Author Topic: Russia Investigation.  (Read 21577 times)

doughishere

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #40 on: July 14, 2018, 04:35:41 PM »
https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1017907599608631297

DNI Dan Coats warns that Russia is the worst foreign power threatening U.S. with cyberattacks  and that warning lights are "blinking red" as terror threats were before 9/11


no_free_lunch

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #41 on: July 14, 2018, 07:18:53 PM »
Schwab,

The thing is for you to argue that Trump is a russian agent you need to actually provide some evidence that he is acting in russia's benefit.  The way I see it, worst case he is comparable to, say Germany.  However, in reality he is actually going pretty hard against Russia.

The pipeline is not done and the US is now threatening sanctions.  This has real implication on US relations with the EU.  As does his demands they increase their defense.  Why would Russia want Germany and the other EU states to increase their military?

Quote
The U.S. State Department overnight repeated a warning to Western firms involved in the deal for the pipeline from Russia under the Baltic Sea, saying the project could divide Europe and they were at risk of sanctions.

“Threats of U.S. sanctions against European companies invested in Nord Stream 2 encroach on European energy policy,” the chairman of the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations (Ostausschuss), Wolfgang Buechele, told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-gas-nordstream/german-business-group-enraged-by-trump-attacks-on-nord-stream-pipeline-idUSKBN1K224H

There is also his stance on Iran.  I am not sure how it benefits Russia for the Iranian nuclear deal to be thrown out.  That is their ally in the region.

There are still US troops in Syria, why I have no idea.  However, this is under a trump administration and given Syria's link to.. Russia, it is a bit odd.  Unconfirmed reports exist that 200 russian mercenaries will killed by US troops.  The US is alledgedly arming the rebels who are fighting against the Syrian government, how does any of this benefit Russia?

no_free_lunch

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #42 on: July 14, 2018, 07:34:51 PM »
Quote
The United States has rejected an appeal from Britain, France and Germany to grant broad exemptions to European firms doing business in Iran, saying it would press ahead with sanctions intended to exert “unprecedented” economic pressure on the Tehran regime, U.S. and Western officials told NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-refuses-european-requests-exemptions-its-new-sanctions-iran-n891371


Quote
What a difference a year—and a policy reversal—can make. The Trump Administration’s decision to challenge the 2015 Iran nuclear deal now carries a broad geostrategic price. The relationship between Moscow and Tehran—once tactical militarily, coldly calculating diplomatically, and practical economically—has been converted into a growing strategic partnership. Vladimir Putin’s relentless quest to make Russia a superpower again is part of it; Iran’s goal is just to be a player again. Since President Trump took office, in 2017, Moscow and Tehran have shared increasingly common bonds: growing tensions with Washington and a quest to expand spheres of influence in the Middle East.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/russia-and-iran-deepen-ties-to-challenge-trump-and-the-united-states

This is a blatant admission that Trump is working against Putin.  They just can't say it any clearer.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 07:46:58 PM by no_free_lunch »

doc75

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #43 on: July 14, 2018, 09:32:07 PM »
This is a blatant admission that Trump is working against Putin.  They just can't say it any clearer.

Okay, that's just too funny. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/14/us/politics/trump-russia-putin.html

cobafdek

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #44 on: July 14, 2018, 09:47:10 PM »
For example, why should we believe anything that the government says about Guccifer when their presentation about "him" or "it" keeps changing with time?  Would a real hacker be so incompetent as not to cover his tracks?  Would the Russian government employ such incompetent amateurs to do what the Trump-Russia Conspiracy Theorists believe they did?

Russian state-sponsored hacking is not subtle, by all accounts. They could be more subtle if they wanted, but why bother?  This is hacking 101 stuff -- basic spearphishing campaign -- and there's no need to be fancy if you don't care about getting caught.  Have you not been reading about their intrusions into US infrastructure?   They've been caught. Repeatedly.   They don't fear the US.  In fact, apparently they've been fighting and re-entering when they've been caught and removed from various systems.  They are very big fans of implausible deniability, and they have the perfect adversary -- one that is always happy to entertain a deep-state conspiracy theory.

You could ask similar questions of Russia about the poisonings in Britain.  Or doping at the olympics.  Or missiles or soldiers in Ukraine.  You really have to like conspiracy theories to believe that all of these events are western fabrications, but that's Russia's position.  (Well I guess Putin did admit to the soldiers in Ukraine eventually.)

As for getting more evidence:  It's quite possible that they will not divulge all evidence because it would divulge too much info regarding their technical capabilities. I have no idea to what degree this is true in this case, but certainly a consideration.

We all probably do more reading than the average citizen, but are we more capable of knowing what's true or not?  When American or British or Russian spy agencies release information to the public, is it intelligence?  Or is it propaganda?  Intelligence and propaganda can look exactly the same. 

When the spy agencies of governments release press briefings to non-objective news media, I as a layman citizen have no reliable criteria for distinguishing intelligence from propaganda. 

How do you decide what to believe?  And how reliable are those criteria?  When it comes to clandestine political activities and agencies, we're all fooling ourselves if we think we can tell the difference.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #45 on: July 15, 2018, 03:41:44 AM »
For example, why should we believe anything that the government says about Guccifer when their presentation about "him" or "it" keeps changing with time?  Would a real hacker be so incompetent as not to cover his tracks?  Would the Russian government employ such incompetent amateurs to do what the Trump-Russia Conspiracy Theorists believe they did?

