-end price tag "S" and "X" cars.  These two cars will not be the last of the luxury cars in their lineup.  There will be new models.  The Roadster for example is not in production. 

You are getting hung up on the cost of scaling out to 500,000, but that's only 20% of the picture.  For now, just focus on getting to 150,000 for the Model S and Model X (and throw in new sporty "Roadster" models to help achieve this figure). 

I am not trolling.  I am trying to help people understand that Tesla is a difficult short.  You need to really cross your fingers.

I think I got someone's attention when they looked at Porsche's margins and sales volume -- it was likely completely new information given the prior comments about how luxury car market can't support those kinds of numbers on average profit margin per vehicle.  I don't think the articles on shorting Tesla like to dwell on it much because it begins to validate a good portion of the share price. 

The new mantra I'm now hearing is "but it's already worth more than 20 billion Euros" -- so now I've got your attention.  20 billion Euros is real money.  That's what a car company can be worth on VW's books with less than 200,000 vehicles in sales.  I believe that was in 2012 when the company was selling less than 150,000 vehicles.

Meanwhile, it's a long road to wait.  The stock can be optimistically valued for years and years as the company continues to grow and blow away expectations.  Remember what the expectations were two years ago? 


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 27, 2014, 07:29:48 AM
How is the Microsoft reference irrelevant? I tried to find the most successful growth story of all time and show its performance from its early stage? Should I use another example? Or am i just completely idiotic and focusing on precedent way too much? is 1/2 Microsoft 1990-2004 at all a reasonable expectation? Is Tesla's business model at all comparable?

I do not think I need to cross my fingers to doubt the numbers put forth by the sell side as they are completely unprecedented and would represent a kind of positive black swan. From a mark to market perspective, one absolutely has to cross his fingers and i've learned a thing or two about the psychology and sizing of positions when shorting these types of things. By no means am i shouting from the mountaintop that I'm a genius for shorting TSLA. I am far from that. But I am shouting from a mountain top that what is priced in is somewhere between optimistic and utopian.

Even Morgan Stanley acknowledges that if TSLA is just a niche car manufacturer it is worth far less than its current price. By no means do i think the scenario you put forth is completely impossible. But I just don't get how you (who has compounded capital at some ungodly rate) can just give Musk and TSLA the benefit of the doubt like you are doing. Will the market seriously allow Musk to not make money and suck up capital for 8 years while they get there? will  money always be free?   


Base Case $320
Successful commercialization of Model S, X and Gen 3 with combined volume
surpassing 1.1 million units by 2028. A thriving company with OP margins peaking at
16.4%, normalizing at 15%. A successful Model S and X with combined volume nearly 150k
units by 2020. Gen 3 volume reaching 220k units by 2020 and 775k by 2028. 8% OP margin
reached in 2014, peaking at 16.4% by 2019, normalize at 15.3%. Our valuation includes $15
for regulatory credits (a $1.9bn EV).

BearCase$100
Tesla limited to niche premium brand status. A thriving, but small, company with OP
margins normalizing at 13%. A successful Model S and X with combined volume over 70k
units by 2020. Gen 3 volume reaching 150k units by 2020 and 330k by 2028. Valuation
excludes any further benefits from the sale of ZEV credits.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 08:11:22 AM
folks anyone have stats on auto sales broken down by price? how many vehicle are sold over 80k, 50k, 35k etc.?

i have not  been able to find it, so far

hy
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 27, 2014, 08:34:07 AM
But I just don't get how you (who has compounded capital at some ungodly rate) can just give Musk and TSLA the benefit of the doubt like you are doing. Will the market seriously allow Musk to not make money and suck up capital for 8 years while they get there? will  money always be free?   

Eric can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe he has compounded capital by shorting wildly popular and successful companies with excellent and unique products, founded and run by some of the most successful CEOs on Earth.   I'm pretty sure he uses a different formula.

Take a look at Amazon.com.  These types of companies can be overvalued for decades.  And Amazon.com has never really been profitable.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 27, 2014, 09:01:20 AM
But I just don't get how you (who has compounded capital at some ungodly rate) can just give Musk and TSLA the benefit of the doubt like you are doing. Will the market seriously allow Musk to not make money and suck up capital for 8 years while they get there? will  money always be free?   

Eric can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe he has compounded capital by shorting wildly popular and successful companies with excellent and unique products, founded and run by some of the most successful CEOs on Earth.   I'm pretty sure he uses a different formula.

Take a look at Amazon.com.  These types of companies can be overvalued for decades.  And Amazon.com has never really been profitable.

How Eric has done that is not particularly relevant to the questions I've asked about TSLA's business model. I've thrown a bunch of shit against the wall that is ready to be assailed (I've proposed a long term ROA of 14%, I've given them free capital, I've used a discount rate of 7%). But no one has answered those questions or assailed my assumptions. They've pointed out the already well known flaws of shorting TSLA. I've shown the assumptions being used by the sell side and asked how reasonable they are.

 I've asked for some company precedents of the revenue and volume growth that underlies those models. But no one has countered my assmptions. I've asked what Tesla's ROE is going to be and how it will overcome the constraints of its industry. I've asked a bunch of what i consider to be legitimate questions, but they aren't answered. Instead, I just get that I'm an idiot for shorting it. I already knew that.

Perhaps we can just agree to disagree. I just get frustrated because i want people to challenge the numerical assumptions and answer my questions and all i get is "musk is a visionary" "don't short on valuation" "you couldv'e said that 200% ago"

So please kill my assumptions. Show me why TSLA is not a car company.

If you shorted Amazon at 36 in november of 1998, you would've seen it go to 90, collapse and then had to wait till 2003 before it broke to 36 again. Ample opportunity would've been provided to cover at prices below 36. If you top ticked it at 105 in 1999 you coulve waited until 2009 (10 years) before it broke that again. So even the best of growth stories can be overpriced, collapse, and remain in the doldrums for many years. Is TSLA Amazon at 36 or is it at 105? That I don't know, but i'm inclined to say closer to 105.

 Amazon funded its growth with options and payables float (they never made profits to fund their growth). Tesla appears to be funding its with equity and convertible debt, very cheap capital, but not free and it does dilute eventually.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on February 27, 2014, 09:11:47 AM
On an unrelated note to the above....Don't you guys think that things like the Gigafactory is going to hurt their margins? They're going from being a finished luxury goods supplier to manufacturing components and selling them to other people...it sounds noble, but I don't see it as helping margins.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on February 27, 2014, 09:17:01 AM
Driving by my local "autoplex" which is 7 large car dealerships situated within a mile or so stretch, it occurs to me that almost the entire cost of those buildings, inventory, staff, repair bays, profits, property taxes, utilities, city taxes etc are added to the cost of ownership of a gas vehicle.  Then there is the cost of gas itself.  As the price of all these things increases over time, the Tesla business model becomes more profitable as the cost of ownership gap widens.  There is also a large Honda plant nearby which has a hundred trucks a day bringing in parts and assemblies from all over the place to assemble those traditional cars.  The outsourcing is an efficiency within an inefficient model.

I don't know what Tesla is worth.  It's a moving target depending on projections and assumptions.  I do know that what has been accomplished to date is remarkable and would not have been accomplished using a mental model of innovation by analogy (oh look the other guys are putting fins on their fenders so we better put out a model with fins on the fenders).

The first principles approach used by Musk is what has led to his success and will likely continue to do so.  It's the right way to think.  His accomplishments are considerable.

Big auto is advertising bluetooth and connectivity for the masses and small incremental improvements in fuel economy.

Tesla's don't require gas and can be driven across America on electricity provided for free ( I know it's paid for up front in the price of the car.  How much would a gasoline car cost if the useful lifetime fuel supply was built into the price?).

These are radically divergent trajectories.

At least Musk is part of the solution, not part of the problem, and if that is not worth some sort of premium, then I don't know what is.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on February 27, 2014, 09:20:01 AM

So please kill my assumptions. Show me why TSLA is not a car company.


Define "car"
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: shalab on February 27, 2014, 09:21:30 AM
How is the Microsoft reference irrelevant? I tried to find the most successful growth story of all time and show its performance from its early stage? Should I use another example? Or am i just completely idiotic and focusing on precedent way too much? is 1/2 Microsoft 1990-2004 at all a reasonable expectation? Is Tesla's business model at all comparable?

Tesla is changing the world in a very significant way - you are seeing major disruption in the auto/utility industry which is better for the environment....

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2014, 09:38:13 AM
At least Musk is part of the solution, not part of the problem, and if that is not worth some sort of premium, then I don't know what is.

I think you're spot-on with the premium thing.

It's been a pet-peeve of mine for years: Auto journalists in their reviews will talk about how cool fancy wheels, leather interiors, sunroofs, big engines, etc, are. They'll never try to economically justify these things. And that makes sense: They don't save you money, but you pay extra because you like these things and what they do.

But as soon as these same auto reviewers get inside a Prius or a Volt, they compare them to the closest gasoline car they can find and complain about how these cars will "never pay for themselves!" or will only produce small savings or whatever.

Well, there are a lot of people out there who want to drive electric cars or hybrids because they like the concept, it's a good thing to them, it provides value in itself over any monetary benefits.

So when comparing a Tesla to a similar gasoline car, not only should you shave off many thousands off the price because of the fuel savings, but it probably also makes sense to add more for what people are ready to pay extra to be in an electric car (many psychological reasons for that: to some it's not burning oil, to others it's the cutting edge tech, to others it's an added layer of exclusivity, or a mix of these, etc).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: enoch01 on February 27, 2014, 09:49:43 AM
At least Musk is part of the solution, not part of the problem, and if that is not worth some sort of premium, then I don't know what is.

I think you're spot-on with the premium thing.

It's been a pet-peeve of mine for years: Auto journalists in their reviews will talk about how cool fancy wheels, leather interiors, sunroofs, big engines, etc, are. They'll never try to economically justify these things. And that makes sense: They don't save you money, but you pay extra because you like these things and what they do.

But as soon as these same auto reviewers get inside a Prius or a Volt, they compare them to the closest gasoline car they can find and complain about how these cars will "never pay for themselves!" or will only produce small savings or whatever.

Well, there are a lot of people out there who want to drive electric cars or hybrids because they like the concept, it's a good thing to them, it provides value in itself over any monetary benefits.

So when comparing a Tesla to a similar gasoline car, not only should you shave off many thousands off the price because of the fuel savings, but it probably also makes sense to add more for what people are ready to pay extra to be in an electric car (many psychological reasons for that: to some it's not burning oil, to others it's the cutting edge tech, to others it's an added layer of exclusivity, or a mix of these, etc).

Great points, I hadn't thought of it in this way.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on February 27, 2014, 09:50:06 AM
Eric was attempting to challenge your numerical assumptions and walk you through how TSLA could get there, but it seems you are getting offended.  Start with his first point of getting to 100,000-150,000 high end, high margin cars by 2020.

1) Do you believe they will hit 35,000 in sales numbers this year?

-Deliveries began in June 2012.
-They delivered about 22,5000 last year. Is 35,000 unlikely for 2014?

2) Do you believe they will begin to deliver the model X in 2015?
-Could the Model X sales ramp look largely like Model S Sales? If not, why not?  Will they get to 35,000 deliveries in 2 years for model X for 2017?

3) What could model S sales look like at that point by 2017? Presumably model S sales growth won't grind to a halt at 35,000 in 2014, then go flat. Will they?
What is your total number of deliveries around this time frame?


4) 3 years later, around 2020, do you or do you not agree that they could get to 100,000-150,000 vehicles in the high end market?

5) Do you think it is or isn't reasonable to achieve Porsche margins on those vehcles?  Remember TSLA has cut out a ton of waste in the distribution chain, is working on cutting out waste in the production chain, manufactures simpler vehicles in a brand new, state of the art factory.

Start with those questions.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on February 27, 2014, 11:16:24 AM
My Honda CRV averages 13.5 l/100km.

Fuel costs $1.20 per litre, car has a useful life of 200,000 km, and say the increase in fuel costs over time offset the PV of prepayment, I could have prepayed all my fuel use for only an additional $32,400.00 up front (oil changes and complex mechanical systems related to fossil fuels repairs not included).   

How much are those Model X's going to cost?

Now do the same calculations on the luxury sedans that Model S competes with and it becomes even more compelling.

Wait until we get a track record published of reliability/repair cost numbers compared to gas burners.  Most conventional dealerships make the bulk of their money off this sort of thing!



 

 
 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 11:32:48 AM
But I just don't get how you (who has compounded capital at some ungodly rate) can just give Musk and TSLA the benefit of the doubt like you are doing. Will the market seriously allow Musk to not make money and suck up capital for 8 years while they get there? will  money always be free?   

Eric can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe he has compounded capital by shorting wildly popular and successful companies with excellent and unique products, founded and run by some of the most successful CEOs on Earth.   I'm pretty sure he uses a different formula.

Take a look at Amazon.com.  These types of companies can be overvalued for decades.  And Amazon.com has never really been profitable.

Exactly. 

Let's make a gentleman's bet though.  I speculate that two years from now, they are looking forward at 100,000 unit vehicle volume.  So, I expect them to sell 100,000+ vehicles in 2016.

Now, that's more than 50% of Porsche's current volume, and somebody carefully pointed out that Porsche is a 70 year old company. 

So let's see how it works out :-)  I will donate $100 to Sanjeev's honey pot (the board's "donations" link) if I'm wrong.

This will be Model S and Model X sales combined.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 11:37:02 AM
How much are those Model X's going to cost?

Same as the Model S.  I should know, I reserved one (paid the $40,000 deposit for a "Signature" model).  I'm #1,239 in line -- I will get it sooner than that though, as some people will cancel.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: constructive on February 27, 2014, 11:39:58 AM
Exactly. 

Let's make a gentleman's bet though.  I speculate that two years from now, they are looking forward at 100,000 unit vehicle volume.  So, I expect them to sell 100,000+ vehicles in 2016.

Now, that's more than 50% of Porsche's current volume, and somebody carefully pointed out that Porsche is a 70 year old company. 

So let's see how it works out :-)  I will donate $100 to Sanjeev's honey pot (the board's "donations" link) if I'm wrong.

This will be Model S and Model X sales combined.

I'll take that bet. Although I'd rather donate to Sanjeev's Crohn's and Colitis Fund. Good luck :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 11:44:50 AM
My high degree of confidence interval is more close to 80,000-90,000 cars sold.  However 100,000 is a stretch goal that I believe they will hit.

The Model X Performance is a dual-motor, AWD minivan/SUV that goes 0-60 in under 5.  They are expecting to sell more "X" than "S"s, and they should be in the 40,000-50,000 volume range on the "S"s in two years.

So, it will be a tight race. 

My chief risk is supplies -- I don't know if they will have the battery volume to do 100,000 vehicles that early.  I believe the demand is there though.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 27, 2014, 11:51:14 AM
I will take the 100K bet in 2016 for $100. Sanjeev's honey pot will win no matter what as i feel that i owe lots of money to this board for listening to my lonely ranting self.

Morgan Stanley (who i see as bull poster child) is at 86K for 2016, 150K for 2017.

We don't differ all that much on the possibility of the growth as much as the likelihood and the nature of TSLA's business and the constraints in which it operates. I understand they've taken out a lot of cost and this and that (dealers don't earn high margins on sale of cars though, so not really that much; they make it all on parts, servicing, and financing).

 I just don't think they have overcome the fact that its a very competitive, capital intensive business. I am not so much short TSLA's innovation as I am long that of the well capitalized multinationals that actually make money. Perhaps they all just sit there and let TSLA make porsche esque ROE and perhaps TSLA gets loads of free capital to expand. Perhaps not.

I still don't understand why it's worth $40B. But I guess I have no vision.

Nothing more to say here.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 11:57:32 AM
but it probably also makes sense to add more for what people are ready to pay extra to be in an electric car (many psychological reasons for that: to some it's not burning oil, to others it's the cutting edge tech, to others it's an added layer of exclusivity, or a mix of these, etc).

Yeah, the environmental thing is nice.  But that's not really the draw for me.

Aside from the instant 911-beating acceleration...  (and yes, even the "X" minivan will do 0-60 in under 5)

The challenge is how are they going to get me to switch from electric back to ICE -- I think they can't.  I don't like to pump gas, or change oil, or take it to a service station.  I don't have those hassles in my daily life anymore.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 12:00:19 PM
Perhaps they all just sit there and let TSLA make porsche esque ROE

They have experience with that.

They already all sit there and let Porsche make Porsche-esque ROE.

Don't they?

Are they suddenly going to change their spots?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 27, 2014, 12:22:10 PM
Perhaps they all just sit there and let TSLA make porsche esque ROE

They have experience with that.

They already all sit there and let Porsche make Porsche-esque ROE.

Don't they?

Are they suddenly going to change their spots?

Well, VW didn't just sit there and do nothing about Porsche.

I agree with you though that the large car companies are unlikely to be able to out maneuver Tesla.   This is like the smart phone market only with 15 Blackberries and one Apple.  By the time they believe that they are in trouble it will be difficult to do anything about it.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is the largest automaker in the world in 30 years and if #2 and #3 don't yet exist.  There is no reason to believe that a company making ICE powered vehicles for many decades or even a century will also dominate with electric vehicles filled with technology.   I have a 2006 Toyota Sequoia Limited that was purchased for $58K (by the person before me, he left his loan documentation in the glove box) which is $67,297 (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=58000&year1=2006&year2=2014) today and it doesn't even have a way to connect a portable device (such as an mp3 player or phone) to the stereo.  Not even a simple AUX jack in a $67,000 vehicle.  It has a rear seat entertainment system with like a 4" screen with an awful washed out picture.  The navigation system is so god awful to use that I end up using my portable Garmin rather than the 7" screen built into the dash.   I could go on and on, and this is from the largest car company in the world.  The old companies take years to get even simple technology into their vehicles.  They will never move as fast as Tesla has.  They won't abandon ICE power nor even lead-acid batteries for a long time to come.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jschembs on February 27, 2014, 12:29:28 PM
I have no dog in this fight, but here's an interesting thought experiment: if TSLA dropped to $50 six months from now, would we look at the current price as where the stock should return to or a signal of a bubble?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 27, 2014, 12:36:00 PM
I have no dog in this fight, but here's an interesting thought experiment: if TSLA dropped to $50 six months from now, would we look at the current price as where the stock should return to or a signal of a bubble?

I don't know how to value this company so I will likely never own it.  I don't know what to think about the current price, so if it drops $50 I still won't know what to think.  This is a company with enormous potential, but a lot of that is already baked into the price.  It was $50 cheaper recently and I still didn't buy it.   Hell, it was $200 cheaper recently and I didn't buy it.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this $100 cheaper at some point in the next year, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see it $100 higher.  This isn't trading on any type of valuation of the company's recent earnings nor expectations of the company's near term earnings, but on long term speculation.  I can speculate with the best of them, I just don't put any real money behind it.  As far as shorting goes... when I see a freight-train coming, even if I don't plan to jump on board, I know enough to get out of the way.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 12:45:12 PM
a little puzzle, you can't really compare 2006 toyota sequioa to  2013 tsla s, totally different car from different decade serveing different market. you should be comparing to 2013 lexus LS or something.

not sure where you get current car company are so behind in technology? really?

ev vehicle is not exclusive to tsla. many auto company built or will be building them. from the small chevy spark to the more expensive bmw's.

tsla s is definitely a good car, but to dismiss the competition this early is a bit premature.

hy



Perhaps they all just sit there and let TSLA make porsche esque ROE

They have experience with that.

They already all sit there and let Porsche make Porsche-esque ROE.

Don't they?

Are they suddenly going to change their spots?

Well, VW didn't just sit there and do nothing about Porsche.

I agree with you though that the large car companies are unlikely to be able to out maneuver Tesla.   This is like the smart phone market only with 15 Blackberries and one Apple.  By the time they believe that they are in trouble it will be difficult to do anything about it.  I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is the largest automaker in the world in 30 years and if #2 and #3 don't yet exist.  There is no reason to believe that a company making ICE powered vehicles for many decades or even a century will also dominate with electric vehicles filled with technology.   I have a 2006 Toyota Sequoia Limited that was purchased for $58K (by the person before me, he left his loan documentation in the glove box) which is $67,297 (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=58000&year1=2006&year2=2014) today and it doesn't even have a way to connect a portable device (such as an mp3 player or phone) to the stereo.  Not even a simple AUX jack in a $67,000 vehicle.  It has a rear seat entertainment system with like a 4" screen with an awful washed out picture.  The navigation system is so god awful to use that I end up using my portable Garmin rather than the 7" screen built into the dash.   I could go on and on, and this is from the largest car company in the world.  The old companies take years to get even simple technology into their vehicles.  They will never move as fast as Tesla has.  They won't abandon ICE power nor even lead-acid batteries for a long time to come.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Avyalake on February 27, 2014, 12:49:59 PM
After reading through this thread the long thesis looks less speculative (just kidding :)) than the short thesis. This is funny because even on an ordinarily valued company it is not hard to make a smart-sounding short thesis :D and I was on the skeptic short camp with no stakes in this fight. Now I am afraid for other car companies.

Also it is clear that a Tesla, even though its just a car, it's not just a car in the sense we are used to it. Let us list the advantages / potential paradigm changing elements to this starting with:
1) No need to fill up gas. 2) Less need for servicing. 3) Fewer parts and hence a possible reduction in need for recalls. 4) Simpler design due to electric motor and the possible advantages of endless configurability with future designs. 5) Ability to perform fast upgrades due to SW eating a lot of HW (the Andreesen model). Check out their front panel controls. I mean where are they and I wonder if the other car companies won't be forced to do this soon enough. 6) Possibility of riding down cost curves that could collapse exponentially with time and technology espec. battery prices and capacities. 7) Possible shortening of the typical car design cycle. 8 ) Business models enabled with no dealerships passing on that extra 6%. This should be welcome by many. 9) A life style stickiness.

Anything else?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 12:54:58 PM
i guess tsla taking over the world is a forgone conclusion. even the most optimistic projection they will be selling 100k so car by 2016 or something

what will the 60mil+ cars sold worldwide be coming from?

hy


EDIT: next 30 years really? what was 1984 like (first mac just came out, internet most people have no idea what that is, web browser have not been invented yet).  wow i can't believe the optimism.

After reading through this thread the long thesis looks less speculative (just kidding :)) than the short thesis. This is funny because even on an ordinarily valued company it is not hard to make a smart-sounding short thesis :D and I was on the skeptic short camp with no stakes in this fight. Now I am afraid for other car companies.

Also it is clear that a Tesla, even though its just a car, it's not just a car in the sense we are used to it. Let us list the advantages / potential paradigm changing elements to this starting with:
1) No need to fill up gas. 2) Less need for servicing. 3) Fewer parts and hence a possible reduction in need for recalls. 4) Simpler design due to electric motor and the possible advantages of endless configurability with future designs. 5) Ability to perform fast upgrades due to SW eating a lot of HW (the Andreesen model). Check out their front panel controls. I mean where are they and I wonder if the other car companies won't be forced to do this soon enough. 6) Possibility of riding down cost curves that could collapse exponentially with time and technology espec. battery prices and capacities. 7) Possible shortening of the typical car design cycle. 8) Business models enabled with no dealerships passing on that extra 6%. This should be welcome by many. 9) A life style stickiness.

Anything else?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2014, 01:04:12 PM
There is no reason to believe that a company making ICE powered vehicles for many decades or even a century will also dominate with electric vehicles filled with technology.

There are certainly pros and cons to having a legacy ICE business.

It's a very overused word, but electric cars might turn out to be a disruptive technology because all the legacy players have such high investments in the old tech which is profitable, and at first EV certainly looked inferior in all ways so most didn't bother and missed the boat, and because to properly sell an EV, you need to showcase its advantages over ICEs.

Do GM and Ford dealers really want to talk down their other products when they try to sell an EV? Do they want to push vehicles that require almost none of the high-margin maintenance that they make their living on? (Tesla has said that they will provide all maintenance at cost, making no money on it). That's why Tesla feels it needs to have its own stores and not a traditional dealers network, and that's why dealers associations are lobbying to block Tesla in many states.

Traditional car makers have invested so much in steel-stamping equipment and ICE research and supply chain, transmission tech, etc... To truly make competitive EVs they need to go into aluminum and/or carbon fiber and relearn all that propulsion stuff (motors, power electronics, all the software that controls everything, 1-speed transmissions, etc). Tesla is years ahead on that stuff, and the ICE business is still very profitable so there's no real urgency to make a big change (kind of like how Kodak saw digital coming and even invented part of it, but it couldn't truly make the switch and dump its very profitable business for a less profitable one, even if they knew it was probably the future).

Even Carlos Goshn at Renault-Nissan, probably the person who made the biggest bet on EVs aside from Musk, didn't really go all the way. Why didn't he make an electric Altima or G37 rather than something more like a Versa? It's almost like he didn't want to compete against his other main products too much.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Avyalake on February 27, 2014, 01:12:06 PM
i guess tsla taking over the world is a forgone conclusion. even the most optimistic projection they will be selling 100k so car by 2016 or something

what will the 60mil+ cars sold worldwide be coming from?

hy

After reading through this thread the long thesis looks less speculative (just kidding :)) than the short thesis. This is funny because even on an ordinarily valued company it is not hard to make a smart-sounding short thesis :D and I was on the skeptic short camp with no stakes in this fight. Now I am afraid for other car companies.

Also it is clear that a Tesla, even though its just a car, it's not just a car in the sense we are used to it. Let us list the advantages / potential paradigm changing elements to this starting with:
1) No need to fill up gas. 2) Less need for servicing. 3) Fewer parts and hence a possible reduction in need for recalls. 4) Simpler design due to electric motor and the possible advantages of endless configurability with future designs. 5) Ability to perform fast upgrades due to SW eating a lot of HW (the Andreesen model). Check out their front panel controls. I mean where are they and I wonder if the other car companies won't be forced to do this soon enough. 6) Possibility of riding down cost curves that could collapse exponentially with time and technology espec. battery prices and capacities. 7) Possible shortening of the typical car design cycle. 8) Business models enabled with no dealerships passing on that extra 6%. This should be welcome by many. 9) A life style stickiness.

Anything else?


As I said I have no stakes and nothing is certain. But is it not possible that the game is changing and others are forced to play a game that Tesla is pioneering?

If that is possible, then why should we assume that the current competitors will be naturally good at playing this new game, even assuming they can even play (Check Liberty's comments above).

Also consider the smartphone market. How hard is it to make good smartphones? They have operating leverage issues / BBRY write-downs are all about "capital-intensiveness" and purchase commitments. There were many competitors to Apple. Yet how hard or easy is it to compete against iPhone?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 01:18:19 PM
- sure its possible, but anything is possible, so what is the point?
- sure EV might be the future, but i think all major automaker are aware of this and have been working on it for years.
- i don't think the smartphone is the best analogy (but that is another discussion). iphone have the network effect amongst other etc., replace cycle its a lot faster, its a $500 item vs $50k.



i guess tsla taking over the world is a forgone conclusion. even the most optimistic projection they will be selling 100k so car by 2016 or something

what will the 60mil+ cars sold worldwide be coming from?

hy

After reading through this thread the long thesis looks less speculative (just kidding :)) than the short thesis. This is funny because even on an ordinarily valued company it is not hard to make a smart-sounding short thesis :D and I was on the skeptic short camp with no stakes in this fight. Now I am afraid for other car companies.

Also it is clear that a Tesla, even though its just a car, it's not just a car in the sense we are used to it. Let us list the advantages / potential paradigm changing elements to this starting with:
1) No need to fill up gas. 2) Less need for servicing. 3) Fewer parts and hence a possible reduction in need for recalls. 4) Simpler design due to electric motor and the possible advantages of endless configurability with future designs. 5) Ability to perform fast upgrades due to SW eating a lot of HW (the Andreesen model). Check out their front panel controls. I mean where are they and I wonder if the other car companies won't be forced to do this soon enough. 6) Possibility of riding down cost curves that could collapse exponentially with time and technology espec. battery prices and capacities. 7) Possible shortening of the typical car design cycle. 8) Business models enabled with no dealerships passing on that extra 6%. This should be welcome by many. 9) A life style stickiness.

Anything else?


As I said I have no stakes and nothing is certain. But is it not possible that the game is changing and others are forced to play a game that Tesla is pioneering?

If that is possible, then why should we assume that the current competitors will be naturally good at playing this new game, even assuming they can even play (Check Liberty's comments above).

Also consider the smartphone market. How hard is it to make good smartphones? They have operating leverage issues / BBRY write-downs are all about "capital-intensiveness" and purchase commitments. There were many competitors to Apple. Yet how hard or easy is it to compete against iPhone?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2014, 01:20:27 PM
I don't think it's been posted here (sorry if it has), but right before the Gigafactory announcement, Consumer Reports published it's Top Picks for 2014:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2014/04/top-picks-2014/index.htm

The Model S is "Best Overall Car", and that's after it received the highest mark ever earlier this year in a review (99/100) and a later consumer satisfaction survey of Tesla owners also gave it 99/100 (these almost make it seem like they have a policy against perfect scores...).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: value-is-what-you-get on February 27, 2014, 01:22:44 PM

Anything else?

All aluminum body won't rust so it supports high resale.

Highest safety score ever recorded has nothing to do with electric car but everything to do with company's integrity.

How can all these automotive manufacturers with hundreds of years of combined experience be outdone in safety by a startup?  What do they think of this at Volvo?

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sys on February 27, 2014, 01:24:58 PM
this has been a very interesting thread the last few days.  i'm glad i'm not forced to take either a long or short position in tsla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 01:30:37 PM
the new ford truck coming out later this year or is it early next year will be aluminum body as  well.




Anything else?

All aluminum body won't rust so it supports high resale.

Highest safety score ever recorded has nothing to do with electric car but everything to do with company's integrity.

How can all these automotive manufacturers with hundreds of years of combined experience be outdone in safety by a startup?  What do they think of this at Volvo?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 01:56:42 PM
i guess tsla taking over the world is a forgone conclusion. even the most optimistic projection they will be selling 100k so car by 2016 or something

Keeping in mind that the most-optimistic projection is for just two $80,000+ luxury models -- the "S" and the "X".

Just wait until the Gen III comes out -- the "E" (for "everyone").

Once we have "S" "E" "X" there will be Tesla cars everywhere!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on February 27, 2014, 01:57:38 PM
I think highest safety has more to do with a fact that there is no engine, which saves a lot of weight so giving it a heavier build quality would raise safety......just a guess though.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2014, 01:59:36 PM
I think highest safety has more to do with a fact that there is no engine, which saves a lot of weight so giving it a heavier build quality would raise safety......just a guess though.

There seems to be lots of factors, the front crumple zone being one, the high mass of the battery at a very low center of gravity being another one. But they did extremely well in tests that didn't have anything to do with the engine (roof strenght, side impacts, rollover).

It just seems like an extremely well engineered car all around.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 02:01:03 PM
I think highest safety has more to do with a fact that there is no engine, which saves a lot of weight so giving it a heavier build quality would raise safety......just a guess though.


Much LARGER crumple zone.

Engines don't crumple!

However, that's just frontal impact.  They also aced the rest of the crash tests, such as the pole side-impact test.

And the heavy battery keeps it very bottom-heavy -- so it resists rolling over.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on February 27, 2014, 02:02:05 PM
i guess tsla taking over the world is a forgone conclusion. even the most optimistic projection they will be selling 100k so car by 2016 or something

Keeping in mind that the most-optimistic projection is for just two $80,000+ luxury models -- the "S" and the "X".

Just wait until the Gen III comes out -- the "E" (for "everyone").

Once we have "S" "E" "X" there will be Tesla cars everywhere!

That's hilarious.

I have a feeling this thread and your bet will eventually come to the attention of Mr. Musk. Given that you are an owner of both cars, I'm sure he'll do his best to blow past those numbers, influencing what is in his control.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 27, 2014, 02:18:57 PM
- sure its possible, but anything is possible, so what is the point?
- sure EV might be the future, but i think all major automaker are aware of this and have been working on it for years.
- i don't think the smartphone is the best analogy (but that is another discussion). iphone have the network effect amongst other etc., replace cycle its a lot faster, its a $500 item vs $50k.

If the all the major automakers are aware of this and have been working on it for years, how is it that a start up beat them to market with a long range electric vehicle with good performance?  Not by a month mind you, but it's been 6 years since Tesla started selling the Roadster, almost 2 years for the Model S, and the large automakers still are nowhere to be found and a competing car isn't even on the horizon at any of them. Meanwhile Tesla will be releasing the Model X soon as well.  When its 3rd generation $35K car comes on the market where will the major automakers be?   My guess is that they will be just as absent.  It takes them 5-7 years to design and build a new ICE vehicle, something which they have decades (centuries in some cases) of experience.  My guess is that Tesla has this market largely to itself for at least the next 6-8 years.

