Author Topic: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum  (Read 35804 times)

John Hjorth

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #370 on: June 10, 2018, 05:20:05 AM »
How do you assess the situation now, cobafdek?

[I have no intent to appear condecending here, it's for my part really meant as an open question, and not about "Who wins" in this topic, more like "How do you expect this to play out going forward, from where we are with it right now?"]
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cobafdek

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #371 on: June 10, 2018, 09:35:04 AM »
The U.S. had the leverage going into the trade dispute several months ago, and it continues to have that leverage.   Negotiators like Trump don't make gambits like this without such leverage.  The U.S. can withstand tariffs on its goods better than our trading partners can withstand our tariffs on theirs.

Trump's suggestion about dropping all tariffs - with the ultimate goal of *real* free trade - was a touché psychological move.  Trump took the high ground.  Trudeau, Macron, et al., are left speechless and caught with their pants down.  How can they respond with any credibility if they profess to believe in free trade?

When this is all over, it's ultimately a win-win for the U.S. the rest of the world.  There will be freer trade.

John Hjorth

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #372 on: June 10, 2018, 09:46:47 AM »
Thank you for sharing your thoughts here, cobafdek,

I really hope that your're right. And thank you for reading my question and replying to it the way it was meant by me.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Spekulatius

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #373 on: June 10, 2018, 06:31:52 PM »
Trumpf does not have a mandate to propose free trade. He has never discussed this anywhere with the parties here and it was just one idea one of these things with a 5min lifespan that he had in the spur of the moment.

Trumpf is now regarded as a
grown up kid that throws tantrums and is unpredictable. Best thing to do is to isolate it and let it cook in its own juice. Bullying other countries does not work, because if  a country is decided, it will unify when you apply pressure from outside. If he cancels NAFTA, it will hurt Mexico a lot, but there will be considerable pain in the US industry especially the automobile industry. I think it could well bankrupt some companies (suppliers) and maybe even the manufacturers like Ford. The supply chain has become very dependent on supplies from both Canada and Mexico, so abolishing NAFTA would be very costly and disruptive.

The tail end risk for the stock market have increased significantly, but so far Mr. Market does not seem to care.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

tengen

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #374 on: June 12, 2018, 10:10:56 AM »
If Trump's trade war hits US citizens in the pocketbook, I believe they will turn on Trump faster than citizens in other countries will turn on their governments for opposing Trump.

rkbabang

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #375 on: June 12, 2018, 10:34:14 AM »
The U.S. had the leverage going into the trade dispute several months ago, and it continues to have that leverage.   Negotiators like Trump don't make gambits like this without such leverage.  The U.S. can withstand tariffs on its goods better than our trading partners can withstand our tariffs on theirs.

Trump's suggestion about dropping all tariffs - with the ultimate goal of *real* free trade - was a touché psychological move.  Trump took the high ground.  Trudeau, Macron, et al., are left speechless and caught with their pants down.  How can they respond with any credibility if they profess to believe in free trade?

When this is all over, it's ultimately a win-win for the U.S. the rest of the world.  There will be freer trade.


It is a long term win-win for everyone if this happens (even if everyone doesn't realize it).   But the downside risk is that if no one drops their tariffs there will be less free trade than before.  Yes, the US can probably withstand it better than others, but a falling tide lowers all boats.

rb

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #376 on: June 12, 2018, 11:54:22 AM »
It is a long term win-win for everyone if this happens (even if everyone doesn't realize it).   But the downside risk is that if no one drops their tariffs there will be less free trade than before.  Yes, the US can probably withstand it better than others, but a falling tide lowers all boats.
That statement is not true in the case of Canada and it's probably not true in the case of Canada. In other cases it may or may not be true. But sure, go ahead and tax the crap out of your citizenry and destabilize your economy.

rkbabang

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #377 on: June 12, 2018, 12:44:52 PM »
It is a long term win-win for everyone if this happens (even if everyone doesn't realize it).   But the downside risk is that if no one drops their tariffs there will be less free trade than before.  Yes, the US can probably withstand it better than others, but a falling tide lowers all boats.
That statement is not true in the case of Canada and it's probably not true in the case of Canada. In other cases it may or may not be true. But sure, go ahead and tax the crap out of your citizenry and destabilize your economy.

Is that like Schrödinger's Canada where something is definitely not true and only probably not true at the same time?   Anyway I agree, taxation of any type benefits no one, ever.

rb

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #378 on: June 12, 2018, 12:57:40 PM »
No Schrodinger here. I said it's not true for Canada, probably not true for Germany, and not sure of the others. This is due to the nature of the respective trading relationships - i.e. what the countries trade with each other. The level of confidence is based on how well I've researched the respective trading relationships.

Spekulatius

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #379 on: June 12, 2018, 05:51:24 PM »
It is true that the US can withstand a trade ware better economically than anyone else, but I don’t think they can withstand a trade war politically as well. The countries that will get tariffs imposed, will feel bullied and in this case, against a foreign villain, it is easy to unify a country and sell some hardship and retaliate back. In addition, the US is trade warmongering  against many countries at the same time, which will lead to a coordinated response, at least to some extend.

Maybe even some trade unions between countries will evolve without the US is this drags on for a longer timeframe.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.