Author Topic: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum  (Read 62651 times)

Gregmal

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #580 on: September 21, 2018, 03:08:19 PM »
I was at the marina today and looking at boats. Was told that the tariffs greatly effected the prices of 90HP and under engines. As a result there is essentially no price difference between those and the 115-125HP ones that are made in America. The marinas are buying the American made ones, and people are getting better products. I don't think the lower HP engines being 25% more expensive is preventing anyone from owning a boat either.


cubsfan

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #581 on: September 21, 2018, 03:14:59 PM »
I was at the marina today and looking at boats. Was told that the tariffs greatly effected the prices of 90HP and under engines. As a result there is essentially no price difference between those and the 115-125HP ones that are made in America. The marinas are buying the American made ones, and people are getting better products. I don't think the lower HP engines being 25% more expensive is preventing anyone from owning a boat either.

Greg, your CoBF buddies are having none of that - the world is falling apart because Americans are working again.
The US is no longer a "global" player that plays fair and takes it up the ass from their trading partners.

Another case of TDS.



« Last Edit: September 22, 2018, 05:11:24 AM by cubsfan »

Cigarbutt

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #582 on: September 21, 2018, 05:11:16 PM »
You dudes are missing the point, the party of the working classes fucked over the working class - and the working class gave them the boot.
Now the economy is on fire - but you are predicting we are going back to the 1950's and America is going backward!

Everyone is happy, except the Dems. Now we get to watch these other countries run trade deficits.

"Make America Great Again"  is working.

Have a nice weekend jokers!

Question for you from an 'uneducated' Canadian.

If the economy is now firing on all cylinders and if the trade war is working beautifully, why then are real wages not improving?
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/real-average-hourly-earnings-up-0-point-2-percent-for-all-private-employees-april-2017-to-april-2018.htm?view_full
Since April, the "picture" has not changed.
Also, if you disaggregate the data, you may find that the averages hide the uncomfortable conclusion that the higher wages earned by a certain elite are compensated by lower wages for the very forgotten that you refer to.
Have a good weekend too.

meiroy

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #583 on: September 21, 2018, 09:04:16 PM »
OK let's see what I remember from my Ekonomischticks 101.

1. Some professions such as software engineering are built on experience.   So, if basic programming tasks are moved from country A to country B, country A might find itself later on with a lack of experienced programmers. Likewise for other professions.

2. As any value investors would know, time arbitrage is a thing.  We accept waiting for 2 - 5 years (for the U.S.A., I wouldn't try this trick for Venezuela).  Economies work on even a longer scale.  #rhetoricisfun

3. If country A all of a sudden starts to place tariffs on country B.  Does it necessarily mean that party A  *started* a "trade war"?  Yes, if everything was equal between the two.  if, on the other hand, country A has an extremely open economy while country B has an extremely close economy, the word "start" should be removed from the discussion.


3.1 Would tariff resolve trade imbalances? Probably not because it might just go through country C.

4. But, but, country C, D and E and F all do it ( does it go all the way to Z? now I know my...) why can't B? Because B's economy is now significantly large (and was for a long time now) to negatively impact A's economy.


5. Country B spends a tremendous amount of resources and money, which originates from the non-private sector, leading to the fact that private companies in country A find it extremely hard to compete.  Country B products are now extremely cheap and it exports these products to Country A. Because "trade makes things cheaper". Yay.  Is this necessarily a net benefit to country A, in the long run?

6. Country A supports the development of country B in various ways, under the belief that country B's markets and structure will become similar to country A's.  One day, Country A wakes up from its daydreaming and finds out this is not happening.  What should it do?  Should it just continue in the same way because, hey "trade made us all these cheap stuff"?, or should it look into the future, say 5, 10 to 50 years from now?

7. These days, is the surplus or deficit between countries A and B depends on the trade of goods? No.





cubsfan

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #584 on: September 22, 2018, 02:10:46 AM »
You dudes are missing the point, the party of the working classes fucked over the working class - and the working class gave them the boot.
Now the economy is on fire - but you are predicting we are going back to the 1950's and America is going backward!

Everyone is happy, except the Dems. Now we get to watch these other countries run trade deficits.

"Make America Great Again"  is working.

Have a nice weekend jokers!

Question for you from an 'uneducated' Canadian.

If the economy is now firing on all cylinders and if the trade war is working beautifully, why then are real wages not improving?
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/real-average-hourly-earnings-up-0-point-2-percent-for-all-private-employees-april-2017-to-april-2018.htm?view_full
Since April, the "picture" has not changed.
Also, if you disaggregate the data, you may find that the averages hide the uncomfortable conclusion that the higher wages earned by a certain elite are compensated by lower wages for the very forgotten that you refer to.
Have a good weekend too.

You may be certainly be correct. That I do not know. It does not seem like wages are going up, but jobs are certainly opening up. Even in ILL, I am
seeing help wanted signs all over the place. Job recruiters are real busy. There is certainly an issue with education, where skilled workers are in demand.
This should have happened a long time ago, and did not need to take 8 years.

So lets see how it all plays out. Have a great weekend yourself.

MarkS

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #585 on: September 22, 2018, 07:29:49 AM »
Please excuse my ignorance.  I keep reading from people on this board about how bad tariffs are for the economy.  But I see the market shrug off the possibility of tariffs and continue straight up.  I've also read the following:

"Total Impact of Enacted and Announced Tariffs

If all tariffs announced thus far were fully enacted by the United States and foreign jurisdictions, U.S. GDP would fall by 0.59 percent ($148.33 billion) in the long run, effectively offsetting one-third of the long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Wages would fall by 0.38 percent and employment would fall by 459,816.

