Author Topic: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'  (Read 9492 times)

MarkS

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #60 on: February 10, 2019, 12:43:17 PM »
Just some thoughts:

-We're a long way from self driving cars. Decade-plus. Truckers will be fine for the time being.
-On AI in general - it is a real possibility that a lot of traditional jobs may not exist. Combined with a falling cost of human capital and this is not a good trend for the average person.
-Populism is "bad" because the underlying policies only are promoted because they're popular - not because they are reasonable based on their merits.

The technology will be ready before 10 years.  But Congress will certainly need to approve the technology.  So based on their inability to even negotiate a bill to reopen government - other than a CR - it may be more than they can handle. I may have to concur with you.


LC

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #61 on: February 10, 2019, 12:46:03 PM »
Isn't the problem that the self driving technology simply cannot manage other human drivers on the road? In other words, it needs near-100% adoption to actually work?

I'm no expert - just regurgitating criticism that I've read.

But robotics, AI technology - these are all moving forward. This will put continuous pressure on the need for human capital, which is going to depress returns on human capital.

Eventually society will need to deal with this.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 12:48:40 PM by LC »
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SharperDingaan

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #62 on: February 10, 2019, 12:46:14 PM »
A quick rebuttal, then move on.

From the 'risk' perspective (ie: Taleb), the tradesperson is essentially the anti-fragile 'taxi-driver'; the high-paid guy/gal is the fragile dinosour - essentially what we're both seeing. In the uncertain environment the taxi-driver is better off, however taxi-driving is cyclical; we don't know if the current time is 3am on a weeknight, or 1am on a saturday night. 

Fully agreed that AI is disruptive, and likely to displace millions. But no matter what, AI has to cross the digital/physical interface, and to do that, you need tradespeople - lots of them. Sensors break, software/hardware interfaces routinely fail, batteries/electronics typically work less well in hostile environments, etc. It's easy to create a digital record, but if there's no physical attachment to the digitally represented object, you have nothing. Talk to any policeman, or friend in low places.

Mass displacement is not new, routine (ie: mine, factory, industry closures), and almost always includes some kind of temporary subsidy. Usually it's early retirement without penalty. In Canada we've had UBI for a great many years - we just call it something else. When a Canadian retires at age 65, he/she will receive a 'collection' of various state pensions (CPP, GIS, OAS, etc.) - such that they create a minimum 'retirement' income of $X/year.   https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/campaigns/seniors.html?utm_source=google&utm_medium=sem&utm_campaign=seniors2018-2019&utm_content=cpp3

In Canada, a new tradesperson right out of school, has very seldom had it so good.
The old guys are retiring, and co-ops/apprenticeship programs are screaming for candidates. That new tradesperson is cheap, not tied down by family, and free to travel to some hostile places for experience and 'adventure' (ie: welders in Canada's North or East Coast off-shore). And if you sunsequently want to start your own business, and came through one of these programs; you have free access to lots of start-up expertise, accounting/finance infra-structure, and grants/cheap loans to get you off the ground. 

What a trades person can expect to do over their working life-time, has always been changeable.
Exactly as the taxi driver, it's whatever the requirement of the day is, and is charged accordingly. A digital dispatcher may collect calls at 2am, but a tradesperson still has to physically do the task, & at the price requested; no pay, no play. The tradesperson charges what the market will bear (ie: o/g in a boom), and you either pay up - or do the job yourself.

Most folks are not entrpreneurial, and this is no different in the trades as it is anywhere else. The top 20% will thrive, the bottom 20% will bankrupt, and everyone 'in-between' will muddle along. Sure, the 'average' takehome for a trade may be lower than for a profession, and more volatile; but so is the life-style cost. Different 'costs' for different folks, but if you're entrepreurial, the limit is just your own ability.

'Status' changes according to the times.
It used to be that for the 'professional women', the 'professional man' was the ideal partner; today its much more the entrpreneurial tradesperson. Fewer issues, and more appreciative of the 'value' of the partnership. Good on them, and a lesson to the rest of the male population!

