Author Topic: Russia Investigation.  (Read 63905 times)

John Hjorth

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #40 on: July 15, 2018, 06:06:57 AM »
I am still trying to understand a lot of things going on right now. I appreciate people taking the time to post on topics that are important to them. Do I read every topic? Nope. Only those that are of interest to me. Do I filter what I read? Of course. So much to learn. So please keep the posts and source material coming (from all perspectives) :-)

One question I am trying to answer is why Trump and his staff are coming after allies (Germany, Canada etc) so hard. And at the same time he appears very pro Russia. I still have no idea why this is the case. Germany is not perfect (or Canada). But to look at Russia more favourable than Germany makes no sense to me based on the facts as I understand them. I still remember the meeting Trump had with Russia shortly after he was elected; it was a complete shocker (it looked to me like a love in). Pretty much every encounter he has had with Germany has been the opposite (quite aggressive and confrontational). Like I said, there are things I clearly do not understand so I need to keep reading and learning... my past experience is at some point the picture will start to finally make some sense :-)

One more for you here, Viking, [ : - ) ]

Bloomberg Opinion - Editorial Board - Michael R. Bloomberg [July 15th 2018]: America's Values Must Guide White House Diplomacy.

Outline article link.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai


Spekulatius

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #41 on: July 15, 2018, 06:21:42 AM »
I am not a big fan of thr russian EU gas pipeline, but I think it is important to look at this in a context.

1) Russian EU energy deals regarding NG actually predate the fall of the iron curtain
2) Some of this pipeline capacity is replacing capacity of an aged pipeline though the Ukraine. of course there is the aspect, that the Ukraine cannot shut off NG supplies to the EU any more.

The fact is as SD stated, that russian has the NG and Europe needs it. The alnterntive to laying pipes would be to go to LNG, but those supply prices tend to be volatile as well, there are problem to get the degasification facilities build. My guess is that Europe needs both.

I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 07:10:42 AM by Spekulatius »
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no_free_lunch

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #42 on: July 15, 2018, 06:31:00 AM »
I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.

Go and read this sentence.  Read it several times.  The entire thing is based on your assumption that he cozies up to Putin.

Maybe, must maybe, the reason is Trump is an American pushing an American agenda.

Schwab711

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #43 on: July 15, 2018, 06:33:01 AM »
Schwab,

The thing is for you to argue that Trump is a russian agent you need to actually provide some evidence that he is acting in russia's benefit.

1. March to June 2016: Trump campaign reaches out and is approached about high level talks with RU govt/Putin

2. Trump Tower meeting set up June 7th for the 9th. Trump Jr expected to receive dirt from the RU govt.

3. DCLeaks released on June 8

4. June 9 Trump Tower meeting

5. June 15, the top 2 GOP leaders of the House of Reps claim Putin pays Trump and Paul Ryan says to keep it in the family/no leaks

I obviously don't have a confession from Trump or I'd be at the FBI. The evidence is voluminous. Pleaseder doing a little more research I guess. 1 year ago none of this was known. I can understand folks waiting for more evidence but don't pretend that none has been released.

I think your repetition of Trump/Germany/Russia/pipeline has to do with recency, not importance. The pipeline is a sideshow. Trump lied about the facts of the situation. You are ignoring the actual facts, that don't make Trump look as good. Same old story, same old tune.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 06:55:14 AM by Schwab711 »

Schwab711

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #44 on: July 15, 2018, 06:51:26 AM »
I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.

Go and read this sentence.  Read it several times.  The entire thing is based on your assumption that he cozies up to Putin.

Maybe, must maybe, the reason is Trump is an American pushing an American agenda.

Trump's DOJ just indicted Russian spies and he continues to say the DOJ is biased. You should put some effort in to learning the supporting evidence behind the theory of Trump/Russia. Simple Google searches and a couple hours of reading. No one here is going to write the 10,000 words necessary to describe the last 2+ years and most wouldn't read it anyway. You should know the opposing argument if 50% of the country is this upset (like all the articles discussing Trump voters and why).

Most who feel strongly about Trump/RU are waiting for an investigation, not calling for impeachment, allowing him to appoint officials (including LT officials) despite being under investigation (probably worse than 1+ year from lame duck), and so on.

John Hjorth

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #45 on: July 15, 2018, 07:22:18 AM »
I am not a big fan of thr russian EU gas pipeline, but I think it is important to look at this in a context.

1) Russian EU energy deals regarding NG actually predate the fall of the iron curtain
2) Some of this pipeline capacity is replacing capacity of an aged pipeline though thr Ukraine. of course there is the aspect, that the Ukraine cannot shoppt off NG supplies to the EU any more.

The fact is as SD stated, that russian has the NG and Europe needs it. The alnterntive to laying pipes would be to go to LNG, but those supply prices tend to be volatile as well, there are problem to get the degasification facilities build. My guess is that Europe needs both.

I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.

