Author Topic: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.  (Read 33735 times)

Seth Lowry

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #190 on: April 24, 2019, 12:45:41 PM »
I would contend that any company that will generate more FCFE per share than its current stock price over the next 3 years - all on contracts with investment grade counterparties - has an investor relations and investor communication problem rather than a catalyst problem.  But I hear your point that valuation is a weaker catalyst.  Some potential catalysts in no particular order:

1) Improved KPIs, communication and/or investor day
2) Improvement in debt rating
3) Listing on Oslo exchange
4) Conversion to partnership structure to become more broadly ownable
5) Morgan Stanley writing something less incompetent
6) Rechartering of Floatel ~$20M in EBITDA
7) Uptick in Towage fleet from idle to cash flow positive (lots of large FPSOs greenlighted recently)
8) Deployment/sale of Hi-Load shuttle tanker
9) recharter of Rio de Ostras (idle)
10) Sale of Pirenema Field by PBR and longer-term/more economic charter for Pirenema Spirit FPSO
11) incharters on regular tankers rolling off this month ~$10M savings
12) Contract extensions / improvements on Voyageur Spirit (took low rate at bottom of cycle)
13) Alpha securing funding for VARG FPSO
14) Interest savings (ECA facility, FCF paying down higher cost debt/hybrid)
15) Petrojarl contract reversion in a few months +$50M
16) Maybe down the line a sale of Shuttle Tankers fleet if none of the above works


heth247

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #191 on: April 24, 2019, 04:44:29 PM »
Seth, do we know that Ostras is for sure off contract now? I know its contract was supposed to end in March, but according to this link, it is still active - https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:370370/mmsi:309726000/imo:7920508/vessel:PETROJARL_CIDADE_DE_RIO_DAS_OS

Also, you mentioned in before that when they add the new debt facility, they are also swapping out an expensive acquisition facility. Can you elaborate which expensive acquisition facility they are swapping out?  thanks.

5xEBITDA

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Re: TOO - Teekay Offshore Partners L.P.
« Reply #192 on: April 24, 2019, 05:33:02 PM »
I would contend that any company that will generate more FCFE per share than its current stock price over the next 3 years - all on contracts with investment grade counterparties - has an investor relations and investor communication problem rather than a catalyst problem.  But I hear your point that valuation is a weaker catalyst.  Some potential catalysts in no particular order:

2) Improvement in debt rating

4) Conversion to partnership structure to become more broadly ownable


I like these two the best, any idea on dates - have they publicly commented on converting the corporate structure? The ratings agencies will have criteria for upgrades, I can check the boxes there.

Given the levered equity profile of the common, "buy and hold" makes me nervous on this one and I'd rather put it into my event-driven bucket if I can.