Author Topic: UBER - Uber Technologies  (Read 10664 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2019, 10:17:24 AM »
I donít think the claim they EV will have lower repair costs than ICE cars holds true. Engines on I E cars nowadays are very reliable and will last a long time. Maintenance is tires, brakes and one has way more often issue with the electronics than the mechanics.

Self driving cars will be another can of worms. All these electronics, sensors , computers, software. my guess is they car mechanics will be become electronic technicians and will have a very bright future.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.


alpha

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2019, 11:20:14 AM »
I donít think the claim they EV will have lower repair costs than ICE cars holds true. Engines on I E cars nowadays are very reliable and will last a long time. Maintenance is tires, brakes and one has way more often issue with the electronics than the mechanics.

Self driving cars will be another can of worms. All these electronics, sensors , computers, software. my guess is they car mechanics will be become electronic technicians and will have a very bright future.

The regenerative braking in EV's drastically reduces the wear on the braking system.

SharperDingaan

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2019, 12:49:57 PM »
Uber also includes Uber Eats. See the below CBC marketplace video ...
ttps://www.cbc.ca/news/marketplace/battle-of-the-food-apps-testing-the-delivery-of-uber-eats-foodora-and-skipthedishes-1.4908223

The customer pays MORE per meal PLUS delivery charge. Total cost roughly 50% more than just going to the restaurant.
Restaurants LOSE money, only use it to stay competitive, and mark up to try & minimize the loss.
Restaurant/Uber reputational exposure to poor courier treatment/road fatalities.
Restaurant pays 30% fee to deliver via Uber Eats.

What do you think happens when the restaurants refuse to play anymore?
Collectively, progressively take a little longer to deliver your order, via a different service; & let eaters 'discover' that its quicker/cheaper to just go to the restaurant. Uber Eats goes obsolete overnight? Uber stock goes into free-fall?

SD



 

Castanza

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2019, 04:15:58 PM »
I donít think the claim they EV will have lower repair costs than ICE cars holds true. Engines on I E cars nowadays are very reliable and will last a long time. Maintenance is tires, brakes and one has way more often issue with the electronics than the mechanics.

Self driving cars will be another can of worms. All these electronics, sensors , computers, software. my guess is they car mechanics will be become electronic technicians and will have a very bright future.

The regenerative braking in EV's drastically reduces the wear on the braking system.

So does engine braking in gasoline and diesel engines. Most trucks and SUV's have this feature nowadays. I'm not saying EV's won't be reliable, but you know damn well they will be way more expensive to repair until the supply and demand of qualified techs can catch up. I mean have you ever had a sensor or a computer chip go out in regular cars today? Crazy expensive, and everything is modular nowadays. SO you generally have to get a whole "unit" replaced instead of a specific part.

ajc

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2019, 03:33:41 AM »

Amazon network effects and Uber driver pay

Ha. Not sure about that Amazon take. Their original expansion into Europe was done via acquisition, they defeated Quidsi via a vicious price war and buyout plus did the same to Zappo's. If you have to grow into new territories and verticals that way, by definition you don't really have serious network effects. Maybe Amazon today does, but in the Dotcom era it was eBay that had them and Bezos was simply competing on cost and operational efficiency as well as convenience.

I don't see the current net pay issue as that big of a deal. Perhaps I'm mistaken. The Money Mustache link was just to make the unpaid versus paid mile point as far as it relates to providing a barrier to entry in Uber's favor. For more accurate numbers than his 4 total rides, I'd go with Ridester where 1000's of Uber drivers submitted their pay details for FY2018 and the number came out to roughly between $15 and $20 before expenses were deducted (https://www.ridester.com/2018-survey/).

I'd highlight that unlike the IRS which pegs total driving costs at 55 cents/mile for 2018, the AAA has them at 37 cents/mile for small sedans, so there's reasonable debate about what expenses really are. Add the fact that as driver/rider numbers increase in any city, the number of unpaid miles shrinks because of greater density, so drivers will get paid more on a total miles driven basis simply as a result of Uber's increasing popularity. Given that minimum wage is still $7.25 in most states and Uber effective pay is still comfortably above that, I'm unconcerned as of now about the overall math not working out.

My guess is more of the unhappiness is because it was a nice paying gig before and has become closer to a minimum wage one over the years. As I noted, between growing driver/rider density in cities meaning higher pay per total miles driven and the way in which EVs will make driver costs fall, there are vital trends starting to work in favor of increasing driver pay over the coming decade. Given how the Uber CEO has signalled substantially cutting losses going forward, I think they've more than enough cash to see them until 2025 by which time the density and EV trends will have taken hold.


