Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 563059 times)

frommi

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2700 on: February 02, 2019, 01:49:32 AM »
I don't know. I'm just saying the chart is showing a huge drop because it doesn't take into account what's going on outside the US. If you had the same chart for "worldwide", it would probably look pretty normal.

I also think the general theory is that over time they keep making lower-priced versions of the M3 and sell it to different segments of the market, and then open up a new segment with the Y (smaller electric crossover), and eventually with an electric pickup truck, etc.

It'll be hard, and they're usually late on their promises, but I don't think the worldwide market for EVs has suddenly tapped out in a single month.

I don`t think that matters much, because to develop new products or factories they need cash, a lot of cash. Where is that coming from? The debt markets are closed for them. The cash balance in the financial statements looks high, but that is only because they pay suppliers at the start of the quarter.  If you look at the interest payments they got on the cash, average cash balance for Q4-2018 was around 1 billion, that`s barely enough to repay the march debt. And payables on the end of last quarter were ~5.5 billion, with just 1 billion in outstanding receivables. If revenue goes down this is not sustainable, because they have to pay suppliers more than they get from customers each month. Negative working capital only works when revenue is going up.
So they have to raise capital, increase revenue by a lot or they are bankrupt sometime in 2019. Either way the stock price will go down.

I suspect that Deepak has left because he realized that Elon is again gambling on the future of the company (and doesn`t want to raise equity) but this time the odds are clearly against him. Elon is deep on margin on Tesla stock and his margin call is getting closer every month, because hes probably pledging more stock every month, since he can`t afford to pay the interest. None of his enterprises pay him in cash. You can`t expect him to make unbiased and reasonable decisions. I really like the cars they make, but the company is a mess.

And to come back to world wide EV sales, of course that market is growing, but the competition is heating up. The Porsche Taycan and the Jaguar iPace are already grabbing lots of market share from S and X sales worldwide and the model 3 is competing with the LEAF and the KIA e-Niro, which both are a lot cheaper, but offer a similar experience. I watched youtube videos on the "Autopilot" feature from the KIA e-Niro and it looks similar to that of a model 3. The only current advantage TSLA still has is the charger network, but since most people charge at home and charger stations are shooting out of the ground like mushrooms, the advantage diminishes quickly. I think that TSLA has also destroyed its brand value for luxury cars with the model 3 quality, at least i would prefer a car from another company now that i know how bad the quality of their cars really is. (And wait 4-8 weeks for a repair?? no way!)

And they just ended their referral program, are they really getting more revenue without this cheap advertising? I think this was part of their success, lots of youtube guys post videos of the greatness of TSLA cars and than add their referral code at the end of the video.


gfp

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2701 on: February 02, 2019, 06:54:11 AM »
I don't follow Tesla very closely, but I would say that Elan not wanting to raise capital by selling new equity doesn't mean he won't raise capital by selling new equity or preferred equity.  Adding guys like Larry Ellison to the board will help him make sure there is a billion here, a billion there, when the company is on the line.  It looks at first glance that the market cap of Tesla is still above $50 Billion.  He should sell some equity or a new convertible preferred or whatever they cook up.  I don't think private deals with billionaire friends are cut off.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2702 on: February 02, 2019, 03:46:30 PM »
I don't know. I'm just saying the chart is showing a huge drop because it doesn't take into account what's going on outside the US. If you had the same chart for "worldwide", it would probably look pretty normal.

I also think the general theory is that over time they keep making lower-priced versions of the M3 and sell it to different segments of the market, and then open up a new segment with the Y (smaller electric crossover), and eventually with an electric pickup truck, etc.

It'll be hard, and they're usually late on their promises, but I don't think the worldwide market for EVs has suddenly tapped out in a single month.