Agreed the Small Business/Goliath deck has tilted against small business, but it's only if small business continues to do busness the same way. Goliaths can't turn on a time, and their reliance on LEGACY technology has turned them into dinosours. You might be big-box brick-n-mortar retail, but you're dead-in-the-water against my small-box on-line store delivering by amazon - and warehousing in the family basement. We both do the same thing, but we do it differently, and its a lot easier for me to steal YOUR lunch. If I'm that top entrepreneirial 20%, lets play!

It really means transformative change.
We know it's coming, and that 'same old' will be gone; but are demanding 'guarantees' - where there are none.
And we're having trouble seeing that 'denial' is not an option.

SD


 
 
 
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 12:58:55 PM by SharperDingaan »

Gregmal

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #63 on: February 10, 2019, 12:47:17 PM »
Quote
What we have to be careful of - is the feeling that the "elites" know what is better for "Joe six pack" than Joe does.
What's the evidence for that?

As you rightly said, we live in a free country.

"Joe six pack" has been free to lean whatever skills, invest however he wants, for the history of this country.

And yet - we have seen the "elites" earn more income, control more assets, grow richer and more powerful, and on an increasing trend.

So maybe over the last 50-60 years, "Joe six pack" didn't know better?

When the elites control many of the resources, manipulating the masses is not hard. Again, it's odd because I'm usually on the other side of this argument, making the point that people are free to make their own choices, but there are certain areas that I think have gone too far. It's because of the establishment politicians and the financial elites. Why aren't people protesting the fact that high school seniors in America are typically taking the same math and science courses as 6th and 7th graders in many Asian countries? Why do congressmen need $175K a year(and some FOR LIFE), with gold plated benefits, TO SERVE? How is it that the government gets to dictate in MOST cases, who gets to start businesses, let alone regulate them, and tax them?

I mean look no further for the proof of influence than the moron Cortez brought to the SOTU address. The one who chased down Jeff Flake and for some reason tried to insinuate the some random person making up an allegation against Brett Kavanaugh has anything to do with her, or her children, or future generations of women??? Like how does that even make any sense. Then you find out she's just a misguided activist working for an organization funded by George Soros....

But wait, it gets even better. Because America, more than any other country, has so deeply ingrained the idea that people NEED education, we have a massive student loan crisis! Yet, despite this obsession with academia, hardly anyone is learning anything useful! Then you follow the money, and see where a lot of it comes from and where it goes and it all makes sense. The elites stay where they are, the establishment politicians keep their gigs, and majority remain stupid and handcuffed by the system.

Read the Footnotes

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #64 on: February 10, 2019, 12:49:48 PM »
I think you've lost sight of the fact that we live in a free country where free speech is sacred and protected.
The Nazi's did not have free speech or a bill of rights for the individual.
I have a degree in German. I studied German History in German, in Germany, and took graduate level German History courses in the US. Admittedly, that was a while ago and I wouldn't call myself an expert even at that time, but your comments make me suspect you might be either unaware of or too dismissive of the positive qualities of Germany and German society BEFORE the rise of Hitler. I don't believe Hitler could have come to power without a certain level of freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. Maybe you have a explanation of the rise of National Socialism that I am not aware of?

More importantly, my point was that populism can be dangerous whether it is on the right or left. Nothing more. I do not seek an argument and I will go back to my habit of not reading or responding to the politics section. I have the Politics section set to "ignore", which has made COB&F much more useful to me (thank you Sanjeev!).