There is some network effect with the iphone, but you can communicate with people who do not have one, so that isn't the only reason for its success.  I wasn't trying to compare a vehicle to a phone, I was making an analogy with how RIM management stuck its head in the sand for years and didn't want to disrupt their current business in anyway by changing, with how the large auto manufacturers have been and will continue to react to Tesla.

Jim Balsillie (on the iPhone in 2007): "It's kind of one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers ... But in terms of a sort of a sea-change for BlackBerry, I would think that's overstating it."

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on February 27, 2014, 02:28:33 PM
I think highest safety has more to do with a fact that there is no engine, which saves a lot of weight so giving it a heavier build quality would raise safety......just a guess though.


Much LARGER crumple zone.

Engines don't crumple!

However, that's just frontal impact.  They also aced the rest of the crash tests, such as the pole side-impact test.

And the heavy battery keeps it very bottom-heavy -- so it resists rolling over.

Certainly, but what I meant was that the weight savings from the engine being gone could be used to beef up the construction of the rest of the frame. The car weighs about as much as a 7 series while being smaller.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 02:40:15 PM
I think highest safety has more to do with a fact that there is no engine, which saves a lot of weight so giving it a heavier build quality would raise safety......just a guess though.


Much LARGER crumple zone.

Engines don't crumple!

However, that's just frontal impact.  They also aced the rest of the crash tests, such as the pole side-impact test.

And the heavy battery keeps it very bottom-heavy -- so it resists rolling over.

Certainly, but what I meant was that the weight savings from the engine being gone could be used to beef up the construction of the rest of the frame. The car weighs about as much as a 7 series while being smaller.

I think the battery is 700 lbs.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 27, 2014, 02:45:37 PM
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/27/investing/tesla-stock/

I guess there is one guy who agrees

"We believe it is important for investors to remember that Tesla is an auto manufacturer, first and foremost, which is an inherently capital intensive business," Lovallo wrote in a note to clients Thursday. "In our view, the Gigafactory investment will translate to even more capital intensity and add further pressure to margins and returns."

So we've got $320 Morgan Stanley (who is actually bull case: $500, base case: $320, bear case $100) on one end talking about autonomous utopian penetration and 27% volume CAGR for 14 years, and then we've got $75 Bank of America saying "hey guys, they still kind of sort of look like an auto manufacturer"

the two illustrate the extremes quite nicely.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 05:54:21 PM
Interesting comment from the latest conference call transcript Q&A:


Elon Musk - Co-Founder, CEO and Product Architect: So, I think (indiscernible) we want to price the Gen 3 vehicle at around the $35,000 price point. When you consider the savings from gasoline, today when we consider gasoline to be at that point, I mean it's effectively like buying a gasoline car in U.S. for maybe $28,000 or a gasoline car in Europe for maybe $22,000. So that makes it pretty competitive. Then, as we – over time, we're going to get better and better at our lease offerings with lower interest rates and just better access to capital with a track record and more visibility into residual values. I mean I think our residual value is going to be very good. But to get loads of cost capital you have to come prove that. I think long-term, just like with Solar City, I see leasing as being overwhelmingly the path to go for electric cars, because it just brings the cost of transportation – it makes it immediate, because you have the lease and you look at your – the amount you are paying per month, you might plus you might pay for electricity versus your gasoline car lease plus gasoline cost, and I think gasoline cars also really inherently require more maintenance, there is that as well. With a lease, you don't have to worry about like capturing savings over some period of time or worry about the battery life or anything like that. You just experience the savings immediately. So, until I see leasing as being the main way that people buy our car, and then it's going to seem like a very compelling value proposition.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 06:06:26 PM
- GM had the ev1, sure they kill it, the point is, its no like EV are not on auto makers radar
- they have been working on it for years, volt don't just appear out all of a sudden (as well as other cars like it, the underlying technology have similarities), sure you can argue they are slow, or they didn't think it will be as successful, that i would agree.
- strange there are already ev cars on the market from other auto makers, high end luxury, no, that is true. but there are many EV, nissan leaf, chevy spark, prius electric etc.
- i never said the only reason for iphone's success is network effect. i am comparing the dynamics of iphone to an tsla which i believe was brought up in previous posts.
- sure i agree RIMM had its head in its sand, but others did not, i do believe andriod is the most popular smartphone os

i am not arguing tsla is not a good car or tsla have not been innovative. its one thing to say its a good car, but its a entirely another thing to say they will dominate and be the #1 car maker in 30 years. what was 1984 like compare to today. i think its a bit far fetch to extrapolate what they have done so far to dominate in 30 years. i can't even comfortably say that about the iphone/apple in 30 years.

hy

- sure its possible, but anything is possible, so what is the point?
- sure EV might be the future, but i think all major automaker are aware of this and have been working on it for years.
- i don't think the smartphone is the best analogy (but that is another discussion). iphone have the network effect amongst other etc., replace cycle its a lot faster, its a $500 item vs $50k.

If the all the major automakers are aware of this and have been working on it for years, how is it that a start up beat them to market with a long range electric vehicle with good performance?  Not by a month mind you, but it's been 6 years since Tesla started selling the Roadster, almost 2 years for the Model S, and the large automakers still are nowhere to be found and a competing car isn't even on the horizon at any of them. Meanwhile Tesla will be releasing the Model X soon as well.  When its 3rd generation $35K car comes on the market where will the major automakers be?   My guess is that they will be just as absent.  It takes them 5-7 years to design and build a new ICE vehicle, something which they have decades (centuries in some cases) of experience.  My guess is that Tesla has this market largely to itself for at least the next 6-8 years.

There is some network effect with the iphone, but you can communicate with people who do not have one, so that isn't the only reason for its success.  I wasn't trying to compare a vehicle to a phone, I was making an analogy with how RIM management stuck its head in the sand for years and didn't want to disrupt their current business in anyway by changing, with how the large auto manufacturers have been and will continue to react to Tesla.

Jim Balsillie (on the iPhone in 2007): "It's kind of one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers ... But in terms of a sort of a sea-change for BlackBerry, I would think that's overstating it."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2014, 06:13:26 PM
EV1 only existed because Californian regulations forced it (same with the Toyota RAV4 EV). GM killed it as soon as the regulation changed (this is documented in many places, including the documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? -- there's a sequel, Revenge of the Electric Car that has a lot of what Musk went through at Tesla during 2008-2009). Musk actually says in interview that this was one of his reasons for getting into EVs; when he saw the EV1 he was really happy and thought they would keep getting better (EV2, EV3, EV4), but when GM killed it (and people held a candle-lit vigil for a GM product), he knew he'd have to do it himself.

As for the Volt, Bob Lutz, the father of the Volt at GM (he was vice-chairman, now working at Via Motors iirc), said in interview that the reason why GM made the volt was because they saw what Tesla was doing.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 06:51:15 PM
I got the following text from a friend yesterday:


My friend just leased a Chevy Spark EV. He already has a Tesla S and Volt lease. Here's what he said:

I dropped off my daughter at a practice Saturday morning. Had 1 1/2 hour to kill. Went to Chevy dealer, and left with it.
I have a GM card, they did a top off bonus to $3,000 (I had around $1,800 in points, GM card is 5% back). Deal I got for Spark EV 2LT:

$0 drive off
12k miles per year
36 months lease
$152 per month plus tax for 35 months
GM also will rebate $500 for a Bosch L2 EVSE (charger), making charger basically free

So my cost for the Spark EV is
$165 (with tax) x 35 months = $5,775
California will send me a $2,500 check and a carpool sticker for being a treehugger in about a month.
So my cost for 3 years is $3,275 plus I get a free L2 charger.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 27, 2014, 06:59:28 PM
Today's news:

Tesla raises $2bn in convertible bond sale

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2f2387a0-a00a-11e3-9c65-00144feab7de.html#axzz2ua7oZhIq

Tesla sold $800m in five-year notes and $1.2bn in seven-year notes as part of the deal on Thursday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The five-year notes will carry a coupon payment of 25 basis points and the seven-year notes will pay 125 basis points. Both bonds have an equity conversion premium of 42.5 per cent.
The company had originally sought to raise $1.6bn, but the deal was increased due to heavy demand from investors, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 07:02:25 PM
wow, nice

looks like a good deal for the consumer,  but for GM? hmmm.

hy

I got the following text from a friend yesterday:


My friend just leased a Chevy Spark EV. He already has a Tesla S and Volt lease. Here's what he said:

I dropped off my daughter at a practice Saturday morning. Had 1 1/2 hour to kill. Went to Chevy dealer, and left with it.
I have a GM card, they did a top off bonus to $3,000 (I had around $1,800 in points, GM card is 5% back). Deal I got for Spark EV 2LT:

$0 drive off
12k miles per year
36 months lease
$152 per month plus tax for 35 months
GM also will rebate $500 for a Bosch L2 EVSE (charger), making charger basically free

So my cost for the Spark EV is
$165 (with tax) x 35 months = $5,775
California will send me a $2,500 check and a carpool sticker for being a treehugger in about a month.
So my cost for 3 years is $3,275 plus I get a free L2 charger.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 07:07:49 PM
http://gm-volt.com/2014/02/25/volt-fleet-to-cross-400-million-ev-miles-today/

some interesting info

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on February 27, 2014, 07:33:37 PM
fyi, consumer report didn't have a "best overall car" in the past (i check for 2011,2012,2013 none) why all of sudden adding this category for 2014?

also i thought consumer report don't usually recommend a car until it has some sort of maintenance history?

chevy impala got a score of 95/100 just give you some perspective (the top 3 score ever were tesla model s 99/100, bmw 1 series coupe 97/100, chevy imapla 95/100)

hy

I don't think it's been posted here (sorry if it has), but right before the Gigafactory announcement, Consumer Reports published it's Top Picks for 2014:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2014/04/top-picks-2014/index.htm

The Model S is "Best Overall Car", and that's after it received the highest mark ever earlier this year in a review (99/100) and a later consumer satisfaction survey of Tesla owners also gave it 99/100 (these almost make it seem like they have a policy against perfect scores...).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 27, 2014, 07:58:23 PM
Yeah, they waited a while before giving the "recommended" seal:

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2013/10/tesla-model-s-recommended-reliablity/index.htm
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2014, 07:09:07 AM
The CC Q&A has a little bit of talk about the challenges of 100,000 vehicle production.

The expectation is to be producing 1,000 Model S units per week by the end of this year.  But then the "X" also comes into play around that time:


Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs: If I can, just one more just on how you are going to configure your manufacturing sort of going into the end of this year? Does your current line have flexibility or will it have flexibility to build Model Ss and Xs, going through the same line or are you going to have to build a parallel one? Ultimately, I think the original expectations you put out was 40 to 50 global units of demand for S. So clearly, that would probably tax at some point the setup you have now but just kind of wondering when that additional capacity would go in and how it might be configured?

Elon Musk - Co-Founder, CEO and Product Architect: We have a game plan on that front because, obviously, if we're doing 40 to 50 in Model S volume, if Model X turns out to have a comparable demand and we're on the order of 100,000 units then clearly our current production line is not going to do the trick. So we're going to need something else and we are looking at reconfiguring a part of the factory, maybe using one of the moving production lines that's still there from the (indiscernible) days. But I feel pretty confident. I mean it's not going to be – the production of vehicles is not going to be constraint. That's not a limiting factor. No doubt, I think we have got some sort of huge[man] capital, training thing that's going to need to happen. I think we've got a handle on how to get there.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 28, 2014, 07:40:34 AM
Just to clarify (since maybe i do a terrible job of explaining my view), I don't think your growth targets are impossible. I just think they will have to reinvest all money back into the business to grow and that no one will stand still for 15 or 30 years to allow them to make outsized returns on reinvestvestment and high ROE's year after year after year. I don't think it's impossible to grow. I think it's impossible to grow into the current $40B valuation because of the capital intensity and generally low ROA's and ROE's in the industry; so far i see no evidence for TSLA to overcome that, even if it gets to Porsche profitability, Porsce still utilizes $20B of assets to make its cars.

 I also think projecting 14 years of uninterrupted profitable 27% volume growth is pretty insane for a cyclical business. I think TSLA is cyclical, which also gets back to my BV, ROE, Expected return discussion. A 15 year DCF gives no nod to cyclicality. I also looked through MS's model more last night and it looks pretty insane in that it models $200MM of capex for 2014. TSLA's 10-K projects $650-$860MM. The MS model only takes about 3 years to get to $900MM capex, so there are very big differences between the model and reality and the PT uses the model.  unfortunately, I have no access to this or any analyst but i'd love for him to walk me through it.

So I may lose your bet Eric, and be right on the valuation. I may be wrong. The future is obviously unknowable.

What I can't seem to reconcile is you are a spectacular investor. I would assume a spectacular investor is good at analyzing business models, capital intensity, focuses on owner earnings, acknowledges cyclicality, and uncertainty. But you seem certain that TSLA is a terrible short and don't seem to admit that it is egregiously overvalued. So I take it seriously when you say that, given your well documented record. But so far, I haven't seen you or anyone articulate how TSLA is a good capital lite business or how TSLA is a capital intensive business that wil earn very high ROE's for the next 20-30 years.

Capital intensity itself is not a bad thing, look at railroads! But railroads enjoy high ROE's (UNP=20%, trades 4X book because higher payout ratio reduces long term returns as they don't have unlimited reinvestent opportunities) and are regulated monopolies. So to earn a high ROE  almost indefinitely (which is priced in), TSLA must do something much much better than potential competitors. Mathematically they must either lever more, have more sales / assets, or earn a higher margin.

ROE = Asset Turnover * Margin * Leverage

I see porsche margins as kind of the ceiling (maybe this is a mistake) but TSLA's own management says they target mid teens EBIT margins (which would be similar to porsche's) and leverage is not a sustainable advantage (though tSLA certainly has cheap capital for now), so the real juice in my humble opinion needs to come from asset turnover. There needs to be something unique about TSLA's manufacturing of its unique cars that allow it to drive more Sales / assets than any other car company has, can or will do.

I hope that clarifies my points. I don't mean to be combative and i got a little frustrated yesterday and I desperately want to be challenged on this and leverage the massive amounts of brainpower on this board. But I want to be challenged on the innards of Tesla's business.



John Lovallo - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

First question would be, Deepak, just on kind of your outlook for free cash flow in 2014 and maybe in 2015, given the requisite investment that's going to go into the business. How are you guys kind of thinking about that?
Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer

Yes. Well, I think in 2014, we certainly expect to generate significant cash flow from operations. And our CapEx then, which then feeds into free cash flow, will depend quite a bit on how we continue to expand and what opportunities we see globally throughout the rest of the year. So it's a bit early for me to call and give you clear guidance for certainly 2015 and potentially all of 2014, but we said we see this as really a great year for growth as we look forward.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 28, 2014, 08:05:11 AM
And just to clarify Porsche does put up a great ROE using nice leverage, asset turnover and margin; I just think that if TSLA gets there and won't compound far into the future and TSLA is currently valued at a greater price and far greater metrics when it is 8 years behind.

http://books.google.com/books?id=DPK43Sku2PsC&pg=PA207&lpg=PA207&dq=porsche+ebit+margin&source=bl&ots=YYbkdPIeTe&sig=-IHW6Ffg08lrCv84-Sjso9T2FLQ&hl=en&sa=X&ei=RrIQU5_jAabZ0QHNxoHABg&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=porsche%20ebit%20margin&f=false
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2014, 08:10:42 AM
What I can't seem to reconcile is you are a spectacular investor. I would assume a spectacular investor is good at analyzing business models, capital intensity, focuses on owner earnings, acknowledges cyclicality, and uncertainty. But you seem certain that TSLA is a terrible short and don't seem to admit that it is egregiously overvalued. So I take it seriously when you say that, given your well documented record. But so far, I haven't seen you or anyone articulate how TSLA is a good capital lite business or how TSLA is a capital intensive business that wil earn very high ROE's for the next 20-30 years.

Well, I honestly am very bad at analyzing a business.

I look for investments that don't rely on price movement of the stock to make money.

Whereas you've found a short in TSLA that relies precisely on price movement.  What dividends are you going to ever get paid shorting it while the company slowly increases IV?  I mean, they just got $2b of really, really cheap capital -- believe it or not, the very existence of the sky high stock produces value in it's own right.

So like when you buy BAC last year for $11, or $7 the year before, or $5 the year before that.  And it's making $2 cash earnings this year.  And it makes those earnings even if they are a very mediocre bank.  That's the way to make some serious money IMO.

But if you think TSLA is 2x overvalued, it's like spitting into the wind.  You might as well try to go into a mosque and tell them that there is no proof of God.  Their bible is exactly what I described to you -- it's easy to come up with a reasonable narrative that gets to 100,000-150,000 very high margin vehicles.  And Musk is one hell of a visionary leader.  It's like Steve Jobs on steroids.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on February 28, 2014, 08:17:17 AM
What I can't seem to reconcile is you are a spectacular investor. I would assume a spectacular investor is good at analyzing business models, capital intensity, focuses on owner earnings, acknowledges cyclicality, and uncertainty. But you seem certain that TSLA is a terrible short and don't seem to admit that it is egregiously overvalued. So I take it seriously when you say that, given your well documented record. But so far, I haven't seen you or anyone articulate how TSLA is a good capital lite business or how TSLA is a capital intensive business that wil earn very high ROE's for the next 20-30 years.

Well, I honestly am very bad at analyzing a business.

I look for investments that don't rely on price movement of the stock to make money.

Whereas you've found a short in TSLA that relies precisely on price movement.  What dividends are you going to ever get paid shorting it while the company slowly increases IV?  I mean, they just got $2b of really, really cheap capital -- believe it or not, the very existence of the sky high stock produces value in it's own right.

So like when you buy BAC last year for $11, or $7 the year before, or $5 the year before that.  And it's making $2 cash earnings this year.  And it makes those earnings even if they are a very mediocre bank.  That's the way to make some serious money IMO.

But if you think TSLA is 2x overvalued, it's like spitting into the wind.  You might as well try to go into a mosque and tell them that there is no proof of God.  Their bible is exactly what I described to you -- it's easy to come up with a reasonable narrative that gets to 100,000-150,000 very high margin vehicles.  And Musk is one hell of a visionary leader.  It's like Steve Jobs on steroids.

This is some of the best advice I have ever read. Thanks Eric. Really relates well to Warren's latest piece.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/24/warren-buffett-berkshire-letter/

Quote
•You don't need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren't, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well.

•If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating. There is nothing improper about that. I know, however, that I am unable to speculate successfully, and I am skeptical of those who claim sustained success at doing so.


Quote
•Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering. If you don't feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset's future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility. But omniscience isn't necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake.

I would note that this piece of advice really only provides margin of safety on the downside, as Eric noted with BAC.

Does lack of cash flow provide margin of safety on a short? I don't believe so.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 28, 2014, 08:29:40 AM
So it appears we are arguing about the merits of shorting in general rather than whether or not TSLA is overvalued or the nature of TSLA's business.  You don't get paid a dividend, but you do get cash. Borrow is 50 bps at the moment, so no real issue there. A forced buy in is highly unlikely in a liquid $30B (on current shares stock). No one forces me to cover.

I have made much more money in my short investing "career" buying cheap businesses and assets than i have shorting (though i did get one 3X on puts of an obvious Chinese fraud in college lol). However, short selling is a skill i'd like to develop. A 5% position in TSLA  at $175 (and an already closed put position prior to that) was clearly a poor choice and the conventional wisdom has proven true thus far wrt shorting growth/valuation.

So I don't disagree with any of your points about shorting as speculation, and about your chosen style, but I guess we were talking past each other and arguing about different things.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: nikhil25 on February 28, 2014, 08:40:53 AM
Not sure if this has been posted before: http://gigaom.com/2014/02/27/the-sheer-size-of-teslas-massive-battery-factory-could-be-a-game-changer-in-many-ways/

Also, this thread has been a great read so far and it's exciting to see how Musk and Tesla continue pushing the envelope!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 28, 2014, 09:20:06 AM
So it appears we are arguing about the merits of shorting in general rather than whether or not TSLA is overvalued or the nature of TSLA's business.  You don't get paid a dividend, but you do get cash. Borrow is 50 bps at the moment, so no real issue there. A forced buy in is highly unlikely in a liquid $30B (on current shares stock). No one forces me to cover.

I have made much more money in my short investing "career" buying cheap businesses and assets than i have shorting (though i did get one 3X on puts of an obvious Chinese fraud in college lol). However, short selling is a skill i'd like to develop. A 5% position in TSLA  at $175 (and an already closed put position prior to that) was clearly a poor choice and the conventional wisdom has proven true thus far wrt shorting growth/valuation.

So I don't disagree with any of your points about shorting as speculation, and about your chosen style, but I guess we were talking past each other and arguing about different things.

I wish you luck, I have nothing against shorting stocks, but shorting great companies with excellent management and popular products on valuation alone seems like an awfully dangerous thing to do.  In the end you may be right, but there are easier, and certainly safer, ways to make money.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2014, 09:33:58 AM
So it appears we are arguing about the merits of shorting in general rather than whether or not TSLA is overvalued or the nature of TSLA's business. 


Well, really it comes down to a lot more than that.

What's a value trap?  Traditionally, I've thought of it as a stock where you think you are getting a big discount to your perceived (insert narrative) IV estimate.  But then the earnings decline, the business declines, or the growth never materializes.  This happens with "too hard pile" stuff.

Ideally, you want to go long a stock that has stable (relative to your initial estimates) or growing earnings.  You can be wrong on IV and yet still make money if you are patient enough.  This is where it's wise to stick with "wonderful businesses" when you place bets on IV estimates.

Okay, that was "value trap" discussion for long investors.

How about for short investors?

Okay, here you want to find businesses with poor management, declining earnings, decaying business, competitors trampling them, going obsolete etc...  That way, you are more than likely not in a "value trap".  The short sale of the stock will eventually pay off for you.  Okay, so I think with TSLA I don't find those qualities.

I had considered shorting it by writing out-of-the-money calls -- but I went through this thought process... I went over the "how to justify this price" narrative... and I'm a veteran of the DOT.COM bubble days.  I remember a coworker who shorted YHOO in 1999.  I mean, I've seen this movie before.  I saw how it eventually ended too, of course -- but that's why I'm saying this is no EToys.com.  Elon Musk and his team put together the best car ever made on their first try and people are questioning whether they can grow at high rates -- well, how about 1,000 cars per week by the end of this year with only one model in the lineup. 

Can't you at least find a short target that has lousy management?  That can't execute?  That isn't a cult/religion?  That doesn't have Elon Musk?  I mean, there are 50,000+ stocks to choose from, and you pick this one.





Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2014, 09:44:33 AM
So to me, the short-selling version of the value trap is one where the stock stays expensive long enough for the fundamentals to catch up to the price where you shorted it (adjusted for your cost of borrowing the stock).  This is why I put forth the argument that today's price could be justified by 2020 (and that valuation is further adjusted for time value of money -- so you actually earn a satisfactory return, as opportunity cost is real).

And risk factors to the short sellers are:
excellent management
industry beating product
fanatical following
"new era" potential  ("new era" thinking keeps stocks inflated)

You practically tick off all the boxes with TSLA (the reasons for leaving it alone).

It's too dicey to go long, too dicey to go short.

Too hard pile in both directions, IMO.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 28, 2014, 09:49:55 AM
Elon Musk and his team put together the best car ever made on their first try

And his other company just docked with the space station, is testing re-usable rockets, and plans to send people to Mars.  I have to give thepupil some credit for having brass balls that I don't have. If I was short anything Musk was involved in, at any price, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 28, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
Understand all your points about shorting on valuation and growth and visionary companies. And for some context i own 5X as much berkshire, 2X as much CWH and ACAS and SHLD and BAM, etc (ya i own way too much Finance Insurance and Real Estate). They are far more likely to make me a lot of money than my TSLA short.

And yes I am short some of the types of businesses you describe with unethical crappy management in commodity industries trading at ridiculous prices. I'll throw out my two favorites and most recent additions of HCI and UVE, Florida Hurricane insurers that have benefited enormously from temporary favorable conditions that the market is extrapolating into infinity with lots of related party transactions auditor and CFO turnover and regulatory issues to boot.

The best shorts are obviously awful businesses at ridiculous prices with low borrow costs and catalysts. But I've also made money shorting "good" profitable fast growing  businesses in the past, namely specialty grocers (TFM and SFM), which have traded at absolutely insane valuations over the past few years and it was very easy to see that their growth would slow or faith in such growth would diminish and the prices would correct as they had no real moats and the market was valuing every 100 store chain like they'd get to 600 stores. But I digress.

Appreciate your thoughts.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Uccmal on February 28, 2014, 09:53:15 AM
So it appears we are arguing about the merits of shorting in general rather than whether or not TSLA is overvalued or the nature of TSLA's business.  You don't get paid a dividend, but you do get cash. Borrow is 50 bps at the moment, so no real issue there. A forced buy in is highly unlikely in a liquid $30B (on current shares stock). No one forces me to cover.

I have made much more money in my short investing "career" buying cheap businesses and assets than i have shorting (though i did get one 3X on puts of an obvious Chinese fraud in college lol). However, short selling is a skill i'd like to develop. A 5% position in TSLA  at $175 (and an already closed put position prior to that) was clearly a poor choice and the conventional wisdom has proven true thus far wrt shorting growth/valuation.

So I don't disagree with any of your points about shorting as speculation, and about your chosen style, but I guess we were talking past each other and arguing about different things.

I wish you luck, I have nothing against shorting stocks, but shorting great companies with excellent management and popular products on valuation alone seems like an awfully dangerous thing to do.  In the end you may be right, but there are easier, and certainly safer, ways to make money.


I have really enjoyed this thread.  The contributions and debate is top notch.  Putting value on Tesla seems next to impossible to me. 

I agree that it seems like a crappy short.  My experience short selling is very limited.  But if you observe successful short sellers they succeed only a handful of ways:
1) When they uncover and publicize a fraud - Muddy Waters, Jim Chanos
2) When a company turns sour.  Successful short sellers catch a falling knife on the way DOWN, not on the way up.  A good example is Nortel once it had passed its peak value and was on the way down.  RIMM was another example.  Google and Facebook are not good examples. 
3) Extreme market events - FFH shorted the Nasdaq in 1998.  CDS in 2008.  Predicting these is not easy as we have seen more recently.

I just dont see the short with Tesla.  They are going to make money.  They have advantages with their youth, and lack of bureaucracy.  It will take the larger companies a long time to catch them.  They have perhaps the most capable industrialist operating today at the helm.  If they grow into their valuation is 25 b a reasonable number, or 20 b.  I like my investments to have far more upside than 50%, unless they pay a big dividend.  40 b to 20 b over an unknown timeframe, with reverse dividends (borrow cost) as well does not meet my criteria. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on February 28, 2014, 10:03:28 AM
Understand all your points about shorting on valuation and growth and visionary companies. And for some context i own 5X as much berkshire, 2X as much CWH and ACAS and SHLD and BAM, etc (ya i own way too much Finance Insurance and Real Estate). They are far more likely to make me a lot of money than my TSLA short.

And yes I am short some of the types of businesses you describe with unethical crappy management in commodity industries trading at ridiculous prices. I'll throw out my two favorites and most recent additions of HCI and UVE, Florida Hurricane insurers that have benefited enormously from temporary favorable conditions that the market is extrapolating into infinity with lots of related party transactions auditor and CFO turnover and regulatory issues to boot.

The best shorts are obviously awful businesses at ridiculous prices with low borrow costs and catalysts. But I've also made money shorting "good" profitable fast growing  businesses in the past, namely specialty grocers (TFM and SFM), which have traded at absolutely insane valuations over the past few years and it was very easy to see that their growth would slow or faith in such growth would diminish and the prices would correct as they had no real moats and the market was valuing every 100 store chain like they'd get to 600 stores. But I digress.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Interesting you state:

Quote
...it was very easy to see that their growth would slow or faith in such growth would diminish


Do you see that happening with TSLA? If you do, do you see it happening this year or next? If we look at the "bible" timeline laid out by Eric, when do you see TSLA deviating from the gospel, causing people to question their beliefs? It seems the near term production targets for the S and X are likely to come to fruition.  Won't this just strengthen the beliefs of the flock?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on February 28, 2014, 10:09:16 AM
My dad took his scheduled test drive a few weeks ago.

This is amazing on a few levels - he's not really a car guy, and it's strange that he would be compelled to take the intiative to stray from his default brand.  He's basically driven 2 different white S-class mercs for the greater part of the decade and a half.  White because he claims that in his native country a black full-size mercedes saloon is exclusively the domain of government officials or unsavory underworld characters. 

But since his test drive he's been very loose lipped about the Tesla.  As I said he typically defaults to brand orientation and it's interesting that Tesla in such a short time can hold mindshare against Mercedes, Bmw, or Audi...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on February 28, 2014, 10:09:32 AM
I agree with you. The cult of Musk is far stronger than the cult of expensive produce from Fresh Market. No debate that the grocers were a better idea, better executed and made me a nice profit in the 4 trades i did in both of those.

Edit: And the product FAR more revolutionary, since people have been going to the market since like the dawn of man
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 28, 2014, 10:14:07 AM
Elon Musk and his team put together the best car ever made on their first try

And his other company just docked with the space station, is testing re-usable rockets, and plans to send people to Mars.  I have to give thepupil some credit for having brass balls that I don't have. If I was short anything Musk was involved in, at any price, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

Yeah, not betting against Musk probably ranks somewhere along with 'Don't get involved in a land war in Asia' to me.

Doesn't mean the stock isn't overvalued or there won't be massive volatility both ways along the way, but definitely in the 'too hard' pile.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Vish_ram on February 28, 2014, 10:22:18 AM
What prevents Tesla from selling electric buses, trucks (like Peterbilts)? It may look farfetched now, but with improvements in technology, anything can happen.

Musk may venture into electric planes. You can't say sky is the limit when it comes to Musk.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 28, 2014, 10:24:32 AM
By the time we get close to 2020, there will be more Tesla products on the horizon, with more pie in the sky thinking.  So, will it really trade close to IV in 2020?

It's quite possible that people at that point won't be evaluating the stock based on 500,000 unit volume anymore.  They'll be looking at projections from the new plants they'll be opening for their pickup trucks, etc...  There will be talk of 1,000,000 volume.

How many models does BMW have in their lineup?  Porsche?

Just 3 models?  Nooo.....

This is no reason for me to buy it.  It's just a reason for me to not want to short it.


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on February 28, 2014, 10:26:32 AM
You can't say sky is the limit when it comes to Musk.

No sh*t, Sherlock. He's already building rockets ;)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 28, 2014, 10:27:40 AM
What prevents Tesla from selling electric buses, trucks (like Peterbilts)? It may look farfetched now, but with improvements in technology, anything can happen.

Musk may venture into electric planes. You can't say sky is the limit when it comes to Musk.

I doubt they'll spend their energies designing buses, but they could definitely sell powertrain technology to other companies making all kinds of things including buses, large trucks, construction equipment, military vehicles, whatever. They already have deals with Toyota and Daimler.

As for electric planes, Musk said he had a design for an electric jet that could take off and land vertically. Not sure if he'll develop it himself or release the design ideas in an 'open source' way like the Hyperloop idea.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on March 02, 2014, 11:23:24 PM
Tesla Convertible Debt Electrifies Long-Term Investors


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304585004579415371025118570?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304585004579415371025118570?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj)

Quote
The Palo Alto, Calif., company raised $2 billion in a sale of convertible debt—bonds that can be exchanged for stock—late last week, garnering an audience of big investors such as mutual funds and hedge funds. The deal ranked as the second-biggest sale of convertible bonds in the U.S. in the past two years, according to data provider Ipreo.

Tesla was able to raise 25% more than originally planned. The company intends to use that money in part for construction of a $5 billion plant to build batteries crucial to expanding its business, it said.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on March 04, 2014, 04:50:56 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101463960

Not much new or groundbreaking here, but I do like the quote that those who own Tesla are effectively betting that Tesla is the exception rather than the rule. I don't know the nuts and bolts of Goldman's study though.  Of course the opposite of that is that those shorting are betting it is not the exception and I think the consensus on here is that Elon Musk is certainly exceptional.

Did anyone on here buy the convertible bonds? The option is obviously worth something and Musk is monetizing short sellers need for a hedge with great effect.



Historically speaking, companies that fall into what Goldman Sachs labels the "super-high growth" category underperform the market over a one-, three- and five-year basis.

Flash-forward to the present day and investors are again fawning over names like electric luxury car manufacturer Tesla, social networking kingpin Facebook and online shopping giant Amazon, which has plenty of revenue for low or no profit, and there are some inescapable parallels.