Russian state-sponsored hacking is not subtle, by all accounts. They could be more subtle if they wanted, but why bother?  This is hacking 101 stuff -- basic spearphishing campaign -- and there's no need to be fancy if you don't care about getting caught.  Have you not been reading about their intrusions into US infrastructure?   They've been caught. Repeatedly.   They don't fear the US.  In fact, apparently they've been fighting and re-entering when they've been caught and removed from various systems.  They are very big fans of implausible deniability, and they have the perfect adversary -- one that is always happy to entertain a deep-state conspiracy theory.

You could ask similar questions of Russia about the poisonings in Britain.  Or doping at the olympics.  Or missiles or soldiers in Ukraine.  You really have to like conspiracy theories to believe that all of these events are western fabrications, but that's Russia's position.  (Well I guess Putin did admit to the soldiers in Ukraine eventually.)

As for getting more evidence:  It's quite possible that they will not divulge all evidence because it would divulge too much info regarding their technical capabilities. I have no idea to what degree this is true in this case, but certainly a consideration.

We all probably do more reading than the average citizen, but are we more capable of knowing what's true or not? When American or British or Russian spy agencies release information to the public, is it intelligence?  Or is it propaganda?  Intelligence and propaganda can look exactly the same. 

When the spy agencies of governments release press briefings to non-objective news media, I as a layman citizen have no reliable criteria for distinguishing intelligence from propaganda. 

How do you decide what to believe?  And how reliable are those criteria?  When it comes to clandestine political activities and agencies, we're all fooling ourselves if we think we can tell the difference.

As an individual citizen, trying to make sense out of all this.
I would say that the "evidence" (data) and the level of mental sophistication (criteria and analytical grid) are key elements to consider.
Individually though, we tend to self rank highly on our own abilities.
Also, we seem to be particularly poor at evaluating our own internal biases (and "intelligence" does not help here).

https://www.globalcognition.org/intelligence-and-cognitive-bias/
http://keithstanovich.com/Site/Research_on_Reasoning_files/Stanovich_CDPS_2013.pdf

Wondering about the reasons for the prominence of political discussions, I will end this post with a quote from Mr. Buffett:

“What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.”

Integrating discomforting evidence is so hard but probably often worth it.

Viking

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #46 on: July 15, 2018, 05:49:08 AM »
Cigarbutt, great comment: “Integrating discomforting evidence is so hard but probably often worth it.“
 
With Trump it is very easy to focus on the man and the terrible things he says. 18 months later I find is interesting that on many important issues there is now a more robust debate:
1.) free trade: are agreements up to date (reflecting the realities of 2018)? Are there losers?
2.) immigration: what are the realities of 2018 (50 million refugees out there)? How many people can a country reasonably accept each year?
3.) women’s rights / me too movement: a spark has been lit
4.) Russia: evil empire or misunderstood

In the pre-Trump world it was not politically correct to be against free trade (in pretty much any way). Many issues were debated in a very narrow way. On some issues the pendulum is now swinging the other way. My hope is in future years the pendulum will end up in a better place on the key issues (than we were before Trump was elected). That could end up being his greatest legacy :-)

John Hjorth

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #47 on: July 15, 2018, 06:06:57 AM »
I am still trying to understand a lot of things going on right now. I appreciate people taking the time to post on topics that are important to them. Do I read every topic? Nope. Only those that are of interest to me. Do I filter what I read? Of course. So much to learn. So please keep the posts and source material coming (from all perspectives) :-)

One question I am trying to answer is why Trump and his staff are coming after allies (Germany, Canada etc) so hard. And at the same time he appears very pro Russia. I still have no idea why this is the case. Germany is not perfect (or Canada). But to look at Russia more favourable than Germany makes no sense to me based on the facts as I understand them. I still remember the meeting Trump had with Russia shortly after he was elected; it was a complete shocker (it looked to me like a love in). Pretty much every encounter he has had with Germany has been the opposite (quite aggressive and confrontational). Like I said, there are things I clearly do not understand so I need to keep reading and learning... my past experience is at some point the picture will start to finally make some sense :-)

One more for you here, Viking, [ : - ) ]

Bloomberg Opinion - Editorial Board - Michael R. Bloomberg [July 15th 2018]: America's Values Must Guide White House Diplomacy.

Outline article link.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Spekulatius

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #48 on: July 15, 2018, 06:21:42 AM »
I am not a big fan of thr russian EU gas pipeline, but I think it is important to look at this in a context.

1) Russian EU energy deals regarding NG actually predate the fall of the iron curtain
2) Some of this pipeline capacity is replacing capacity of an aged pipeline though the Ukraine. of course there is the aspect, that the Ukraine cannot shut off NG supplies to the EU any more.

The fact is as SD stated, that russian has the NG and Europe needs it. The alnterntive to laying pipes would be to go to LNG, but those supply prices tend to be volatile as well, there are problem to get the degasification facilities build. My guess is that Europe needs both.

I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 07:10:42 AM by Spekulatius »
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

no_free_lunch

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #49 on: July 15, 2018, 06:31:00 AM »
I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.

Go and read this sentence.  Read it several times.  The entire thing is based on your assumption that he cozies up to Putin.

Maybe, must maybe, the reason is Trump is an American pushing an American agenda.