Since I have politics set to ignore, I'm not even sure how I noticed the post from Speculatius, but I would not have posted here at all except that I thought the post from Speculatius was unusually concise, insightful, analytical, even-handed and free of bias especially for the politics section. My intent was to similarly to post something that might contribute to dispassionate, meaningful analysis based on the merits of the argument, and to complement Speculatius.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 12:55:01 PM by Read the Footnotes »

Read the Footnotes

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #65 on: February 10, 2019, 01:12:39 PM »

Just think, a guy with Twitter, no money to speak of - can actually get elected in this country

I'm not sure I understand. Are you admitting he's not as rich as he said he was? ;D
Which is it? It can't be both.  ;D

stahleyp

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #66 on: February 10, 2019, 01:13:51 PM »
I agree with read. Populism can be good or bad. But I think most folks look at it as a good thing (well, the optimists anyway). I'd love to have a populist president. I come from a working class family so I can totally understand the appeal. But I don't think Trump is it.
Paul

cubsfan

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #67 on: February 10, 2019, 01:47:26 PM »
Quote
What we have to be careful of - is the feeling that the "elites" know what is better for "Joe six pack" than Joe does.
What's the evidence for that?

As you rightly said, we live in a free country.

"Joe six pack" has been free to lean whatever skills, invest however he wants, for the history of this country.

And yet - we have seen the "elites" earn more income, control more assets, grow richer and more powerful, and on an increasing trend.

So maybe over the last 50-60 years, "Joe six pack" didn't know better?

Great - so you are saying that because you are educated, etc - you know more than Joe Six Pack - you make the perfect elite.

I rest my case.  You know what's best for him - and his opinion doesn't count. Your vote is worth more than his.

cubsfan

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #68 on: February 10, 2019, 01:53:17 PM »

Just think, a guy with Twitter, no money to speak of - can actually get elected in this country

I'm not sure I understand. Are you admitting he's not as rich as he said he was? ;D
Which is it? It can't be both.  ;D

Yes it can be both - he didn't spend it.

I am say that Clinton had a $1B campaign fund and a HUGE ground game and organization behind her.
Trump had nothing - spent very little money and NO organization. He did have Twitter, he did know how to control the media
by being on Fox News every night or Morning Joe whenever he wanted to call in.

What the man did was genius - and he his resources were dwarfed by the Democratic Party - and even the Republicans - Jeb Bush had
a fortune to spend. 

cubsfan

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Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #69 on: February 10, 2019, 02:03:19 PM »
I think you've lost sight of the fact that we live in a free country where free speech is sacred and protected.
The Nazi's did not have free speech or a bill of rights for the individual.
I have a degree in German. I studied German History in German, in Germany, and took graduate level German History courses in the US. Admittedly, that was a while ago and I wouldn't call myself an expert even at that time, but your comments make me suspect you might be either unaware of or too dismissive of the positive qualities of Germany and German society BEFORE the rise of Hitler. I don't believe Hitler could have come to power without a certain level of freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. Maybe you have a explanation of the rise of National Socialism that I am not aware of?

More importantly, my point was that populism can be dangerous whether it is on the right or left. Nothing more. I do not seek an argument and I will go back to my habit of not reading or responding to the politics section. I have the Politics section set to "ignore", which has made COB&F much more useful to me (thank you Sanjeev!).

Since I have politics set to ignore, I'm not even sure how I noticed the post from Speculatius, but I would not have posted here at all except that I thought the post from Speculatius was unusually concise, insightful, analytical, even-handed and free of bias especially for the politics section. My intent was to similarly to post something that might contribute to dispassionate, meaningful analysis based on the merits of the argument, and to complement Speculatius.

Don't take things so personally  - I am not trying to insult you. My last name is German - why do I have something against Germans all of a sudden?
Are you saying I hate Germans because I respond to your comments about the Nazis?

How is the Nazi party going to rise into power today in America?
It's the Democratic Left and University Elites that are trying to SNUFF OUT freedom of Speech - not the Right.
Ben Shapiro and Ann Coulter can't speak on college campuses, etc..

I could not disagree more - the best protection against tyranny is democracy and freedom of speech - populism has nothing to do with it.
A populist can keep crooked politicians and unbridled political power in check.

If you do not like Trump - there are many people that disagree with you.

I just think you are wrong - don't take it so personally. This is about debate.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 04:32:39 PM by cubsfan »