"If you look back at the Internet bubble, Amazon is the exception and not the rule," Flam said. "By owning something like Tesla at a super-high multiple, you're making a bet if you will, or investing your dollar, in the exception, not the rule."

"Investors be warned: stocks with the highest long-term EPS growth expectations have historically underperformed the market. In the last 30 years, the median company with 30 percent consensus long-term growth has lagged the S&P 500 during the subsequent 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods. In fact, the only group of stocks that outperformed consisted of companies with negative expected long-term EPS growth."

"Tesla, Facebook—those are all characteristic of things that ultimately end the cycle. I just don't think they're pronounced," Paulsen said. "It's more a stepping away from the 'the world's going to end,' to 'I guess it's not.' I don't think we're seeing yet where animal spirits are really out there."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 05, 2014, 03:27:11 PM
Musk interview at Stanford business school from a few months ago, sorry if it's a repost:

http://youtu.be/MBItc_QAUUM
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on March 05, 2014, 03:59:12 PM
Musk interview at Stanford business school from a few months ago, sorry if it's a repost:

http://youtu.be/MBItc_QAUUM

I haven't seen this one. Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 05, 2014, 09:11:53 PM
On the rocket side, Musk wants to break into monopoly for military satellite launches, saying he could save government $1 billion/year: http://bloom.bg/1kyHzyE
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 11, 2014, 07:00:31 PM
Illegal to directly sell product to consumers in New Jersey:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/11/autos/tesla-new-jersey-ban/index.html?iid=Lead
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 11, 2014, 09:08:42 PM
Choice quote:

On March 6, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland, Christie had this to say: “We need to talk about the fact that we are for a free-market society that allows your effort and ingenuity to determine your success, not the cold, hard hand of the government,” as reported by Bloomberg.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/03/11/in-new-jersey-tesla-crashes-into-the-hypocrisy-of-chris-christie/?partner=yahootix

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 12, 2014, 05:29:13 AM
Choice quote:

On March 6, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland, Christie had this to say: “We need to talk about the fact that we are for a free-market society that allows your effort and ingenuity to determine your success, not the cold, hard hand of the government,” as reported by Bloomberg.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/03/11/in-new-jersey-tesla-crashes-into-the-hypocrisy-of-chris-christie/?partner=yahootix

Yes, Republicans are pro-freemarket the way Democrats are anti-war.  It sounds nice in their speeches, but ends there.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: RichardGibbons on March 12, 2014, 07:39:45 PM
I find it fascinating.  While there's corruption in government, usually the people involved try to hide it or make excuses.  It's rare that the corruption is so starkly visible.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on March 12, 2014, 08:12:42 PM

if tsla is able to sell directly to customers, should other automakers be able to as well?

hy
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 12, 2014, 08:25:36 PM

if tsla is able to sell directly to customers, should other automakers be able to as well?

hy

Of course.  Just like Apple has their stores where they sell computers and phones directly to consumers.  Next, Chris Christie is going to sign legislation to ban Apple from selling a computer directly.

Tesla services my car at cost

What does a dealership do for me?  Services my car at a profit.

It feels like a Chris Christie jobs program.  Socialist!  :D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: hyten1 on March 12, 2014, 08:28:58 PM
i agree and am all for sellling directly

this is definitely a interesting fight with wider implication than just tsla

Also eric, correctly me if i am wrong, the current situation is not quite like your apple analog. there are current existing "auto dealer" laws that are in place. now i am not saying i agree with the law or these laws are on the up and up. so its not quite the same, exactly.

obviously there are some room for interpretation of the law.

now i am not familiar with the law so someone correct me on this.

hy


if tsla is able to sell directly to customers, should other automakers be able to as well?

hy

Of course.  Just like Apple has their stores where they sell computers and phones directly to consumers.  Next, Chris Christie is going to sign legislation to ban Apple from selling a computer directly.

Tesla services my car at cost

What does a dealership do for me?  Services my car at a profit.

It feels like a Chris Christie jobs program.  Socialist!  :D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 12, 2014, 08:34:34 PM
i agree and am all for sellling directly

this is definitely a interesting fight with wider implication than just tsla

Also eric, correctly me if i am wrong, the current situation is not quite like your apple analog. there are current existing "auto dealer" laws that are in place. now i am not saying i agree with the law or these laws are on the up and up. so its not quite the same, exactly.

obviously there are some room for interpretation of the law.

now i am not familiar with the law so someone correct me on this.

hy


if tsla is able to sell directly to customers, should other automakers be able to as well?

hy

Of course.  Just like Apple has their stores where they sell computers and phones directly to consumers.  Next, Chris Christie is going to sign legislation to ban Apple from selling a computer directly.

Tesla services my car at cost

What does a dealership do for me?  Services my car at a profit.

It feels like a Chris Christie jobs program.  Socialist!  :D

He's probably also taking money from the firefighters.  You've got all those GM cars you know!

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2014/01/gm-to-recall-370000-silveradosierra-trucks-for-fire-risk/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 12, 2014, 08:38:59 PM
Also eric, correctly me if i am wrong, the current situation is not quite like your apple analog. there are current existing "auto dealer" laws that are in place. now i am not saying i agree with the law or these laws are on the up and up. so its not quite the same, exactly.

obviously there are some room for interpretation of the law.

I think you are right about this.  He is the Governor of a state where the free market has been banned.  And what is his position on this?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: LC on March 12, 2014, 10:41:19 PM
I wonder if any big owners of auto dealerships in NJ were helpful in Christie's political career?  ::)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 13, 2014, 12:00:08 PM
quoting:

Although Porsche sold only 155,000 cars last year, dwarfed by the VW brand's sales of 4.7 million cars, the sports-car maker reported a 173% surge in operating profit to €2.6 billion, making nearly as high a profit contribution to the group as the VW brand passenger-car division. Profit at the VW brand unit fell 21% to €2.9 billion.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579436621769480200?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines&mg=reno64-wsj
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 13, 2014, 12:53:50 PM
quoting:

Although Porsche sold only 155,000 cars last year, dwarfed by the VW brand's sales of 4.7 million cars, the sports-car maker reported a 173% surge in operating profit to €2.6 billion, making nearly as high a profit contribution to the group as the VW brand passenger-car division. Profit at the VW brand unit fell 21% to €2.9 billion.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579436621769480200?mod=WSJ_LatestHeadlines&mg=reno64-wsj

Margins are important.  Selling more cars doesn't necessarily equal making more money.  This reminds of me of people who think Apple is failing because most phones sold in the world are Android.  I have no position in any auto manufacturer, but it does makes me laugh a little at the people who would never invest in Tesla because it is overvalued, yet think Fiat is a great investment because "look how many cars they sell!"  "Millions!".  Now if they can just increase their margins....  But what if they never do.  Chrysler is a company that (if we had a free market) should have went bankrupt almost 40 years ago if it wasn't for government intervention and Fiat isn't the first to try to turn that ship around in the years since.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on March 13, 2014, 01:00:56 PM
^You don't think Fiat has any high margin brands?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 13, 2014, 01:02:12 PM
This is about SpaceX rather than Tesla, but I found this interaction between Elon Musk and Senator Richard Shelby pretty amusing.

from: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/bad-relations-in-russia-are-now.html (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/bad-relations-in-russia-are-now.html)

Quote
Shelby asks Musk what he thinks about ULA's 68 consecutive launches.

Musk: "I would also like to point out that there were two highly publicized failure investigations, one into Delta IV Heavy and one into Atlas, that the Air Force conducted. ULA has a very good track record; it is not quite as perfect as 68 launches."

Gass (ULA CEO): "We measure mission success by our customer's declaration, so if they declare a mission is a success, we use the same record".

Shelby: "Mr. Musk, in October 2012, a secondary payload aboard a Space X Falcon 9 was sent into the wrong orbit because one of the Merlin engines powering the Falcon 9 failed."

Musk: "Right. Well, by ULA's definition of success, that mission was perfect."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 13, 2014, 01:04:49 PM
^You don't think Fiat has any high margin brands?

They do, but I'm not sure if buying Chrysler was a mistake or not.  Time will tell.  Also the stock was pretty cheap a few months ago.  Much more so than now.  I looked at it, but didn't pull the trigger.  Chrysler worries me.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on March 13, 2014, 02:04:10 PM
This is about SpaceX rather than Tesla, but I found this interaction between Elon Musk and Senator Richard Shelby pretty amusing.

from: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/bad-relations-in-russia-are-now.html (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/03/bad-relations-in-russia-are-now.html)

Quote
Shelby asks Musk what he thinks about ULA's 68 consecutive launches.

Musk: "I would also like to point out that there were two highly publicized failure investigations, one into Delta IV Heavy and one into Atlas, that the Air Force conducted. ULA has a very good track record; it is not quite as perfect as 68 launches."

Gass (ULA CEO): "We measure mission success by our customer's declaration, so if they declare a mission is a success, we use the same record".

Shelby: "Mr. Musk, in October 2012, a secondary payload aboard a Space X Falcon 9 was sent into the wrong orbit because one of the Merlin engines powering the Falcon 9 failed."

Musk: "Right. Well, by ULA's definition of success, that mission was perfect."

Hahaha. Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on March 17, 2014, 06:56:57 AM
Musk about the New Jersey situation:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/people-new-jersey
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 17, 2014, 07:23:54 AM
Musk about the New Jersey situation:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/people-new-jersey

Thanks for posting this.  The thing about Musk I like is that he doesn't beat around the bush or mince words, but just says it like he sees it.  I love this paragraph:

Quote
The rationale given for the regulation change that requires auto companies to sell through dealers is that it ensures “consumer protection”. If you believe this, Gov. Christie has a bridge closure he wants to sell you! Unless they are referring to the mafia version of “protection”, this is obviously untrue. As anyone who has been through the conventional auto dealer purchase process knows, consumer protection is pretty much the furthest thing from the typical car dealer’s mind.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 18, 2014, 10:21:16 AM
http://youtu.be/TMYmSuicTXE

Interview for dutch tv from a few months ago.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: moody202 on March 18, 2014, 02:22:54 PM

Margins are important.  Selling more cars doesn't necessarily equal making more money. 

Great point...VW is a perfect example. They seem to be focused on being #1, not on profitability. How many times have we seen this movie play out?

Since we are on the topic....I like Toyota as an investment. Not a value play but it's trading <10 on PE and brand is stronger than ever!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Phaceliacapital on March 19, 2014, 12:28:41 AM
Like GM, largest car company by revenues, bankrupt nonetheless.

Scale only matters if you can do it in the right segments.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jouni1 on March 19, 2014, 03:30:42 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101503303

tesla is the new apple. IF musk is as successful as henry ford, the stock will be a double, says cramer (and GS)!  ::)

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on March 20, 2014, 09:39:14 AM
Tesla Can Topple the Car-Dealer Monopoly



http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-20/tesla-can-topple-the-car-dealer-monopoly (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-20/tesla-can-topple-the-car-dealer-monopoly)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on March 20, 2014, 10:27:58 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101503303

tesla is the new apple. IF musk is as successful as henry ford, the stock will be a double, says cramer (and GS)!  ::)

I find it hard to disagree with this assessment. I think Musk is more gifted than Steve Jobs and will go on to do far greater things than the Apple co-founder.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on March 21, 2014, 09:39:51 AM
Wow, Larry page would rather give his money to Musk than to charity!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2014/03/20/google_ceo_larry_page_elon_musk_would_get_my_inheritance_over_charity.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 21, 2014, 09:59:28 AM
Wow, Larry page would rather give his money to Musk than to charity!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2014/03/20/google_ceo_larry_page_elon_musk_would_get_my_inheritance_over_charity.html

Something tells me he's going to get some flak for saying that.   He is correct though, giving money to Elon Musk rather than to someone like Bill Gates, would do humanity more good and help pull more people out of poverty in the long run.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: beerbaron on March 21, 2014, 08:16:19 PM
Wow, Larry page would rather give his money to Musk than to charity!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2014/03/20/google_ceo_larry_page_elon_musk_would_get_my_inheritance_over_charity.html

Something tells me he's going to get some flak for saying that.   He is correct though, giving money to Elon Musk rather than to someone like Bill Gates, would do humanity more good and help pull more people out of poverty in the long run.

This reminds me of those NPO trying to make a laptop for 100$ or less for the last 10 years. They have been getting grants and donations for many years yet, they can't compete with free markets bringing better priced products. It goes to show that scale and incentives are powerfull tools in regards to success!

BeerBaron
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 21, 2014, 08:24:57 PM
Wow, Larry page would rather give his money to Musk than to charity!

http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2014/03/20/google_ceo_larry_page_elon_musk_would_get_my_inheritance_over_charity.html

Something tells me he's going to get some flak for saying that.   He is correct though, giving money to Elon Musk rather than to someone like Bill Gates, would do humanity more good and help pull more people out of poverty in the long run.

This reminds me of those NPO trying to make a laptop for 100$ or less for the last 10 years. They have been getting grants and donations for many years yet, they can't compete with free markets bringing better priced products. It goes to show that scale and incentives are powerfull tools in regards to success!

BeerBaron

For things that the market does, definitely. But using Gates as a counter example doesn't quite work IMO because he does a lot of things that the market isn't much interested in because there's not much money to make (ie. medical research into poor country diseases, vaccinating people, etc), so he's definitely making a big difference.

But if the Gates Foundation was trying to make a better CPU or lithium-ion battery, they couldn't compete for sure.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: cubsfan on March 24, 2014, 04:42:54 PM
Long or Short Tesla - you have got to see this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkvYvk8vxuw&sns=em

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: blainehodder on March 28, 2014, 06:51:42 AM
Tesla Adds Titanium Underbody Shield and Aluminum Deflector Plates to Model S.

https://medium.com/p/544f35965a0d

"We believe these changes will also help prevent a fire resulting from an extremely high speed impact that tears the wheels off the car, like the other Model S impact fire, which occurred last year in Mexico. This happened after the vehicle impacted a roundabout at 110 mph, shearing off 15 feet of concrete curbwall and tearing off the left front wheel, then smashing through an eight foot tall buttressed concrete wall on the other side of the road and tearing off the right front wheel, before crashing into a tree. The driver stepped out and walked away with no permanent injuries and a fire, again limited to the front section of the vehicle, started several minutes later. The underbody shields will help prevent a fire even in such a scenario."

Amazing how safe these cars really are.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on March 28, 2014, 10:08:07 AM
I don understand why people would buy tesla:) it looks like to me just a bigger Ford.. but this is just me:)
european doesn't buy it. it's too big.  chinese buy it because it's "luxury" but cheaper than bmw 3.

they better execute flawlessly on the suv otherwise they will be done.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on March 28, 2014, 11:00:06 AM
Their customers LOVE their cars.  It's like a religion almost.  There are videos on Youtube where people make their own videos about their Tesla.  Even the people with complaints about the car (it has some bugs) still like their car.

Consumer Reports gave the car a shocking 99 out of 100.  Consumer Reports is generally known for being independent.  Other car magazines tend to be extremely positive about every car out there and they suck up to advertisers; Consumer Reports doesn't play that game.

*I used to be short this stock.  I currently have no position in it.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: siddharth18 on March 28, 2014, 11:21:25 AM
It was earlier reported that Larry Page & Sergey Brin were early investors in TSLA. Does anyone know what % they still own (if any) ?

Their names are not disclosed in the proxy: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312513158904/d506419ddef14a.htm#toc506419_35
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on March 28, 2014, 11:32:32 AM
I don understand why people would buy tesla:) it looks like to me just a bigger Ford.. but this is just me:)
european doesn't buy it. it's too big.  chinese buy it because it's "luxury" but cheaper than bmw 3.

they better execute flawlessly on the suv otherwise they will be done.

Remember that it is a high end luxury car, in the vein of Mercedes CLS/E, BMW 5/5G, Audi A6+. Furthermore, according to Consumer Reports, it is one of the best cars ever made. If you are shopping in that particular price level, and many are, why wouldn't you look at it seriously?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on March 28, 2014, 11:37:27 AM
I am still short of Tesla.

It is an absolutely amazing product and car. MANY people have and will continue to buy the S, the X, and whatever else they come up with. 

There are reasons to be short Tesla stock, but a bad product that no one will buy is DEFINITELY not one of them.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 28, 2014, 11:47:17 AM
european doesn't buy it. it's too big.

Interesting.  I always thought it was the same size as European cars such as:

BMW 7 series
Aston Martin Rapide
Jaguar XJ


Perhaps the $9 a gallon gas has made small cars popular in Europe.  How much gas does it take to fill up a Tesla Model S?

I figure the Aston Martin buyers aren't too concerned with the price of gas.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on April 02, 2014, 08:39:51 AM
Incredible, 10% of new cars sold in March in Norway are Tesla S!

http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-sales-norway/

And 20% electric cars!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 02, 2014, 08:42:56 AM
For those who haven't yet seen it:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-and-spacex-elon-musks-industrial-empire/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on April 08, 2014, 11:55:02 AM
I see your taking over Norway, and raise you a stagnating in the  USA.

I'm sure there is some less exciting (for the unbelievers such as myself) reason that they aren't growing in the US (waiting on an X or something, production delays as they ramp up international, etc.), but I still can't help but be a little titillated by the thought of 0% domestic growth.

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-sales-slow-20140408,0,4757765.story#axzz2yJm53BC0

Johnson said U.S. sales of the Model S, which starts at about $71,000, peaked in the second quarter of last year.

Through the first three months of this year, the Palo Alto car company has sold 4,700 cars in the U.S., up not quite 1% from the same period a year earlier.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 08, 2014, 12:09:31 PM
Tesla is currently supply constrained. They're selling all the cars that they're making as production ramps up quickly. If growth is flattening in the US, it's only because they've started shipping some cars to Europe (and Asia is coming soon IRC).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on April 08, 2014, 12:18:43 PM
that would make sense for a capital intensive business (which i believe it is and i believe is the key to whether or not the current price makes an iota of sense).

those who purchased the no no convertible offering (well almost a no no, there was a bit of coupon) are down about 8% and way out of the money so I have some hope that money will not always be free for Tesla, though i am worried their deposits provide some level of free capital (akin to AMZN's payables float that finances their growth).

anyways, I will allow the thread to go back to Musk admiration.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 08, 2014, 12:36:06 PM
that would make sense for a capital intensive business (which i believe it is and i believe is the key to whether or not the current price makes an iota of sense).

Setting up the factory during growth phase certainly must be capital intensive, but once the robots are all in place, it probably goes down a fair bit. Same with the battery gigafactory.

It took less time for Tesla to go from zero cars and no factory to where it is now than it takes most big automakers to redesign just one of their models, and they mostly just iterate on existing tech, so there's not the added difficulty of building from the ground up with a new powertrain technology and a skeptical public... so it's not like they're moving slow if you keep them in context of their industry.

Musk has said in interview that the hard part with growing so fast is that not all partners in their supply chain were taking them that seriously not so long ago, so they haven't all invested what they need to keep up with them. And if you are missing just one of the thousands of parts you need, you can't ship the cars...

In any case, the number to watch is total number of cars shipped, not just in the US now that they are more international. Saying that Tesla is stagnating at this point is just disinformation. There are very long waiting lists in the US.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on April 14, 2014, 05:46:40 PM
techcrunch.com/2014/04/14/100-tesla-model-s-convertibles-are-headed-to-china/?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000591

How cool is this car ?

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on April 20, 2014, 09:26:14 PM
"an analysis to Tesla's messy situation in China"

http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5MjM3NzQwMA==&mid=200333554&idx=1&sn=67c2a9a4b5294ac0ab33635110c94300&scene=2&from=timeline&isappinstalled=0&uin=MjcyMTg5MzkwMw%3D%3D

the author interviewed a few ex tesla employees, including the ex head of china sales, and talked about the challenges tesla is facing in china, such as a recent law suits filed by a group of customers, delays  in delivering cars due to problems of getting real estates /lots for building charging stations, etc.

Sent from my iPad
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: beerbaron on April 21, 2014, 09:49:54 AM
Did I read correctly that they want to charge 75 Millions RMB for a tesla? That is more than 10 millions USD!

BeerBaron
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 21, 2014, 10:11:56 AM
Did I read correctly that they want to charge 75 Millions RMB for a tesla? That is more than 10 millions USD!

BeerBaron

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/fair-price

Quote
Instead, the price of a Model S in China is much lower than its competitors simply because we want to treat our Chinese customers just as well as we'd treat customers in any other country. That means the price of a Model S in China is the same as the price of a Model S in the US, adding only unavoidable taxes, customs duties and transportation costs. We're not even factoring in the cost of the free-to-use Supercharger network that Tesla will build across China.

734k CNY is a big risk for Tesla. We know it's unconventional. We know we could charge more. We know that our competitors will try to convince Chinese consumers that our relatively lower price tag means the Model S is a lesser car, when the real reason their car costs more is that they make double the profit per car in China compared to the United States or Europe.

But we decided to take a chance anyway.

Below is the exact math for 734k CNY:

$81,070    US price
$3,600    Shipping & handling
$19,000    Customs duties & taxes
$17,700    VAT
734k CNY @ 6.05 exchange rate
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on April 21, 2014, 06:12:08 PM
the article says it's 750k RMB ( 1 USD = 5.7 RMB).
I think it's cheaper than BMW in China, due to much lower tax.

Here is a quick summary:

The article talked about there's more than 5000 orders as of end of 2013, but the car's can't be delivered because charging stations are not built. one reason the charging stations are not built was because the old sales team, led by Blankenship (ex head of sales) were fired/pushed out, by the new sales team who was mostly made up of ex-apple people and are western educated.
The new team doesn't have the expertise to get the permits for getting the lots in major Chinese cities for building the charging stations. They are also not familiar with Chinese regulations. This resulted a situation where there's more orders than what they can deliver.
The article also talked about some customers are getting cars earlier than others (because those customers are located in regions where the charging stations are ready), resulting a law suit from a group of 23 customers.
It also talked about the new sales team tried to increase sales by doing "fleet sales" - selling to car renting companies. But for a order of buying 500 cars, only 10 actual car is produced (due to only 10 charging stations were built).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on April 21, 2014, 06:13:20 PM
The Chinese want their Tesla car so badly that they've hired lawyers to negotiate with Tesla for earlier delivery:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304049904579515434271348994?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_business&mg=reno64-wsj


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 21, 2014, 06:56:57 PM
Import taxes won't be a problem for very long either:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-20/tesla-to-start-model-s-sales-to-china-s-elusive-motorists.html

"Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, who’s preparing to begin deliveries of the Model S electric vehicle in China, forecast the company will be making cars in the country in the next three to four years. "
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 25, 2014, 02:43:45 PM
Awesome: http://mashable.com/2014/04/25/elon-musk-spacex-booster-stage-atlantic/

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/elon-musk-spacex-s-soft-landing-a-success-czSZgIIVRE2OdDqgD8R6hA.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: LC on April 25, 2014, 06:01:09 PM
Awesome: http://mashable.com/2014/04/25/elon-musk-spacex-booster-stage-atlantic/

That was so freaking cool!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 25, 2014, 06:42:53 PM
From another site:

Quote
Equally large news from today's press conference at the National Press Club - SpaceX is taking on ULA (united launch alliance, a consortium of incumbent players in the market) and the "block buy" allocation of military / national-security launches to ULA.
Here's their handout, from one of the reporters there:
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/459734785314013184
Playing politics a bit, Elon's claiming a ~ 75% reduction in launch costs by using Falcon 9 rockets instead of the block buys allocated to ULA, so he's filing a lawsuit to give his company access to this market. He even goes into details of how some of ULA's engines are manufactured in Russia, and given the festivities in the Ukraine our legislators would rather be less dependent on Russia for space access. He even whets the politicians' appetites with his blurb at the bottom describing how $1B per year could instead pay for operating a fleet of A-10's, or 15 Marine Corps battalions, or 12 F-16 squadrons ... or it could instead pay for purchasing 10 F-35's, 2 LCS's, or 50 UH-60 Black Hawks.
Politicians (and Beltway reporters) definitely respond to money dangled in front of their face.
Here's how he arrives at the ~75% reduction, btw:
• ULA annual cost: $3.0-3.5B
• ULA cost per launch: ~$460M
• Falcon 9 cost: "under $100M"
This forum has tons of live-blog style commentary leading up to and during the press conference.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=lsmvrej5r2jcakuthchhko36i5&topic=34552.0

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/459734785314013184

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmFOWexIEAAzCWx.jpg:large)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on April 26, 2014, 11:04:10 PM
Suing the US Air Force  8)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-26/musk-s-spacex-to-sue-u-s-air-force-over-launch-monopoly.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2014, 10:30:13 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/01/us-spacex-unitedlaunchalliance-idUSKBN0DH2G420140501

Quote
(Reuters) - A U.S. Court of Federal Claims judge issued an injunction late Wednesday prohibiting a joint venture between Lockheed Martin Corp and Boeing from proceeding with plans to buy Russian-made rocket engines used to send U.S. Air Force satellites into space.

Space Exploration Technologies, the privately held company known as SpaceX, won the temporary injunction against the U.S. government and contractors Boeing and Lockheed operating as United Launch Alliance.

The U.S. Air Force and United Launch Alliance are prohibited "from making any purchases from or payment of money to NPO Energomash", Federal Claims Court Judge Susan Braden wrote in the order.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on May 01, 2014, 10:31:31 AM
Liberty, thanks for the update! I know it isn't directly related to Tesla the stock.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2014, 10:34:49 AM
Liberty, thanks for the update! I know it isn't directly related to Tesla the stock.

I apologize about that, I've been kind of using this thread as the general Elon Musk repository since I know that nobody is really discussing buying Tesla anymore and the shorts aren't very verbose either. Maybe I should create another thread for that on the general board, though.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on May 01, 2014, 10:48:09 AM
I'm fine with it here since there isn't a lot on the board about space_x and I do think it adds to the understanding of Elon Musk.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 07, 2014, 01:29:22 PM
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3152651436x0x752463/4d500edc-fd71-4b5b-8b60-542f73d9c64e/Q1'14%20Shareholder%20Letter%20final.pdf

• Record Q1 Model S production of 7,535 vehicles
• Delivered 6,457 Model S vehicles, slightly exceeding guidance
• Net income of $17M and $0.12 EPS (non-GAAP), loss of $50M and $(0.40) EPS (GAAP)
• Expansion in Asia starts with first deliveries into China
• $2.3B raised in convertible notes offerings
• Significant Gigafactory and capacity expansion progress
• On track for more than 35,000 deliveries in 2014

There's a letter to shareholders at the link above.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on May 07, 2014, 08:56:33 PM
they boost about china is a huge market for them. I think that's overrated.
They say they have 4000 orders. But so far, they only delivered 15 cars. 8 in Beijing, 7 in Shanghai. A friend was one of the 15 people (he's in the picture of tsla shareholder letter). I suspect the 15 cars is all they have delivered in China.They couldn't deliver more cars because there's just no place to charge the cars. They are having problems getting permits to build charging stations in the city. Unlike in US, Chinese doesn't have a house or garage where they can charge their cars so you have to build charging stations. But they recently fired their sales team and the new sales team have no local experience in dealing with the local government.

and now competitors like bmw is catching up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 07, 2014, 09:27:49 PM
they boost about china is a huge market for them. I think that's overrated.
They say they have 4000 orders. But so far, they only delivered 15 cars. 8 in Beijing, 7 in Shanghai. A friend was one of the 15 people (he's in the picture of tsla shareholder letter). I suspect the 15 cars is all they have delivered in China.They couldn't deliver more cars because there's just no place to charge the cars. They are having problems getting permits to build charging stations in the city. Unlike in US, Chinese doesn't have a house or garage where they can charge their cars so you have to build charging stations. But they recently fired their sales team and the new sales team have no local experience in dealing with the local government.

and now competitors like bmw is catching up.

You think charging is the reason why only 15 cars were delivered?  Has BYD also only sold 15?  It just doesn't seem like the reason to me.

This article suggests that the market is not being held down at just 15 vehicles due to lack of charging, as BYD has sold 6,000 of one of it's models in 2014:

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=32657

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on May 07, 2014, 09:41:35 PM
"Tesla has cited the lack of charging facilities as the reason behind its decision to hold delivery to these customers on a later date. The two charging stations in Beijing and Shanghai each have six charging posts powered by solar panels provided by Chinese solar equipment maker Hanergy."


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/22/us-autoshow-china-tesla-motors-idUSBREA3L0TN20140422
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on May 07, 2014, 09:50:53 PM
I think it's much simpler setup to charge a BYD. I remember seeing a picture where a BYD employee drove around china and charge the car at local resturants. also BYD car is dual mode. so you don't have to charge it. the gas engine will charge the battery.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 07, 2014, 09:53:34 PM
I think it's much simpler setup to charge a BYD. I remember seeing a picture where a BYD employee drove around china and charge the car at local resturants.


It is no more difficult than that to charge a Model S.  You just plug it in.  Unless the BYD has a robotic arm doing it for you, then they are they same.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: sleepydragon on May 07, 2014, 09:55:57 PM
"Tesla has cited the lack of charging facilities as the reason behind its decision to hold delivery to these customers on a later date. The two charging stations in Beijing and Shanghai each have six charging posts powered by solar panels provided by Chinese solar equipment maker Hanergy."


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/22/us-autoshow-china-tesla-motors-idUSBREA3L0TN20140422

sorry, posted the wrong link. here is the right one:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-04/24/c_133284928.htm
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 07, 2014, 09:56:37 PM
"Tesla has cited the lack of charging facilities as the reason behind its decision to hold delivery to these customers on a later date. The two charging stations in Beijing and Shanghai each have six charging posts powered by solar panels provided by Chinese solar equipment maker Hanergy."


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/22/us-autoshow-china-tesla-motors-idUSBREA3L0TN20140422

Keep in mind that Tesla is being sued for not delivering the cars (being sued by Chinese that are tired of waiting for the car).  They are suing for faster delivery.

I suspect this is a BS reason that Tesla is giving here.  They are supply constrained right now -- can't make the cars fast enough.  They do not have service centers -- what happens if the car breaks down for a customer?  That's more of the story rather than a lack of charging infrastructure.  You can charge a Tesla if you can charge a BYD car.


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on May 09, 2014, 06:34:07 AM
An interesting point of view, speculating a bit on the gigafactory purpose and the value of a 8-years old Tesla:

http://insideevs.com/tesla-giga-factory-protects-aging-tesla-model-s/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 13, 2014, 12:20:42 PM
Hilarious:

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s2
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 19, 2014, 06:00:38 PM
Are Tesla's Plans for a Giant Battery Factory Realistic?

The Electric-Car Company Hopes the Plant Drives Down Prices. Here's How the Experts View It.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303647204579546060181430456?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest&mg=reno64-wsj (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303647204579546060181430456?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest&mg=reno64-wsj)

All these experts made me go  ::)

I've been following Tesla since 2006, and every single step of the way experts have cogently explained why the company couldn't do what it said it would do and was bound to fail soon. These guys might know their narrow fields very well, but they don't know much about buildings products and companies. If Steve Jobs had told them his plans in 2006, they'd have explained why he should slow down an take fewer chances and be more like RIM and Nokia... Another way to put it: Who's more an expert on making this kind of stuff happen, Elon Musk or these R&D guys?

Best to file this and look at it again in a few years when Musk is breaking ground on his second gigafactory and has over-delivered on the 30% cost improvement...

Speaking of gigafactories, Musk says the world will need hundreds of them:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/musk-sees-need-for-hundreds-of-battery-gigafactories-.html

Which makes sense if you do the math.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 20, 2014, 05:53:54 AM
Are Tesla's Plans for a Giant Battery Factory Realistic?

The Electric-Car Company Hopes the Plant Drives Down Prices. Here's How the Experts View It.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303647204579546060181430456?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest&mg=reno64-wsj (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303647204579546060181430456?mod=WSJ_qtoverview_wsjlatest&mg=reno64-wsj)

All these experts made me go  ::)

I've been following Tesla since 2006, and every single step of the way experts have cogently explained why the company couldn't do what it said it would do and was bound to fail soon. These guys might know their narrow fields very well, but they don't know much about buildings products and companies. If Steve Jobs had told them his plans in 2006, they'd have explained why he should slow down an take fewer chances and be more like RIM and Nokia... Another way to put it: Who's more an expert on making this kind of stuff happen, Elon Musk or these R&D guys?

Best to file this and look at it again in a few years when Musk is breaking ground on his second gigafactory and has over-delivered on the 30% cost improvement...

Speaking of gigafactories, Musk says the world will need hundreds of them:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/musk-sees-need-for-hundreds-of-battery-gigafactories-.html

Which makes sense if you do the math.

