Author Topic: American life is improving for the lowest paid  (Read 1103 times)

shalab

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American life is improving for the lowest paid
« on: May 17, 2019, 08:23:26 PM »
https://outline.com/TegA4h

Looks positive for many folks and this continues into 2020, the current incumbent will be back in the white house


Cigarbutt

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2019, 05:09:53 AM »
A surprising and difficult to explain issue is the actual absence of more significant wage price pressures at this point of the unemployment cycle (10.0% in 2009 to 3.6% now).

You may find the following source of data interesting, especially the age, industry, education and wage levels categories:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx

Fascinating aspects include the younger cohort (age 16-24) where a significant part of the cohort, since 2009, have decided to go to skool instead of entering the job market ("building" significant student loans doing so). Also, of note, the only age cohort that has increased labor participation in this dynamic market is the 55 and older group. It seems older folks have discovered that the nest egg is insufficient. Many opt for basic level jobs in the hospitality, leisure, education or health industries and that may explain the relatively low wage pricing pressures overall. Every recovery is unique but this recovery has been very unusual.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/
Looking back, it seems that 1969 was a nice entry point. I also wish that (like in the Back to the future movie) somebody would have come back to speak to me in 1982 when equities were determined to be dead but then I was 16 and decided to invest in a motorcycle.

DTEJD1997

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2019, 07:34:25 AM »
Hey all:

Here in MI, pay rates for those in the lower class and unskilled jobs are rapidly increasing.

The other day, a Kentucky Fried Chicken in the better part of town was STARTING new workers at $13.50/hour.

Wages for contract attorneys are now up to $24-$25/hour.  Some of the recruiters are grumbling that they are having a bit of difficulty filling positions.  So wages could even go higher for contract attorneys!  Contrast that to 4-5 years ago when wages were $20-$21 an hour and there were rumors that the pay rate was going DOWN.

As I drive around town, I have seen a TON of help wanted signs in restaurants and other service places...but NOW I am starting more & more help wanted at small manufacturers, truck yards, warehouses and such.  These jobs tend to pay more than retail/service and frequently even have benefits.  If you see manufacturers hiring, you know the economy is strong and probably getting stronger.

I also think that this recovery is indeed different than most previous ones.  I think the unemployment/problems from the GFC were downplayed/overlooked to some degree.  That things were a bit worse than what was being reported.

I also think that different areas of the country are entering recovery LATER than some other parts.  For example, Michigan had been VERY SLOWLY recovering before the election.  Once Trump got in, things have most definitely accelerated.  California & New York probably were recovering before MI (and Midwest) was.

Hopefully it will continue!  I know many people who are STILL worse off financially NOW than they were 8-9-10 years ago.

Cigarbutt

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2019, 08:41:32 AM »
Hey all:

Here in MI, pay rates for those in the lower class and unskilled jobs are rapidly increasing.

The other day, a Kentucky Fried Chicken in the better part of town was STARTING new workers at $13.50/hour.
...
... If you see manufacturers hiring, you know the economy is strong and probably getting stronger.

I also think that this recovery is indeed different than most previous ones.  I think the unemployment/problems from the GFC were downplayed/overlooked to some degree.  That things were a bit worse than what was being reported.

I also think that different areas of the country are entering recovery LATER than some other parts.  For example, Michigan had been VERY SLOWLY recovering before the election.  Once Trump got in, things have most definitely accelerated.
...
Hopefully it will continue!  I know many people who are STILL worse off financially NOW than they were 8-9-10 years ago.
I appreciate the 'real' perspective that you provide but wonder about a few things.

How do you reconcile the acceleration that you see and the absence of such in overall numbers?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIMFG

I'm just a stupid Canadian living in the most socialist province that benefits from the generosity of neighbouring jurisdictions but don't you see the forming socialist wave occurring in your country and perhaps even in your own State?

The following reference is from the opposing camp but the data is real. Real people in Michigan have seen wages rising but the wage rises have not kept up with the growing costs of basic necessities.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/04/08/uwar-a08.html

Don't you think ALICE people will find the siren song irresistible if present real trends continue?
I'd say 'uneducated' people (the backbone and fabric of society) don't get much love these days.

DTEJD1997

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2019, 09:07:45 AM »
Hey all:

Here in MI, pay rates for those in the lower class and unskilled jobs are rapidly increasing.

The other day, a Kentucky Fried Chicken in the better part of town was STARTING new workers at $13.50/hour.
...
... If you see manufacturers hiring, you know the economy is strong and probably getting stronger.

I also think that this recovery is indeed different than most previous ones.  I think the unemployment/problems from the GFC were downplayed/overlooked to some degree.  That things were a bit worse than what was being reported.

