Author Topic: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?  (Read 2490 times)

DTEJD1997

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Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« on: February 21, 2018, 10:38:37 AM »
Hey all:

I was listening to some of the gun control people on the radio...

It hit me that gun control is a TRAP for TRUMP.

WHY?

If Trump pushes/enacts significant gun control...what does it gain him?

The gun control advocates will be saying that it does not go far enough (no matter what is done).  They are not going to stop criticizing Trump.  They certainly will not be voting for him.

CONVERSELY

The gun advocates are going to be cheesed off.  They most likely voted for Trump, but he risks losing (some of) their support.  Any movement on Trump's part (other than banning/restricting bumpstocks) is likely to lose NRA & gun advocate support.

So what does he gain?  What does he lose?

I think he has nothing to gain, and something to lose...thus, it is a trap, no-win political situation.


sleepydragon

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2018, 11:54:23 AM »
He didnít expect to win the last election, and he certainly donít plan on to win in the next one. Why he care? He is more care about opening new trump hotels in India.

But itís a valid concern for GOPs nov election. If they lose, the tax cuts could very well be rolled back.

DTEJD1997

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2018, 03:38:14 PM »
He didnít expect to win the last election, and he certainly donít plan on to win in the next one. Why he care? He is more care about opening new trump hotels in India.

But itís a valid concern for GOPs nov election. If they lose, the tax cuts could very well be rolled back.

I heard somewhere today that if the GOP loses control of the House & Senate, then there is a good chance that Trump will face impeachment AND the tax cuts will cancelled/rolled back.

If that comes to pass, I think the USA will be thrown into chaos.  The market will go down, and go down BIGLY.  A lot of businesses are depending on these tax cuts.  If those go, the economy is going to contract and unemployment would surge.

Of course, maybe that is what is wanted?

sleepydragon

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2018, 04:07:01 PM »
He didnít expect to win the last election, and he certainly donít plan on to win in the next one. Why he care? He is more care about opening new trump hotels in India.

But itís a valid concern for GOPs nov election. If they lose, the tax cuts could very well be rolled back.

I heard somewhere today that if the GOP loses control of the House & Senate, then there is a good chance that Trump will face impeachment AND the tax cuts will cancelled/rolled back.

If that comes to pass, I think the USA will be thrown into chaos.  The market will go down, and go down BIGLY.  A lot of businesses are depending on these tax cuts.  If those go, the economy is going to contract and unemployment would surge.

Of course, maybe that is what is wanted?

Sure. But I thought market would crash if  trump is elected and I was wrong. Anyway, I would rather mkt go down in the short term than having Putin decide whoís my president and having NRA commit mass murders

DTEJD1997

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2018, 09:08:26 PM »
He didnít expect to win the last election, and he certainly donít plan on to win in the next one. Why he care? He is more care about opening new trump hotels in India.

But itís a valid concern for GOPs nov election. If they lose, the tax cuts could very well be rolled back.

I heard somewhere today that if the GOP loses control of the House & Senate, then there is a good chance that Trump will face impeachment AND the tax cuts will cancelled/rolled back.

If that comes to pass, I think the USA will be thrown into chaos.  The market will go down, and go down BIGLY.  A lot of businesses are depending on these tax cuts.  If those go, the economy is going to contract and unemployment would surge.

Of course, maybe that is what is wanted?

Sure. But I thought market would crash if  trump is elected and I was wrong. Anyway, I would rather mkt go down in the short term than having Putin decide whoís my president and having NRA commit mass murders

I thought the tax reform/reduction was a good thing.  Here in Michigan, unemployment is down, businesses are expanding, and there is a cautious sense of economic optimism.  Of course, Michigan is frequently WELL behind the rest of the nation.

I think though if the tax reductions are rolled back OR are effective for only one year, it will result in capital spending going down SUBSTANTIALLY.  If that happens, profits are down, unemployment is up...and so on.

I think gun control, Russian meddling, and tax reform are 3 different things, for the most part.