+1

I don't put much stock in such self proclaimed "experts".  If they knew how to run & grow a company successfully, they'd be running and growing a company.  If they knew which companies to invest in they'd be Billionaire investors.

So let's look at who these so-called experts consist of.  Two professors (LOL), a former chief exec of a failed battery company, and a former Toyota exec who admits "We didn't anticipate Prius would sell like it did".   Yep, Musk should take the advise of this crew.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 06:31:36 AM
So let's look at who these so-called experts consist of.  Two professors (LOL), a former chief exec of a failed battery company, and a former Toyota exec who admits "We didn't anticipate Prius would sell like it did".   Yep, Musk should take the advise of this crew.

The Toyota guy is particularly telling, IMO. Toyota had an unexpected win, but instead of being ambitious about it, they approached it as "oh, nice, we found a new small niche. let's do everything to keep it segmented away". Even with that attitude, it's the #1-2 best selling model in Japan and sells well in the US. What would it be if they handled it better?

A more entrepreneurial spirit running that project would have switched the batteries from NiMH to lithium-ion long ago, added the plug-in capability by default and made an all-electric version, been more aggressive about weight reduction (aluminum, etc) and made the styling appealing to more people (don't need to look strange to have a low coefficient of drag, look at the Model S); something like a less upscale Lexus IS plug-in would've sold well.

I think Musk and the RMI guys are right about this. Traditional car makers can't compete in EVs because they have such a huge investment in old technologies (steel stamping, huge supply chains for gas engines and transmissions, etc), aren't nimble enough, and to sell EVs properly means pointing out the problems with the rest of their lineups (which is why Musk wants nothing to do with third party dealerships).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: longinvestor on May 20, 2014, 06:58:01 AM
So let's look at who these so-called experts consist of.  Two professors (LOL), a former chief exec of a failed battery company, and a former Toyota exec who admits "We didn't anticipate Prius would sell like it did".   Yep, Musk should take the advise of this crew.

The Toyota guy is particularly telling, IMO. Toyota had an unexpected win, but instead of being ambitious about it, they approached it as "oh, nice, we found a new small niche. let's do everything to keep it segmented away". Even with that attitude, it's the #1-2 best selling model in Japan and sells well in the US. What would it be if they handled it better?

A more entrepreneurial spirit running that project would have switched the batteries from NiMH to lithium-ion long ago, added the plug-in capability by default and made an all-electric version, been more aggressive about weight reduction (aluminum, etc) and made the styling appealing to more people (don't need to look strange to have a low coefficient of drag, look at the Model S); something like a less upscale Lexus IS plug-in would've sold well.

I think Musk and the RMI guys are right about this. Traditional car makers can't compete in EVs because they have such a huge investment in old technologies (steel stamping, huge supply chains for gas engines and transmissions, etc), aren't nimble enough, and to sell EVs properly means pointing out the problems with the rest of their lineups (which is why Musk wants nothing to do with third party dealerships).

When it comes to Toyota, I wouldn't be so dismissive. It was a quite long time ago, but in the early 80's, luxury car makers (BMW, Mercedes in particular) laughed at Toyota as word emerged of their planned entry into this segment. We know what happened in the 90's. And oh, btw, Prius was launched in 1996. They've been #1 since, not a bad niche for them to let it be "segmented away".

Tesla's long haul success will be tested as price point for EV drops, likely very dramatically. Payload, Luxury, style etc. notwithstanding. Well, we'll find out, won't we.



Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 20, 2014, 07:13:02 AM
Tesla's long haul success will be tested as price point for EV drops, likely very dramatically. Payload, Luxury, style etc. notwithstanding. Well, we'll find out, won't we.

BMW can still sell gasoline powered cars at a premium despite there being many cheap models to choose from on the market. 

So far, BMW has managed to survive on quality and luxury.  It has been documented that Tesla received the highest rating on their cars from various sources.

Or you can look at the continued success of Porsche despite the many cheaper discount performance cars.  Like a Toyota Supra back in the 80s.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 07:17:07 AM
When it comes to Toyota, I wouldn't be so dismissive. It was a quite long time ago, but in the early 80's, luxury car makers (BMW, Mercedes in particular) laughed at Toyota as word emerged of their planned entry into this segment. We know what happened in the 90's. And oh, btw, Prius was launched in 1996. They've been #1 since, not a bad niche for them to let it be "segmented away".

Tesla's long haul success will be tested as price point for EV drops, likely very dramatically. Payload, Luxury, style etc. notwithstanding. Well, we'll find out, won't we.

I'm not dismissive. I've been a big fan of the Prius since the early 2000s when it came to North-America. I think it's a good thing that they've been putting the HSD in more models, and how they've inspired many other companies to make hybrids. But I'm saying that they held back their own success by not thinking big enough. I'm saying they could have done much better. 15 years later the Prius is less than 2x the efficiency of the original (though it's bigger, but still) and uses the same battery chemistry. Let's see where Musk is in 15 years (Mars?).

And the Prius was launched in 1997 in Japan, not 1996. But it's only with the 2004 refresh that it started selling decently.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on May 20, 2014, 07:17:20 AM
Despite Toyota's success, I still don't believe Lexus has the brand cachet, style, and general appeal the way Merc or BMW does, and I think Tesla is striking at Mercedes and BMW far better than Lexus did. Even recently, a Toyota executive admitted that Lexus was just viewed as another distribution channel.


I disagree with the second part of your statement. Tesla is not just an EV, it is one of the best cars ever made, and even if the price of an EV drops, it doesn't damage the car's merits, focusing on it being an EV is the wrong way to go IMO.


As for valuation, I'm just trying to think of the firms it can replace. Mercedes has a 90B MCap, BMW has about 50B, Lexus and Audi are presumably a little smaller. I believe it can grow into one of these firms, and take away market share from them, however, these firms are all in the 30-80B range. In that context, I believe Tesla at 20B is probably no more than moderately undervalued, and may be close to fair value. Car companies just aren't that big.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on May 20, 2014, 08:02:33 AM
What about the idea that Tesla doesn't really want to be a car company?

The real business is to become the defacto battery and charging infrastructure suplier to all other car companies.  The vehicles that Tesla creates today are simply a proof of concept.  Tesla battery is Android, Model S is Nexus, and BMW is Samsung to use a weak analogy.

This version of Tesla is much more appealing to me.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 08:05:26 AM
Quote from: longinvestor
I drove the Prius in South Carolina, it was my friend's car, it was a year old and he bought in Atlanta. The year was 1998.

Please ask your friend where he got it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prius#First_generation_.28XW10.3B_1997.E2.80.932003.29

Even the Honda Insight only came to the US in 1999:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Insight#First_generation_.281999.E2.80.932006.29
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 08:14:40 AM
What about the idea that Tesla doesn't really want to be a car company?

The real business is to become the defacto battery and charging infrastructure suplier to all other car companies.  The vehicles that Tesla creates today are simply a proof of concept.  Tesla battery is Android, Model S is Nexus, and BMW is Samsung to use a weak analogy.

This version of Tesla is much more appealing to me.

So be a commodity supplier of batteries and charging stations rather than a differentiated consumer business? Doesn't sound good to me. As good as the Tesla batteries and power electronics are, if you put them in a Camry, you couldn't sell it for 100k and it wouldn't get 99/100 in Consumer Reports... It's not what make people want to buy that car. If Tesla was a drivetrain/charging station supplier, it would have to compete mostly on price. Bad position to be in.

If you listen to what Musk has been saying, he got in the business because he believes that transportation needs to be electrified (it's one half of his vision of 'produce clean energy/run things on clean energy' -- SolarCity is the other side of the coin of Tesla, basically). At first he expected other car makers to do it, but when he saw that they weren't willing/able, he decided to do it himself.

So I'm sure Musk will do everything he can to catalyze the industry (he already supplies others, and his success is the best catalyst, creating followers), but now that he's making the best cars in the world, I doubt he'll just voluntarily stop doing that to make drivetrains and build charging stations for inferior EVs made by others... Tesla is an incredible brand that was built by taking huge risks, so why give that up or dilute it?

I believe that supplying others could be a big business, but they'll never stop making EVs as long as they don't go out of business.

Another way to put it: Batteries and charging stations are a competitive advantage for your product if they are better than the competition, but they're still only a small part of the overall product. But that's not where the business is. These things only store and provide energy, and other people can make decent batteries and charging stations. The real business is in the finished products; nobody else can make a Model S, have the whole package at that level of quality. It's like if Apple stopped making iPhones and became a supplier of A7 chips to others. Sure their stuff is better than the competition, but that's not where the real business is...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on May 20, 2014, 08:19:55 AM
What about the idea that Tesla doesn't really want to be a car company?

The real business is to become the defacto battery and charging infrastructure suplier to all other car companies.  The vehicles that Tesla creates today are simply a proof of concept.  Tesla battery is Android, Model S is Nexus, and BMW is Samsung to use a weak analogy.

This version of Tesla is much more appealing to me.

But why? Tesla has shown that they can build better cars than BMW or Mercedes....why would they throw that away?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on May 20, 2014, 08:22:20 AM
Just want to throw this out there -- I had a conversation with a friend who is in the clean tech space. Ultimately he is a Tesla bull (our conversation started because he was wearing a Tesla hat, and visited their production facility last week). That said, he laid out what he saw as the threats to their business.  The one that caught my attention was this:

Quote
New battery chemistries can come along which don't require the scale to reach these cost targets.  For example, last week I hosted a meeting at [undisclosed top 5 VC] with two of their partners, and 5 battery companies...these other companies are focused on the game changing chemistries, and not the incremental improvements that Lithium Ion provides.

He is a Chem E. by training and also an MBA. I guess the threat here would be a technology that comes out of the blue, which makes their Gigafactory obsolete. Still, I think commercializing one of those would take a long time by which Tesla may have already realized some return from their investment.

One additional positive he focused on was leveraging the Gigafactory for other uses, specifically backup power supplies. Just thought I'd pass it along FWIW.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 20, 2014, 08:42:17 AM
Just want to throw this out there -- I had a conversation with a friend who is in the clean tech space. Ultimately he is a Tesla bull (our conversation started because he was wearing a Tesla hat, and visited their production facility last week). That said, he laid out what he saw as the threats to their business.  The one that caught my attention was this:

Quote
New battery chemistries can come along which don't require the scale to reach these cost targets.  For example, last week I hosted a meeting at [undisclosed top 5 VC] with two of their partners, and 5 battery companies...these other companies are focused on the game changing chemistries, and not the incremental improvements that Lithium Ion provides.

He is a Chem E. by training and also an MBA. I guess the threat here would be a technology that comes out of the blue, which makes their Gigafactory obsolete. Still, I think commercializing one of those would take a long time by which Tesla may have already realized some return from their investment.

One additional positive he focused on was leveraging the Gigafactory for other uses, specifically backup power supplies. Just thought I'd pass it along FWIW.

Interesting.  Someone sent me this link the other day.  http://powerjapanplus.com/ (http://powerjapanplus.com/).

I wonder if Tesla is doing any internal research on battery chemistry?   Or are they just going to run with Li-ion?  To me that is the largest threat to their business. If another company, say BMW or Mercedes, had exclusive use of a much superior chemistry which was cheaper, could charge quicker, hold more charge, and last longer, it wouldn't matter much their cars aren't 100% as good as a Model S in some other minor aspects.  Tesla would become just another in a long line of promising new car companies that ultimately failed.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 08:42:59 AM
Just want to throw this out there -- I had a conversation with a friend who is in the clean tech space. Ultimately he is a Tesla bull (our conversation started because he was wearing a Tesla hat, and visited their production facility last week). That said, he laid out what he saw as the threats to their business.  The one that caught my attention was this:

Quote
New battery chemistries can come along which don't require the scale to reach these cost targets.  For example, last week I hosted a meeting at [undisclosed top 5 VC] with two of their partners, and 5 battery companies...these other companies are focused on the game changing chemistries, and not the incremental improvements that Lithium Ion provides.

He is a Chem E. by training and also an MBA. I guess the threat here would be a technology that comes out of the blue, which makes their Gigafactory obsolete. Still, I think commercializing one of those would take a long time by which Tesla may have already realized some return from their investment.

One additional positive he focused on was leveraging the Gigafactory for other uses, specifically backup power supplies. Just thought I'd pass it along FWIW.

The way I see it:

1) Tesla probably keeps as close tabs on battery tech as anyone else. They wouldn't be disadvantaged or caught off guard in a shift.

2) Better chemistries or not, you still need a certain amount of volume to make a mass-market car. A factory to make enough packs for 500,000 or 1 million cars is going to be big regardless of the chemistry. There's always going to be a need for scale and benefits that come from it.

3) Toyota is still selling hybrids based on NiHM chemistry and outselling its competition, some of whom are on lithium-ion. Tesla will have enough time to switch if there's a breakthrough. It won't be mass adopted instantly by the competition, and it probably won't utterly crush lithium ion at first (new techs need time to incrementally be polished for real-world applications).

4) Even if something comes out that truly revolutionizes batteries, I think that on the net it would be a good thing for Tesla, not a bad thing. Tesla's main competition is gas cars, not EVs. They'd lose money on some of their lithium-ion investments, but they'd immediately jump on the new thing and could now sell Teslas with 500 miles ranges for cheaper or whatever, and they'd still have the best car in the world to showcase that new better battery. It's not like GM, BMW and Nissan are held back from making better EVs than Tesla because they have inferior batteries... (in fact, Nissan's battery cells are custom-made for automotive applications while Tesla uses commodity 18650 cells, iirc).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 08:57:27 AM
Interesting.  Someone sent me this link the other day.  http://powerjapanplus.com/ (http://powerjapanplus.com/).

Every year there are many announcements of lab breakthroughs for batteries that are "so much better". Some are vaporware, or startups raising money, or scientists trying to get a new R&D grant, etc. Some might be real, but what matters is when they come on the market.. That can take a long time.

In any case, on this 'dual carbon battery': "Power Japan also claims that their battery has energy density comparable to state of the art lithium-ion, with manufacturing costs that are equal or lower." So not claiming a huge improvement there, and no real-world proof on the costs (things usually turn out more expensive than we expect, not cheaper).

As for faster charging, how fast the battery can take power isn't the only limiting factor. It's not like home charging will ever deliver 100+ kW required for such fast charging, and Tesla's superchargers can already deliver around 120 kW of juice iirc, so it's not like current batteries are that limited when it comes to what they can handle.

Maybe in a few years some new battery will handle 200kW at a charging station and people will save a few minutes charging when they take that long trip once a year, but definitely not a make-or-break situation. EVs are mostly charged overnight at home and are always full when you leave in the morning, all that matters is that they take less than a night to fully charge. Charging stations are definitely not as important as gas stations are for regular cars...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on May 20, 2014, 09:00:34 AM
And let's not forget that Lithium-ion doesn't mean a unique battery, it's rather a family, where you can find an incredible number of anode and cathode combination, designated under the generic Li-ion tag.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on May 20, 2014, 01:02:01 PM
What about the idea that Tesla doesn't really want to be a car company?

The real business is to become the defacto battery and charging infrastructure suplier to all other car companies.  The vehicles that Tesla creates today are simply a proof of concept.  Tesla battery is Android, Model S is Nexus, and BMW is Samsung to use a weak analogy.

This version of Tesla is much more appealing to me.

So be a commodity supplier of batteries and charging stations rather than a differentiated consumer business? Doesn't sound good to me. As good as the Tesla batteries and power electronics are, if you put them in a Camry, you couldn't sell it for 100k and it wouldn't get 99/100 in Consumer Reports... It's not what make people want to buy that car. If Tesla was a drivetrain/charging station supplier, it would have to compete mostly on price. Bad position to be in.

If you listen to what Musk has been saying, he got in the business because he believes that transportation needs to be electrified (it's one half of his vision of 'produce clean energy/run things on clean energy' -- SolarCity is the other side of the coin of Tesla, basically). At first he expected other car makers to do it, but when he saw that they weren't willing/able, he decided to do it himself.

So I'm sure Musk will do everything he can to catalyze the industry (he already supplies others, and his success is the best catalyst, creating followers), but now that he's making the best cars in the world, I doubt he'll just voluntarily stop doing that to make drivetrains and build charging stations for inferior EVs made by others... Tesla is an incredible brand that was built by taking huge risks, so why give that up or dilute it?

I believe that supplying others could be a big business, but they'll never stop making EVs as long as they don't go out of business.

Another way to put it: Batteries and charging stations are a competitive advantage for your product if they are better than the competition, but they're still only a small part of the overall product. But that's not where the business is. These things only store and provide energy, and other people can make decent batteries and charging stations. The real business is in the finished products; nobody else can make a Model S, have the whole package at that level of quality. It's like if Apple stopped making iPhones and became a supplier of A7 chips to others. Sure their stuff is better than the competition, but that's not where the real business is...

Gasoline is a commodity and at one point the person who controlled its supply was the richest person in the world.

Tesla could scale much faster if they licensed the guts to traditional manufacturers.  Supply batteries, charging infrastructure, and monitoring capabilities.  Let BMW and Mercedes fight it out over styling, branding, configuration, etc.

I don't really believe that Tesla is going this way, but it could. And for me it's more interesting than the vertically integrated approach.

The iPhone comparison is fine but there are counter examples.  It's like when IBM opened up the PC architecture and someone made a fortune providing chips for everyone else.  Intel's business model has a much longer track record of success than Apple's.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 01:13:09 PM
Gasoline is a commodity and at one point the person who controlled its supply was the richest person in the world.

I'm currently reading The Prize. Great book. You know how they got so rich, though, right? I don't think Tesla can have that level of control over the market today.

Quote
Tesla could scale much faster if they licensed the guts to traditional manufacturers.  Supply batteries, charging infrastructure, and monitoring capabilities.  Let BMW and Mercedes fight it out over styling, branding, configuration, etc.

They are already licensing. They are already doing what you're saying, and will no doubt sell batteries from the gigafactory to others. It would just be incredibly stupid to stop making cars, which is where most of the value is for them, since cars are a lot more differentiated and value-added than batteries and such. It's a lot harder for a competitor to replicate the Model S than to replicate a battery factory...

Quote
I don't really believe that Tesla is going this way, but it could. And for me it's more interesting than the vertically integrated approach.

If by 'more interesting' you mean 'less interesting', then I agree ;)

Quote
The iPhone comparison is fine but there are counter examples.  It's like when IBM opened up the PC architecture and someone made a fortune providing chips for everyone else.  Intel's business model has a much longer track record of success than Apple's.

If Tesla stopped making cars, it would be IBM in that example, not Intel. It would be giving an important part of its value chain to competitors through a strategic mistake.

Apple's a lot more successful than Intel these days. For most of Intel's big run, PCs were not really sold as consumer products, but rather as beige boxes sold on price and performance, mostly to businesses. Cars will never be beige boxes sold purely on price (except maybe those sold to fleets), so that parallel doesn't work.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on May 20, 2014, 01:59:34 PM
Here is the real issue. Val9000 is a value investor, and value investors like unsexy firms in boring, mature industries. So it follows that his recommendation is to turn "I'm too sexy" Tesla into a parts supplier.  ;D

*runs away*
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on May 20, 2014, 02:38:09 PM
We can disagree on this stuff.

Interesting and sexy are two different things.  You guys are just too easily seduced by what is sexy :P
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 03:38:38 PM
You guys are just too easily seduced by what is sexy :P

Seduced? I never owned a share of Tesla, I think it's probably pretty overvalued. But the stock and the company are two different things. I think I understand the company pretty well. You're the one saying that the best car maker in the world should stop making cars; maybe you are seduced by a certain business model and are trying to force it into places where it doesn't make sense?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: VAL9000 on May 20, 2014, 04:44:09 PM
You guys are just too easily seduced by what is sexy :P

Seduced? I never owned a share of Tesla, I think it's probably pretty overvalued. But the stock and the company are two different things. I think I understand the company pretty well. You're the one saying that the best car maker in the world should stop making cars; maybe you are seduced by a certain business model and are trying to force it into places where it doesn't make sense?

Easy killer - that was a light-hearted joke more intended for Palantir. 

I am exploring an idea for a different model.  Tesla has done very well, but businesses evolve in different ways all the time.  It makes perfect sense to me that they might go the fuel infrastructure route.  So does the current model.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 20, 2014, 06:14:38 PM
Easy killer - that was a light-hearted joke more intended for Palantir. 

I wrote that totally calmly. No killer here. I just didn't like the sub-text of  "you write this because you've been seduced, not because you've thought it through".

But if that's not what you meant and it wasn't directed at me, apologies. That's the problem with the ambiguities of text.

Quote
I am exploring an idea for a different model.  Tesla has done very well, but businesses evolve in different ways all the time.

That's awesome. I'm just telling you what I think of it and why. Isn't that a discussion?

Quote
It makes perfect sense to me that they might go the fuel infrastructure route.  So does the current model.

To me it sounds like saying that the original iPhone was a proof of concept and that Apple should then have stopped making it and become a supplier of parts to the smartphone industry, mostly focusing on phone chargers and batteries.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on May 24, 2014, 11:09:27 PM
If there is a very severe power outage for a few days (can happen in parts of Canada) -- how would Teslas get charge?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 25, 2014, 05:22:20 AM
If there is a very severe power outage for a few days (can happen in parts of Canada) -- how would Teslas get charge?

How would anything electric work? If you live somewhere where that happens with enough frequency, you probably have a diesel generator  (or even better, solar panels).

But if it's just your home/neighborhood that loses power, you can always go charge at a public charging station/Supercharger Station/a friend's house/a mall with electric car stations/whatever. Here some grocery stores and dollar stores have started getting electric car charging stations, they'll be everywhere soon.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jeffmori7 on May 25, 2014, 05:53:55 AM
If there is a very severe power outage for a few days (can happen in parts of Canada) -- how would Teslas get charge?

How would anything electric work? If you live somewhere where that happens with enough frequency, you probably have a diesel generator  (or even better, solar panels).

But if it's just your home/neighborhood that loses power, you can always go charge at a public charging station/Supercharger Station/a friend's house/a mall with electric car stations/whatever. Here some grocery stores and dollar stores have started getting electric car charging stations, they'll be everywhere soon.

And we could also say that if there were a severe outage, using your electric vehicle wouldn't necessary be a priority. And that could also be part of the solution, providing energy stored in all the batteries to the important equipment.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on May 25, 2014, 08:49:37 AM
power outage could happen - for example after a hurricane -  and after that people need to drive to get to places -

All I am trying to think is that's perhaps one obstacle in making  electric vehicles as competitive as gasoline...   we know how to store gasoline at home  - but not many of us know how to store electricity.   this question would probably surface some point down the road.

it really comes down to the infrastructure - chicken& egg question....    it is coming i think...  Gary
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 25, 2014, 09:32:18 AM
power outage could happen - for example after a hurricane -  and after that people need to drive to get to places -

All I am trying to think is that's perhaps one obstacle in making  electric vehicles as competitive as gasoline...   we know how to store gasoline at home  - but not many of us know how to store electricity.   this question would probably surface some point down the road.

it really comes down to the infrastructure - chicken& egg question....    it is coming i think...  Gary

Most gasoline stations have pumps that work on electricity, as far as I know. There are all kinds of problems that have been solved for that infrastructure that will be solved for electric cars as they become more common and it becomes worth solving those problems on a larger scale, but I don't think that any of them is much bigger than the equivalent problem for gas/diesel cars.

Another way to think about it: There's a thousand ways to make electricity and in most places electricity is everywhere, but there aren't that many ways to make gasoline and apart from gas stations it isn't found around much. You are more vulnerable to supply shocks with a gas car than an electric car.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 25, 2014, 05:58:40 PM
Tesla CTO says they are breaking ground on Giga factory in next few weeks:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Tesla-CTO-on-Energy-Storage-We-Should-All-Be-Thinking-Bigger


The CTO spoke of attacking the battery's cost with the Giga factory by "doubling the worldwide capacity in a single factory and reinventing the supply chain." He said that Tesla would be "breaking ground in the next few weeks." A total of 35 gigawatt-hours of cell production from the new plant will be devoted to meeting the needs of the Fremont plant, and 15 gigawatt-hours will be devoted to stationary battery packs. Straubel said that Tesla was "bullish" about the California energy storage mandate. Straubel also said he was bullish that stationary energy storage "can scale faster than automotive."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on May 28, 2014, 10:18:25 AM
S&P Throws Tesla's Surging Shares on the Junk Heap


http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 28, 2014, 10:29:34 AM
S&P Throws Tesla's Surging Shares on the Junk Heap


http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls)

So S&P puts them above Sears, the supposedly unkillable forum darling. Not bad ;)

Quote
“We believe there is considerable uncertainty in Tesla’s long-term prospects and believe that the company is less likely (compared to larger, more established automakers) to successfully adapt to competitive and technological displacement risks over the medium to long term,” S&P analysts wrote.

How laughable is that? In the time it takes an established player to do a model refresh on an existing vehicle, Tesla has basically built a whole supply chain, factory, and ground-breaking vehicle from the ground up, getting the best reviews of any car ever, along with a network of charging stations, service points, and company owned stores on 3 continents. Oh, and their brand is now highly respected and there's huge pent-up demand just waiting for a more affordable model, and they did all that going through the worst financial crisis in generations, surviving what made 2 US car makers go bankrupt. Meanwhile, they were working on plans to double world lithium-ion battery production with one factory. And that's while top management was spending 50% of its time building space rockets going to the ISS and attempting full reusability with vertical landing.

But they're less likely to "adapt" than established automakers..? Heh.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 28, 2014, 10:48:35 AM
S&P Throws Tesla's Surging Shares on the Junk Heap


http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls)

So S&P puts them above Sears, the supposedly unkillable forum darling. Not bad ;)

Quote
“We believe there is considerable uncertainty in Tesla’s long-term prospects and believe that the company is less likely (compared to larger, more established automakers) to successfully adapt to competitive and technological displacement risks over the medium to long term,” S&P analysts wrote.

How laughable is that? In the time it takes an established player to do a model refresh on an existing vehicle, Tesla has basically built a whole supply chain, factory, and ground-breaking vehicle from the ground up, getting the best reviews of any car ever, along with a network of charging stations, service points, and company owned stores on 3 continents. Oh, and their brand is now highly respected and there's huge pent-up demand just waiting for a more affordable model, and they did all that going through the worst financial crisis in generations, surviving what made 2 US car makers go bankrupt, and they were working on plans to double world lithium-ion battery production with one factory. And that's while top management was spending 50% of its time building space rockets going to the ISS and attempting full reusability with vertical landing.

But they're less likely to "adapt" than established automakers..? Heh.

How many grains of salt should S&P ratings be taken with?
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/%3FassetID%3D1245199028707 (http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/%3FassetID%3D1245199028707)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: deadspace on May 28, 2014, 10:50:22 AM
Tesla CTO says they are breaking ground on Giga factory in next few weeks:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Tesla-CTO-on-Energy-Storage-We-Should-All-Be-Thinking-Bigger


The CTO spoke of attacking the battery's cost with the Giga factory by "doubling the worldwide capacity in a single factory and reinventing the supply chain." He said that Tesla would be "breaking ground in the next few weeks." A total of 35 gigawatt-hours of cell production from the new plant will be devoted to meeting the needs of the Fremont plant, and 15 gigawatt-hours will be devoted to stationary battery packs. Straubel said that Tesla was "bullish" about the California energy storage mandate. Straubel also said he was bullish that stationary energy storage "can scale faster than automotive."

How are they paying for this.  bYD had to dilute investors with a stock offering this week to increase their capacity by a few gigawatt hours.  These guys are going to 35 gigawatt hours which is more than the entire planets capacity of 27 gigawatt hours without any apparent need to capital.  This is like magic ?!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: no_free_lunch on May 28, 2014, 11:19:40 AM
Quote
The luxury electric-car maker announced yesterday that it’s selling at least $1.6 billion of convertible notes to finance the project and exploring locations in Texas, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico for a 10 million-square-foot facility. Tesla declined to comment on whether any negotiations had begun.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/tesla-plans-1-6-billion-note-offering-to-fund-gigafactory.html

I think the remainder will come from partners.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on May 28, 2014, 11:32:32 AM
S&P Throws Tesla's Surging Shares on the Junk Heap


http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-28/s-and-p-throws-teslas-surging-shares-on-the-junk-heap#r=hpt-ls)

So S&P puts them above Sears, the supposedly unkillable forum darling. Not bad ;)

Quote
“We believe there is considerable uncertainty in Tesla’s long-term prospects and believe that the company is less likely (compared to larger, more established automakers) to successfully adapt to competitive and technological displacement risks over the medium to long term,” S&P analysts wrote.

How laughable is that? In the time it takes an established player to do a model refresh on an existing vehicle, Tesla has basically built a whole supply chain, factory, and ground-breaking vehicle from the ground up, getting the best reviews of any car ever, along with a network of charging stations, service points, and company owned stores on 3 continents. Oh, and their brand is now highly respected and there's huge pent-up demand just waiting for a more affordable model, and they did all that going through the worst financial crisis in generations, surviving what made 2 US car makers go bankrupt, and they were working on plans to double world lithium-ion battery production with one factory. And that's while top management was spending 50% of its time building space rockets going to the ISS and attempting full reusability with vertical landing.

But they're less likely to "adapt" than established automakers..? Heh.

How many grains of salt should S&P ratings be taken with?
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/%3FassetID%3D1245199028707 (http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/%3FassetID%3D1245199028707)
Well I would say results would be standard to poor if you really follow their advice.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Spekulatius on May 28, 2014, 10:42:45 PM
S&P credit rating is rating the security of the bonds, not the upside for the equity. Those two a very different things. TSLA has significant risk in terms of execution and a substantial debt load (~2B$ although they have an equally substantial cash hoard). One single thing (Gigafactory) going wrong could derail this thing. While they have shown strong execution in the past let's not forget that they are still loosing money.

Something like GM may not have TSLA growth and upside with the equity, but I would rather own GM bonds than TSLA bonds just to name one example.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 29, 2014, 06:41:21 AM
S&P credit rating is rating the security of the bonds, not the upside for the equity. Those two a very different things. TSLA has significant risk in terms of execution and a substantial debt load (~2B$ although they have an equally substantial cash hoard). One single thing (Gigafactory) going wrong could derail this thing. While they have shown strong execution in the past let's not forget that they are still loosing money.

Something like GM may not have TSLA growth and upside with the equity, but I would rather own GM bonds than TSLA bonds just to name one example.

This is true.  While it is possible that a number of bad events could send TSLA into bankruptcy , GM (which should be bankrupt already) is effectively backed by the US government and can take any risks it wants without worry.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 03, 2014, 12:40:38 PM
Tesla's Musk says company won't decide on Gigafactory site til year's end

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101694146 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101694146)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 06, 2014, 07:55:03 AM
As a follow up to the discussion about battery breakthroughs and something obsoleting the Gigafactory, from the shareholder meeting:

Quote
Q. What about the threat of a surprise battery breakthrough from a mad scientist somewhere?

A. “There are potential breakthroughs out there, but we have yet to see one — to see even a single example in our lab — of a cell working at the laboratory level, that is better than the one that we have or the ones that we expect to come out with. And so, my response always, when I hear about, um, electro-chemical breakthroughs, is, ‘Please send us a sample cell.’ That usually, well that always, has resulted in nothing coming.”

Q. How quickly could the Gigafactory be re-tooled for new battery composition if needed?

A. “It would be fairly straightforward for us to change the anode or cathode composition. In fact, we expect to evolve the anode and cathode. It’s not merely, ‘What if that happens.’ We expect that to happen.”
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 12, 2014, 10:28:08 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: SmallCap on June 18, 2014, 12:11:54 PM
Morgan Stanley On Tesla: 'Whoa'

"Not even two years after the delivery of the first Model S, Tesla Motors has transformed from fledgling start-up to arguably the most important car company in the world. We are not joking."

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-teslawhoa-2014-6
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on July 07, 2014, 08:25:07 AM
We're still at the point where every time someone crashes a Model S it makes the news.  This sounds like a bad one ("collided with several vehicles in West Hollywood and split the car into two parts when he crashed into a lightpole, triggering a battery fire, according to police reports"), yet still no fatalities.