I also think that different areas of the country are entering recovery LATER than some other parts.  For example, Michigan had been VERY SLOWLY recovering before the election.  Once Trump got in, things have most definitely accelerated.
...
Hopefully it will continue!  I know many people who are STILL worse off financially NOW than they were 8-9-10 years ago.
I appreciate the 'real' perspective that you provide but wonder about a few things.

How do you reconcile the acceleration that you see and the absence of such in overall numbers?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIMFG

I'm just a stupid Canadian living in the most socialist province that benefits from the generosity of neighbouring jurisdictions but don't you see the forming socialist wave occurring in your country and perhaps even in your own State?

The following reference is from the opposing camp but the data is real. Real people in Michigan have seen wages rising but the wage rises have not kept up with the growing costs of basic necessities.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/04/08/uwar-a08.html

Don't you think ALICE people will find the siren song irresistible if present real trends continue?
I'd say 'uneducated' people (the backbone and fabric of society) don't get much love these days.

The first link shows manufacturing jobs growing in MI as time progresses, so that is confirming what I am seeing.  It also could be me that my little area of the state is experiencing STRONGER growth than other areas?  I don't know about that.  What I DO know about is that Friday I was surprised by the number of Help Wanted and We're Hiring signs out at small job shops on the East side of the city.  More than I've ever seen before.

The 2nd link did not load.

Michigan can be a VERY high cost state when you factor in auto insurance, water & sewer, bad road conditions (repairs made to vehicles to correct that), gas taxes, income taxes, and ESPECIALLY property taxes.

What has scared me lately is that I know some very highly educated people who are VERY angry/disenfranchised.  They spent a lot of time & capital getting educations and for various reasons they have trouble getting jobs.  They ESPECIALLY have trouble getting jobs that pay for the time & capital they spent to attain them.  They live paycheck to paycheck.  No retirement savings (or very little), no healthcare, no benefits.  Most importantly of all, they are buried under insane amounts of student loan debt and have no realistic way out.  These people may decide to "flip the table" and upend the system.  Why not?  Under the current structure, they are trapped.

You've also got a problem that you've got TONS of kids getting out of high skool with NO financial education at all.  They can't balance a check book, no nothing of the stock market/capital formation, little to no financial discipline. Not taught to save/invest, they just have no financial education.  That is obviously bad, but they will fall prey to politicians promising them "something for nothing". 

Some asset prices are still rising WAY faster than wages (housing, education, health care), so as time progresses, more & more people get priced out of those things.

I think there is a chance for incredible social change/dislocation than most people realize.  I think this is DOUBLY true if there is another big downturn/crash.  If another crash happens, there could be a real chance of social change/breakdown.


shalab

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2019, 09:29:26 AM »
The second article looks like it is from the socialist group, I didn't read it - certainly there is a lot of spin in that. Even mainstream media in the US are spinning things. Economist a left leaning magazine had good things to say about the US economy - so obviously things are looking ok. I am not saying there are no issues - the cost of education and healthcare are definitely open issues


Hey all:

Here in MI, pay rates for those in the lower class and unskilled jobs are rapidly increasing.

The other day, a Kentucky Fried Chicken in the better part of town was STARTING new workers at $13.50/hour.
...
... If you see manufacturers hiring, you know the economy is strong and probably getting stronger.

I also think that this recovery is indeed different than most previous ones.  I think the unemployment/problems from the GFC were downplayed/overlooked to some degree.  That things were a bit worse than what was being reported.

I also think that different areas of the country are entering recovery LATER than some other parts.  For example, Michigan had been VERY SLOWLY recovering before the election.  Once Trump got in, things have most definitely accelerated.
...
Hopefully it will continue!  I know many people who are STILL worse off financially NOW than they were 8-9-10 years ago.
I appreciate the 'real' perspective that you provide but wonder about a few things.

How do you reconcile the acceleration that you see and the absence of such in overall numbers?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIMFG

I'm just a stupid Canadian living in the most socialist province that benefits from the generosity of neighbouring jurisdictions but don't you see the forming socialist wave occurring in your country and perhaps even in your own State?

The following reference is from the opposing camp but the data is real. Real people in Michigan have seen wages rising but the wage rises have not kept up with the growing costs of basic necessities.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/04/08/uwar-a08.html

Don't you think ALICE people will find the siren song irresistible if present real trends continue?
I'd say 'uneducated' people (the backbone and fabric of society) don't get much love these days.

Cigarbutt

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2019, 04:40:53 PM »
The first link shows manufacturing jobs growing in MI as time progresses, so that is confirming what I am seeing.  It also could be me that my little area of the state is experiencing STRONGER growth than other areas?  I don't know about that.  What I DO know about is that Friday I was surprised by the number of Help Wanted and We're Hiring signs out at small job shops on the East side of the city.  More than I've ever seen before.

