Author Topic: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?  (Read 2753 times)

Cardboard

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2019, 06:10:53 AM »
"I agree with LC and I think that the spike in the stock market when Trump was elected was due to a reduction in the uncertainty premium and/or the ambiguity premium. Just because Trump says over and over again that the market went up because he was elected, does not make it true. The 2016 campaign was so polarizing that the market likely would have gone up regardless of who won."

You have a selective memory.

The night of the election, the stock market plunged when it was announced that Trump won. He was seen as disruptive and not the candidate wanted by Wall Street or status quo: Hillary.

Seeing that, Carl Icahn got onto his computer and bought stocks all night long thinking that Trump policies were pro-business, lower taxes and that the market was wrong.

He was right!

While with Hillary, the market would have likely stayed stagnant or heading down as she would have continued and even increased Obama's policies of high regulation, highest corporate income tax rate in the world. As a result of these policies, GDP growth was highly anemic in 2016 and it was obvious that something needed to happen to break away from 0% GDP growth or even falling into a recession.

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cubsfan

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2019, 06:23:38 AM »
You have a selective memory.

So, so true - and these guys talk about intellectual honesty in the face of facts.

They know that business confidence is a powerful driver of economic activity.
They know that business operators just want to know what the rules are - and not have to worry about silly excess regulation.
They also know that unemployment is at historic lows and much of Middle America is working again.

But the facts don't matter, so long as it has anything to do with Trump economic policies.

Read the Footnotes

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2019, 06:42:14 AM »
Here is a graphical representation of the panic and euphoria during the trading week (Monday to Friday) of the previous four U.S. Presidential elections which are held on Tuesdays.

Trump 2016, November 8, 2016 +1.5%
Obama 2012, November 6, 2012 -2.6%
Obama 2008, November 4, 2008 -7.4%
Bush 2004, November 2, 2004 +3.2%

Be sure to check the attached files for a better sense of the volatility surrounding the elections.

Read the Footnotes

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2019, 06:46:25 AM »
"I agree with LC and I think that the spike in the stock market when Trump was elected was due to a reduction in the uncertainty premium and/or the ambiguity premium. Just because Trump says over and over again that the market went up because he was elected, does not make it true. The 2016 campaign was so polarizing that the market likely would have gone up regardless of who won."

You have a selective memory.

The night of the election, the stock market plunged when it was announced that Trump won. He was seen as disruptive and not the candidate wanted by Wall Street or status quo: Hillary.

Seeing that, Carl Icahn got onto his computer and bought stocks all night long thinking that Trump policies were pro-business, lower taxes and that the market was wrong.

He was right!

While with Hillary, the market would have likely stayed stagnant or heading down as she would have continued and even increased Obama's policies of high regulation, highest corporate income tax rate in the world. As a result of these policies, GDP growth was highly anemic in 2016 and it was obvious that something needed to happen to break away from 0% GDP growth or even falling into a recession.

Cardboard

I stand corrected. "Spike" was a poor choice of words. Please excuse my laziness in not speaking more precisely. My intent was to counter Trump's narrative that the market reacted positively to him. Obviously we agree on that point.

LC

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2019, 08:43:04 AM »
Quote from: Viking
I agree in general. Hoewever, i think this time may be different. Trump has been very good for businesses in the US and business sentiment soared after he was elected.

Quote from: Read the Footnotes
I think that the spike in the stock market when Trump was elected was due to a reduction in the uncertainty premium and/or the ambiguity premium.

Quote from: Cardboard
The night of the election, the stock market plunged when it was announced that Trump won. He was seen as disruptive and not the candidate wanted by Wall Street or status quo: Hillary.


Quote from: cubsfan
So, so true - and these guys talk about intellectual honesty in the face of facts.

They know that business confidence is a powerful driver of economic activity.
They know that business operators just want to know what the rules are - and not have to worry about silly excess regulation.
They also know that unemployment is at historic lows and much of Middle America is working again.



I find it truly incredible that we have these comments from folks who must have skipped past a view of the 20-year chart of the major market barometer (SP 500 index).


Annualized Total Returns (i.e. with dividends) of the S&P500:

Post Recession (06/09) - Obama's End of Office (12/16): 14.85%

Trump's First Day in Office (01/17) to Date (09/19): 12.9%

The reality is that the rate of economic growth has not deviated from Obama's term to Trump's term.
Go visit FRED and look at the major macro indicators and it illustrates this.

All the talk of "business confidence" "great for business" "silly excess regulation" "business ambiguity" is absolute nonsense because there is zero evidence to support it.

Furthermore the discussion over stock market spikes over a 1-3 day period is also nonsense. What is a better barometer of the economic health of this country, a 1 day change in market price, or a 15 year timeline of market growth?
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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Cardboard

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2019, 08:54:56 AM »
LC please don't lecture us as your thinking is flawed.

What is easier? To have a growing stock market from a bottom or a growing stock market from last few innings?

Obama got into office in January 2009 or after all the debacle. Already TARP was in place, bad banks had already failed, etc. It was like shooting fish in a barrel.

Then he implement policies to slow down the recovery such as Obamacare, regulations on all kinds of things. So in essence your numbers prove my point as the growth in the stock market should have been much higher than Trump and it isn't.

Why is the obvious so difficult for you to understand? Go back in history, look at various policies and please tell me that governance has zero impact.

Why has governance so much impact with companies but, zero with countries per your thesis? This does not hold up!

RuleNumberOne

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2019, 08:56:34 AM »
All the following are the same type as far as the economy and stock market are concerned: Bill Clinton, George Bush, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump. It didn't make a difference who was in power.

But Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are a different breed.

Elizabeth and Bernie are not gifted public speakers. They are very old and have zero charisma. Their only claim to fame is the promise of trillion-dollar bribes to everyone in sight.

Bernie said 2+2 = 7 and didn't make it.

Elizabeth said 2+2 = 12 and is getting very close.

RuleNumberOne

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2019, 09:06:42 AM »
Elizabeth winning the nomination is a no-brainer to me. Bernie's voters will break for Warren when it becomes obvious he is not going to make it.

Here is a trillion for you, a trillion for you too, a trillion for the people in that corner, a trillion for the people sitting in the front, a trillion for the people in the parking lot. Everybody line up and pick up your trillion.

As the election season progresses, the math keeps progressing:
2+2 = 12
2+2 = 15
2+2 = 20
2+2 = 25

RuleNumberOne

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2019, 09:22:54 AM »
Bernie canceled campaign events for a surgery to clear out his arteries.

Biden is two years younger than Bernie.

73-year-old Trump better have clear arteries.

Otherwise 70-year-old Elizabeth becomes president because everyone else is having chest pain and blocked arteries!

LC

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2019, 09:23:35 AM »
Quote
LC please don't lecture us as your thinking is flawed.
It must feel that way when data is used to support an argument.

Why hasn't Trump eclipsed Obama's growth rates, despite slashing corporate taxes and removing "unneccessay" regulation?

Or to put it more bluntly, why don't you have evidence to support your argument?
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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