Author Topic: V - Visa  (Read 39719 times)

SlowAppreciation

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 441
    • Slow Appreciation
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #90 on: February 24, 2019, 08:30:36 AM »
Does anyone know where I can find Visa's annual cross-border volumes (total $ amnt)? They disclose the growth each quarter and year, but I haven't been able to find the actual dollar amount. Or is this not shared and can only backed into from the estimated yield?


Own The Rails

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 84
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #91 on: February 25, 2019, 02:49:00 PM »
Does anyone know where I can find Visa's annual cross-border volumes (total $ amnt)? They disclose the growth each quarter and year, but I haven't been able to find the actual dollar amount. Or is this not shared and can only backed into from the estimated yield?

Yep, not shared! It's huge though no doubt, perhaps close to 40% of net revenues

SlowAppreciation

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 441
    • Slow Appreciation
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #92 on: February 25, 2019, 08:29:19 PM »
Does anyone know where I can find Visa's annual cross-border volumes (total $ amnt)? They disclose the growth each quarter and year, but I haven't been able to find the actual dollar amount. Or is this not shared and can only backed into from the estimated yield?

Yep, not shared! It's huge though no doubt, perhaps close to 40% of net revenues

Bah thatís what I thought. Canít it be backed into based on estimated yield though (around 1%?)

AdjustedEarnings

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 54
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #93 on: March 14, 2019, 07:36:47 AM »
Where can I find reliable and up-to-date information on European interchange regulation? What does this regulation portend for regulation elsewhere, outside Europe? Could other countries go this far?

AdjustedEarnings

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 54
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #94 on: March 14, 2019, 11:31:31 AM »
Not good for Visa Direct:

https://www.cnet.com/news/paypal-now-lets-you-instantly-transfer-money-to-bank-accounts/

The fact that PayPal has access to almost-RT ACH through JPM probably means Venmo will soon have this functionality too (currently I believe you need to do push payments using debit). Thankfully the fee is on par with network's push payments. Though, here, the chance of devolving into a price war are higher as their end customers (Venmo, Zelle, etc.) are not profitable and are still figuring out their monetization models. Let's hope commercial sense prevails.

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11070
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #95 on: April 16, 2019, 05:33:00 AM »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

fuzzhead1506

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 26
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #96 on: April 16, 2019, 04:01:00 PM »
Current big picture thoughts on Visa:

5 year revenue growth of 13%
share reduction to 2100
Exit EV/Rev TTM multiple of 15.5x
Debt of 70B, Cash of 10B
--> Mkt cap of 539B
share price of $257 at year 5
plus dividends of $8 gets a $265 total return... that gets you between 10% and 11% returns from this level

Anything I am missing?

SlowAppreciation

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 441
    • Slow Appreciation
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #97 on: April 16, 2019, 04:36:14 PM »
Current big picture thoughts on Visa:

5 year revenue growth of 13%
share reduction to 2100
Exit EV/Rev TTM multiple of 15.5x
Debt of 70B, Cash of 10B
--> Mkt cap of 539B
share price of $257 at year 5
plus dividends of $8 gets a $265 total return... that gets you between 10% and 11% returns from this level

Anything I am missing?

You can look at it like this too:

fuzzhead1506

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 26
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #98 on: April 16, 2019, 08:58:24 PM »


You can look at it like this too:

I suppose I lean bearish on my operating margins estimates.  I would think that if V gets that much margin expansion then we would see a rerate higher (not lower). Unless interest rates also went up rather drastically, that is. 

Do you have any thoughts on how that margin expansion might happen or were you just pulling numbers out of a hat, like me?  :P

SlowAppreciation

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 441
    • Slow Appreciation
Re: V - Visa
« Reply #99 on: April 17, 2019, 05:26:36 AM »


You can look at it like this too:

I suppose I lean bearish on my operating margins estimates.  I would think that if V gets that much margin expansion then we would see a rerate higher (not lower). Unless interest rates also went up rather drastically, that is. 

Do you have any thoughts on how that margin expansion might happen or were you just pulling numbers out of a hat, like me?  :P

Yeah it might be aggressive, though their business has tons of operating leverage so itís not impossible. The incremental cost of processing each transaction is almost $0, and it costs the same to process a $.01 transaction as it does a $1,000 transaction. So Visa doesnít need to grow expenses anywhere near the same rate as payment and transaction volume. As a result, operating margins should expand. Especially when they bring V Europe pricing to be more in line with the rest of the business.