The 2nd link did not load.

Michigan can be a VERY high cost state when you factor in auto insurance, water & sewer, bad road conditions (repairs made to vehicles to correct that), gas taxes, income taxes, and ESPECIALLY property taxes.

What has scared me lately is that I know some very highly educated people who are VERY angry/disenfranchised.  They spent a lot of time & capital getting educations and for various reasons they have trouble getting jobs.  They ESPECIALLY have trouble getting jobs that pay for the time & capital they spent to attain them.  They live paycheck to paycheck.  No retirement savings (or very little), no healthcare, no benefits.  Most importantly of all, they are buried under insane amounts of student loan debt and have no realistic way out.  These people may decide to "flip the table" and upend the system.  Why not?  Under the current structure, they are trapped.

You've also got a problem that you've got TONS of kids getting out of high skool with NO financial education at all.  They can't balance a check book, no nothing of the stock market/capital formation, little to no financial discipline. Not taught to save/invest, they just have no financial education.  That is obviously bad, but they will fall prey to politicians promising them "something for nothing". 

Some asset prices are still rising WAY faster than wages (housing, education, health care), so as time progresses, more & more people get priced out of those things.

I think there is a chance for incredible social change/dislocation than most people realize.  I think this is DOUBLY true if there is another big downturn/crash.  If another crash happens, there could be a real chance of social change/breakdown.
Thanks for the feedback. Shalab is right and the link does present the data in a biased fashion but, basically, ALICE people are Asset Limited Income Constrained-Employed and the link simply discusses a report that United Way puts out every year. (is United Way considered a subversive organization in Michigan?) They underline objective data that shows that the costs of basic necessities (shelter costs, healthcare, medications, child daycare and education) have outpaced inflation levels and nominal wages by a wide margin. The American Dream is still possible with frugality, drive, basic financial knowledge and some luck. It's just harder now in this winning economy(?).

It seems that Michigan was decimated by the auto manufacturing demise and it looks like your area has not recovered yet. Hopefully it will.

shalab

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Re: American life is improving for the lowest paid
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2019, 05:06:52 PM »
Michigan is growing at a slower rate than the country as a whole

http://www.senate.michigan.gov/sfa/Publications/BudUpdates/EconomicOutlookMay19.pdf

The first link shows manufacturing jobs growing in MI as time progresses, so that is confirming what I am seeing.  It also could be me that my little area of the state is experiencing STRONGER growth than other areas?  I don't know about that.  What I DO know about is that Friday I was surprised by the number of Help Wanted and We're Hiring signs out at small job shops on the East side of the city.  More than I've ever seen before.

The 2nd link did not load.

Michigan can be a VERY high cost state when you factor in auto insurance, water & sewer, bad road conditions (repairs made to vehicles to correct that), gas taxes, income taxes, and ESPECIALLY property taxes.

What has scared me lately is that I know some very highly educated people who are VERY angry/disenfranchised.  They spent a lot of time & capital getting educations and for various reasons they have trouble getting jobs.  They ESPECIALLY have trouble getting jobs that pay for the time & capital they spent to attain them.  They live paycheck to paycheck.  No retirement savings (or very little), no healthcare, no benefits.  Most importantly of all, they are buried under insane amounts of student loan debt and have no realistic way out.  These people may decide to "flip the table" and upend the system.  Why not?  Under the current structure, they are trapped.

You've also got a problem that you've got TONS of kids getting out of high skool with NO financial education at all.  They can't balance a check book, no nothing of the stock market/capital formation, little to no financial discipline. Not taught to save/invest, they just have no financial education.  That is obviously bad, but they will fall prey to politicians promising them "something for nothing". 

Some asset prices are still rising WAY faster than wages (housing, education, health care), so as time progresses, more & more people get priced out of those things.

I think there is a chance for incredible social change/dislocation than most people realize.  I think this is DOUBLY true if there is another big downturn/crash.  If another crash happens, there could be a real chance of social change/breakdown.
Thanks for the feedback. Shalab is right and the link does present the data in a biased fashion but, basically, ALICE people are Asset Limited Income Constrained-Employed and the link simply discusses a report that United Way puts out every year. (is United Way considered a subversive organization in Michigan?) They underline objective data that shows that the costs of basic necessities (shelter costs, healthcare, medications, child daycare and education) have outpaced inflation levels and nominal wages by a wide margin. The American Dream is still possible with frugality, drive, basic financial knowledge and some luck. It's just harder now in this winning economy(?).

It seems that Michigan was decimated by the auto manufacturing demise and it looks like your area has not recovered yet. Hopefully it will.