Tesla Eager to Study Stolen Model S Split in Fiery Crash (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-06/tesla-eager-to-study-stolen-model-s-split-burned-in-fiery-crash.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 07, 2014, 10:45:42 PM
Tesla’s China Exports to Be Quarterly Bright Spot, Barclays Says


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-07/tesla-s-china-sales-to-be-quarterly-bright-spot-barclays-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-07/tesla-s-china-sales-to-be-quarterly-bright-spot-barclays-says.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 10, 2014, 01:29:16 PM
Stolen Tesla’s Fatality-Free L.A. Crash Surprises Experts



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/stolen-tesla-s-fatality-free-l-a-crash-surprises-experts.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/stolen-tesla-s-fatality-free-l-a-crash-surprises-experts.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on July 10, 2014, 03:54:21 PM
Stolen Tesla’s Fatality-Free L.A. Crash Surprises Experts



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/stolen-tesla-s-fatality-free-l-a-crash-surprises-experts.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/stolen-tesla-s-fatality-free-l-a-crash-surprises-experts.html)

He died.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/driver-of-stolen-tesla-dies-after-crash-in-los-angeles.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-10/driver-of-stolen-tesla-dies-after-crash-in-los-angeles.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on July 14, 2014, 07:49:03 AM
Question for the board, and maybe this one is for ERICOPOLY since he's an owner. If in a few years owners sense that their battery has run its course and its performance is waning -- what systems are in place, if any, to prevent an owner from pulling up to a Supercharging station, and paying for a $70 battery swap? Will TSLA be able to track who swapped the battery and if it was defective? Otherwise, seems like a pretty nice way to upgrade to a better battery, or -- even less insidious, seems like a good way for TSLA owners to get around the anxiety of owning a vehicle whose battery needs to be eventually replaced...just do a swap twice a year...it's like getting your oil changed, but you're hedged against obsolescence. The question is...who holds the bag on the bad batteries?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 14, 2014, 08:00:10 AM
Question for the board, and maybe this one is for ERICOPOLY since he's an owner. If in a few years owners sense that their battery has run its course and its performance is waning -- what systems are in place, if any, to prevent an owner from pulling up to a Supercharging station, and paying for a $70 battery swap? Will TSLA be able to track who swapped the battery and if it was defective? Otherwise, seems like a pretty nice way to upgrade to a better battery, or -- even less insidious, seems like a good way for TSLA owners to get around the anxiety of owning a vehicle whose battery needs to be eventually replaced...just do a swap twice a year...it's like getting your oil changed, but you're hedged against obsolescence. The question is...who holds the bag on the bad batteries?

From memory, they said that if you don't come back to pick up your original battery after a certain amount of time, you'll get invoiced for the new battery. They know exactly which Tesla gets which battery pack.

A couple other things to consider: By the time some of the current crop of batteries need replacement, new batteries will be a lot less expensive, and probably last quite a bit longer too. But I suspect that for many, batteries holding just 90% or 80% of what they used to hold won't be a big deal; gasoline cars also get less efficient with age, so you can't drive as far on a tank of gas. This hasn't caused a big uproar. I think most Tesla owners will probably keep the same battery for the life of the vehicle. Good power management can make batteries last quite a long time. There are some 10-year-old hybrids used as taxis that have hundreds of thousands of miles and are still going strong with old battery tech compared to a Tesla.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on July 14, 2014, 09:23:42 AM
Yeah -- I think the durability of the batteries may surprise to the upside. I have a friend who is an economist which specializes in alternative energy and vehicles at U Chicago, and he's mentioned the Prius taxis with hundreds of thousands of miles that Toyota has repurchased to study -- a lot less degradation than originally thought.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: tripleoptician on July 14, 2014, 08:11:00 PM
As an owner I would think most owners don't have anxiety about battery life. When you compare the maintenance gas cost / year of an ICE vehicle, the replacement battery will pay for itself within 2-3 years and then provide several more years of low maintenance cost if keeping the same Tesla beyond 10 years.
For example, to drive 20,000 km /yr will cost $300/yr for my Tesla electricity cost vs. $5000/yr for gas in my ICE. (Disregarding ongoing maintenance cost differences) There is huge speculation on what replacement cost will be in 8-10 yrs ($10-40,000) but I would certainly take the bet that in that timeframe, battery costs are down and fuel costs have gone up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on July 14, 2014, 09:04:54 PM
I bought the 85 kWh battery for two reasons:

1)  harder acceleration
2)  more range than I currently need

Eight years from now, let's say my 260 miles of range has dropped to 200 miles (they estimate 20% degradation after 8 years).  It's still going to be an awesome car for what I need living here in Santa Barbara.

However, if you start out with a Nissan Leaf you get only 80 miles from day one.  After eight years if it degrades by 20% you only have 64 miles.  So I could see a Leaf owner feeling that it was a mistake to have a car that can only travel 64 miles and would need a new battery at that point, but I think I can live with a 200 mile range.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 16, 2014, 09:27:10 AM
Tesla's Entry-Level Car to Be Called the Model III

Car Is Centerpiece of Tesla's strategy to Move from a Luxury Player to a Mass-Market Electric Vehicle Seller


http://online.wsj.com/articles/teslas-entry-level-car-to-be-called-the-model-iii-1405520969?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection (http://online.wsj.com/articles/teslas-entry-level-car-to-be-called-the-model-iii-1405520969?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection)


The lower-cost electric car, which the company aims to price at $35,000 and offer 200 miles of electric range, is the centerpiece of Tesla's strategy to move from a luxury player to a mass-market electric vehicle seller.
 
...


Tesla is due to release its second vehicle, the Model X, in early 2015. That vehicle will be an all-wheel-drive sport-utility with falcon-wing doors.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: PLynchJr on July 16, 2014, 10:52:43 AM
Sign me up for a Model III.  Can't wait to see it.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on July 16, 2014, 11:38:45 AM
Sign me up for a Model III.  Can't wait to see it.

+1,  I've never spent anywhere near $35K on a car (I'm not a car person. I like driving,  I just hate spending money on cars), but I'm going to have a serious look at the MIII when it comes out. My 2007 Hyundai will be 10 years old by then, perfect timing.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 25, 2014, 09:15:32 AM
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/07/25/elon-musk-on-the-colbert-report-last-night-vs-2010/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 31, 2014, 01:36:31 PM
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3368904070x0x772849/0cdad2cf-0497-41a3-ad2a-788f57412777/Tesla%20Q2'14%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf

Quote
In addition, we are adding new production capacity at our Fremont factory that will allow us to meet the growing
worldwide demand for our vehicles. The speed at which we are executing this capacity upgrade will allow us to exceed
35,000 Model S deliveries this year. Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks,
Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on July 31, 2014, 02:00:56 PM
The speed at which we are executing this capacity upgrade will allow us to exceed
35,000 Model S deliveries this year. Provided that we execute well and there are no serious macroeconomic shocks,
Tesla’s annualized delivery rate should exceed 100,000 units by the end of next year.



Get that $1,000 bucks ready!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on July 31, 2014, 02:17:31 PM
It was $100. But yes, it is most definitely ready and will be a small addition to my existing TSLA losses.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on July 31, 2014, 02:18:17 PM
Curious, who actually owns TSLA? 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on July 31, 2014, 03:04:37 PM
Curious, who actually owns TSLA?

I own it and have never caught so much crap from value investors over it.  I ended up buying way more than I should have as a result (always funny to be contrarian to contrarians).  The stock seems like a hybrid of Amazon and Google.  The company IPO'd during a terrible time in 2010 similar to Google having an IPO after the bust and the lack of profits leaves everyone short or hating the stock like Amazon.  Knowing the history of that, I have no idea why someone would short Tesla on market psychology alone.  There are so many better shorts out there....

JB Straubel had a pretty compelling talk at Stanford regarding their roadmap to 800k in vehicle sales by 2018 or so.  Even at 800k/year they are looking at less than 1% market share for a company whose mission is to have half the market using electric.  There is a chance it doesn't work out, but if it does work out I suspect the returns compensate for a lot of the risk.  Elon has been pretty damn good about delivering on his promises.

I got to about $100 a share on Model S/Roadster sales alone and the rest of the business seems like a free option if you could purchase under $100.  That said they could leverage, mismamage costs and blow up on some new models so that free option might not really exist if they cannot handle the growth phase. 

From what I have researched, that is a primary people who short Tesla have an incredibly low price target of $15-30 in which case it would be better to play the options since that is a binary event.  I plan to hold my shares a very long time as long as the majority of my thesis holds up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on July 31, 2014, 03:30:41 PM
Tesla does not make a profit servicing it's cars -- it does so at cost.  There is also less to service in the first place with electric cars.

Traditional dealerships would therefore never want to sell a Tesla, unless Tesla cut them a really fat commission on sale.  That would make the sticker price too high on the sale for an already-very-expensive car.

So how will BMW build and sell all-electric "Tesla killers"?

Will they sell them directly, undercutting their dealerships?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on July 31, 2014, 08:43:35 PM
This of course can only be done if you service the cars directly -- rather than have independently owned dealerships doing the servicing:


Eventually a Tesla service team will be able to pick up your car (maybe while you're at work), service it, and return it to you that same day. The plan is for an entire pit crew team to work on the car at the same time.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/31/autos/tesla-service-elves/index.html?iid=HP_LN
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on August 01, 2014, 06:24:57 AM
Tesla does not make a profit servicing it's cars -- it does so at cost.  There is also less to service in the first place with electric cars.

Traditional dealerships would therefore never want to sell a Tesla, unless Tesla cut them a really fat commission on sale.  That would make the sticker price too high on the sale for an already-very-expensive car.

So how will BMW build and sell all-electric "Tesla killers"?

Will they sell them directly, undercutting their dealerships?

The other issue is state laws.  Can they even do this?   Tesla gets away with it because they do not have dealerships.  Would the states even let BMW sell outside their dealerships?  I think to truly compete with Tesla a company would have to go full in with the direct to customer model the way Tesla has.  Which would not be easy if you were still selling gas vehicles.  I have a feeling Tesla has this market pretty much to itself for a while.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 01, 2014, 12:35:42 PM

Tesla: room to vroom?
 

How long can the electric carmaker’s show stay on the road?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/c401947c-1911-11e4-80da-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz394gNJ8E6 (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/c401947c-1911-11e4-80da-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz394gNJ8E6)


 
All systems go. Car deliveries are up a sixth from the previous quarter. A partner, Panasonic, has been found to help build a $4bn battery factory. Shareholders are enjoying the ride: the stock is up 50 per cent this year.
 
But how long can Tesla’s show stay on the road? The electric carmaker has been pouring money into research, building service stations and production lines – not to mention the Gigafactory. Capital expenditure tripled in the second quarter from a year earlier. On Thursday, Tesla raised this year’s capex guidance by an eighth to $850m. At 20 per cent of revenues, that level of capex is almost unparalleled in the motor industry: Jaguar spends 12 per cent, GM a mere 6 per cent.

 
Investing heavily in the early stages of a high-growth business makes sense, of course. (Revenues were up 55 per cent in the second quarter; profits, to all intents and purposes, are basically zero.) But even beyond these heady, high-growth days, Tesla’s business model is inherently expensive. The company maintains its own service centres for repairs: it plans to have 300 worldwide by the end of next year, from 75 today. It also has a rapidly growing network of charging stations – and provides free charging for Tesla vehicles.

Success will ultimately come down to one factor: mass-market demand for electric cars. Elon Musk, chief executive, says supply is the only limiting factor for Tesla’s sales, and points to growing waiting times for the Model S sedan. Tesla’s share price (which, at $225, implies an enterprise value seven times revenues) assumes the company will make the leap from its niche of elite buyers to genuine scale. Its success thus far has involved a tiny slice of the market: the company sold 7,579 cars last quarter. GM sold 100 times that many vehicles in the same period in the US alone. The Model S has a luxury price tag (about $70,000 in the US). A mass-market car would need to be half of that.

However, producing a cheaper vehicle with a powerful battery is a risky proposal: no one has done it yet. There is also little cushion if the company – or the global economy – takes a wrong turn. The company was cash-flow negative in the past quarter, and its debt has a junk credit rating from Standard & Poor’s because of “uncertainty” about its long-term prospects. Tesla is, if not exactly stepping on the gas, then charging ahead. But the road ahead is far from smooth.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on August 01, 2014, 01:00:27 PM
It's also worth thinking about how their working capital requirements are going to grow while ramping production. They had half-a-billion $$ in inventory. I know some of those are vehicles in transit, etc, but that's only going to get bigger as they grow production to 100k vehicles per year.  By my (rough, rough) estimates, they could earn $1bn in 2016.

Additionally, they will need to raise some capital for gigafactory. Wonder if they can do straight debt at this point, or maybe do a real estate loan tied to the facility? Will be interesting to see which path they take.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 01, 2014, 01:03:37 PM
Additionally, they will need to raise some capital for gigafactory. Wonder if they can do straight debt at this point, or maybe do a real estate loan tied to the facility? Will be interesting to see which path they take.

Unless I'm misremembering, they've already raised what they want to put in the Gigafactory and the rest should come from partners.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 01, 2014, 01:10:05 PM
It's also worth thinking about how their working capital requirements are going to grow while ramping production. They had half-a-billion $$ in inventory. I know some of those are vehicles in transit, etc, but that's only going to get bigger as they grow production to 100k vehicles per year.  By my (rough, rough) estimates, they could earn $1bn in 2016.

Additionally, they will need to raise some capital for gigafactory. Wonder if they can do straight debt at this point, or maybe do a real estate loan tied to the facility? Will be interesting to see which path they take.

Vehicles in transit are already purchased.  Built to order.  Plus, they have pre-order float from ModelX reservations.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 06, 2014, 07:32:18 AM
http://fortune.com/2014/08/01/teslas-musk-were-not-currently-showing-all-of-our-cards/

“People have gotten used to us showing all of our cards,” Musk said. Then he paused. “We’re not currently showing all of our cards.”

Piling into the intrigue, he later added: “Our cap ex and R&D numbers are better than they appear because there are things you don’t know about.”
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Phaceliacapital on August 06, 2014, 07:49:55 AM
He's making the jetpack Colbert asked for, yes and yes!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 06, 2014, 07:55:52 AM
Joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX: Rocket-powered cars.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 06, 2014, 08:01:01 AM
Electric bicycles so that TSLA short sellers will still be able to afford some mode of electric transportation. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on August 06, 2014, 08:04:14 AM
Joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX: Rocket-powered cars.

Joint venture between Tesla, Solar City, and SpaceX: Cars with solar panel bodies that you can drive indefinitely (during the day) and only need to use the battery at night.  Of course you can also extract the wings and fire up the rocket to travel long distances quickly.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 06, 2014, 08:14:32 AM
Electric bicycles so that TSLA short sellers will still be able to afford some mode of electric transportation.

ROFL
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 07:28:44 AM
GM vehicles have power windows that catch fire:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/gm-issues-third-recall-for-suvs-that-can-catch-fire-1407506304?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Auto Maker Tells Customers to Park Vehicles Outside Until Window Switch Repaired
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on August 08, 2014, 07:56:39 AM
Hi Eric... I have to say so far we are not impressed by Tesla's customer service... my fiance has been trying to book a test drive... there's a store in Vancouver, but they want us to call their headquarters to book.... and they don't want to direct us to the Vancouver store for booking a test drive directly with them!   My gf is too cheap to call internationally to the headquarters so she wrote them back (via email requesting them to call when she can be waiting at her cell phone or just get the Vancouver folks to call)...  and now Tesla has completely stopped communicating with her!  Looks like we might go with a diesel car when my civic retires......
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 08:01:07 AM
Hi Eric... I have to say so far we are not impressed by Tesla's customer service... my fiance has been trying to book a test drive... there's a store in Vancouver, but they want us to call their headquarters to book.... and they don't want to direct us to the Vancouver store for booking a test drive directly with them!   My gf is too cheap to call internationally to the headquarters so she wrote them back (via email requesting them to call when she can be waiting at her cell phone or just get the Vancouver folks to call)...  and now Tesla has completely stopped communicating with her!  Looks like we might go with a diesel car when my civic retires......

You could go with BYD.

Their receptionist is in China.  I tried calling their only US listed number (in LA) but they only had an answering machine.  So I left a message and they never called me back.

Whereas Tesla came out to my house and fixed an issue with my glove box latch -- for no charge!  I wonder if BYD would do that.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on August 08, 2014, 08:08:13 AM
Perhaps living in California helps.  We like Tesla....

Did you look at the i3 from BMW?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 08, 2014, 08:09:27 AM
Hi Eric... I have to say so far we are not impressed by Tesla's customer service... my fiance has been trying to book a test drive... there's a store in Vancouver, but they want us to call their headquarters to book.... and they don't want to direct us to the Vancouver store for booking a test drive directly with them!   My gf is too cheap to call internationally to the headquarters so she wrote them back (via email requesting them to call when she can be waiting at her cell phone or just get the Vancouver folks to call)...  and now Tesla has completely stopped communicating with her!  Looks like we might go with a diesel car when my civic retires......


Tesla is currently supply constrained and has waiting lists. It's a seller's market for them, people are beating a path to their front door. So having to make a call isn't exactly high friction compared to the car salesman experience at most other brand's dealerships...

And maybe the fact that you were not willing to make a long-distance call kind of signalled to them that you weren't serious about wanting to buy a $75k+ car? How many calls do you think they get for test drives from people who just want a fun ride and won't buy?

But that doesn't mean that service would be bad if you bought the car. All I've heard about service to Tesla owners has been great, top of class, and they're rapidly adding new service points and Supercharger stations all around.

IMO a diesel car isn't even in the same century as the Model S. Your loss.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 08:30:26 AM
Perhaps living in California helps.  We like Tesla....

Did you look at the i3 from BMW?

No, I wanted a car that goes to 60 MPH in 4.2 seconds.

I also wanted an electric car.  i3 is a hybrid.

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/517936/why-bmws-i3-electric-car-is-really-a-plug-in-hybrid/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 09:19:50 AM
Back when I bought my Tesla, the fastest charge time for gaining 50% charge was 30 minutes.  Today, they've got it down to 20 minutes.

Forget 50% in 20 minutes, they aim to eventually hit 100% charge in just 10 minutes.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516876/forget-battery-swapping-tesla-aims-to-charge-electric-cars-in-five-minutes/

At that point, you'll be spending an extra 4 minutes charging (vs pumping gas) on those long road trips out of town.  The rest of the year, you'll never pull over to charge (it charges at night while you sleep).  Compare that to having to go to the gas station every week -- you won't be able to rationalize that weekly hassle against the 4 minute savings you achieve pumping gas on long road trips. 

When will BMW build their gigafactory?  Or will they (and the rest of the automakers) purchase battery packs from Tesla?  Will this be the last gigafactory that Tesla builds?

There is a good reason why it would make more sense to purchase the battery packs from Tesla:

Straubel says Tesla has been able to rapidly improve charging because it designs and builds all of the key components itself, including the chargers, the electronics for monitoring the battery pack, and a cooling system for the battery. They’re all optimized to work together in a way that’s not easy for systems built to accommodate many different models of electric vehicles.

One challenge of fast charging is that delivering power to a battery very rapidly can cause it to overheat. To avoid damaging the battery, the outside charger needs to communicate with the electronics that monitor the state of the batteries, including their voltage and temperature, and quickly adjust charging rates accordingly. “To do that kind of charging, everything has to be designed and working in perfect synchrony,” Straubel says.

Achieving five-minute charges will require not only further improving the charging system, but also improving the interface with the electrical grid. As it is, only some places on the grid can handle 120-kilowatt charging. Drawing large amounts of power from the grid also incurs demand charges from the utility, increasing the cost of the system.

But Straubel says that Tesla plans to get around these problems by equipping supercharging stations with solar panels and batteries.

Storing solar power in batteries in the charging station could also be helpful to operators of the power grid (see “Wind Turbines, Battery Included, Can Keep Power Supplies Stable”). They could provide utilities a way to moderate fluctuations on the grid, something that’s becoming more important as more intermittent sources of power, such as solar and wind, are added. Tesla plans to test such a system soon in California. It could charge utilities for this service, which, Straubel says, could help offset the cost of the stations.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on August 08, 2014, 09:37:59 AM
our main thing is we don't mind spedning a bit more on a entry level Tesla if (a) it's good for the environment (check)
(b) we cut down on maintenance costs (????)
c) the vehicle can last 10 - 15 years  - i see no reason why not if it's rated #1 by Consumer Report.
(d) large capacity in terms of seating
(e) I heard it's got free Internet for Canada and US (including roaming) - is this true?

Thanks
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 09:41:36 AM
our main thing is we don't mind spedning a bit more on a entry level Tesla if (a) it's good for the environment (check)
(b) we cut down on maintenance costs (????)
c) the vehicle can last 10 - 15 years  - i see no reason why not if it's rated #1 by Consumer Report.
(d) large capacity in terms of seating
(e) I heard it's got free Internet for Canada and US (including roaming) - is this true?

Thanks

http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/tesla-announces-free-data-connectivity-and-internet-radio-four-years
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 08, 2014, 09:49:16 AM
When will BMW build their gigafactory?  Or will they (and the rest of the automakers) purchase battery packs from Tesla?  Will this be the last gigafactory that Tesla builds?

All other automakers are kind of between a rock and a hard place when it comes to electric cars. To properly make them, they can't keep using most of their legacy manufacturing equipment, and to properly sell them, they have to explain why they are superior to gasoline/diesel vehicles (their main products). They're also stuck with dealers who make most of their money on maintenance, something that goes away in good part with EVs.

That explains why they all kind of do a half-assed job, limit production to relatively small batches, or make EVs/plug-ins that are pretty conventional technically (small electric range, not much use of lightweight materials, etc) and look kind of niche (why wouldn't Nissan sell an electric Altima? or BMW an electric 3 or 5?). They want the PR halo effect from making these cars, but they don't want to cannibalize their other sales.

Tesla is fighting against a bunch of people that have their hands tied behind their backs, basically.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 09:51:30 AM
When will BMW build their gigafactory?  Or will they (and the rest of the automakers) purchase battery packs from Tesla?  Will this be the last gigafactory that Tesla builds?

All other automakers are kind of between a rock and a hard place when it comes to electric cars. To properly make them, they can't keep using most of their legacy manufacturing equipment, and to properly sell them, they have to explain why they are superior to gasoline/diesel vehicles (their main products). They're also stuck with dealers who make most of their money on maintenance, something that goes away in good part with EVs.

That explains why they all kind of do a half-assed job, limit production to relatively small batches, or make EVs/plug-ins that are pretty conventional technically (small electric range, not much use of lightweight materials, etc) and look kind of niche (why wouldn't Nissan sell an electric Altima? or BMW an electric 3 or 5?). They want the PR halo effect from making these cars, but they don't want to cannibalize their other sales.

Tesla is fighting against a bunch of people that have their hands tied behind their backs, basically.

So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 08, 2014, 10:07:16 AM
So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest.

Here's GM's first all electric car since they crushed the EV1 over a decade ago:

(http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2014-chevrolet-spark-ev1.jpg)

$26,685 MSRP, 82 miles of driving range. I doubt it'll compete very well with Tesla's upcoming Model 3...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on August 08, 2014, 10:10:35 AM
So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest.

Here's GM's first all electric car since they crushed the EV1 over a decade ago:

(http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2014-chevrolet-spark-ev1.jpg)

$26,685 MSRP, 82 miles of driving range. I doubt it'll compete very well with Tesla's upcoming Model 3...

The GM design team must sit around and say.  "OK this is an electric car, we need to make it as small, cheap looking, and ugly as we possibly can."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 10:12:33 AM
So GM is a one-legged company in an ass-kicking contest.

Here's GM's first all electric car since they crushed the EV1 over a decade ago:

(http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2014-chevrolet-spark-ev1.jpg)

$26,685 MSRP, 82 miles of driving range. I doubt it'll compete very well with Tesla's upcoming Model 3...

The key part of that article is the bit about the coming improvements in the speed of charging (a full charge in 10 minutes) and the advantage Tesla has from controlling the battery cooling, the charger, etc....  you sort of have to be vertically integrated to get it right because they all must work together:

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/516876/forget-battery-swapping-tesla-aims-to-charge-electric-cars-in-five-minutes/


So Tesla vehicles will charge quickly and GM cars won't.  One legged man in a ass kicking contest.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 04:50:36 PM
One thing about shorting an incredibly successful disruptive company, is the stock price tends to get disruptive too.

Tesla X to devour premium SUV market: Morgan Stanley report


The value of Tesla stock, thus, should be about $320, well above its current $250, making Tesla "our top pick in US autos."

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-x-to-devour-suv-market-20140807-story.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 04:52:19 PM
Back in early 2013 I wrote on this board that while I didn't know how to value the company, I wouldn't dare short it either.  I think it was about $30 or so.

Thing is, I knew the Model S was going to do for autos what pantyhose did for women's apparel.  Remember the story about Peter Lynch buying a pantyhose stock?  Dammit!  I should have done something about it versus merely warning people not to short it.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 08, 2014, 05:33:26 PM
You still have time you know....I suspect a number of forum members will be justifying a Model 3 purchase in a few years.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 08, 2014, 05:42:59 PM
You still have time you know....I suspect a number of forum members will be justifying a Model 3 purchase in a few years.

I can't do it now because it's up 700%.

But it's going to be fun to watch the big one-legged automakers get their asses kicked in this ass-kicking contest.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: tombgrt on August 09, 2014, 02:29:57 AM
Back in early 2013 I wrote on this board that while I didn't know how to value the company, I wouldn't dare short it either.  I think it was about $30 or so.

Thing is, I knew the Model S was going to do for autos what pantyhose did for women's apparel.  Remember the story about Peter Lynch buying a pantyhose stock?  Dammit!  I should have done something about it versus merely warning people not to short it.

I remember those posts, definitely not simply hindsight bias. Purely based on what they could even produce in 2020, the market cap is ridiculously high right now. Based on the current year's 35,000 cars, it's almost $1M/car. But I know that thinking is somewhat flawed. Anyway, it's more likely than not that you get to buy TSLA somewhere in the next few years at a much cheaper valuation. Don't beat yourself up, in terms of technology, 2013 is ancient history. So much happened since then and the market noticed.

What price would you be willing to pay now? I feel like there are too many potential scenario's for after 2020 and recent successes might be clouding my judgement. On the other hand, at say a $10b valuation today this stock could be a home run in 10 years. Who knows!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 04:22:49 AM
I see, that's why then went with "Model 3":

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-model-3-20140716-story.html

Ford has the rights to "E".  Otherwise...

Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk once thought the electric car company’s lineup would spell out SEX. There would be the Model S sedan, the upcoming Model X sport-utility vehicle and later, the Model E, a smaller, less expensive vehicle for the masses.

Stymied by Ford Motor Co. – it has the rights to E – Musk is now going for Model 3 for the third car, he told the British automotive news website Auto Express.


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 05:12:11 AM
Their battery production facilities which enable knock-on scenarios.  I'm looking forward to having Tesla battery packs in RVs.  That would be unbelievably cool -- how about a huge Tesla battery pack in an RV!  No noisy generator to run.  So much fun.  We went house-boating on Lake Powell for a week this summer -- it was super-annoying to run the generator 7 hours a day and used up 25% of our fuel (thereby reducing our range).  Boats like that are the kind of thing where it would be nice to leave the marina with a fully charged 85 kWh battery pack.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 06:26:35 AM
What price would you be willing to pay now? I feel like there are too many potential scenario's for after 2020 and recent successes might be clouding my judgement. On the other hand, at say a $10b valuation today this stock could be a home run in 10 years. Who knows!

I still can't say if TSLA stock is incredibly expensive or not even today.  I mean, I don't personally have $30b lying under the mattress... yet... so I do respect the market cap.

A long-established company like BAC is much easier for me to value because I don't have to think as much about the future value of the growth.  I can justify today's price by looking at present earnings.

The day when people realize that gasoline cars are a huge hassle is not too far off.  People are having a lot of trouble seeing this, and so they think Tesla will be a niche company for too far out on the horizon.  However, I drive my Model S each day and realize how insanely f**** awesome the car is.  The electric drive has so much instant torque that you just bolt off the line in that thing -- it forces the blood into the back of your head.  People are going to need their head examined if they choose a gasoline car over an electric pretty soon here.  I've got three other cars, I need to get them smog tested every two years in California.  That smog requirement is going to happen in all states in 2017 (Federal rule).  It's such a pain in the butt to keep those cars around -- regular oil changes, servicing, etc...  Wasting time each week at the gas station.  They suck!  The 10 minute full charging time goal is going to turn heads as the company incrementally reaches it.

Look at the supercharger map today for Europe (click on the "Europe" tab) -- they didn't have a single charger a year ago:
http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger
move the slider over to 2014-2015 to see the planned locations

Okay, so now imagine what that map will look like five years from today as they gather more scale.

Tesla is going to own your $10 a gallon gas continent and Putin's going to feel it.

You guys hate SUVs because they are gas-guzzlers and your gas prices are high -- wait for the Model X.  You can get out of those cramped little cars.  Oh, and it goes 0-60 MPH in less than 5 seconds.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 09, 2014, 08:03:21 AM
I think their profits are going to be limited by their manufacturing capacity which might take years to roll out, which will require major capX in the future, and hence lots of opportunity to invest.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 09, 2014, 08:53:27 AM
I think their profits are going to be limited by their manufacturing capacity which might take years to roll out, which will require major capX in the future, and hence lots of opportunity to invest.

The fremont plant has at least 500k/year capacity (maybe more since they're probably more automated than average).

http://www.teslamotors.com/no_NO/forum/forums/tesla-double-its-production-fremont-plant
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 09, 2014, 09:01:12 AM
500k is not a lot compared to their peers, and remember that a lot of that will be Model 3 which will have lower margins and much higher demand.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 09, 2014, 10:24:04 AM
It's a lot compared to the 35k they'll make this year. You have to walk before you run.  Their peers are missing the boat long term.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 10:30:39 AM
500k is not a lot compared to their peers, and remember that a lot of that will be Model 3 which will have lower margins and much higher demand.

Porsche was bought by VW in 2012 for about $22b and still today is barely selling 150,000 cars annually.

Tesla's facility can make 500,000 cars a year, or roughly 4x more than Porsche was making back in 2012.  In theory, 500,000 Model S,X,etc... can be made there.  Maybe those are all high-margin cars like the S and the X, and they make the GenIII elsewhere?  Or perhaps they are making 250,000 high-margin cars by 2020, and they are only making 250,000 GenIII cars.  Why after all, would they sacrifice a high-margin slot in the production facility simply because they could build a low-margin car instead?

I expect them to be either building or planning to build a new facility by the time 2020 rolls around -- to prepare for their continued success selling low-margin GenIII cars, pickup trucks, 2-seat roadsters, etc....

On the other hand, if they are eating somebody else's lunch, perhaps they can purchase their factory on the cheap like they did with their Fremont facility.  Somebody is going to start showing excess capacity, however you are just taking a bite from each major automaker so perhaps nobody will be missing too many sales to justify closing a factory.

Oh, but you were talking about peers....  Wait, they have peers?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 09, 2014, 11:21:30 AM
^ True, very possible.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 12:59:25 PM
I think their profits are going to be limited by their manufacturing capacity which might take years to roll out, which will require major capX in the future, and hence lots of opportunity to invest.

The fremont plant has at least 500k/year capacity (maybe more since they're probably more automated than average).

http://www.teslamotors.com/no_NO/forum/forums/tesla-double-its-production-fremont-plant

I wonder how much easier (faster) it is to build an electric car vs such a complicated internal-combustion car.

Tesla is doing their own aluminum stamping at the Fremont facility, they also build the motors there.  Were the GM/Toyota guys doing similar work or was it mostly assembly?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Otsog on August 09, 2014, 07:12:22 PM
Can you sell electricity from your Tesla back to the grid?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 07:47:31 PM
Can you sell electricity from your Tesla back to the grid?

I only wish.  Voids the warranty.  Remember, supercharging is free for life... Free charge, sell back to grid... Repeat.

Plus, it would shorten battery life perhaps and might tarnish reputation of battery life for normal vehicle use,

But Tesla does supply residential battery packs to Solar City for same usage.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on August 09, 2014, 07:59:15 PM
I wonder if utilities could become good investments if we all start using electric cars....this is also very beneficial for telcos as these are going to be permanently connected to the internet....plus much like the computer boom, could be a huge boom for chipmakers...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 09, 2014, 08:15:10 PM
I wonder if utilities could become good investments if we all start using electric cars....this is also very beneficial for telcos as these are going to be permanently connected to the internet....plus much like the computer boom, could be a huge boom for chipmakers...

The big LCD screen TV boom of the past 15 year had a much bigger impact on the grid than the electric car transition, mostly because it happened faster and TVs are on during peak time while cars charge at night, and it wasn't that bad. I don't think it'll make too much of a difference on that front, especially as utilities become less profitable because a lot of their most profitable peak time sales get eaten up by solar power (look up what's going on in Australia lately for a preview of what might happen elsewhere).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Otsog on August 09, 2014, 10:44:13 PM
Can you sell electricity from your Tesla back to the grid?