The 0.59 percent reduction in long-run GDP is one-third the total long-run impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which we estimated to raise GDP by 1.7 percent in the long run."

https://taxfoundation.org/tracker-economic-impact-tariffs/#total

If all of the tariffs announced would only have the impact of reducing the benefits of the tax cut by 1/3, that doesn't strike me as particularly bad - especially in light of the positives that might come from challenging China among others.




SharperDingaan

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #586 on: September 22, 2018, 09:24:25 AM »
OK let's see what I remember from my Ekonomischticks 101.

1. Some professions such as software engineering are built on experience.   So, if basic programming tasks are moved from country A to country B, country A might find itself later on with a lack of experienced programmers. Likewise for other professions.

2. As any value investors would know, time arbitrage is a thing.  We accept waiting for 2 - 5 years (for the U.S.A., I wouldn't try this trick for Venezuela).  Economies work on even a longer scale.  #rhetoricisfun

3. If country A all of a sudden starts to place tariffs on country B.  Does it necessarily mean that party A  *started* a "trade war"?  Yes, if everything was equal between the two.  if, on the other hand, country A has an extremely open economy while country B has an extremely close economy, the word "start" should be removed from the discussion.


3.1 Would tariff resolve trade imbalances? Probably not because it might just go through country C.

4. But, but, country C, D and E and F all do it ( does it go all the way to Z? now I know my...) why can't B? Because B's economy is now significantly large (and was for a long time now) to negatively impact A's economy.


5. Country B spends a tremendous amount of resources and money, which originates from the non-private sector, leading to the fact that private companies in country A find it extremely hard to compete.  Country B products are now extremely cheap and it exports these products to Country A. Because "trade makes things cheaper". Yay.  Is this necessarily a net benefit to country A, in the long run?

6. Country A supports the development of country B in various ways, under the belief that country B's markets and structure will become similar to country A's.  One day, Country A wakes up from its daydreaming and finds out this is not happening.  What should it do?  Should it just continue in the same way because, hey "trade made us all these cheap stuff"?, or should it look into the future, say 5, 10 to 50 years from now?

7. These days, is the surplus or deficit between countries A and B depends on the trade of goods? No.

Just for balance ....

Trump started with the tariffs in early June, and eveyone responded with matching tariffs. Real smart boy that he is, he didn't put tariffs on just China (apparently the target) - he put them on Canada, Mexico, and the EU as well, escalated, and claimed it as a 'negotiating tactic'. All the counterparties have publicly stated they are just responding in kind - unwind the US tariffs and they will unwind in kind. Not the 'alternative facts' of the white-house propaganda line.

Your preferance for an open economy, does not obligate other countries to follow; your economic model is just one of many.
If you think partners aren't being fair, you don't have to buy from them; if you choose to trade you've accepted the terms. But if you aren't going to buy their cheaper goods - you're going to have to either make them yourself at a higher price, or buy them from somewhere else and pay more. Goods are going to cost more.

You buy from me, and I'll buy from you.
You buy more from me than I sell to you, and you run a trade deficit. The size of that deficit evidences my net comparative advantage over you: if we allow our currencies to float - my currency appreciates and yours devalues. Dont allow your currency to devalue, and you suffer unemployment instead - as you just aren't competitive.

For you to run a deficit, I have to finance you; do this repeatedly for a number of years and I control you.
You may believe that if you owe me enough money (bankrupts view), your continuing ongoing solvency is my problem (your banker). But I know that if I simply refuse to roll over part of your debt, interest rates will spike as you crowd-out the market, and I will earn a lot more on my money (as sovereigns can't bankrupt). If those higher interest rates tip you into recession and you stop buying my goods, it's also a good thing for me; as you're a bum I dont want to sell to, and I'm allready making the margin you would have contributed - on the higher interest being paid on my existing  investments in your country. I might even get the opportunity to buy the Trump Tower at cents in the dollar ;D

Jobs are appearing because the massive QE over the last decade has finally turned the economy around.
But much of that decades worth of displaced labour has retired, and as soon as wage competition appears - machines are going to be replaced with more productive versions that require fewer workers, reducing wage competition. The 'why' the folks on the bottom are not benefitting, whereas the folks at the top are.

SD




cubsfan

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #587 on: September 22, 2018, 10:13:10 AM »
Jobs are appearing because of tax cuts, and massive increases in business and consumer confidence.

Obama and Hillary hated big business - and giving them the boot has changed everything in the US.

You are making this way too difficult with all these theories...

cubsfan

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #588 on: September 22, 2018, 10:15:43 AM »
And certainly the tariffs with China are needed. Until they stop stealing intellectual property and get North Korea under control, why
should we give them a break?   Once lean on North Korea and get rid of the nukes, we can "take it easy on them".

LC

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Re: Mr. Trump to Impose Stiff Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
« Reply #589 on: September 22, 2018, 11:33:32 AM »
Jobs are appearing because of tax cuts, and massive increases in business and consumer confidence.

Obama and Hillary hated big business - and giving them the boot has changed everything in the US.

You are making this way too difficult with all these theories...

You are the one making theories, which do not suit the facts.

Unemployment has been steadily decreasing since 2010:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE/

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