Battery life and maintenance costs

The Twizy already has a replaceable battery. If batteries account for 30% of an EV's cost by 2025 and 20% by 2030 (according to Statista), then that's only a couple thousand bucks for a new one. It still means the numbers work, just that pay is somewhat closer to minimum wage instead of comfortably above it based on the numbers from my previous posts. 50 000 miles per year is what full-time drivers average, so battery life isn't an issue. Also, my arguments are factoring in the current known trajectory for battery improvements. With the amount of money being thrown at battery research at an all-time high, a noteworthy breakthrough in the next decade means even better economics.

Maintenance costs for EVs, even ones like Telsa which have had more reliability problems than most, have already been shown to be super low (https://bgr.com/2017/09/03/tesla-model-s-maintenance-costs-300k-miles-whoa/). If you go ahead and just take scheduled costs out of those numbers in the link, they're even less expensive. Pitifully so. It's not hard to imagine how much better that'd be once you start getting EVs manufactured by Japanese, Korean, or European manufacturers with far higher build quality reputations.

As far as sensor suites, advanced electronics, etc, go, I don't think that'll be an issue for the EVs I'm describing. Bottom of the price range products, like long-lasting Nokia 1300 phones, are built for durability and extended use. They are not fitted with all the latest innovations and they break less often. As ride-sharing, food/package delivery, and so on, become an ever bigger part of daily life, my estimation is a few auto manufacturers will develop EVs for this function and in this price range. They won't be fancy, but they'll be small, affordable, effective, and long-lasting. The Twizy is already in this ballpark and if you look around Asia you see multiple petrol-powered vehicles already fitting this description.
There's already a switchable battery $10 000 EV being released next year by a US company, that gives people an idea of where we're headed in this space (https://www.micromobility.com/nano/).


Uber Eats

The idea that people are going back to sit-in meals at restaurants in large numbers versus ordering in via take out, is not supported by the data. I saw a chart (from Quartz I think) a few years back when take out orders surpassed eat in orders for the first time and we're never going back. Here's restaurants versus grocery stores (https://twitter.com/mitchnolen/status/1130539088962973696) and you can see since Grubhub, Uber Eats, and Doordash, really became popular, so the balance shifted. Fact is in most major developed world cities today, not knowing how to cook isn't a problem. As little as 50 years ago, that thought was totally impossible. The more cloud kitchens bring down the cost of take out food and increase selection, and the more EVs bring down delivery costs, so food-on-demand trends will grow.

Furthermore, restaurants that are well-run from a cost standpoint can benefit a lot from Uber Eats and other services (see the answers from Fintwit's Ray Hanson here, who is involved in restaurant ownership - https://twitter.com/QuisitiveInvest/status/1129820477344690176)
Also, in many small cities (I lived in Belfast for a few years) Uber Eats delivery drivers use bicycles instead of cars. That obviously makes their running costs far lower and largely deals with the effective hourly rate issue.
Finally, we know that Uber Eats use increases the likelihood that customers will take a ride in an Uber (https://twitter.com/BluegrassCap/status/1128322898857476096), so it makes sense for now that Uber is building out the business fast.



SharperDingaan

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #25 on: May 25, 2019, 04:36:45 AM »
Re Uber Eats.
It's not popularity (of course delivery is popular); it's cost versus just walking down the street, and can the diner pay for it.
Using an Uber to get to the restaurant also earns a lot less than the 30% of the total food bill.
Take out students, & those with kids/mortgage, & who's left? with ability to pay?

I put it to you that this is really just a 'cool' tech solution, aimed at other techs, looking for a market.
And that it can't compete against existing delivery options; pizza delivery, grocery delivery, food trucks down the street.

Not a problem, so long as Uber applies the industry's agile project management approach.
Try it, and kill it, as soon as it's no longer fit for purpose.

SD


DTEJD1997

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2019, 09:18:27 AM »
hey all:

Here in my area, Uber Eats and DoorDash are making big marketing efforts.

The crazy thing is this...they are HEAVILY promoting Wendy's, Taco Bell and other low cost eateries. 

Who the $#%@% is going to order 3 Tacos and a nachos from Taco Bell to be delivered?  Somebody too stoned/drunk to walk/drive?  Who would want Taco Bell delivered?  NOT ME!  On the rare circumstance when I wish to eat Taco Bell, I want it NOW.  I will eat in my car or the dining room of the restaurant.  A hard shelled taco from Taco Bell has a half-life of a few minutes.  After that, the grease has soaked the shell and it goes from hard shelled to soft shell and is thus ruined.