I only wish.  Voids the warranty.  Remember, supercharging is free for life... Free charge, sell back to grid... Repeat.

Plus, it would shorten battery life perhaps and might tarnish reputation of battery life for normal vehicle use,

But Tesla does supply residential battery packs to Solar City for same usage.

I was thinking you could just make an app that would arbitrage the high demand and low demand periods. The more EVs the more temporary storage the grid has and the less worry there is about intermittent power sources. 

Not sure if it would be worth it with conversion loss and wear on the battery though.  I guess they are dealing with that exact issue with Solar City.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 09, 2014, 11:53:16 PM
Can you sell electricity from your Tesla back to the grid?

I only wish.  Voids the warranty.  Remember, supercharging is free for life... Free charge, sell back to grid... Repeat.

Plus, it would shorten battery life perhaps and might tarnish reputation of battery life for normal vehicle use,

But Tesla does supply residential battery packs to Solar City for same usage.

I was thinking you could just make an app that would arbitrage the high demand and low demand periods. The more EVs the more temporary storage the grid has and the less worry there is about intermittent power sources. 

Not sure if it would be worth it with conversion loss and wear on the battery though.  I guess they are dealing with that exact issue with Solar City.

I'm on time of use metering.  I have  my Tesla plugged in, programmed to begin charging at 12 am.  I pay 9 cents per kWh between 12 am and 6 am.  Then I pay about 31 cents between 6 am and 10 am, then it goes to 47 cents between 10 am and 6 pm.

So if Tesla didn't have that restriction, I could make a 5 bagger every single day!  You guys would never hear the end of it.

BYD doesn't restrict it -- you can run the house off your BYD car.  I really wish Tesla would allow it -- I mean, after buying an 85 kWh battery I feel like I could easily pay it off over 8-10 years if I could run my daytime electricity for just 9 cents per kWh (using the nighttime charge).  Plus, what a great backup generator for power outages.

I'll definitely get a battery for my house when the Giga-factory cuts the prices in half.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 10, 2014, 04:29:49 AM

I was thinking you could just make an app that would arbitrage the high demand and low demand periods. The more EVs the more temporary storage the grid has and the less worry there is about intermittent power sources. 

Not sure if it would be worth it with conversion loss and wear on the battery though.  I guess they are dealing with that exact issue with Solar City.

Check this out: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 10, 2014, 08:06:59 AM

I was thinking you could just make an app that would arbitrage the high demand and low demand periods. The more EVs the more temporary storage the grid has and the less worry there is about intermittent power sources. 

Not sure if it would be worth it with conversion loss and wear on the battery though.  I guess they are dealing with that exact issue with Solar City.

Check this out: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid


That says the value to the utilities is "up to" $4,000 per year per car.

Well, the value to me is much more than that...

I have an 85 kWh battery... I charge it off the grid after midnight at 9 cents per kWh per day and discharge it after 10 am for 47 cents per kWh.

So I "could" make a spread of 38 cents per kWh. 

85*.38= $32.30.    (I earn a gross profit of $32.30 per day)
$32.30 * 365 = $11,789.50  (I earn a gross profit of $11,789.50 per year).

So you see... this demonstrates that I would earn "up to" 3x their estimate.  I could make $11,789.50 per year.

So of course I will be buying a Tesla battery for my house once the Gigafactory cuts their prices in half.  I would have a free electricity bill.  My actual bill is more like $6,000 per year -- I doubt they will pay me anything in excess of that.

So if my battery costs me $12,000 or $18,000, I'll be paying it off after only 2-3 years.

This post also demonstrates just how poorly electricity is priced in California.  It's ridiculous.

EDIT:
Actually, the battery may only cost me only $6,000 to $12,000 (forgot to cut the price in half for a battery only 1/2 the size... I don't need 85kWh because it holds twice as much electricity as I can sell before zeroing out my bill).

So the payoff time for a Tesla residential gigafactory battery may be only 1-2 years.  That is, until California changes their extortionist rates.

The math is sweeter than it looks because this is all un-taxable "imputed" income.  Same logic that can help justify a solar panel installation or a private well.  Utility bills are paid with after-tax dollars, so anything you can do to offset them while skipping taxes on that "income" is much better than it otherwise would seem.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 11, 2014, 03:40:24 PM
GM to perhaps build $30,000 200 mile range EV:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/lg-chem-working-on-battery-to-rival-teslas-range-1407776312?mod=WSJ_hp_EditorsPicks
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 12, 2014, 08:50:39 AM
You get paid for execution at Tesla.

Management's incentivized to hit 30% gross margin:

In the March and June 2013 10-Q’s there is a section titled “Performance-based Stock Option Grant”. There are 782,500 stock option shares for certain employees that have four performance milestones.

1/4th of the shares to vest upon completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle.
1/4th of the shares to vest upon achieving aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles in a trailing 12-month period.
1/4th of the shares to vest upon completion of the first Gen III Production Vehicle; and
1/4th of the shares to vest upon achievement of annualized gross margin of greater than 30.0% in any three years


http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2014/08/12/deutsche-bank-upgraded-tesla-from-hold-to-buy/?partner=yahootix
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 12, 2014, 09:00:33 AM
Second, you know just how badly they want to vest those shares... these things must have very low strike prices relative to where the stock trades today.

I feel like my 100,000 vehicle production bet is looking pretty good!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: mankap on August 12, 2014, 09:53:33 AM
I am excited about 200 mile range EV to be available for <30,000.
I live in Atlanta and I see Nissan Leaf all around me.
Once it is available under 30k, I think adoption rate will see a drastic increase.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 12, 2014, 09:56:43 AM
Battery Battle: Electric Cars Glide to 200-Mile Range

As Tesla Preps Cheaper Model 3, LG Chem Is Developing Its Own Battery



http://online.wsj.com/articles/lg-chem-working-on-battery-to-rival-teslas-range-1407776312?mod=WSJ_hp_EditorsPicks (http://online.wsj.com/articles/lg-chem-working-on-battery-to-rival-teslas-range-1407776312?mod=WSJ_hp_EditorsPicks)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 12, 2014, 10:03:29 AM
Tesla has also opened up all of it's patents around Superchargers and has invited all other car manufacturers to use it's chargers.  They just have to pay an access charge in order to facilitate scaling up the network for greater usage.

So basically, Tesla Superchargers everywhere, and meanwhile the evolving charging tech will improve the speed of charging a car.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 15, 2014, 10:40:55 AM
There is now a 400 mile range battery EV.

The Tesla Roadster:

http://www.gtspirit.com/2014/08/15/tesla-roadster-to-receive-new-battery-pack-with-400-mile-range/

“The Roadster had an old generation battery. We’ll upgrade it to a new generation battery pack and it should have a range of about 400 miles, which will allow you to drive from LA to San Francisco non-stop,” he said.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: redhots on August 15, 2014, 12:47:37 PM
Oooh.. a new competitor out of Silicon Valley.  Renovo Motors.
http://gigaom.com/2014/08/15/meet-renovo-motors-an-electric-supercar-maker-from-silicon-valley/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 15, 2014, 01:45:03 PM
Ok, so which other automaker will match this?

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on August 15, 2014, 02:05:37 PM
Ok, so which other automaker will match this?

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty

Awesome.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on August 19, 2014, 07:14:13 AM
how easy and cheap is it to recycle these batteries? How much lithium reserves are there? You would say with mass adoption it would become expensive after a while?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 19, 2014, 07:32:26 AM
how easy and cheap is it to recycle these batteries? How much lithium reserves are there? You would say with mass adoption it would become expensive after a while?

Relatively easy and a lot.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling-our-non-toxic-battery-packs

I saw something a few years ago about how bolivia alone has enough lithium for billions of electric cars.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVqbD6T3XJeM

But there's a lot of it in many other places too, and unlike oil, it doesn't get destroyed in use so after a while most of it will come from recycling.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: turar on August 19, 2014, 12:46:52 PM
I may have asked this earlier, but I don't think I got a conclusive answer. In a laptop, constant battery use will eventually make the battery almost useless, i.e. not being able to hold much charge for too long. How is this addressed in Tesla cars? With 8 year warranty, it looks like they're estimating their batteries will die down in about 8 years. What then, do you have to buy new battery pack? For how much?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 19, 2014, 02:34:01 PM
With 8 year warranty, it looks like they're estimating their batteries will die down in about 8 years.

Let's say you buy a BMW with a 5 yr warranty.  Does this mean that they're estimating the BMW will die in 5 years?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: turar on August 19, 2014, 02:47:51 PM
Let's say you buy a BMW with a 5 yr warranty.  Does this mean that they're estimating the BMW will die in 5 years?

Okay, let's say I'm totally wrong in assuming this. My questions are still: 1) Are these batteries expected to deteriorate over usage period, similar to other Li-ion batteries, 2) If so, when will they draw-down? And 3) if so, what is the replacement cost?

Edit: I googled around, and there seem to be a few forum threads on Tesla site and others discussing this as well. Overall, my impression is that nobody really knows what's going to happen to their cars' batteries a few years from now, since it's all new.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 19, 2014, 02:56:15 PM
Okay, let's say I'm totally wrong in assuming this. My questions are still: 1) Are these batteries expected to deteriorate over usage period, similar to other Li-ion batteries, 2) If so, when will they draw-down? And 3) if so, what is the replacement cost?

Laptops and electric vehicles have different design parameters for their batteries and how they are used, even when they use the same cells. There are ways to make batteries last a lot longer, for example by never fully charging and discharging them (in a way that is not visible to the user), and when they deteriorate you start to use that buffer to mask the decline, and only after a long time do you have a decline in performance visible to the customer.

I expect most EVs batteries to last the life of the vehicle and few people to replace them. They'll get fewer miles out of a full charge toward the end of their life, just like a gasoline cars gets fewer miles out of a full tank after 10 years or whatever, but they won't suddenly go dead and stop working.

I think most batteries that will end up being replaced will be replaced not because they deteriorate too much, but because newer much better, and cheaper, batteries will be available in 5-10 years and some people will want the upgrade.

There are many hybrids that have been used as taxis and have hundreds of thousands of miles on the counter, and they're still going fine. This is an important test because most have older battery tech (NiMH), and because a smaller hybrid battery cycles a lot more often than a larger full EV's battery.

That's my understanding of the situation, anyway.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 19, 2014, 07:05:20 PM
It looks like about 75% of original capacity after 8 years:

http://www.teslamotors.com/fr_FR/forum/forums/battery-warranty-model-s

I've seen it written that one aim of the Gigafactory is to recycle Tesla batteries.  So they'll probably offer a reduced replacement price for trade-in.

You would drive to a service center, and the battery swap only takes about 5 minutes.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 28, 2014, 08:27:10 AM
Beyond the Supercharger: Tesla’s Other Charging Network


http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2014/08/27/beyond-the-supercharger-teslas-other-charging-network/?mod=WSJ_corp_intel&mod=WSJ_corp_intel (http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2014/08/27/beyond-the-supercharger-teslas-other-charging-network/?mod=WSJ_corp_intel&mod=WSJ_corp_intel)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on August 28, 2014, 02:23:12 PM
Forget the stock, you could have bought the car and sell it for more second hand. I see one tesla S being sold for 120k. New price would be just about 100k.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 02, 2014, 03:00:13 PM
Tesla’s Biggest Bull: Durability, Profitability ‘Do Not Matter’


http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/02/teslas-biggest-bull-durability-profitability-do-not-matter/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/02/teslas-biggest-bull-durability-profitability-do-not-matter/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 03, 2014, 02:12:22 PM
Tesla chooses Nevada for battery factory


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101937267?trknav=homestack:topnews:1 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101937267?trknav=homestack:topnews:1)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 12, 2014, 09:31:10 AM
Why Musk Is Building Batteries in the Desert When No One Is Buying


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-11/why-musk-is-building-batteries-in-a-desert-when-no-one-is-buying.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-11/why-musk-is-building-batteries-in-a-desert-when-no-one-is-buying.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 18, 2014, 09:48:48 AM
http://online.wsj.com/articles/the-musk-family-plan-for-transforming-the-worlds-energy-1411055676

Quote
Thanks to the economies of scale that will come from Tesla's gigafactory, within 10 years every solar system that SolarCity sells will come with a battery-storage system, says Mr. Rive, and it will still produce energy cheaper than what is available from the local utility company.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: compounding on September 21, 2014, 04:45:08 AM
Interesting article in Fortune:

http://fortune.com/2014/09/18/sakti3-lithium-ion-battery/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 21, 2014, 06:06:39 AM
Interesting article in Fortune:

http://fortune.com/2014/09/18/sakti3-lithium-ion-battery/

So there is a chart in that article where the "projected cost" for batteries is $400 in 2014.  It shows how the cost dropped below $500 two years ago.

However, in the third paragraph of the article they say that "currently" they cost $500.

How do they manage to print mistakes like this in Fortune magazine?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on September 21, 2014, 08:55:51 AM
there are so many articles on the next hot battery tech, but most of them don't end up being practical. Or all of them really. Im curious what hang up this one has.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on September 21, 2014, 09:07:04 AM
Eric,
Just curious if there is anything about your model S that you don't like?
I'd like to be a shareholder at some point.
Musk is amazing!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: merkhet on September 23, 2014, 12:08:23 PM
So I was reading this month's Fortune, and it had a blurb about a new battery manufacturer.

It occurs to me that the traditional risk that Tesla's batteries get leapfrogged because of the fact that newer or better technology comes online might be a little overblown. Might there be some path-dependency and/or lock-in the way that QWERTY keyboards beat Dvorak keyboards?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on September 23, 2014, 12:34:52 PM
So I was reading this month's Fortune, and it had a blurb about a new battery manufacturer.

It occurs to me that the traditional risk that Tesla's batteries get leapfrogged because of the fact that newer or better technology comes online might be a little overblown. Might there be some path-dependency and/or lock-in the way that QWERTY keyboards beat Dvorak keyboards?

There might be some resistance, but not as much as with keyboards.  Once you can type 30-60 wpm, learning a new keyboard layout is a lot of work for not much gain.  You'd do it if it meant being able to type 500 wpm though.  If a new battery technology exists that can give significantly more range and be just as durable and long lasting I think it will be adopted by the industry.  Including TSLA.   I'm sure it would be cheaper in the long run to re-tool the factory to produce the new type of battery than it would be to stick with the old type and be behind the rest of the industry.  I don't think that this is much of a threat, because battery technology doesn't move very fast.  A new technology would not only have to hold more charge, but it would have to be as durable (cars take a beating), as safe, work at extreme temperatures (both Alaska and Arizona), be as long lasting, and as inexpensive.  Those are a lot of ifs, a battery working in a lab setting is very different from a mature automotive grade product.  TSLA will get 10 good years out of its factory even if a new battery technology is discovered today.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 23, 2014, 01:13:55 PM
Eric,
Just curious if there is anything about your model S that you don't like?
I'd like to be a shareholder at some point.
Musk is amazing!

The automatic raising and lowering has been imperfect.  I've had it lower the nose onto the top of a parking block -- I hear it scrape when I come back to the car after shopping and reverse.

They have introduced some bugs during their various software updates, but the symptoms are easy to notice and easy to cure.  I find that if I just reboot the cars computer the symptoms vanish.  The symptom was that the GPS navigation system started to malfunction.  There are two buttons on the steering wheel that you simultaneously press down and hold down for a while -- then it reboots.  But it doesn't affect the driving of the car when the computer goes berzerk -- just the utility of the GPS.  I've had the whole computer screen freeze up too.

So it's kind of like having an Apple product.  You reboot it and it fixes the issue.

I've also worn out the high performance tires relatively quickly and they are expensive -- they slip a bit more now.

And the interior is nice, but it isn't a luxury-car grade interior.  The driving however is far superior -- I love the "single peddle" driving... so simple.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 29, 2014, 09:34:10 AM

Tesla's China Challenge: Getting Chargers Installed

Tesla Has Big China Ambitions but First Must Win Over Charger Skeptics


http://online.wsj.com/articles/teslas-challenge-in-china-getting-its-chargers-installed-1411936037?mod=Business_newsreel_5 (http://online.wsj.com/articles/teslas-challenge-in-china-getting-its-chargers-installed-1411936037?mod=Business_newsreel_5)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2014, 08:26:02 AM
"The D" is coming.

Tesla CEO teases 'the D' and 'something else' on Twitter (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2777618/Has-Elon-Musk-revealed-intelligent-electric-car-Tesla-CEO-teases-The-D-Twitter.html)

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/10/02/1412241525227_wps_11_ELon_1_PNG.jpg)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on October 02, 2014, 09:30:29 AM
^I can't wait to see the D.  ;D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2014, 09:49:59 AM
^I can't wait to see the D.  ;D

He's going to expose it on the 9th.  I supposed it is expected that you can't have  S ||| X without The D.

Best Headline goes to AP:   "Tesla rises as Musk tweets about the D" (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-rises-musk-tweets-d-153014422.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on October 02, 2014, 10:05:58 AM
Someone on the internets was speculating that they might be shifting do a dealership model. I have no idea of the plausibility of this (maybe for select markets)? But could be an interesting capital raising vehicle for the company...selling franchises, that is. Might also help them scale.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2014, 10:12:56 AM
Someone on the internets was speculating that they might be shifting do a dealership model. I have no idea of the plausibility of this (maybe for select markets)? But could be an interesting capital raising vehicle for the company...selling franchises, that is. Might also help them scale.

That would be switching from a more efficient model to an outdated less efficient model purely for political reasons.  I hope not.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on October 02, 2014, 10:33:14 AM
Another very clever move.
Free advertising for 9 days.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on October 02, 2014, 10:41:05 AM
Someone on the internets was speculating that they might be shifting do a dealership model. I have no idea of the plausibility of this (maybe for select markets)? But could be an interesting capital raising vehicle for the company...selling franchises, that is. Might also help them scale.

That would be switching from a more efficient model to an outdated less efficient model purely for political reasons.  I hope not.

They could do a dealer sort of as a franchisee...Tesla only dealers etc with the dealer being a total shell entity just to get around the loophole.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 02, 2014, 11:23:38 AM
"D"

All wheel drive Model S.

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

It's standard on Model X
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on October 02, 2014, 11:58:30 AM
"D"

All wheel drive Model S.

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

It's standard on Model X

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2014, 12:21:15 PM
"D"

All wheel drive Model S.

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

It's standard on Model X

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.

The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on October 02, 2014, 12:22:33 PM
"D"

All wheel drive Model S.

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

It's standard on Model X

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.

The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".

Not sure why it can't be a variation on model s like a model sd, like eric described.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on October 02, 2014, 12:25:28 PM
I'm thinking something driverless related.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2014, 12:27:14 PM
"D"

All wheel drive Model S.

Dual-motor / Dual-drive

It's standard on Model X

Eric's got the right right idea...why would they tease a structural business move? Has to be a feature/consumer angle.

The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".

Not sure why it can't be a variation on model s like a model sd, like eric described.

It could be, but that is a car, not an announcement that they are opening dealerships.  It could also be a new redesigned or updated and rebranded version of the Roadster.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on October 02, 2014, 12:29:08 PM
http://jalopnik.com/musk-says-90-percent-of-tesla-driving-will-be-auto-pilo-1641772543?utm_campaign=socialflow_jalopnik_twitter&utm_source=jalopnik_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on October 02, 2014, 12:43:37 PM
http://jalopnik.com/musk-says-90-percent-of-tesla-driving-will-be-auto-pilo-1641772543?utm_campaign=socialflow_jalopnik_twitter&utm_source=jalopnik_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

Boom!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 02, 2014, 02:10:37 PM
http://jalopnik.com/musk-says-90-percent-of-tesla-driving-will-be-auto-pilo-1641772543?utm_campaign=socialflow_jalopnik_twitter&utm_source=jalopnik_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

Boom!

This is like buying computers.  You are better off to hold off the purchase until the following year (or in my case 2 years).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on October 02, 2014, 02:16:58 PM
So 90% of the time if you don't watch the road, you will not crash. Not sure if i like those odds.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 02, 2014, 02:21:05 PM
So 90% of the time if you don't watch the road, you will not crash. Not sure if i like those odds.

Depends how the road is painted.

A terrorist could just repaint the highway lanes in the night so that everyone with a self-driving car goes off the cliff.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on October 02, 2014, 03:01:43 PM
could be a nice trick for highway diners.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: treasurehunt on October 02, 2014, 04:02:12 PM
The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".
I am going with Eric's guess -- "Dual Drive". The other letter is also D. Imagine if Musk tweeted about revealing a DD. Hence his comment that he is glad he didn't mention the other letter.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 02, 2014, 04:09:48 PM
The graphic says "unveil the D" with a garage door going up and a vehicle behind it.  It is pretty obvious that there is going to be a Model D.  Probably a Model P as well, based on the fact that he said "Glad I didn't mention the other letter!" and the "something else".
I am going with Eric's guess -- "Dual Drive". The other letter is also D. Imagine if Musk tweeted about revealing a DD. Hence his comment that he is glad he didn't mention the other letter.

Additionally, it's a Model S behind the doors.  Exact same front trim and headlights.

Model X looks different from the front and so would an entirely new not-yet-revealed body style.

These aren't my original thoughts by the way -- just what I deemed the most likely scenario based on what I read over on the Tesla Motors forum.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: nikhil25 on October 03, 2014, 08:04:13 AM
Tesla Model S P85D: Is This Elon Musk's "D"?
http://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-s-p85d-is-this-elon-musks-d-1641866673


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 06, 2014, 10:00:22 AM
Tech World Vexed by Slow Progress on Batteries



http://online.wsj.com/articles/tech-world-vexed-by-slow-progress-on-batteries-1412552377?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories (http://online.wsj.com/articles/tech-world-vexed-by-slow-progress-on-batteries-1412552377?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 07, 2014, 09:21:41 AM
Panasonic Plans Big Investment in Tesla Battery Plant

Panasonic to Invest Tens of Billions of Yen as First Installment




http://online.wsj.com/articles/panasonic-plans-big-investment-in-tesla-battery-plant-1412656008 (http://online.wsj.com/articles/panasonic-plans-big-investment-in-tesla-battery-plant-1412656008)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Palantir on October 09, 2014, 08:55:06 AM
We want the D!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 09, 2014, 09:16:07 PM
I want this:

Tesla also said at a big briefing event here that it'll have a hopped-up version of its Model S that has all-wheel drive and blasts to 60 mph in little more than 3 seconds.

Musk said in an interview with USA TODAY that his favorite car is the super-fast McLaren, a hihig-dollar, low-volume production car with racing attributes. Musk thinks the quickest Tesla will match the McLaren's 3.2-second sprint to 60 mph from standstill.



http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/09/tesla-musk-safety-driver-aids/16986665/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: JBird on October 09, 2014, 09:36:02 PM
Tesla site back up. The P85D listed doing 0-60 in 3.2 sec. Top speed 155 mph. 691 horsepower! All yours for 112k. I would love to drive this thing!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: nikhil25 on October 10, 2014, 07:07:41 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/demo-of-tesla-model-s-2014-10

Cool video of the autopilot feature.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 10, 2014, 07:24:13 AM
Tesla site back up. The P85D listed doing 0-60 in 3.2 sec. Top speed 155 mph. 691 horsepower! All yours for 112k. I would love to drive this thing!

Make an appointment for a test drive.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 10, 2014, 07:56:51 AM
Tesla site back up. The P85D listed doing 0-60 in 3.2 sec. Top speed 155 mph. 691 horsepower! All yours for 112k. I would love to drive this thing!

Make an appointment for a test drive.

I'd love to drive one too, but I'd be terrified to make an appointment to test drive one.  I might actually have to buy it.  I'd rather never know that I need a $112K+ vehicle.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 10, 2014, 08:37:16 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/demo-of-tesla-model-s-2014-10

Cool video of the autopilot feature.

"even self-park itself in your garage — with you out of the car. You can even summon the car to your location, and it will drive up to meet you"

Definitely a good start on autonomous vehicles, but not very useful yet because of the laws and regulations in place right now, as with just about anything in any industry government gets in the way. These features are "only available on private property".

These features would be incredibly useful if you could be dropped off at the door of a store or restaurant and the car could then go park itself and pick you back up at the door when your were done. But at your home the ability to drop you off at your door and park itself in the garage isn't useful at all unless it can plug itself in when it gets there or charge wirelessly.  You still have to go out to the garage to plug it in.  Also it would need the ability to unplug itself in order to leave the garage and pick you up at your door.

So these features are only legal where they are of no use and illegal where they would be of most use.


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on October 10, 2014, 08:57:42 AM
But at your home the ability to drop you off at your door and park itself in the garage isn't useful at all unless it can plug itself in when it gets there or charge wirelessly.  You still have to go out to the garage to plug it in.  Also it would need the ability to unplug itself in order to leave the garage and pick you up at your door.

So these features are only legal where they are of no use and illegal where they would be of most use.

If that becomes a popular use case with users, a good solution will be developed. Tesla listens to their customers and iterates quickly.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Aberhound on October 10, 2014, 11:01:23 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/demo-of-tesla-model-s-2014-10

Cool video of the autopilot feature.

"even self-park itself in your garage — with you out of the car. You can even summon the car to your location, and it will drive up to meet you"

Definitely a good start on autonomous vehicles, but not very useful yet because of the laws and regulations in place right now, as with just about anything in any industry government gets in the way. These features are "only available on private property".

These features would be incredibly useful if you could be dropped off at the door of a store or restaurant and the car could then go park itself and pick you back up at the door when your were done. But at your home the ability to drop you off at your door and park itself in the garage isn't useful at all unless it can plug itself in when it gets there or charge wirelessly.  You still have to go out to the garage to plug it in.  Also it would need the ability to unplug itself in order to leave the garage and pick you up at your door.

So these features are only legal where they are of no use and illegal where they would be of most use.

Malls are private property so how long before stores and restaurants at malls set up a Tesla Valet service to attract wealthy customers? Perhaps this makes malls property more valuable? Why stop there. Why not set up a Tesla Town by building an entire city on private property? 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: MYDemaray on October 10, 2014, 11:28:11 AM
Most parking lots are private property. I know because I backed into someone once and the cop couldn't write me a ticket. I've heard this from other police officers as well.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 10, 2014, 12:46:36 PM
Good point about parking lots.  It'd be nice to have valet parking even in a city's downtown, but this would work with any establishment that has a parking lot.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on October 10, 2014, 01:01:45 PM
why does it say 275m range is an improvement. I thought range was 300m in the last one?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on October 10, 2014, 01:25:19 PM
Here's the official video of the autopilot and dual motor. Very good stuff.

Interestingly, Musk mentions the charger plug-in issue when the car self parks in your garage. This guy and company is awesome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ6lZJWL_Xk&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ6lZJWL_Xk&feature=youtu.be)

Eric, if you can figure out a way to get a P85D without too much of an outlay, that would be cool. The auto-pilot stuff seems really nice. I guess at this rate, Tesla will always be making the cars better...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: johnny on October 10, 2014, 01:26:20 PM
Malls are private property so how long before stores and restaurants at malls set up a Tesla Valet service to attract wealthy customers? Perhaps this makes malls property more valuable? Why stop there. Why not set up a Tesla Town by building an entire city on private property? 

Here's the hypo:

You "hand over" your Tesla to the valet service. It goes to park the car in a Tesla-only area. A 12 year old skateboarding in the parking structure flies in front of the Model S, gets hit, and dies.

The kid's parents sue you for negligent operation (just because traffic laws don't apply doesn't mean you aren't responsible for safe operation). They sue Tesla for deploying defective software. And they sue the mall for not doing enough to prevent children from skateboarding in the parking lot.

Which lawsuits go the distance, which get tossed, and which end up with a big judgment? I don't think anybody really knows. And as long as the Malls think there is any chance they're going to get hit with some plausible lawsuit, I don't think the payoff to having the valet service is going to be attractive to them.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 10, 2014, 01:34:01 PM
Malls are private property so how long before stores and restaurants at malls set up a Tesla Valet service to attract wealthy customers? Perhaps this makes malls property more valuable? Why stop there. Why not set up a Tesla Town by building an entire city on private property? 

Here's the hypo:

You "hand over" your Tesla to the valet service. It goes to park the car in a Tesla-only area. A 12 year old skateboarding in the parking structure flies in front of the Model S, gets hit, and dies.

The kid's parents sue you for negligent operation (just because traffic laws don't apply doesn't mean you aren't responsible for safe operation). They sue Tesla for deploying defective software. And they sue the mall for not doing enough to prevent children from skateboarding in the parking lot.

Which lawsuits go the distance, which get tossed, and which end up with a big judgment? I don't think anybody really knows. And as long as the Malls think there is any chance they're going to get hit with some plausible lawsuit, I don't think the payoff to having the valet service is going to be attractive to them.


Or...the sensors stop the car before it hits the kid and he skateboards away.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 10, 2014, 01:37:07 PM
Last month in my town we had a middle school kid hit in the school parking lot by an elderly driver who was there to vote in the primary elections.  I'd be more likely to trust my kids skateboarding around vehicles driven by Tesla's software than vehicles operated by elderly ladies with their quick thinking and reaction times.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: johnny on October 10, 2014, 01:47:12 PM
Just to clarify: I'm very pro autonomous driving from a societal welfare perspective.

But malls are not going to expose themselves to real (or imagined) legal liability just for the privilege of being on the vanguard and helping propel humanity forward.

Until the malls (or their insurers) feel confident that they have essentially zero legal risk offering (or even explicitly tolerating) this sort of service, I think it is a sort of "wouldn't it be cool" idea, not a reasonable expectation.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 10, 2014, 04:31:37 PM
How about a Skynet virus that hackers install in your Tesla and a fleet of centrally controlled Teslas goes on a simultaneously coordinated pedestrian killing rampage.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 11, 2014, 09:00:11 AM
How about a Skynet virus that hackers install in your Tesla and a fleet of centrally controlled Teslas goes on a simultaneously coordinated pedestrian killing rampage.

There are certainly easier ways to kill lots of people.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on October 11, 2014, 09:21:55 AM
But not nearly as entertaining.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 11, 2014, 11:24:17 AM
GM doesn't even need a skynet to kill random people with its cars....
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rmitz on October 12, 2014, 10:09:34 AM
Malls are private property so how long before stores and restaurants at malls set up a Tesla Valet service to attract wealthy customers? Perhaps this makes malls property more valuable? Why stop there. Why not set up a Tesla Town by building an entire city on private property? 

Here's the hypo:

You "hand over" your Tesla to the valet service. It goes to park the car in a Tesla-only area. A 12 year old skateboarding in the parking structure flies in front of the Model S, gets hit, and dies.

The kid's parents sue you for negligent operation (just because traffic laws don't apply doesn't mean you aren't responsible for safe operation). They sue Tesla for deploying defective software. And they sue the mall for not doing enough to prevent children from skateboarding in the parking lot.

Which lawsuits go the distance, which get tossed, and which end up with a big judgment? I don't think anybody really knows. And as long as the Malls think there is any chance they're going to get hit with some plausible lawsuit, I don't think the payoff to having the valet service is going to be attractive to them.

One of the advantages of having a computer drive is that they aren't going to be impatient.  Thus, they can drive to their spots...very slowly, even though they'd be capable of much more.  This mitigates the risk so much that even if a car hit someone, at 5mph nothing much is going to happen.  This will also allow for much data to be gathered and will get people used to the idea over time.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 12, 2014, 10:22:58 AM
Quote from: johnny link=topic=9007.msg192571#msg192571 date
Here's the hypo:

 And they sue the mall for not doing enough to prevent children from skateboarding in the parking lot.

Which lawsuits go the distance, which get tossed, and which end up with a big judgment? I don't think anybody really knows. And as long as the Malls think there is any chance they're going to get hit with some plausible lawsuit, I don't think the payoff to having the valet service is going to be attractive to them.

But cars are currently allowed in mall parking lots.

Despite the skateboarding lawsuit risk.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on October 12, 2014, 11:07:45 AM
I think the issue is not  that you can get sued, but who gets sued.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 12, 2014, 11:23:03 AM
I think the issue is not  that you can get sued, but who gets sued.

In the case of the mall, it's the same liability if the issue is whether they should have been preventing skateboarding (which is exactly the issue at hand in the post I replied to).

Liability for the mall operator may actually be lower if driverless has less chance of incident -- you don't have texting drivers at the wheel.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 17, 2014, 10:01:48 AM
Don't even mention Tesla in Michigan, the violent gang who controls that area doesn't want to hear about it on their turf.

"they create an effective prohibition against Tesla opening a store in Michigan. This amendment goes even further. It also seeks to prevent Tesla from operating a gallery in Michigan that simply provides information without conducting sales. We could even be barred from telling people about our car."