I don`t think that matters much, because to develop new products or factories they need cash, a lot of cash. Where is that coming from? The debt markets are closed for them. The cash balance in the financial statements looks high, but that is only because they pay suppliers at the start of the quarter.  If you look at the interest payments they got on the cash, average cash balance for Q4-2018 was around 1 billion, that`s barely enough to repay the march debt. And payables on the end of last quarter were ~5.5 billion, with just 1 billion in outstanding receivables. If revenue goes down this is not sustainable, because they have to pay suppliers more than they get from customers each month. Negative working capital only works when revenue is going up.
So they have to raise capital, increase revenue by a lot or they are bankrupt sometime in 2019. Either way the stock price will go down.

I suspect that Deepak has left because he realized that Elon is again gambling on the future of the company (and doesn`t want to raise equity) but this time the odds are clearly against him. Elon is deep on margin on Tesla stock and his margin call is getting closer every month, because hes probably pledging more stock every month, since he can`t afford to pay the interest. None of his enterprises pay him in cash. You can`t expect him to make unbiased and reasonable decisions. I really like the cars they make, but the company is a mess.

And to come back to world wide EV sales, of course that market is growing, but the competition is heating up. The Porsche Taycan and the Jaguar iPace are already grabbing lots of market share from S and X sales worldwide and the model 3 is competing with the LEAF and the KIA e-Niro, which both are a lot cheaper, but offer a similar experience. I watched youtube videos on the "Autopilot" feature from the KIA e-Niro and it looks similar to that of a model 3. The only current advantage TSLA still has is the charger network, but since most people charge at home and charger stations are shooting out of the ground like mushrooms, the advantage diminishes quickly. I think that TSLA has also destroyed its brand value for luxury cars with the model 3 quality, at least i would prefer a car from another company now that i know how bad the quality of their cars really is. (And wait 4-8 weeks for a repair?? no way!)

And they just ended their referral program, are they really getting more revenue without this cheap advertising? I think this was part of their success, lots of youtube guys post videos of the greatness of TSLA cars and than add their referral code at the end of the video.

That all might be right. Or maybe not. People have been saying this is about to go bankrupt since IPO, so I don't know if they can kick the can down the road a while longer, or actually make structural improvements at some point and fix the biggest issues... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Very little return-on-brain-damage in this name so far. But you never know.
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walt373

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2703 on: February 02, 2019, 09:25:01 PM »
The company badly needs to upgrade the service network and they have big plans for expansion. Yet they have cut capex to the bone and done two layoffs in just the past few months. Employee morale is low as they are living under constant fear of being fired. A raise solves all their problems and would result in minimal dilution. Something is really off here.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2704 on: February 04, 2019, 02:32:49 AM »
More delays for the solar roof:

https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/31/david-robinson-for-tesla-more-delays-for-solar-roof/

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If the South Park Avenue factory is ever going to reach its goal of employing 1,460 people by April 2020, the electric vehicle maker is going to have to sell lots of solar roofs.

That's not happening now, and Tesla officials indicated this week that it likely won't happen until sometime later this year, after predicting just three months ago that it would ramp up production in Buffalo by June.

Tesla already is facing a huge uphill climb to meet its employment goal – or face a $41.2 million penalty from the state. The plant employed about 800 people before Tesla's 7 percent company-wide job cut last month. But it needs to increase employment there by more than 80 percent in the next 14 months to avoid triggering the penalty – assuming state officials try to impose it.

Another article regarding the Buffalo plant:
https://www.wivb.com/news/investigates/former-tesla-workers-paint-grim-picture-of-buffalo-plant/1754568826

Quote
In November, Tesla gave the media its first glimpse inside the Buffalo factory.

Employees described it as a “dog and pony” show that was planned by Tesla for over a month. They said Tesla had walls built to hide unused equipment and blocked off large areas.

The tour was an extremely controlled event, with the company picking employees to speak with reporters and not letting cameras inside. Footage recorded by Tesla was provided to television outlets like News 4.

“It was all fabricated for show,” Witherell said.

“There was no actual production that day so some of the teams in their specific area were instructed to make sure they looked busy and they actually were working on the same module over and over again.”

Around the time of the tour, Tesla and state officials announced that 800 people work at the plant; 400 by Tesla and 400 by Panasonic, which manufactures solar cells there.