Has anybody else heard of Democrats wanting to roll back the tax reforms/cuts?

rb

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2018, 09:56:53 PM »
This is exactly the type of sociopathic logic/thinking typical of Americans and American politics. Why should I do anything that doesn't benefit me personally. So what if children are executed in schools? If it doesn't benefit me personally who cares right? Maybe you're right.

But maybe you're wrong and voters do care. Voters in Connecticut care. But it's not like Florida is an electorally important state where small changes in electorate can make a big difference.

Or maybe for now you can keep getting away with sending thoughts and prayers. But you have a new category of single issue voters developing. The ones that would like for them, their kids, and loved ones to not be shot up. Maybe that group is not big enough yet... but it's growing every day. Maybe that group won't be large enough in time to vote out the current mummies in congress (so they're safe/right in their sociopathic thinking) but that day will come. Your kid/brother/sister taking 2 in the chest tends to leave a lasting impression.

rb

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2018, 10:28:54 PM »
Has anybody else heard of Democrats wanting to roll back the tax reforms/cuts?
Well the democrats didn't say anything but I think you'll raise taxes. You have 104% debt to GDP and you're projected to run a 5.7% deficit at full employment. Btw I think your deficit will be higher than that. It's mathematically impossible impossible for the US to maintain the status quo.

So you have a few choices: raise taxes, cut social security, cut medicare, or cut military. You won't cut social security or medicare no matter the contents of Paul Ryan's wet dreams. That's because the beneficiaries of those programs show up to vote and no matter how much Fox News they watch they seem to like those programs a lot!

Maybe you could get away with cutting military. Even though they tend to be big donors it's been done before. But then tax hikes happened before as well. So if I had to bet I'd bet on a bullshit storm followed by tax hikes.

Edit: The funny thing in all of this is that the US is throwing a ton of stimulus while at full employment. All that stimulus will be sterilized by the Fed. So economically speaking it's just pissing money down the drain. But hey, it's fun.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 12:03:14 AM by rb »

rukawa

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2018, 09:37:34 AM »
Edit: The funny thing in all of this is that the US is throwing a ton of stimulus while at full employment. All that stimulus will be sterilized by the Fed. So economically speaking it's just pissing money down the drain. But hey, it's fun.

A tonne of stimulus while at full employment implies wage increases...doesn't it? Which I suspect means workers wages increase and corporate profits decrease.

Let me get your argument straight though you are saying that in the counterfactual world where no stimulus was applied but the Fed increased interest rates there would be no difference in outcomes?

rkbabang

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2018, 10:43:47 AM »
Hey all:

I was listening to some of the gun control people on the radio...

It hit me that gun control is a TRAP for TRUMP.

WHY?

If Trump pushes/enacts significant gun control...what does it gain him?

The gun control advocates will be saying that it does not go far enough (no matter what is done).  They are not going to stop criticizing Trump.  They certainly will not be voting for him.

CONVERSELY

The gun advocates are going to be cheesed off.  They most likely voted for Trump, but he risks losing (some of) their support.  Any movement on Trump's part (other than banning/restricting bumpstocks) is likely to lose NRA & gun advocate support.

So what does he gain?  What does he lose?

I think he has nothing to gain, and something to lose...thus, it is a trap, no-win political situation.

I think you are exactly correct.  Only it isn't a no win situation, he could do nothing or even push loosening of the gun laws, such as repeal the gun free school zone nonsense and push for concealed carry reciprocity.   This would further strengthen and motivate his base while the only people who would go apeshit are the ones who already hate him with such an irrational passion that they can be safely ignored.   There is nothing he can do to win over the left, why on Earth would he even try?

rb

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Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2018, 12:56:07 PM »
Edit: The funny thing in all of this is that the US is throwing a ton of stimulus while at full employment. All that stimulus will be sterilized by the Fed. So economically speaking it's just pissing money down the drain. But hey, it's fun.

A tonne of stimulus while at full employment implies wage increases...doesn't it? Which I suspect means workers wages increase and corporate profits decrease.

Let me get your argument straight though you are saying that in the counterfactual world where no stimulus was applied but the Fed increased interest rates there would be no difference in outcomes?
Basically yes.