Author Topic: VELT - Velti  (Read 11922 times)

xtreeq

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2013, 01:49:31 PM »
Appreciate the insight - I have some reading and digging to do on this one, though it seems to have bottomed out around the 1 dollar mark ...


17thstcapital

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2013, 02:15:33 PM »

locatevalue

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2013, 09:20:16 AM »
I took a full 3% position today , I like the upside pottential of this stock but i am breaking my value investing rule and doing a specultaion understanding either it can be 0 or 5 bagger in next 2 years. I like what i hear from managment and they are doing what i would do in their shoes. They are leader in their field and i see lot of pottential in mobile adspace but hard to predict who wins this game finally!(I hope some company comes and buys it for nice permium)

Carvel46

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2013, 10:47:05 AM »
17thstcapital: They have discussed trying to improve DSO. Maybe they are also fiddling with Accounts Payables to help the cash cycle.

locatevalue: How do you get comfortable with the rate of industry change? I have a hard time understanding the industry (fast growing, fragmented...). It does seem that a lot of their problems are self-made.

Philip Morris IV

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2013, 12:00:33 PM »
I dipped my toes in @ $1.10 the other week.  I'm tempted to add more today but this isn't my wheelhouse.  Latest short interest is 32% so Velti is squarely under attack.

The jury is still out but if you're familiar with Velti you'll notice some cracks in the media reports... i.e. high DSOs are discussed without mention that all new clients (like Toyota) are on 90 days or less; Q1 GAAP loss is mentioned without the $133M impairment charge (which was 77% of opex); layoffs are discussed without mention that they were acquisition-related.  There's no context or balance.

BTW, the 6K notes that the increase in authorized shares is for their compensation plans, not planned further issuances as I speculated before, although I'm not ruling out the possibility.

locatevalue

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2013, 12:11:46 PM »
17thstcapital: They have discussed trying to improve DSO. Maybe they are also fiddling with Accounts Payables to help the cash cycle.

locatevalue: How do you get comfortable with the rate of industry change? I have a hard time understanding the industry (fast growing, fragmented...). It does seem that a lot of their problems are self-made.


As a developer myself its not that easy to migrate from one platform to another platform so this might provide some recurring cash flows but you are correct its a very fast changing industry and its very to hard to judge them but looking at other players like MM this is at very low valuation and these guys have better customers like Toyota, Coke and others if they dont do any stupid acquitions and keep organic growth and survive next 2 quarters then it will turn around. if you look at this industry 3rd and 4th quarters are better , Hence i am thinking this will survive and i like what new COO is doing.
Finally this is  one speculation i am doing in my portfolio currently and i am capping it at 3% and wont add even touch if it goes to 25cents so my losses will be this possition itself and i have compiled 3 other 3% postions in past 3months ALSK, OIBR, TI.A so to that bunch i added this one. I am sure one will go to 0 and probably the chance of this be the one is more or this might be biggest winner time will tell.
I am always very concentrated investor around 90 in my top 3 ideas this is first time i am taking route of bucket approach with small positions as this market is different i am not finding any high conviction bets so spreading it evenly but will know the results of these approach after 2 or 3 years.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2013, 12:18:31 PM by locatevalue »

siddharth18

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2013, 12:35:35 PM »

locatevalue

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2013, 12:49:27 PM »
If reputation is a factor in their business, they are losing it very fast:

http://www.imgrind.com/app-developers-using-mobclix-mobile-ad-exchange-being-screwed-for-30-million/

http://www.imgrind.com/mobclix-not-paying-app-developers-allegedly/

These back log payments should get better as they recently sold eastern europe that has a cash cycle of more than 200days and concentrating more on US and Western europse with cash cycle less than 90 days and they currently stand at 65% of these 2 and planning to go upto 70-75% in next year. so lets see how they handle these issues but short sellers are definetly using these news to their advantage!

siddharth18

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2013, 09:36:57 PM »
If reputation is a factor in their business, they are losing it very fast:

http://www.imgrind.com/app-developers-using-mobclix-mobile-ad-exchange-being-screwed-for-30-million/

http://www.imgrind.com/mobclix-not-paying-app-developers-allegedly/

These back log payments should get better as they recently sold eastern europe that has a cash cycle of more than 200days and concentrating more on US and Western europse with cash cycle less than 90 days and they currently stand at 65% of these 2 and planning to go upto 70-75% in next year. so lets see how they handle these issues but short sellers are definetly using these news to their advantage!

Well I am no short seller (in fact I didn't even know about Velti until I read about Mobclix first). I actually follow the internet advertising industry quite a bit and I know that reputation matters a lot especially for small-mid sized ad networks. No publisher or developer would ever think about doing business with Mobclix if there were any payment issues or even rumors. It's a tight-knit community where news spreads pretty fast and there are no second chances. In this case it seems they are not only holding the payment, but actively preventing anyone from contacting them.

Regardless, I have no opinion on Velti as an investment as I understand Mobclix is only its subsidiary. As always Caveat Emptor!

alertmeipp

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Re: VELT - Velti
« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2013, 02:02:00 PM »
wow, down 65 percent, time for some homework.