Some workers disputed that Tesla employs 400 people.

“If you took all of our shifts, there are about 50 people, maybe 60 people at best per shift, there are four shifts,” Scott said.

“You do the math. Are you going to tell me there are 200 people up in the front office?”

News 4 Investigates requested through the Freedom of Information law the job numbers at Tesla’s Buffalo plant

After three months passed without any documents, News 4 appealed to the state. Only then did the state provide two sheets of paper that showed employment numbers by quarter for both Tesla and Panasonic, including workers employed elsewhere in the state by Tesla. The documents did not state how the state insures the job data is accurate.

But the data only showed job numbers for each quarter through the end of 2017, when Tesla employed 188 workers and Panasonic employed 279 workers at the facility.

When News 4 asked why the job numbers did not reflect what Tesla and the state had been reporting in late 2018, a state official said they did not have the data.

“Tesla is required to provide employee numbers annually (broken down by quarter).  The 2018 numbers will not be reported until early 2019,” said Patricia Bucklin, vice president of Administration for Fuller Management Corporation, by email.

Tesla refused to provide News 4 with the 2018 job data – information that is important because Tesla can face financial penalties for failing to meet job goals.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2019, 01:54:23 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

Leverage Capabilities

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2705 on: February 04, 2019, 07:51:26 AM »

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2706 on: February 04, 2019, 08:04:50 AM »
Someone from the bear camp that knows more about the company:
https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1092447227040063488

Quote
this deal makes zero sense as a fold in acq.  i know $MXWL well.  it was a one time fraudy promote that has been in cash incineration purgatory with flat revs, declining margins, and serial cap raises for 5 years.  the CEO, fink, is a caretaker check casher.  there's no real tech

Quote
even if the tech was meaningful, it wud take YEARS to integrate commercial designs.  it's mostly power storage tech for spec apps.  they have no auto revs nor any obvs crossover with tesla storage.

they do have a deal w geely for hybrids.  hard to see that standing up post deal.

Quote
they do have one short term asset that could be of use, not as a product, but as a pump.  that asset is this "dry battery electrode" tech.  this is the classic MXWL pump.  they have been claiming to have a "breakthru" tech of one sort or another for 15 years.  has not happened.

Another analysis:
https://www.pivotalcapitalresearch.com/home/tesla-acquires-maxwell-technologies-buyout-bailout-or

Quote
Tesla paid a huge premium for a struggling company on the verge of bankruptcy. The technology they acquired in the deal is going to require significant capex to develop and produce and it just so happens that 20% of the company was owned by the Chinese Government. They announced this deal the Monday after CFO Deepak Ahuja announced his departure in the final 4 minutes of the Q4 2018 earnings call, which raises more questions that I won't get to today. Was this deal part of a kickback to the Chinese Government in the form of a buyout? Possibly, as a more direct bribe would require cash that Tesla desperately needs in order to pay back the $920 million convertible debt issue that matures on March 1st (just over 3 weeks from now). Ultimately, I cannot say whether this was just a bad M&A deal or something more sinister. I do, however, find it extremely "sus" as our friend Elon would say.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2019, 01:50:39 AM by A Dhandho Investor »

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2707 on: February 05, 2019, 11:43:44 AM »
Consumer Reports satisfaction survey:

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/10-most-satisfying-cars-owner-satisfaction/

Quote
  • Tesla Model 3
  • Porsche 911
  • Genesis G90
  • Chevrolet Corvette
  • Tesla Model S
  • Toyota Avalon
  • Kia Stinger
  • Chevrolet Bolt
  • Toyota Prius
  • Dodge Challenger
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rb

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2708 on: February 05, 2019, 12:30:51 PM »
Not sure that list is accurate. They have a Dodge on there.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #2709 on: February 05, 2019, 12:44:43 PM »
Not sure that list is accurate. They have a Dodge on there.

Brand inertia is a real thing.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | The importance of saying 'oops'