Author Topic: VULC - Vulcan International  (Read 7621 times)

writser

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2019, 02:39:11 AM »
My uneducated guess would be that KEWL is buying mostly high quality stuff so I'd be inclined to be a bit more conservative for the Vulcan forestland. I.e. if you have some random shitty plots of land the $900/acre is probably on the high side (if I look around on the internet in that area) and I don't know what kind of land Vulcan owns. But $500 / acre is probably quite pessimistic and if you are lucky they can fetch double (or even triple) that.

In total I agree that somewhere around $20 - $30 for the whole real estate package seems about correct, so ~$25 / share.

That's enough precision for me. At this point we don't even know if they sold PNC and USB for ~$105m during the panic last December or whether they are still holding (current market value would be $125m). Nor are we 100% sure these stocks were in their portfolio to begin with :P .
« Last Edit: March 12, 2019, 02:49:45 AM by writser »
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.


Hielko

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2019, 04:50:18 AM »
Yeah, no point trying to be super precise when there are so many unknowns.

But one last remark w.r.t. the land values. KEWL bought 14,000 acres in 2017 for $12.8 million. With such a large plot you probably have some sort of averaging effect already. Some of these acres will be poor while some of these acres will be very good. Just like the 14K acres VULC owns. Of course, it is not impossible that these are way worse or better than what KEWL bought, but the bigger the plot, the more likely the quality will be sort of "average".

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2019, 08:18:54 AM »
It looks like Vulcan's Michigan land consists of two separate tracts. The larger parcel is in Ontonagon County. The smaller parcel is in neighboring Houghton County.

See map on page 9. VULC's land is in tan.

http://users.clas.ufl.edu/mbinford/pub/Forese_et_al_draft2007_Forest_ownership_UPMich_Draft_5307.pdf

writser

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #23 on: March 12, 2019, 09:15:29 AM »
Yeah. Not sure if it's super relevant but I posted a link to some plots of Ontonagon land for sale somewhere in this thread (link). Maybe some of these are from Vulcan? Seems highly unlikely, I'd assume they go for a block sale. Anyway, if you look at the largest properties they seem to be priced at ~$350 - $1200 / acre, with a median of ~$700 / acre.
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

writser

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2019, 01:05:01 PM »
Does anybody know when the 10K was released past years? I've been trying to contact mr. Gettler but no luck so far. Was hoping that he might be a bit less secretive now given that the company is liquidating anyway.
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

JJR

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #25 on: April 15, 2019, 03:37:59 PM »
Thanks writser for the head up on this thread.  On the BH board, some have privately asked me if I was Jan, I am not, but I did post on the SA Vulcan thread. 

The problem with Vulcan's estimated liquidation value is that we have guess upon guess.  Tom Gettler is giving out no info.  Nobody know if we will get financials for 2018 and if they will be liquidation financials. I will stick by my estimate of $140-$150/share and will be disappointed if it comes in under $140/share and pleasantly surprised if it comes in above $150/share in a reasonable time frame (as in one year happy, 3 years disappointed). 

Will liquidation expenses be on the low side or high side?  My guess is the high side for something that should take very little effort and expense since most of the value is in the stock portfolio.   We should receive one big check early in the process and smaller checks later, but apparently Gettler doesn't see it that way.

The Michigan timberland could sell for 800/acre or it could be more or less (they are not contiguous parcels, but one friend who knows something about timber said the timber is very good).   Same with Clarksville, is it $100K or $300K/acre?   One friend's estimate of $200K is as good a guess as any.   How much will the demolition of the very large Clarksvliie building cost, and a big unknown is the environmental report, but I am assuming good news on that front.   They are starting to demolish the building and the interest in those 31 acres is huge (google it and you can see how attractive this is and there will be a bidding war for it, with Austin Peay the likely victor.)

In the last 6 months I don't know if Vulcan sold a stock like PNC at the lows of $110 or the highs of $140 or if any of the stock holdings have been sold to date, and that moves value a lot, as the stock portfolio and especially PNC is where most of the value resides. Are they selling weekly or plan on waiting for certain price points?  I know they hired tax experts to minimize taxes, but I'm assuming not much will happen on that front.

There are no state corporate income tax for companies that are formed in Delaware but do not transact business there, and that's were the stock portfolio is located.  In addition to federal corporate taxes, state corporate taxes will likely be due in Ohio, Tennessee, and Michigan however on the assets residing and sold there.

So there are likely to be pluses and minuses by the time this liquidation is history.

One friend has a decent relationship with Gettler, while I am persona non grata - which is an understatement.  Gettler said he's getting lots of calls from shareholders.


Friends have peppered him with lots of questions, but received no specific answers on any. 


They were stonewalled, as TG said he can't give info to just one shareholder, to which they replied that's what PR's are for - keeping all shareholders informed in a timely manner!

So the general info from Gettler was:
(1) the liquidation is going very well (but would give no specifics on any asset sales).
(2)  Gettler is working night and day since the liquidation announcement and he is a one-man show.
(3) The liquidation will be completed within the 3-yr time frame.
(4) They are dealing with pension issues and they are down to 2 employees.
(5) Shareholders will be VERY happy with the final outcome (Gettler  emphasized "very happy" as he said it several times), but he would give no details as to why we would be so happy.

Best,
Jim






wabuffo

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #26 on: April 15, 2019, 03:50:13 PM »
especially PNC is where most of the value resides.

Hey Jim - good to see you posting!   Its not just PNC, I think USB is the second biggest holding and a significant part of the overall portfolio (though not as big as PNC).  IIRC, Vulcan's cost bases of PNC (~$4/share) and USB (~$1/share) are very, very low, so there would be sizeable capital gains taxes due.  Assuming the bank stocks have not been sold yet, at current prices, I reckon liquidation value is around $140-$150.  But who really knows.

wabuffo
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 03:55:54 PM by wabuffo »

writser

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #27 on: April 16, 2019, 01:34:24 AM »
Thanks for your feedback.

We should receive one big check early in the process and smaller checks later, but apparently Gettler doesn't see it that way.

Yeah, that's one of the key issues and so far I've been disappointed with that. Yes, there are important tax issues etc. etc. but liquidating the stock portfolio and distributing proceeds should be a question of weeks rather than years. Given that they announced the liquidation in October 2018 they could (should?) have distributed $75 - $100 to shareholders already while retaining a comfortable cash cushion. I hope they don't decide to mail us a $145 cheque in October 2021.
When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.

Hielko

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #28 on: April 16, 2019, 05:50:01 AM »
Hi Jim,

Thanks for your info. I'm also involved in this one, but it's indeed a situation of guess upon guess what the final value will be. I'm sort of okay with that, as long as the initial guesses have been right it could surprise equally well to the upside as to the downside. But it will become interesting if the stock prices of their portfolio will move in a really big way for example since we have no clue if they have sold anything yet or not...

fishwithwings

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Re: VULC - Vulcan International
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2019, 06:46:22 AM »
I donít understand why you guys are still holding the stock. If you estimate the liquidation to return $140 per share, itís only 12% above todayís price and it could be another 2 more years until any distribution is paid.