A Raw Deal in Michigan (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/raw-deal-michigan)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 21, 2014, 04:15:35 PM
Daimler Sells Stake in Tesla, Work on Electric Cars to Continue

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/daimler-sells-stake-in-tesla-work-on-electric-cars-to-continue.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/daimler-sells-stake-in-tesla-work-on-electric-cars-to-continue.html)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 24, 2014, 10:22:37 AM
Ford CEO:  "We could produce a great car, but we just don't feel like it".    Yeah, okay. If you say so.

Ford CEO: We have expertise to do Tesla-like vehicle (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/24/ford-tesla/17827533/)

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 27, 2014, 11:00:38 AM
Tesla Unveils Lower-Cost Lease Program

Electric-Car Maker Looks to Lift Sagging U.S. Sales Through New Incentives



http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-unveils-lower-cost-lease-plan-1414427518?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_business (http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-unveils-lower-cost-lease-plan-1414427518?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_business)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: beerbaron on October 28, 2014, 03:47:27 PM
Ford CEO:  "We could produce a great car, but we just don't feel like it".    Yeah, okay. If you say so.

Ford CEO: We have expertise to do Tesla-like vehicle (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/24/ford-tesla/17827533/)

Translation: "We could copy the Tesla but were not able to come out with one"

BeerBaron
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on October 28, 2014, 04:31:08 PM
Ford CEO:  "We could produce a great car, but we just don't feel like it".    Yeah, okay. If you say so.

Ford CEO: We have expertise to do Tesla-like vehicle (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/24/ford-tesla/17827533/)

Translation: "We could copy the Tesla but were not able to come out with one"

BeerBaron

I find it more likely that Tesla could produce a Ford-like vehicle if they wanted to.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on November 21, 2014, 12:33:08 PM
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/factory-upgrade

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/house-always-wins
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on November 21, 2014, 01:20:00 PM
Ford CEO:  "We could produce a great car, but we just don't feel like it".    Yeah, okay. If you say so.

Ford CEO: We have expertise to do Tesla-like vehicle (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/24/ford-tesla/17827533/)

Translation: "We could copy the Tesla but were not able to come out with one"

BeerBaron

I find it more likely that Tesla could produce a Ford-like vehicle if they wanted to.
Allthough it is probably most likely they will stick with producing Tesla like-vehicles.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on December 08, 2014, 08:17:29 AM
Interesting piece on JB Straubel, Tesla's chief technology officer:

http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21635332-jb-straubel-charged-more-electrifying-californian-carmaker-he
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on February 02, 2015, 06:38:03 AM
Watch a young Elon Musk take delivery of his $1 million McLaren F1 hypercar (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-young-elon-musk-delivery-134516017.html)

"Although Musk has now moved on to driving the latest offerings from Tesla, his silver F1 remains the performance benchmark for his company. Last year, Musk proudly touted the Tesla Model S P85D's ability to match the McLaren's 3.2-second 0-to-60-mph acceleration time.  Today, the McLaren F1 has grown significantly in value. In May, the 28th F1 ever built sold for an incredible $10.5 million."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on February 05, 2015, 03:40:13 PM
They sure know where to recruit the best talent:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-05/want-elon-musk-to-hire-you-at-tesla-work-for-apple
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: yadayada on February 12, 2015, 09:50:35 AM
oh my god, that conference call.. Musk compared tesla with apple, and apparantly sales people in China had said, 'well it is not a very good car, but want to try it?'. Holy shit haha. Also Musk was really rambling on that call. Hope he gets it together. He should just focus on his work, and not bother with these conference calls. Not holding a call would have been better.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on February 12, 2015, 10:05:14 AM
Musk compared tesla with apple, and apparantly sales people in China had said, 'well it is not a very good car, but want to try it?'.

I agree that apple is not a very good car. I believe Cinderella used a pumpkin with better success.

 ;D  ;D  ;D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 10, 2015, 01:10:15 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?utm_campaign=Tesla_Weekly_20&utm_medium=email&utm_source=teslaweekly.com&v=olBOp48D0RM

Pretty long interview with Musk. A bit old, but I'm just getting around to it and I don't remember seeing it here. Sorry if it's a repost.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 13, 2015, 08:08:36 AM
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/tesla-stock-soar-to-1900/ (http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/tesla-stock-soar-to-1900/)
 
Tesla price range from -50% to +1000%
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: mlcglobal on March 19, 2015, 01:51:35 AM
MS vid... http://goo.gl/dIAsxc
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: merkhet on March 19, 2015, 07:13:40 AM
Seriously? That's what passes for research these days?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on March 19, 2015, 04:08:59 PM
Tesla to Upgrade Cars Through the Internet

Auto maker seeks to add features, like autonomous driving, directly to Model S owners


http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-add-car-safety-features-via-downloads-1426785366?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection (http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-add-car-safety-features-via-downloads-1426785366?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 19, 2015, 06:46:17 PM
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-has-you-covered
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: KinAlberta on March 19, 2015, 08:50:39 PM
I'm curious - so who here owns TESLA and who is betting against it?


Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on March 20, 2015, 10:40:13 AM
I broke down and bought a few shares, a very small position (<2%).   If I had done that with Amazon or Apple back in the day I'd have been glad I did it today.  Who knows after it goes up 10X or 100X it could be a large part of my portfolio someday.   :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Libs on March 20, 2015, 11:06:32 AM
I'm curious - so who here owns TESLA and who is betting against it?

Tiny short ( own some puts), for the reasons other skeptics have cited here.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: mlcglobal on March 20, 2015, 07:56:11 PM
Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus.  :-\

Year 1:$317.83
Year 2:$505.09   
Year 3:$802.66   
Year 4:$1,275.55   
Year 5:$2,027.06

Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 21, 2015, 06:45:58 AM
Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus.  :-\

Year 1:$317.83
Year 2:$505.09   
Year 3:$802.66   
Year 4:$1,275.55   
Year 5:$2,027.06

Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate.

How do you get to 70k at 3 mil units? The Model 3 is expected to be in the 30-40k range, and it should represent most of the volume.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on March 21, 2015, 07:24:01 AM
Here are my FV market price targets. Assumes 3,000,000 cars in 2025 at $70,000 and 15% net margin. No share dilution. Ceteris paribus.  :-\

Year 1:$317.83
Year 2:$505.09   
Year 3:$802.66   
Year 4:$1,275.55   
Year 5:$2,027.06

Year 6 onwards: @ 19% return out to year 10 matching a NPV of $1552.312 with a 12% discount rate.

How do you get to 70k at 3 mil units? The Model 3 is expected to be in the 30-40k range, and it should represent most of the volume.

I think he/she is joking.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on March 21, 2015, 07:32:30 AM
You never know.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: wescobrk on March 21, 2015, 08:45:47 AM
It would be interesting to see companies in the past around similar market cap and growth rates and margins of divergences in valuations over time if Telsa does indeed march up to $2k-$4k a share in 10 years.
Berkshire dropped 50% four times in 50 years so I'm sure we'll see that at Tesla at some point.
So far we haven't seen a drop much more than 35% or so. I'm not sure if we'll get to the >50% until we get the next recession if Musk continues what he is doing. If we do, even better for shorts and longs (at least long-term longs).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: fareastwarriors on March 27, 2015, 12:54:59 PM
Regulators Have Hands Full With Tesla’s Plan for Hands-Free Driving

Electric car maker will soon enable owners to let car do driving on interstate and operate without an occupant on private property

http://www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-have-hands-full-with-teslas-plan-for-hands-free-driving-1427484220?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection (http://www.wsj.com/articles/regulators-have-hands-full-with-teslas-plan-for-hands-free-driving-1427484220?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Grenville on March 27, 2015, 04:46:07 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?utm_campaign=Tesla_Weekly_20&utm_medium=email&utm_source=teslaweekly.com&v=olBOp48D0RM

Pretty long interview with Musk. A bit old, but I'm just getting around to it and I don't remember seeing it here. Sorry if it's a repost.

Liberty,

Nice interview. Thanks for posting. There are some tidbits from the lunch Musk and Munger had together in 08/09…pretty interesting! (tidbits are in the last five minutes or so)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 03:47:06 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on May 01, 2015, 06:30:08 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I might just get this for backup...

We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc.

Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 06:43:07 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I might just get this for backup...

We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc.

Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)?

Do you live somewhere that has time-of-use electricity pricing? If so, this is much better than a generator, because it can charge up at night when power is cheap and run your house during peak time when energy is expensive, paying for itself over time.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on May 01, 2015, 06:52:55 AM
Yeah, that would be better, but I don't think we have time-of-use electricity pricing. Maybe we'll get it who knows.

I also thought about getting solar panels, but with the winter snow cover, I don't think I want to make that investment. (Also worried about gunk and mold accumulating between panels and roof and possibly damaging the roof faster).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 07:04:14 AM
Yeah, how much sense these things make depends a lot on where you live. But eventually, they'll all be so cheap that they'll be worth getting almost everywhere anyway :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 01, 2015, 07:17:14 AM
They really need to push something like this for RVs.  Especially houseboats.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 07:22:42 AM
They really need to push something like this for RVs.  Especially houseboats.

Are you getting one (or more) for your house Eric? Sounds like a no-brainer in California, with such a big difference between the day and night rates.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ATLValue on May 01, 2015, 07:24:04 AM
I wonder what kind of additional returns this has added to their investment in the Gigafactory
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 01, 2015, 07:27:16 AM
They really need to push something like this for RVs.  Especially houseboats.

Are you getting one (or more) for your house Eric? Sounds like a no-brainer in California, with such a big difference between the day and night rates.


Yes I will be doing this.

Not just the big difference in rates, but also the sky-high tax rates.

Anything I save on my electric bill is tax-free imputed income.

I believe if I spend $9,000 to get 3 of the 7 kWh daily cycle batteries, my bill will go down by $200 a month.  I was just inspecting my electric bill a few minutes ago and figured this out.

$200 a month is $3,600 a year at 33% capital gain/dividend tax rates. 

$3,600 a year is 40% pre-tax yield on invested dollar.

That's risk-free yield of course -- not like the stock market!

Invested capital is recovered (after-tax)  in 3.75 years.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 07:40:19 AM
They really need to push something like this for RVs.  Especially houseboats.

Are you getting one (or more) for your house Eric? Sounds like a no-brainer in California, with such a big difference between the day and night rates.


Yes I will be doing this.

Not just the big difference in rates, but also the sky-high tax rates.

Anything I save on my electric bill is tax-free imputed income.

I believe if I spend $9,000 to get 3 of the 7 kWh daily cycle batteries, my bill will go down by $200 a month.  I was just inspecting my electric bill a few minutes ago and figured this out.

$200 a month is $3,600 a year at 33% capital gain/dividend tax rates. 

$3,600 a year is 40% pre-tax yield on invested dollar.

That's risk-free yield of course -- not like the stock market!

Invested capital is recovered (after-tax)  in 3.75 years.

And if you borrow that $9k at 1.5% with your IB margin, your ROE will be insane ;)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 01, 2015, 08:07:22 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I might just get this for backup...

We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc.

Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)?

I'm in New England as well, southern NH.  I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once.  I think a generator is still the only viable option.   This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 08:22:27 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I might just get this for backup...

We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc.

Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)?

I'm in New England as well, southern NH.  I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once.  I think a generator is still the only viable option.   This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages.

Unless you plan to run an electric clothes dryer for a long time or have electric heat, the 10kwh model should last for quite a bit longer than a "coupe hours ".
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on May 01, 2015, 08:25:31 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I might just get this for backup...

We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc.

Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)?

I'm in New England as well, southern NH.  I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once.  I think a generator is still the only viable option.   This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages.

Hmm, you think 10KWh won't last day+ with minimal use at the house? We won't run washer/dryer. I guess minimal use of cooking range. My concern is really to have the heating going through the outage.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 01, 2015, 10:19:35 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall

I might just get this for backup...

We were thinking about backup generator for storms, but this seems to be much simpler solution. Might not last as long as a generator, but won't need upkeep, bigger natgas line, etc.

Anyone sees any drawbacks with this for a backup use (in New England area if that matters)?

I'm in New England as well, southern NH.  I'm thinking about the last 4 or 5 years and we've lost power at my house for over 24 hours a number of times (the last one being Thanksgiving day) and for over a week once.  I think a generator is still the only viable option.   This battery solution would work great when you loose power for a couple of hours, but you would still need a generator for the longer term outages.

Hmm, you think 10KWh won't last day+ with minimal use at the house? We won't run washer/dryer. I guess minimal use of cooking range. My concern is really to have the heating going through the outage.

I guess I'd have to figure out what I'm using and do the math.  I run a fridge (48" older model subzero), my well pump, my heating system (we have forced hot air oil system so this probably isn't much), the radon mitigation system for the water, the office with computer/cable modem/router/computer in it, the lights for most of the house, there is a section of pipe heating on some water pipes in my unheated attic that is critical to keep running in the winter (I live in an old house).

I have a 7kW Honda generator that runs all of that when the power goes out.  It isn't an automatic one, I have to go get it out, plug it in, start it up, and then flip the transfer switches.  I wonder how long a Tesla battery or two would last?  Certainly not a week, but maybe it would be nice to have the battery for short outages and only fire up the generator after it is depleted for longer ones.   I'll wait and see how people make out with these before I'll consider them.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on May 01, 2015, 10:32:39 AM
Thanks rkbabang for your real-situation comments. I am trying to get feedback from various people and then I'll decide what to do. I'll let you guys know if we decide to buy one.

Take care.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gfp on May 01, 2015, 11:10:38 AM
I would like one of these.  I think they make the most sense in combination with a solar PV system on your house.  I have a 14kW solar array on my roof, so one of these tesla batteries would be able to do everything a backup generator would do for me as long as it wasn't super cloudy for several days in a row during an extended outage.  Luckily in New Orleans, the days directly after a hurricane are almost always completely clear and sunny.  These are also a good hedge against a potential future change in local net metering laws.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 01, 2015, 11:55:30 AM
From what I understand the utilities don't allow net metering if you have one of these battery systems that you use to charge every night and deplete daily.

It has to be strictly backup power source only.  This is a concern if you have a solar setup where you sell energy to the grid.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 01, 2015, 01:35:26 PM
Here's Musk's presentation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVjW9XdPlhg
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on May 01, 2015, 02:11:40 PM
I hope Musk continues to hit milestones well and doesn't get into situation where shareholders revolt and kill his long term plans.

I'm not sure the stock is a good investment, but I really hope that the company does well for the benefit of us all.  8)

Peace.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 07, 2015, 10:44:28 AM
Always an interesting read, even for bystanders:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/145871698x0x827135/90332B15-F6AE-4F44-B634-624BE548291E/Tesla_Motors_Q1_15_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: NewbieD on May 12, 2015, 11:32:16 AM
About $1b in preorders for the Powerwall already:
http://www.theverge.com/2015/5/6/8561931/tesla-38000-powerwall-preorders-announced

Preorders are not binding but $700m or so is from companies.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 12, 2015, 11:34:27 AM
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 12, 2015, 11:39:09 AM
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.

I think the 70D is awesome, but isn't it a little early to name it "Car of the 21st Century"?   Are they really that confident that there won't be something more amazing in say 2075 or 2095?  We already have the best car which will be produced this century only 15 years in?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 12, 2015, 11:40:19 AM
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.

I think the 70D is awesome, but isn't it a little early to name it "Car of the 21st Century"?   Are they really that confident that there won't be something more amazing in say 2075 or 2095?  We already have the best car which will be produced this century only 15 years in?

It's a marketing term, you are being too literal. Basically it stands for "we really, really like this one, we think it's what the future should be".
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on May 12, 2015, 11:51:47 AM
http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2015-tesla-model-s-70d-instrumented-test-review

New 70D named "Car of the 21st century" by Car and Driver.

I think the 70D is awesome, but isn't it a little early to name it "Car of the 21st Century"?   Are they really that confident that there won't be something more amazing in say 2075 or 2095?  We already have the best car which will be produced this century only 15 years in?

It's a marketing term, you are being too literal. Basically it stands for "we really, really like this one, we think it's what the future should be".

Yeah maybe.  The funny part is that I think they could be right.   I think the Tesla Model S could be the Car of the 21st Century in the same way that the Model T was the car of the 20th century, because it changed the game completely.   I just think it is too early to use the phrase, because it is too early to tell.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on May 14, 2015, 05:27:56 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-elon-musk-spacex/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 02, 2015, 06:35:11 PM
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jschembs on June 02, 2015, 10:51:40 PM
Thanks Liberty. You and I don't agree on TSLA (while I agree Elon is a hell of a genius), but continuously being able to read contrary views is very helpful.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 10, 2015, 12:56:23 PM
Video of the 2015 AGM:

http://www.teslamotors.com/2015shareholdermeeting
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on June 10, 2015, 01:03:00 PM
Video of the 2015 AGM:
http://www.teslamotors.com/2015shareholdermeeting

There is a transcript here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3248116-tesla-motorss-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-hosts-2015-annual-shareholder-meeting-transcript?part=single


One of the interesting things that Musk said:

"I am very happy to announce that we’ve dramatically increased the power capability of the Powerwall. So it’s actually going to go from having 2 kilowatts steady, 3.3 kilowatt peak to a 7 kilowatt power, 5 kilowatt steady, price is unchanged. So, it basically more than doubled the power output of the Powerpack and the price is going to stay the same."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on June 15, 2015, 10:17:11 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=em-subs_digest&utm_campaign=teslaweekly.com&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Tesla_Weekly_41&v=5nMcJxA3lto

Elon Musk and JB Straubel discuss their vision of the energy future.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 13, 2015, 04:40:37 PM
http://blog.geoffralston.com/the-electric-car

Interesting read. I'm not sure I would go that far about the whole gas station thing, but I do agree that things will likely happen much faster than most expect once a few tipping points are reached (probably $30k, 200 miles range, and all the other benefits of EV over gasoline, combined).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TheAiGuy on July 14, 2015, 04:34:13 AM
It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

I do find the "tipping-point" argument interesting though. If the economics starts being favor of the electric car vs gasoline (like it already is in many places for solar), I think I buy his argument about an inflection point where the infrastructure will start to switch rapidly as it won't be economic to support two car ecosystems for extended periods of time.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Ham Hockers on July 14, 2015, 04:54:53 AM
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/the-electric-vehicle-tipping-point.html
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Hielko on July 14, 2015, 05:27:01 AM
I think he is completely wrong about the gas station thing. Yes, gas stations are not a massively profitable business to own, but that is because the profits are captured by other parties in the chain. Gas stations have an insane amount of revenue/day with a very high gross profit margin if you look at the whole chain (especially if the producer has low-cost oil). I don't see them disappearing anytime soon.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 14, 2015, 05:29:29 AM
It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TheAiGuy on July 14, 2015, 06:51:21 AM
It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

It's not that people don't care about things like that -- it's that it's a rich person's problem. Most people (american's at least) are forced to buy cars to go to work, pick up their kids, go to the grocery store, etc. Cars are major expenses and people are very price sensitive.

I'd play the bear here, but I haven't done my homework on this one. It is certainly possible that EV's will be cost and functionally competitive with gas engines in 10 years, and that will push people to adopt EVs and abandoned gas engines.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 14, 2015, 07:43:18 AM
It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

It's not that people don't care about things like that -- it's that it's a rich person's problem. Most people (american's at least) are forced to buy cars to go to work, pick up their kids, go to the grocery store, etc. Cars are major expenses and people are very price sensitive.

I'd play the bear here, but I haven't done my homework on this one. It is certainly possible that EV's will be cost and functionally competitive with gas engines in 10 years, and that will push people to adopt EVs and abandoned gas engines.

There's no reason why EVs can't be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles, and eventually cheaper. In fact, they are mechanically a lot simpler. An electric motor the size of a watermelon, a bunch of batteries that are getting better and cheaper every year, some power electronics and software to control it all... Compared to dozens and dozens of moving parts and fluids, explosions and toxic gases, 70-80% of the energy in the fuel being wasted as heat... Internal combustion engines are such a dirty hack, it's a wonder they even work at all. They were the best we had for a long time and we've done wonderful things to make them perform as well as they do now, but they're still uncompetitive with electric motors as soon as you have good enough batteries.

As with almost everything else in the modern world, electricity is simply a more elegant way to do things.. Just a question of time before it happens.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TheAiGuy on July 14, 2015, 08:18:51 AM
It was interesting. I think the author was too polyannaish about switching ("fun to drive", "quiet" and "roomy" are basically not real things, you can get them in gas cars and that won't drive adoption, especially among the price conscious).

Apparently there's still quite a bit of difference. It's qualitative, not just a question of degrees. People with Model S say that nothing comes close, and some have driven more expensive exotic cars. You just can't compare the gearless immediate torque and low-center of gravity (battery in the floor) to anything that is ICE-powered.

Price is the main thing. But what when good EVs with long range are similarly priced to gasoline cars?

It's not that people don't care about things like that -- it's that it's a rich person's problem. Most people (american's at least) are forced to buy cars to go to work, pick up their kids, go to the grocery store, etc. Cars are major expenses and people are very price sensitive.

I'd play the bear here, but I haven't done my homework on this one. It is certainly possible that EV's will be cost and functionally competitive with gas engines in 10 years, and that will push people to adopt EVs and abandoned gas engines.

There's no reason why EVs can't be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles, and eventually cheaper. In fact, they are mechanically a lot simpler. An electric motor the size of a watermelon, a bunch of batteries that are getting better and cheaper every year, some power electronics and software to control it all... Compared to dozens and dozens of moving parts and fluids, explosions and toxic gases, 70-80% of the energy in the fuel being wasted as heat... Internal combustion engines are such a dirty hack, it's a wonder they even work at all. They were the best we had for a long time and we've done wonderful things to make them perform as well as they do now, but they're still uncompetitive with electric motors as soon as you have good enough batteries.

As with almost everything else in the modern world, electricity is simply a more elegant way to do things.. Just a question of time before it happens.

I wasn't disagreeing.

It does seem like long term, the efficiency gains of an electric motor will outweigh the energy density of gas, at least in the consumer automotive industry, and people will buy EVs en mass. The bear case isn't that EVs don't beat internal combustion engines, but that people drive less, or more mundane things like Tesla's ability to drive good returns on capital in a capital intensive industry. I'm not sure how much I buy the former.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 14, 2015, 08:32:03 AM
I wasn't disagreeing.

It does seem like long term, the efficiency gains of an electric motor will outweigh the energy density of gas, at least in the consumer automotive industry, and people will buy EVs en mass. The bear case isn't that EVs don't beat internal combustion engines, but that people drive less, or more mundane things like Tesla's ability to drive good returns on capital in a capital intensive industry. I'm not sure how much I buy the former.

I suppose it all depends what the discussion we're having is. Is it about Tesla succeeding? Is it about Tesla stock being a good investment at this price? Is it about EVs replacing gasoline cars? etc.

Personally, I was more talking about Tesla succeeding at its stated aim, which is to catalyze a move to electric cars, and about EVs replacing gasoline cars. I don't really have an opinion on Tesla's stock, or whether the whole auto industry will be in trouble because fewer cars are sold over time (but the ones that are, I think, will eventually be electric).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: TheAiGuy on July 14, 2015, 09:22:24 AM

I suppose it all depends what the discussion we're having is. Is it about Tesla succeeding? Is it about Tesla stock being a good investment at this price? Is it about EVs replacing gasoline cars? etc.

Personally, I was more talking about Tesla succeeding at its stated aim, which is to catalyze a move to electric cars, and about EVs replacing gasoline cars. I don't really have an opinion on Tesla's stock, or whether the whole auto industry will be in trouble because fewer cars are sold over time (but the ones that are, I think, will eventually be electric).

Oh, yeah. Completely agree.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on July 16, 2015, 07:09:59 AM
I don't think Tesla has anything to fear from GM, Ford, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, etc, these companies are big, but move at glacial speeds and will simply go away if there is a shift away from ICE vehicles and to electric vehicles.  Maybe they will survive making pickup trucks and heavier vehicles, or selling old fashioned cars to old people who don't want one of those newfangled cars all the young people are driving (i.e. the market Mercury, Oldsmobile, Cadillac, etc are serving already).


However there are a few startups popping up that seem to have funding and are hiring a significant number of people.


http://wot.motortrend.com/1507_new_california_based_electric_car_company_emerges_faraday_future.html

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/exclusive-stealthy-ev-startup-atieva-ramps-up-hiring-including-many-top-ex-tesla-engineers/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: boilermaker75 on July 16, 2015, 07:20:17 AM

There's no reason why EVs can't be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles, and eventually cheaper. In fact, they are mechanically a lot simpler. An electric motor the size of a watermelon, a bunch of batteries that are getting better and cheaper every year, some power electronics and software to control it all... Compared to dozens and dozens of moving parts and fluids, explosions and toxic gases, 70-80% of the energy in the fuel being wasted as heat... Internal combustion engines are such a dirty hack, it's a wonder they even work at all. They were the best we had for a long time and we've done wonderful things to make them perform as well as they do now, but they're still uncompetitive with electric motors as soon as you have good enough batteries.

As with almost everything else in the modern world, electricity is simply a more elegant way to do things.. Just a question of time before it happens.

Plus there is the acceleration from an electric car. The one time I was in a Tesla I felt like I was in a rocket when the driver floored it.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: matthewd98 on July 17, 2015, 04:48:31 AM
There's no reason why EVs can't be cost competitive with gasoline vehicles, and eventually cheaper. In fact, they are mechanically a lot simpler. An electric motor the size of a watermelon, a bunch of batteries that are getting better and cheaper every year, some power electronics and software to control it all... Compared to dozens and dozens of moving parts and fluids, explosions and toxic gases, 70-80% of the energy in the fuel being wasted as heat... Internal combustion engines are such a dirty hack, it's a wonder they even work at all. They were the best we had for a long time and we've done wonderful things to make them perform as well as they do now, but they're still uncompetitive with electric motors as soon as you have good enough batteries.

As with almost everything else in the modern world, electricity is simply a more elegant way to do things.. Just a question of time before it happens.

Most people don't know that electric cars were actually more common than gasoline cars in the early 1900s. The most common car the at the time was the external combustion engine (aka steam engine) car, followed by the electric car and in last was the internal combustion engine (aka gasoline engine) car. The only reason the gasoline engine took off what was because of the large influx of capital that went into the oil industry due to technological advances which allowed for easy and less costly extraction of oil. Ultimately, the price of a technology depends on the amount of money invested in developing and improving it. Now that batteries are more commonly used than back then, the shift to electric cars will inevitably happen and it's only a matter of time till prices come down IMO.

Plus there is the acceleration from an electric car. The one time I was in a Tesla I felt like I was in a rocket when the driver floored it.

That's because electric motors have all their torque available at 0 rpm -- it's a characteristic of AC induction motor which is used in the Tesla. The trade-off is the car tops out around 250km/h and it accelerates slowly at high speeds.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 17, 2015, 05:57:59 AM
The trade-off is the car tops out around 250km/h and it accelerates slowly at high speeds.

At those speeds, it's more a question of going for a gearless design. Add a gear or two and top speed could be higher, but what's the point really? I also wouldn't say that it "accelerates slowly at high speeds", but I guess it always depends what you compare it to :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: matthewd98 on July 17, 2015, 06:10:05 AM
At those speeds, it's more a question of going for a gearless design. Add a gear or two and top speed could be higher, but what's the point really? I also wouldn't say that it "accelerates slowly at high speeds", but I guess it always depends what you compare it to :)

Should of been more specific, I was comparing it to a car with similar specs (torque & hp). It's still quite fast to get to top speed compared to an average car. And you're right, there's really no point of going past 250km/h, let alone ~150km/h lol.

Not sure if a gearbox quite works on a car like that due to the ridiculous amount of torque. From what I understood, they had one with 2 gears on the Roadster, but it was always locked in second gear. They eventually dropped it because of "durability issues".
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 17, 2015, 06:26:14 AM
At those speeds, it's more a question of going for a gearless design. Add a gear or two and top speed could be higher, but what's the point really? I also wouldn't say that it "accelerates slowly at high speeds", but I guess it always depends what you compare it to :)

Should of been more specific, I was comparing it to a car with similar specs (torque & hp). It's still quite fast to get to top speed compared to an average car. And you're right, there's really no point of going past 250km/h, let alone ~150km/h lol.

Not sure if a gearbox quite works on a car like that due to the ridiculous amount of torque. From what I understood, they had one with 2 gears on the Roadster, but it was always locked in second gear. They eventually dropped it because of "durability issues".

I think the problems with the original Roadster transmission was mostly because of their supplier. Tesla was a very small company at the time and the supplier didn't take them seriously and had the C-team to work on that part, and it just sucked.

Pretty sure in-house engineering Tesla team could make it work. It's not like there aren't very high-performance transmissions out there that have to handle a lot, and Tesla has very fine-grained control over the amount of torque that is being produced, so they could tune everything in software to make sure everything stays within the tolerances of a hypothetical transmission.

But in any case, I don't think they need one, so they'll probably stay 1-speed for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: matthewd98 on July 17, 2015, 07:31:28 AM
I think the problems with the original Roadster transmission was mostly because of their supplier. Tesla was a very small company at the time and the supplier didn't take them seriously and had the C-team to work on that part, and it just sucked.

Pretty sure in-house engineering Tesla team could make it work. It's not like there aren't very high-performance transmissions out there that have to handle a lot, and Tesla has very fine-grained control over the amount of torque that is being produced, so they could tune everything in software to make sure everything stays within the tolerances of a hypothetical transmission.

But in any case, I don't think they need one, so they'll probably stay 1-speed for the foreseeable future.

Interesting point! Could very well be, but I can't say for sure. I wish I knew more on the topic of gear boxes and transmissions overall, but my knowledge is limited in that area. I know a lot about electric motors though since I study electrical engineering.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on July 17, 2015, 07:40:08 AM
I think the problems with the original Roadster transmission was mostly because of their supplier. Tesla was a very small company at the time and the supplier didn't take them seriously and had the C-team to work on that part, and it just sucked.

Pretty sure in-house engineering Tesla team could make it work. It's not like there aren't very high-performance transmissions out there that have to handle a lot, and Tesla has very fine-grained control over the amount of torque that is being produced, so they could tune everything in software to make sure everything stays within the tolerances of a hypothetical transmission.

But in any case, I don't think they need one, so they'll probably stay 1-speed for the foreseeable future.

Interesting point! Could very well be, but I can't say for sure. I wish I knew more on the topic of gear boxes and transmissions overall, but my knowledge is limited in that area. I know a lot about electric motors though since I study electrical engineering.

The recent biography of Musk has good sections on this. Originally they thought things would be easy, just buy a Lotus platform and get suppliers to make the parts you need, put it all together, voilà!

In fact, suppliers sucked and caused delays, they had to do the work in-house on many things after all, and they had to modify something like 90% of the parts in the original Lotus platform, so they might as well have started from scratch..
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 05, 2015, 07:17:13 PM
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/523463770x0x843991/DCDCCFDA-0709-405B-931A-B2F48A224CE8/Tesla_Q2_2015_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 27, 2015, 06:49:55 AM
Ha, they broke the Consumer Reports rating system  8)

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/tesla-model-s-p85d-breaks-consumer-reports-ratings-system
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 29, 2015, 08:29:36 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=em-subs_digest&utm_campaign=teslaweekly.com&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Tesla_Weekly_41&v=5nMcJxA3lto

Elon Musk and JB Straubel discuss their vision of the energy future.

Straubel says that they would be disappointed at Tesla if battery costs were not under $100 per kWh by the end of this decade.

So about $8,500 for the batteries in my Tesla.  So it won't be expensive to replace depleted batteries.

So their margins on new cars sold would be very high in that scenario, given today's margins with expensive batteries.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on August 29, 2015, 09:15:55 AM
So their margins on new cars sold would be very high in that scenario, given today's margins with expensive batteries.

More likely new car prices will drop correspondingly.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: gary17 on August 29, 2015, 10:09:16 AM
I think the margin depends on if tesla will be making Porsches or Honda Civics of battery cars IMO
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: no_free_lunch on August 29, 2015, 11:33:29 AM
Yeah I would assume the margins will differ depending on the car.

However, as a crude comparison Honda has gross margins of 23-24%, which is about where tesla is at.   Harley Davidson is closer to 40%.   If tesla can stay ahead with design and features I see no reason their margins can't go up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on August 29, 2015, 07:45:58 PM
It's the Apple model. If they can stay differentiated and desirable enough to a certain segment of the market, they can retain a lot of the value despite falling battery prices. But if they aren't much better/different than anything else, they'll have to compete on price and the margins won't rise much. It's harder to do with cars than with pocket computers, but it's doable.

If in 5 years a Model S is better than any $60,000-100,000 car on the market, they can charge 60-100k for it even if the battery costs them $8000 at that point rather than $30,000-40,000 now or whatever.