To supplement the post by Spekulatius:

European Commision [May 24th 2018]: Statement by Commissioner Vestager on Commission decision imposing binding obligations on Gazprom to enable free flow of gas at competitive prices.

Wikipedia: Russia–Ukraine gas disputes.

Ref. second link: A customer of Gazprom did not pay. An operational decision was made to cut supply. It works great in many situations. Then there goes political clutter into it here.

So North Stream 2 is just Gazprom's act to diversify and corner Ukraine to get the gas to Europe, to ensure BOTH stable delivery AND payment. Business decision.

- - - o 0 o - - -

The whole thing appears to bother Mr. Trump in his weekend off in Scotland.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 07:51:58 AM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

SharperDingaan

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #46 on: July 15, 2018, 07:59:58 AM »
There's a difference between 'highly likely' and 'proof'. To impeach requires 'proof', so the investigation drags on.
The reality of course is that the 'stale-mate' is not stable, and neither are the political keys to power. One can stall, but utimately there will be a winner and a loser, and the fall-out that comes with it.

The US electorate voted for change, and they clearly got it.
That sweaty armpit, dysfunctional, aromatic, and blunt protest discussion is not a bad thing - but it's reaching the end of its course. Eventually the discussion has to give way to decision, if only because you can't fight the whole school-yard for any length of time. It simply sucks up too much energy.

NAFTA, WTO, NATO, UN, aid etc. are all 'last century' agreements/organizations well past their 'best before' dates. The evidence is that they have worked (no World Wars since 1942), but they need material overhauls. Cutting the money off to force blunt discussion and change - is not a bad thing, no matter how petulent the recipients are.

The skill-set to force change, is not the same one that implements it; the change-agent is a liability.
Ordinarily the change-agent just gets 'changed-out', but the investigation has made it much more difficult. Gracefull 'exits' are very limited, but there will be a solution.

Win the upcoming mid-terms and he can continue to play.
Fail, and Caesar needs to keep a sharp look-out for the knives.

SD



Spekulatius

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #47 on: July 15, 2018, 08:23:10 AM »
I don’t know why Trump is concerned about Europe being dependent on Russia, when he cozies up with Putin that well. This is just another incidence of Trump trolling around with no inherent logical framework.

Go and read this sentence.  Read it several times.  The entire thing is based on your assumption that he cozies up to Putin.

Maybe, must maybe, the reason is Trump is an American pushing an American agenda.

He may or may not be. However perception is important here. Trump has lost his creditability.  Nobody want to negotiate with him any more.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

whiterose

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #48 on: July 15, 2018, 10:37:08 AM »
A good recap:
"Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart — Or His Handler?
A plausible theory of mind-boggling collusion."

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html

doc75

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Re: Russia Investigation.
« Reply #49 on: July 15, 2018, 11:08:39 AM »
We all probably do more reading than the average citizen, but are we more capable of knowing what's true or not?  When American or British or Russian spy agencies release information to the public, is it intelligence?  Or is it propaganda?  Intelligence and propaganda can look exactly the same. 

When the spy agencies of governments release press briefings to non-objective news media, I as a layman citizen have no reliable criteria for distinguishing intelligence from propaganda. 

How do you decide what to believe?  And how reliable are those criteria?  When it comes to clandestine political activities and agencies, we're all fooling ourselves if we think we can tell the difference.

Certainly we are all subjected to propaganda.  It's important to be sceptical of what you read, consider the source carefully, look for both sides, etc.  I don't take statements from the US  spy agencies at 100% face value.   But in the absence of 100% certainty, you have to weigh the relative probabilities of truth, and I think it's foolish to play the part of the tobacco company -- claiming that strong evidence isn't "proof" so therefore can be dismissed with a shrug.

You questioned the credibility of some detailed indictments. Your criticism was based  at least partly on an argument about the hacking being amateurish. I'm pointing out that this is very flimsy logic.  The Russians (and others) know that cyber attacks / intrusions are very difficult to pin down.  Even if security experts can say with a very high degree of certainty that Country X is to blame, their technical reasoning is beyond the understanding (and possibly security clearance) of the lay public, and there is always at least some element of doubt.  I just think you are tripping over yourself to be sceptical in the face of pretty damning evidence.

FWIW:   It is not just US intelligence agencies ringing alarm bells about Russian hacking. Private security companies like Symantec and CrowdStrike have been tracking this for a long time and have reported on dramatic increases in infrastructure hacks over the past year or so.  Of course those security firms have ties to the US intelligence apparatus, so you can then go and question their credibility.  For that matter you can question everything you come across via Google, because they too have ties to the security establishment.  But you have to work pretty hard to build up a grand conspiracy, whereas the simple explanation is that Russia feels no threat from the US in the cyber arena and have been getting more aggressive.

Here's a site I just found today. I'm not ready to vouch for its integrity, but it has some interesting commentary on the Trump/Putin meeting and the reaction it is receiving in Russia:

http://www.russialies.com/