Author Topic: AIM.TO - Aimia  (Read 123389 times)

wabuffo

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #480 on: August 05, 2019, 05:30:53 PM »
I didn't realize Mittleman Bros investment record was this poor.
http://www.mittlemanbrothers.com/performance/

A 5-year CAGR of minus 6.7% per year (vs S&P 500 TR CAGR of +10.7% annually). They've been underperforming by 17%+ per year!.   No wonder he's seeing redemptions after his investors got their Q2 statements in July.

The 2m share sale was on July 31st - that was the beginning of the market reaction to the escalation of the trade war.  We'll see what happens with their AIM share holdings this week with the sudden tailspin in the broad indices.  The AIMIA BOD may only need to wait him out and he may no longer be a pain in their side. 

If I were Rabe and BOD, I'd be publicizing MIM's poor performance and asking why AIM shareholders should entrust the Company's strategy to someone with such a poor investment record.  Ouch!

wabuffo
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 05:36:09 PM by wabuffo »


movys

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #481 on: August 06, 2019, 11:24:05 PM »
How intellectually honest of you to mention only the 5-year CAGR when it suits your narrative and ignore the 10-year CAGR that tells the opposite different story or the 17-year (since inception) number that does the same.

Do the math on how much more money you end up with when you outperform by several hundred basis points over such a long period of time.  Investors who have stuck with MIM have done very well.


Cigarbutt

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #482 on: August 07, 2019, 05:16:15 AM »
The Mittleman group's presence is interesting because they represent a potential catalyst for value realization.
What specific individuals think about their investment record and potential for a 'rebound' is not that relevant in the context of the redemption pressure that the Mittleman team may get for their funds and the effect this may have on Aimia's share price, given such a high concentration in one name. A cynic may say that this would be value accretive for the buyback but waiting for windows of opportunity has a price also.

You know a fund manager is going through 'challenging' results when the commentary starts with: "“Now, just remember that this thing isn’t as black as it appears.” — George Bailey, It’s a Wonderful Life

It's a wonderful life but Revlon is reporting tomorrow.
https://www.brookvine.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019Q2_Mittleman-Global-Value-Equity-Fund_Qtrly-Report_Class-P.pdf

wabuffo

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #483 on: August 07, 2019, 05:36:38 AM »
How intellectually honest of you to mention only the 5-year CAGR when it suits your narrative and ignore the 10-year CAGR that tells the opposite different story or the 17-year (since inception) number that does the same.

I didn't ignore their long-term record, but I don't think its particularly impressive - for two reasons:

1) When I look at the early year results of an investment manager's record, I always assume the AUM was a whole lot smaller - so on a time-weighted, capital-weighted average return basis, I'm guessing most of their limited partners have not outperformed the indices.
2) Even if ignore point 1, I ran their numbers from 2003 through a six-sigma calculation correlated with the side-by-side S&P returns and looked up the result in my handy-dandy z-table.  Their portfolio returns statistically beat 54% of random portfolios based on the S&P.  That's only a bit better than a coin toss.  Statistically their returns are mostly leveraged beta and very little alpha over the entirety of their record.

But my point wasn't to take shots at them.   My main point is that their position may be weaker than appreciated by AIM investors.  Unless a lot of their AUM is their own money, their recent poor record plus current swoon in equities could force their hand by their own investors.

But I understand your concern about my post.

wabuffo
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 05:38:38 AM by wabuffo »

Pref User

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #484 on: August 07, 2019, 06:05:21 PM »
How intellectually honest of you to mention only the 5-year CAGR when it suits your narrative and ignore the 10-year CAGR that tells the opposite different story or the 17-year (since inception) number that does the same.

I didn't ignore their long-term record, but I don't think its particularly impressive - for two reasons:

1) When I look at the early year results of an investment manager's record, I always assume the AUM was a whole lot smaller - so on a time-weighted, capital-weighted average return basis, I'm guessing most of their limited partners have not outperformed the indices.
2) Even if ignore point 1, I ran their numbers from 2003 through a six-sigma calculation correlated with the side-by-side S&P returns and looked up the result in my handy-dandy z-table.  Their portfolio returns statistically beat 54% of random portfolios based on the S&P.  That's only a bit better than a coin toss.  Statistically their returns are mostly leveraged beta and very little alpha over the entirety of their record.

But my point wasn't to take shots at them.   My main point is that their position may be weaker than appreciated by AIM investors.  Unless a lot of their AUM is their own money, their recent poor record plus current swoon in equities could force their hand by their own investors.

But I understand your concern about my post.

wabuffo

BURN!!!!

kab60

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #485 on: August 08, 2019, 04:42:47 AM »

wabuffo

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #486 on: August 08, 2019, 06:39:31 AM »
CDLX (Cardlytics) out with a good earnings report that the market seems to like - up ~15% in early trading this morning.  So that's good news for AIMIA.

wabuffo

wabuffo

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #487 on: August 08, 2019, 01:21:18 PM »
I (again) became an AIM.TO shareholder bagholder after today's price swoon.   Of course, that means this thing is heading a lot lower and I will probably regret this little speculation.   8)

wabuffo
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 07:09:11 PM by wabuffo »

Cigarbutt

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #488 on: August 14, 2019, 05:49:33 AM »
Q2 results out.

The message is that management is engaged (for better or for worse) in the transformation of their operating platform. They expect negative cash drag to go down but it’s only a promise at this point and “accretive” acquisitions will decrease the level of cash and investments held (and margin of safety).

In Q2 and since then, the market value of Cardlytics has gone up (I would suspect they’re also doing well with their long-term bonds) and I do not take these numbers in today’s valuation although monetization may be coming soon and hopefully they can achieve an exit at an attractive price point.

Another key part of the puzzle is PLM. PLM is going through a relative soft patch but the underlying business appears to be strong and growing. Adjusted EBITDA increased to 21.3M USD last quarter. One has to reasonably subtract to intrinsic value based on the setup but I continue to think that there is a considerable gap between what is reported (53.2M) and what the business is really worth.

Margin of safety wise, looking at total equity (579M) at end of Q2, subtracting 20M for the completion of the NCIB, subtracting 322M for the prefs and ‘adjusting’ for unrecognized value for PLM and BigLife, I get a ‘floor’ at about 5$ per share (shares outstanding now at about 108.5M). Going forward, there will be a continuous negative cash flow drag from operations and dividends to preferreds (which will continue to cause a 40% tax accrual to grow because of part VI.1 and unprofitable operations for the foreseeable future) but this drag will be mitigated partly by interest income and distributions from PLM.

All in all, I was hoping for more immediate value realization but am still comfortable holding on for now.

movys

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #489 on: August 14, 2019, 06:21:20 AM »
I don’t think anyone expected any immediate value realization with Q2’s report.  Also not a surprise that mgmt is engaged in the transformation of their operating platform.

Curious how you are  “adjusting” your value for PLM in your all-in “floor” of $5/share?  Was nice to hear Rabe confirm that There’s a robust exclusivity clause in their agreement with Aeromexico.

Also doesn’t sound like they are close to announcing any kind of M&A, which is good as it allows some time for the boxing match with Mittleman to play out before mgmt can destroy more value.

Finally, is there a chance mgmt actually  finds a real bargain and creates a ton of value by putting the NOLs to work?