Author Topic: CRTO - Criteo  (Read 6726 times)

gjangal

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Re: CRTO - Criteo
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2017, 06:41:25 PM »
Wanted to bump this topic up. The stock has gone from 50 to 33 in that last few months. ITP definitely is going to have an impact as discussed in the earnings call. The revenue impact is 9-13% for the next year 2018. This looks like a one time thing to me. The core revenue growth of this business is still around 10%. This stock is trading at 15 times ex cash. Not exactly cheap but a slower growth asset light business model at 15x . Benefits from eCommerce. Current year on track to do 930M in revenue. Bloomberg revenue estimates for the next 3 years is

2018 - 1.03B
2019 - 1.2B
2020 - 1.3B

There is the possibility that they might solve the negative impacts of ITP, that could give further upside.

Risks being revenue is in decline for next few years, then that could permanently put the stock on a lower trajectory


karthikpm

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Re: CRTO - Criteo
« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2017, 08:13:33 AM »
When you do any shopping online, CRTO  retargeted ads still appear. Seems like the ITP impact is significant on the mobile front particularly with apple. How big will the safari / ITP impact be ? most of the world is still windows and android

gjangal

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Re: CRTO - Criteo
« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2017, 09:07:50 AM »
Most of the revenue impact is due to itp on mobile, if you look at my post above 9-13% revenue impact is the guidance. Because itís a high operating leverage business, i want to wait and watch for earnings call next quarter.

They do 120m in fcf might do closer to 200m with growth in future. No debt, EV is 1900. Fully diluted shares is 68m

rogermunibond

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Re: CRTO - Criteo
« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2017, 11:13:46 AM »
Interesting comments from a competitor but again mostly the GOOG ad juggernaut.

https://twitter.com/BluegrassCap/status/941018186039906304

karthikpm

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gjangal

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Re: CRTO - Criteo
« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2017, 06:55:54 AM »
I sold out today. If management is not so sure, itís a bad sign

karthikpm

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