Commodities are priced on production costs.

Differentiated products are priced on the value they deliver and what the market will bear.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on August 29, 2015, 08:23:38 PM

Tesla will target Porsche’s gross profit margin of 50%, which the German automaker reported for the past few years prior to when it was acquired by Volskwagen.

http://insideevs.com/tesla-sets-gross-profit-margin-target-at-porsches-almost-unheard-of-50/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 14, 2015, 07:45:50 PM
Porsche all-electric car:

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-porsche-electric-sports-car-20150914-story.html


The German sports car company has announced its all-electric Mission E sports car. The concept vehicle, which will be on sale within five years, boasts a 600 horsepower motor, a range of more than 300 miles, and a recharging time of under 15 minutes.

Using the auto industry's first 800-volt electrical system, the Mission be will be able to charge to 80% of total battery capacity in 15 minutes -- when, that is, a system of 800-volt charging stations are built.

It will also feature some dramatically futuristic electronics. An eye-tracking system, able to sense what part of the dashboard the driver is looking at, will hi


This part sounds childish though (oh yeah, this has nothing to do with Tesla... right):

"We don’t do a car because Telsa has done a Model S," he said. "We have our own plans. The time was not right before now to bring a pure battery car onto the market. But now the time is right."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 29, 2015, 08:06:20 PM
http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx

Live stream of Tesla handing out the first Model X signature models to customers.  In case anyone wanted to see what it's like.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 30, 2015, 05:39:31 AM
http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx

Live stream of Tesla handing out the first Model X signature models to customers.  In case anyone wanted to see what it's like.

0-60 in 3.2 seconds if you get the P90D version of the Model X.

I think that's relatively good for an SUV?  Does the Cayenne do that?

"The Model X is expected to get 5-star NHTSA crash safety ratings in all categories, Musk said, including rollover avoidance. It would be the first SUV or minivan to do so."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/29/autos/tesla-model-x/index.html?iid=hp-grid-dom

I think one of the nice things that Tesla is doing is dragging the rest of the sluggards across the finish line -- they won't be able to sit back and continue to make these death traps for much longer without working to improve their safety.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 30, 2015, 05:48:13 AM
Not even close from Porsche at 4.5 seconds 0-60 at the same price point.

I really like how they avoid using model year numbers from the traditional point of view.  My 2013 Tesla will be getting improved performance via a software update when v7 rolls out.  Really incredible what they are doing.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 30, 2015, 08:03:22 AM
Neat feature:

Quote
A medical grade HEPA filter strips outside air of pollen, bacteria, viruses and pollution before circulating it into the cabin. There are three modes: circulate with outside air, re-circulate inside air and a bioweapon defense mode that creates positive pressure inside the cabin to protect occupants.

And of course, the 17-speaker stereo goes to eleven. At least Musk is never boring  8)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Phaceliacapital on September 30, 2015, 09:50:21 AM
If I ever turn gay, it's for this guy.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: tombgrt on September 30, 2015, 09:51:48 AM
Holy shit that launch event was sweet to watch. Most impressed with overall safety personally.

Musk was chuckling through the whole presentation. Hilarious.  ;D
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 30, 2015, 10:18:53 AM
I know that investors point to the difference in valuation between Tesla and GM/Fiat/Ford but I think it misses the overall difference of the two "sub-sectors" if you will.  Tesla is not pursuing GAAP profits (nor will it ever as long as Musk runs the show), it's going to keep reinvesting massive amounts of cash flow back into making other cars look like antiquated pieces of metal.  And Tesla will pressure all the other auto companies to kill their profits to produce cars that are sustainable and fun to own.

You might not like the valuation on Tesla, but Musk is out to destroy the profits of the other auto makers.  Musk has the kind of employees that believe in that goal and will work longer/harder to make it happen even if it involves less pay.  It's a very unique situation that investors miss when they try and compare the valuation gap.  If Tesla is successful, you won't see anywhere near the level of profitability in other auto makers that you see today.

I only mention this because Pabrai mentioned in his last meeting how crazy the valuation is on Tesla versus GM or Fiat.  Well yeah, but you also have to understand that Musk is trying to destroy those other companies.  That's a real risk to shorting Tesla or owning other automakers for the long-term.  We've seen this before in another low margin, capital intensive industry (Amazon), and there is a decent chance we're seeing the same thing in the car industry.

Like Vance mentioned in his book, when you really sit back and look at what auto commercials try to do to make their products look amazing, they involved things like dancing hampsters or dogs in the car or anything other than how great the new innovation is.  It's an industry ripe for massive changes where the long storied giants are moving at a glacial pace.  Musk is able to put a biohazard or ludicrous/maximum plaid mode which would never happen at GM.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 30, 2015, 10:24:25 AM
I've never owned Tesla, I mostly follow it for the technology and products rather than for financial stuff, but I think that what the shorts are missing is the ambition gap between this company and the regular carmakers.

It's a bit like those who thought that Bezos just wanted to sell books online. His ambition was so much larger than that...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jschembs on September 30, 2015, 10:33:32 AM
I know that investors point to the difference in valuation between Tesla and GM/Fiat/Ford but I think it misses the overall difference of the two "sub-sectors" if you will.  Tesla is not pursuing GAAP profits (nor will it ever as long as Musk runs the show), it's going to keep reinvesting massive amounts of cash flow back into making other cars look like antiquated pieces of metal.  And Tesla will pressure all the other auto companies to kill their profits to produce cars that are sustainable and fun to own.

You might not like the valuation on Tesla, but Musk is out to destroy the profits of the other auto makers.  Musk has the kind of employees that believe in that goal and will work longer/harder to make it happen even if it involves less pay.  It's a very unique situation that investors miss when they try and compare the valuation gap.  If Tesla is successful, you won't see anywhere near the level of profitability in other auto makers that you see today.

I only mention this because Pabrai mentioned in his last meeting how crazy the valuation is on Tesla versus GM or Fiat.  Well yeah, but you also have to understand that Musk is trying to destroy those other companies.  That's a real risk to shorting Tesla or owning other automakers for the long-term.  We've seen this before in another low margin, capital intensive industry (Amazon), and there is a decent chance we're seeing the same thing in the car industry.

Like Vance mentioned in his book, when you really sit back and look at what auto commercials try to do to make their products look amazing, they involved things like dancing hampsters or dogs in the car or anything other than how great the new innovation is.  It's an industry ripe for massive changes where the long storied giants are moving at a glacial pace.  Musk is able to put a biohazard or ludicrous/maximum plaid mode which would never happen at GM.

As an on-and-off short, the only thing that scares me is the model 3 gaining traction in the market. And even then, your bolded statement above raises a point that should equally be considered by longs at this valuation.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on September 30, 2015, 10:44:55 AM
I own a tiny position in TSLA to support Musk.

We need Elon clone in biotech/drugs/medical devices. That's a sector that needs serious cleaning up.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 30, 2015, 10:47:47 AM
The Model 3:

It will likely be a $35,000 car that will do something like 0-60 in 4 seconds and win the highest marks on safety in it's class.

Nah, nobody will want that.
.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jschembs on September 30, 2015, 10:53:01 AM
The Model 3:

It will likely be a $35,000 car that will do something like 0-60 in 4 seconds and win the highest marks on safety in it's class.

Nah, nobody will want that.
.

Eric, I don't doubt it will receive great fanfare. Questions of when and at what level of profitability to shareholders are important, no?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 30, 2015, 10:59:38 AM
I own a tiny position in TSLA to support Musk.

We need Elon clone in biotech/drugs/medical devices. That's a sector that needs serious cleaning up.

Elizabeth Holmes seems to have the smarts, the ambition, the work ethics.. Time will tell if she succeeds in making a mark on her industry, but at least she's working on a big problem that could help humanity, and for that I wish her the best. Elon is 44 and she's 31, so she has about a little over a decade to show her stuff.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: merkhet on September 30, 2015, 11:08:38 AM
The Model 3:

It will likely be a $35,000 car that will do something like 0-60 in 4 seconds and win the highest marks on safety in it's class.

Nah, nobody will want that.
.

If they can hit that price point, then, yea, it'll be hugely in demand. However, what's the likelihood that they can actually hit that price point?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Jurgis on September 30, 2015, 11:14:13 AM
I own a tiny position in TSLA to support Musk.

We need Elon clone in biotech/drugs/medical devices. That's a sector that needs serious cleaning up.

Elizabeth Holmes seems to have the smarts, the ambition, the work ethics.. Time will tell if she succeeds in making a mark on her industry, but at least she's working on a big problem that could help humanity, and for that I wish her the best. Elon is 44 and she's 31, so she has about a little over a decade to show her stuff.

Right, I know about her and wish her the best too. We will see how her company works out. :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 30, 2015, 11:26:05 AM
If they can hit that price point, then, yea, it'll be hugely in demand. However, what's the likelihood that they can actually hit that price point?

Pretty high if the Gigafactory works out. Cut the cost of the batteries significantly + economies of scale from manufacturing a much larger number of vehicles, and it seems pretty plausible.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 30, 2015, 11:40:50 AM
What I was mostly getting at is how stupid it is to value Tesla on a price to earnings multiple.  It's illogical at this point in it's history.  This is a company which was insolvent around two years ago as a result of incredibly difficult engineering problems, and will continue to invest massively for it's future.  How do you even look at this from a P/E standpoint?

The question is how you want to value the company.  Maybe over the short-term it's overvalued based on the output of the next couple years.  But it's impossible to know whether it's a good short based on the output for the next ten or twenty years.  I've thought about this and I think the easiest way to value the company is based on the cost to start Tesla from scratch.  You also have to be able to hire the best people to work for you company.  That in itself is a feat.  J.B. Straubel is incredibly smart and hard working and probably knows battery tech better than any non-Tesla electrical engineers.  He lives and breathes electric cars and he's decided to team up with Elon because he thinks Elon gives him the best probability of success.  Tesla also bought the Fremont plant for almost nothing (which I have toured a few times).  Have you seen the new Fisker production facility?  It's a joke.  There are so many intangibles that are hard to price in the replacement value of Tesla.  How much will Apple have to spend to create this from scratch?

Then you have to add up all the future cash that Tesla will be able produce and reinvest.  Taken together I don't know how that's worth less than $15 billion or so in an industry this large.  So what if it trades for 2x the value of what we know today?  In a few years that value will move up and it makes shorting this incredibly dangerous.  Maybe you catch some upside on a short as people get nervous but long-term just seems like a terrible idea.

Buying the stock isn't a sure thing but at least the risk stops when the stock hits zero.  I remember watching an interview with Elon where he talked about a 2008 lunch with Charlie Munger and how heartbreaking it was to hear his hero tell him the 30 different ways he was going to fail.  This is a guy who has an insane pain and risk threshold to solve very difficult problems and we've already seen Tesla survive the times that should have killed them.  Maybe it doesn't make sense to go long at this valuation if you don't agree with the long-term potential, but it makes absolutely no sense to go short.  The slower the other auto companies are to make this shift, the riskier the Tesla short becomes.  And based on what I've seen so far, they aren't moving very fast.

Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 30, 2015, 11:50:14 AM
If they can hit that price point, then, yea, it'll be hugely in demand. However, what's the likelihood that they can actually hit that price point?

Pretty high if the Gigafactory works out. Cut the cost of the batteries significantly + economies of scale from manufacturing a much larger number of vehicles, and it seems pretty plausible.

This has also been the Elon playbook across all his companies.  He tries to see where technology might be in the future (cost of solar going down, battery technology improve/cost going down, network capacity to handle money, etc..) and then matches up the growth of the company to that cost curve or what the technology allows.  The gigafactory will be the first time he's able to influence that cost curve, aside from creating a reason for more battery tech R&D.  I think a base model can easily get to $35k, but when people add all the cool features they want that's where it might cost close to $50k without tax incentives.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on September 30, 2015, 11:53:40 AM
I still think there's a 50/50 chance that Apple buys Tesla at some point.

Musk won't want to do this job full-time forever, he's going to Mars. But he really cares about his goal being accomplished (making sustainable transport mainstream) and about the products staying excellent over the long-term. Apple is much better aligned with the Tesla culture and technology than Google (which almost bought Tesla a few years ago). In fact, Musk has clearly based a lot of the Tesla approach on Apple's approach.

If he sold Tesla to Apple, he'd know that the culture/products has the best chance of staying good, and he'd back his large scale goals with the best balance sheet in the world.

By buying Tesla, Apple would not only buy its fiercest competitor for the high-end in EVs, but it would also combine two very good teams that would probably do better things together than apart (lots of ex-tesla employees at Apple and vice versa anyway) and get the gigafactory supply.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 30, 2015, 12:11:54 PM
The Model 3:

It will likely be a $35,000 car that will do something like 0-60 in 4 seconds and win the highest marks on safety in it's class.

Nah, nobody will want that.
.

Eric, I don't doubt it will receive great fanfare. Questions of when and at what level of profitability to shareholders are important, no?

Yes, and with regards to shareholders, and the stock...  I just want to comment that I don't see this as a value investing stock because it's track record is more ahead of us than behind us.

I think it's speculative just as much for short sellers as for longs.

It isn't a company with a long established track record where you can more accurately grasp it's future returns (and hence IV) -- when you have such a company that's relatively predictable, then you have some degree of insight into when it's expensive or cheap.

This stock is loaded with biases anywhere from "they can do anything" to "it's an auto company and it's worthless based on their present sales volumes which are unlikely to get off the ground with any sustainable margins".  There are more tempered opinions in between, but I say just call a spade a spade -- it's speculation either way.

I really admire Buffett because he doesn't guess around on these kind of things and I'm trying to aspire to be more like him (I've not even close yet though).
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: thepupil on September 30, 2015, 12:13:57 PM

I am one of those idiotic short sellers who lost 300 bps or so shorting this in 2013, broke even in 2014...moved on..at the very least i knew to not size it to a crippling amount.

I still have $100 of risk in that if TSLA builds 100K cars in 2016 I donate $100 to sanjeev's charity. Ericopoly will donate if less.

Eric, it looks like it will be close!!!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: jschembs on September 30, 2015, 12:14:30 PM
The Model 3:

It will likely be a $35,000 car that will do something like 0-60 in 4 seconds and win the highest marks on safety in it's class.

Nah, nobody will want that.
.

Eric, I don't doubt it will receive great fanfare. Questions of when and at what level of profitability to shareholders are important, no?

Yes, and with regards to shareholders, and the stock...  I just want to comment that I don't see this as a value investing stock because it's track record is more ahead of us than behind us.

I think it's speculative just as much for short sellers as for longs.

It isn't a company with a long established track record where you can more accurately grasp it's future returns (and hence IV) -- when you have such a company that's relatively predictable, then you have some degree of insight into when it's expensive or cheap.

This stock is loaded with biases anywhere from "they can do anything" to "it's an auto company and it's worthless based on their present sales volumes which are unlikely to get off the ground with any sustainable margins".  There are more tempered opinions in between, but I say just call a spade a spade -- it's speculation either way.

I really admire Buffett because he doesn't guess around on these kind of things and I'm trying to aspire to be more like him (I've not even close yet though).

Good points, don't disagree with anything you said.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 30, 2015, 02:48:40 PM
Tesla has a habit of rolling out a product with flaws and then fixing them later.  I'm not exactly sure that the culture of Apple and Tesla would fit in that well based on how quickly Elon likes to operate.  Elon is also very close with Sergey and Page, not including Google's 5% stake in SpaceX.  There are some barriers to integrating with Apple aside from the capital intensive nature of what Tesla is doing.  But who knows.... It seems like Elon has very fluid relationships with various friends and colleagues so nothing is off the table.

SpaceX will require a lot of capital to get to Mars, so I have always expected Musk to maximize the value of Tesla to give him the best odds of getting to Mars.  He's no dummy when it comes to finance and he plans fairly far into the future.  A funny e-mail he sent to SpaceX employees who were complaining about remaining private (valuation is now over $70 btw):

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3f4idq/elons_email_to_spacex_employees_regarding_taking/
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: ERICOPOLY on September 30, 2015, 02:51:28 PM
]
My 2013 Tesla will be getting improved performance via a software update when v7 rolls out.  Really incredible what they are doing.

I tried to find info on that.  Curious what area of performance is being improved?  I have a 2013 as well.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on September 30, 2015, 03:00:11 PM
http://electrek.co/2015/09/18/tesla-releases-second-version-of-its-beta-v7-0-software-update-with-autopilot/

The leaked release notes are at the bottom, RWD improvements are under "Additional Improvements."
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Phaceliacapital on September 30, 2015, 11:53:02 PM
It's a bit like those who thought that Bezos just wanted to sell books online. His ambition is so much larger than that...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: benhacker on October 01, 2015, 02:24:31 PM
For the record just shorted a few days back (first time for me for TSLA - love the company).

Agree with much of the bull thesis, just think that TSLA is in a highly reflexive stock situation, and while the assets being built I believe are truly valuable, I do not necessarily think they are as valuable as the EV (enterprise value :) ) of this company, combined with cash burn likely to come.

As a citizen, I love Elon and his various entities as they just burn cash hand over fist and do wonderful things for society and technology.  That makes them seem very very amazing when they can raise their cash at nice premiums to value / book / future cash or whatever, but I think the amount of cash TSLA consumes will not change with this stock price... so if it goes down, effective dilution will accelerate.

Of course it may not go down, it may go up.

I am speculating that now, at these prices, it is probably not a great idea to be long.

Also I tend to agree with Picasso on the Apple buyout likelihood... I don't think the culture is that great of a fit, I also am not sure that Apple really wants to own the factory here, but they do like control, and that may be a shift for them in a lot of areas, so maybe they do end up making the end product here as well with their own factories.

Anyway, I'm rooting for Elon!

Cheers,
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 01, 2015, 05:16:33 PM
Wait, you're rooting for Elon and like that he can raise capital at a good price but are shorting the stock? Or did I misread that?
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on October 01, 2015, 05:32:22 PM
Elon built up Tesla with about $100 million of his own capital plus multiple equity offerings between $17-33 from the private markets, aside from outside investments before the IPO.  If you look at what he's built today using a relatively small amount of capital, I don't think volatility in the share price affects his ambitions very much.  It might change how fast he can roll out his strategy, but it seems unlikely to dampen the prospects of the company.

One example would be the gigafactory.  He basically paid for it will a 6-7 year bond costing 0.5% with a stock conversion at $350 or so.  Tesla produces a 25% gross margin on the cars they sell, but they invest extra in other areas.  Elon himself said that if he wanted, Tesla could be profitable if they stopped investing in various areas.  I think Reuter's put out an article recently saying they lost $8k per vehicle sold.  That just isn't true.

The following two years will be the first time Tesla will earn between $1.5-2 billion of gross profit.  There will probably be equity raises once in a while but I think they can fund the vast majority of the projects from the existing product line.  There are other areas which may pay off, like Energy (powerwall) or infrastructure (Supercharger access to other EV's), or who knows what else. 

If the Model 3 kicks in and is successful then they probably will never need to issue capital again.  I would think that based on what they've accomplished during very difficult capital market conditions (2008, GM bankruptcy, IPO'd at 1/10th the current price, etc.) that raising capital isn't going to be a problem for them.  In fact the last equity offering resulted in the stock going up, not down.

But who knows.... I personally think it's hard to short a guy like Elon given how much adversity he's seen. 

By the way benhacker, what do you think your upside/downside on the short position?  I'm curious to your thinking because I find a lot of $30 price targets or so by the bears. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: benhacker on October 01, 2015, 07:52:20 PM
Hey Liberty,

Quote
Wait, you're rooting for Elon and like that he can raise capital at a good price but are shorting the stock? Or did I misread that?

I'll reframe my thinking and then answer at the end, maybe it wasn't clear.  I think the base case for investors today assumes very very good business outcomes, a reduction quickly in cash burn, hitting model 3 on schedule, and Gigafactory ramping as planned.  My view is that in that scenario, TSLA still needs to raise some more capital.

My guess says that the base case by bulls, is probably too optimistic.

My comment about rooting for Elon is simply this - I think / hope he will build some very nice for humanity, and I wish him luck.  However, I think (and again, I think Picasso is explicitly saying this) that Elon's goal is to change the world, not to make money.  I think this is 100% distinctly different than Bezos who was getting the comparison up thread (I have owned AMZN in the past, and I admire Bezos a lot)... Bezos is doing what he feels will maximize his long term returns... his time horizon is simply much longer than that of many so called value investors, so I think they miss(ed) what he was doing.  Conversely, I think many TSLA longs are missing what Elon is doing as well... I think he is explicitly exploiting capital markets (very very well) in all his businesses to build a better world.  However, I think he build what he aims to build regardless of capital price (as long as capital is available).

I do not believe he would build *less* with TSLA at $100 / share than he will with TSLA at $240 / share... which seems to be the implication.  I think that he will build the same, in fact he may accelerate sales of stock, reprice stock options, etc if the stock begins to drop... thus I think the valuation of the shares relative to my expectation of true value (an area we can disagree on of course) is in fact highly correlated to direction of the stock.  What I guess makes me different is that I feel like the stock price today is pricing in all the good things I mentioned, but *also* pricing in this positive reflexivity.

I think a few things have lead me to short right now:
1) Gas is at $2
2) Literally even the most clueless non-tech friends I have now understand Elon's vision and pitch me on SCTY and TSLA stock at every turn (I'm short SCTY as well, earlier this year, and higher)
3) It seems to me, there are few(er) folks involved in (statistically) high momentum / valuation names which I think bodes poorly for support for TSLA's stock in a downturn.
4) The market is generally weak, and Tesla even as a very volatile stock with a very wide DCF value, is not down nearly as much as I would have thought
5) I know many many folks who were short TSLA around $30, $60, $90, and $150, and I also know (personally) a few intelligent longs who clearly articulated the disruption that TSLA was wreaking on this industry and profited from their view -- in case of the bears, few I know have a position (TSLA is heavily shorted yes, but a lot of that is convert arb I believe) today because of their deep deep wounds.  For my friends who were long and strong... many are still long, but no long talk as much about TSLA, and not currently bullish on the current price.
6) Lastly, I felt during the recent downturn, funds were derisking by closing TSLA shorts which kept the stock higher than it otherwise would have been. (I only shorted a few days ago ~$247)

What these data points say to me is that in the near-ish term (call it 1 year or so - sorry to make such a bold non-fundamental prediction on this board, but shorting is a different animal than going long), I see many many reasons for the stock to go down, and I see a limited number of folks who are going to be interested to buy more or any Tesla for quite a few % down.   On the other hand, I see many many bears who still (foolishly) believe that TSLA is worth $30 / share because of "no profits" (idiots)... but these bears have dry powder in this name, and may want to "make it back the way they lost it".

If the market rallies 5-10% up and TSLA is flat, I'd probably close this short.  If TSLA announces a Model 3 pull in that was credible, I'd probably close this short, if oil prices go nuts up, I'd probably close this short.

But in absence of these things I hope to close this short maybe down 30-40% from here.  I think at that level, absent some big change (huge stock sale), I may feel less inclined to hold.  Tesla is most definitely (to me) worth >$30 just in option value.

Back to Liberty's question:

I hope Elon succeeds.  I think what it will take for him to succeed will still require a lot of capital.  He will raise that capital at prices I (as a short seller) will find attractive.  I also think he will succeed, but not as quickly as the bulls think.  Finally, as a short seller, I hope he succeeds in what I think his vision is, which is build an amazing technology company that makes only limited profits.  ;-)

Kind of using some hyperbole, but I hope you understand the gist.

As always guys, I hope my short selling tone is not the kind that turns folks off.  I've commented on LULU, HCG.T, and now TSLA (I've mentioned other, but these are the "high quality" ones) on these boards wrt to shorting.  Each one was / is a loved name by some / a few, and each one I feel was simply catastrophically overpriced and had catalysts to adjust downward in the timeframe I care about.

As a buddy of mine says, we can both be right if our timeframes are different. :)

I personally feel that the timeframes of many investors have extended out too far... it is no longer "long term" investing, in a lot of companies it grows into something more resembling "faith".

Tesla is valued on faith in Elon, IMO.

Sorry for the length, hope that captures my thoughts accurately. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on October 01, 2015, 09:05:40 PM
I would have to agree that you have a strong thesis for the next several months.  Trading the sentiment against expectations on Tesla has almost always been the best way to time short-term movements.  I sold all my shares over the past year and so I hope you're right because I've wanted to reload somewhere in the $12-15B valuation range.

I'm curious to how you view Elon as exploiting the capital markets?  He's significantly participated in the last two equity offerings and massively diluting the shares would reduce his control over the company.  He's been in two different situations before where not having control nearly cost him his companies (PayPal and Tesla).  In the case of SpaceX, he could take the company public but he doesn't.  He has stated a couple times that he views Tesla stock as short-term overpriced (while also saying over the long-term he could possibly get the company to a size of Apple), which is not what someone says if they're trying to sell stock to the public.

Elon mentioned in a talk once that minimizing profits in a disruptive and attractive business actually creates the most value over the long-term.  And he's going to need a lot of capital to get to Mars which might not come 100% from SpaceX.  I personally think that he looks very closely at maximizing the value of Tesla.  Especially since massively diluting his stake and minimizing the value of Tesla will open up the possibility of losing his company and losing Tesla's mission to force change on the industry.

But the next several months are anyone's guess.  A massive recall, problems with the gigafactory, or who knows what else can really hurt the stock.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: benhacker on October 01, 2015, 09:39:33 PM
Hey Picasso,

Quote
I'm curious to how you view Elon as exploiting the capital markets?

I guess this is a matter of terminology.  "Exploiting" is a loaded term.  I guess the best way to frame this is irregardless of the returns capital providers have received by investing with SCTY / TSLA (I'll ignore Space X as I don't really know enough financial details to say something super intelligent), I think the risks they have been taking have been higher than otherwise would have been required (it's basically venture capital).  Now, I think the converse of my statement is compelling, which is that Musk is really doing what capital markets want, he is creating value, so you can argue that someone shoveling him money at a certain valuation is overpaying or not,  it's the issue of whether he builds something of value over time.  So if he is taking smart venture capital risks, and the market is will to accept returns that are positive, but lower than venture capital class / risk returns, then it's really a win win.

I guess by "exploiting" what I mean is that Musk is highly promotional, and I think he raises funds at prices which would not be available to others of his ability with his infrastructure around him.  You could argue that is an invalid statement, because there is no comparable.  I would generally agree, but I stand by my statement.  And luckily, you lead me in like you are the straight man in a joke... :)

Quote
He has stated a couple times that he views Tesla stock as short-term overpriced (while also saying over the long-term he could possibly get the company to a size of Apple), which is not what someone says if they're trying to sell stock to the public.

Read that sentence again, and imagine it's any company other than Tesla, and you tell me if you agree with what you wrote.

*anyone* who thinks that sentence / sentiment / statement is NOT promotional, is drunk on Musk :) (zero offense intended, I think you are sharp, and clearly you aren't long now, so you are certainly as objective or more than I am given I have a position).

Musk has enough history of being very aggressive (and wrong / early) with his claims that I think he's generally acknowledged as being promotional and too aggressive (which in his industry and situation I think is the right side to error on), this is an area I didn't think I was contrarian on.

Keep me posted on your valuation thoughts though on this thread.  I love to hear new takes as the news flow on Tesla comes out.  It's a dynamic company I have and will follow for a long time regardless of my position in the stock.

Ben

PS - I did forget to mention recall risk so thanks for mentioning.  Not sure how big of a deal it is, probably not much, but who knows...
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Picasso on October 01, 2015, 10:30:11 PM
Elon is sort of an optimist, or what some would say promotional, because he projects on his team what he himself could do.  He gets the time frames off by a wide margin but he's generally been able to complete the task.  I think he understands the first principles and physics well, but getting it delegated through mortals causes delays for various reasons.  The autonomous driving capabilities are going to take longer than he stated for sure, and I know a lot of Tesla owners are upset by this.  I spoke with an engineer working on that team and you could tell how hard it was to get certain things to work.  They're trying to do a lot with hardware that isn't the $150k kit Google uses.

He also made the valuation comments separately.  I mean, I sort of think it isn't hard to argue that Tesla can be as big as Apple if they start selling half a million cars a year and disrupt the industry.  It was him thinking out loud on the potential valuation but maybe I am just drunk on Musk, ha!
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2015, 05:17:19 AM
Hey Liberty,

Quote
Wait, you're rooting for Elon and like that he can raise capital at a good price but are shorting the stock? Or did I misread that?

I'll reframe my thinking and then answer at the end, maybe it wasn't clear.  I think the base case for investors today assumes very very good business outcomes, a reduction quickly in cash burn, hitting model 3 on schedule, and Gigafactory ramping as planned.  My view is that in that scenario, TSLA still needs to raise some more capital.

My guess says that the base case by bulls, is probably too optimistic.

My comment about rooting for Elon is simply this - I think / hope he will build some very nice for humanity, and I wish him luck.  However, I think (and again, I think Picasso is explicitly saying this) that Elon's goal is to change the world, not to make money.


You do realize that by shorting you are in a tiny way inhibiting him from achieving his goals.  That is the root of Liberty's question.  When you hope someone succeeds at something you don't actively try to throw up a road block in their way simply because you think you are likely to make a little money doing it.  All Liberty was pointing out is that the two statements "I hope he  builds something very nice for humanity and I wish him luck" and "I'm shorting the stock" are at odds with one another.  The action of shorting the stock (again, in a tiny way) tries to inhibit  the outcome you are hoping for from happening.

  I think this is 100% distinctly different than Bezos who was getting the comparison up thread (I have owned AMZN in the past, and I admire Bezos a lot)... Bezos is doing what he feels will maximize his long term returns... his time horizon is simply much longer than that of many so called value investors, so I think they miss(ed) what he was doing.  Conversely, I think many TSLA longs are missing what Elon is doing as well... I think he is explicitly exploiting capital markets (very very well) in all his businesses to build a better world.  However, I think he build what he aims to build regardless of capital price (as long as capital is available).

You realize that these could be distinctions without a difference.  There is not necessarily any difference in outcome between someone who uses the capital markets to build something with an extreme long term view (on the order of a human lifetime) and someone who believes they are just using the capital markets to achieve something great for humanity.  The motivations may differ greatly, but both the actions they take and the long term outcome will likely be the similar. 
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: Liberty on October 02, 2015, 06:19:51 AM
 That's all I was saying. To me, it would cause cognitive dissonance if I was shorting something that I wished would succeed. If SpaceX ever goes public, and they're trying to keep it private but you never know, I couldn't on one hand find what they're doing amazing and exciting in root for them,  and then turn around and short their stock.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2015, 06:32:44 AM
That's all I was saying. To me, it would cause cognitive dissonance if I was shorting something that I wished would succeed. If SpaceX ever goes public, and they're trying to keep it private but you never know, I couldn't on one hand find what they're doing amazing and exciting in root for them,  and then turn around and short their stock.

A good way of stating this is that even if you weren't strong enough to move a massive object all by yourself, you still wouldn't lean on it in an attempt to push it one way if you were really hoping for it to move in the opposite direction.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: merkhet on October 02, 2015, 07:43:14 AM
Maybe it's a hedge. Like betting against your favorite sports team. If you lose your bet, at least you have the psychological benefit of having won the game. If you win your bet, at least you've won some money.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: benhacker on October 02, 2015, 07:45:16 AM
Oh I see Liberty, I understand your point clearly now.  I don't really have an answer for you.  The cognitive dissonance doesn't bother me, I guess because my view is that Musk will build what he will build (and there will be those ready to hand him money) at $240, or $50, or $1000 / share.  I may of course be wrong on that, but either way I think my size will hardly be a key factor (of course there is a negative affect near term).

I'll stop talking so much about being short, that probably will have more of an affect than me actually shorting given my puny size. :)
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2015, 07:47:26 AM
Maybe it's a hedge. Like betting against your favorite sports team. If you lose your bet, at least you have the psychological benefit of having won the game. If you win your bet, at least you've won some money.

The difference is that your bet against your team has no effect on the outcome of the game.
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: mcliu on October 02, 2015, 07:56:12 AM
Maybe it's also a time frame thing. You want the company to do well over the long-term for the sake of humanity, but in the short-term the company's shares can get overvalued and correct to fair value..  ???
Title: Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
Post by: rkbabang on October 02, 2015, 08:08:10 AM
Maybe it's also a time frame thing. You want the company to do well over the long-term for the sake of humanity, but in the short-term the company's shares can get overvalued and correct to fair value..  ???

OK I'll buy that I guess.   I realize that any individual investor shorting a $30B company puts about as much pressure on it as a fly landing on an aircraft carrier, but I wouldn't short a company unless I wanted it to die.   I tend to be