Wendy's and other burger joints are not quite as bad...you can bring those back home or to the office, but your still working with minutes before the fries get too cold.

Where is the $$$$ though?  We are talking about $5 to $10 meals here.

I also thought that a cloud kitchen is a really cool idea.  It really depends on the area that you are in.  I know a restaurant owner and was discussing this with him.  He said that for most of his location, rent is not really an issue.  His best location pays it's rent bill with just over 1 day of sales.  How much would he save by moving to a lower priced cloud kitchen? 

I suppose you might make it work with 5+ different concepts going out of one kitchen....but I think the cloud kitchen might really only work in NYC, SF, or other very high rent areas?  Here in the Detroit area, real estate is cheap, and we've got PLENTY of it.

Deepdive

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2019, 11:37:43 AM »
You think you're under estimating the craving for Taco Bell when you're stoned

SharperDingaan

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2019, 02:10:42 PM »
You think you're under estimating the craving for Taco Bell when you're stoned

The Toronto experience is that it's a lot smarter to just hire a delivery driver (same as a Domino's), and call it 'Stoner Eats'!
Grocery stores will even pack your groceries; and deliver to your condo, or door, by a pre-set time (Friday Night); at the same price as in the store, plus $5-$10 for delivery.

Gives an indication as to just how out of touch some of the Uber business actually is.
For which you paid a multiple of how much?

SD

ajc

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Re: UBER - Uber Technologies
« Reply #29 on: May 26, 2019, 04:13:36 AM »


Re Uber Eats.
It's not popularity (of course delivery is popular); it's cost versus just walking down the street, and can the diner pay for it.
Using an Uber to get to the restaurant also earns a lot less than the 30% of the total food bill.
Take out students, & those with kids/mortgage, & who's left? with ability to pay?

I put it to you that this is really just a 'cool' tech solution, aimed at other techs, looking for a market.
And that it can't compete against existing delivery options; pizza delivery, grocery delivery, food trucks down the street.

Not a problem, so long as Uber applies the industry's agile project management approach.
Try it, and kill it, as soon as it's no longer fit for purpose.

SD



Time will tell, I'm clearly on the other side of that bet. Faasos has already made the cloud kitchen business model work and gained share in India for over a decade (see this Financial Times article on the topic - https://www.ft.com/content/5c104e5e-7aea-11e9-8b5c-33d0560f039c).
The developed world tends to have higher delivery costs. In rich cities though, working out of a warehouse/factory district can bring rent down a whole lot. Second, mechanizing your line can end up being cheaper than paying staff wages year after year after year. Also, you produce far more food and do it quicker. Serving 10 000 meals per night instead of 500 means you can bring down the price of the meal and make it up on volume.
Plus, working with so much food means you're able to secure discounts with your suppliers because of how much you buy. Platforms like Uber Eats also give far more insight into demand on every level, so intelligent use of that can reduce spoilage and increase savings.

When you factor in the idea that most Americans in important, growing cities probably don't like being limited to the 10 or 20 restaurants within a five minute walk and instead prefer to have access to 1000's of them from anywhere in the urban environment, then there's still a very big role for Uber Eats, Doordash, etc, to play in consumer's lives.
Also, with the introduction of electric bicycles it means couriers can travel faster and deliver more at even lower cost so delivery fees can effectively fall.
Then there are innovations like what Starship Technologies is working on where delivery robots on wheels keep your meal at the perfect temperature and you don't need to pay a human courier a wage (https://venturebeat.com/2019/03/25/starship-technologies-rolls-out-delivery-robots-to-northern-arizona-universitys-flagstaff-campus/). Drone delivery may play some kind of small role too, eventually.

Overall with the various economies of scale and cost savings outlined above I don't think it's unimaginable that, in a few years as cloud kitchen technology and efficiency management improve, a situation develops where even with delivery you're only paying an extra 3 or 4 bucks for your meal.
In return for that small fee you get selection from across the whole city and can carry on sitting in your beanbag chair eating Cheetos while it's brought to you.
My guess is most urbanites will see that as a reasonable trade-off, if not all the time, then at least for a good part of it.
For the curious, this slightly longer, more in-depth read on cloud kitchen's from 2017 was an interesting one - https://www.ft.com/content/d23c44fe-4b0b-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b.