Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => Politics => Topic started by: Cardboard on August 02, 2019, 08:44:57 AM

Title: The psycopath
Post by: Cardboard on August 02, 2019, 08:44:57 AM
Will likely add tarrifs on European cars and French wine at 1:45 PM ET today.

Well, maybe I should not call him a psycopath. Probably more a simple imbecile?

Are you raising cash to take advantage of bargains? Are they going to be bargains at all if the imbecile keeps ruining the global economy with tarrifs?

Cardboard
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: MrB on August 02, 2019, 09:31:40 AM
Cardboard why do you say that? According to this, http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/january/tradoc_152998.1%20Trade%20in%20goods%20and%20customs%20tariffs.pdf

EU duty on imports of cars from the US is 10%
US duty on imports from the EU is only 2.5%

I'm not an expert in the field, but on face value I would have agreed if EU duties were 0 or substantially less than what the US charged. I would think implicit in your statement is that one should have free trade (no tariffs), but if I don't want to trade freely with you then I probably should not be upset if you match the tariffs I'm charging you, no? What am I missing?
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Cardboard on August 02, 2019, 09:57:21 AM
Because there should have been better ways to resolve these issues. So far all this does is slowing the global economy, creating issues for businesses on sourcing, raising costs for U.S. consumers and businesses among others. 

For a so called great negotiator I must say that Trump has failed miserably with his tarrifs. This was the very wrong way to go about this IMO and all we are seeing is downside.

Cardboard
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Spekulatius on August 02, 2019, 10:11:48 AM
US duties on trucks are 25%, thatís where all the money is made. There is almost no native US  ďcarĒ industry any more, all the US manufacturers make a living selling trucks. Europe offered already to lower all tariffs of US cars to zero, but Trump wouldnít take it.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: MrB on August 02, 2019, 10:13:01 AM
Because there should have been better ways to resolve these issues. So far all this does is slowing the global economy, creating issues for businesses on sourcing, raising costs for U.S. consumers and businesses among others. 

For a so called great negotiator I must say that Trump has failed miserably with his tarrifs. This was the very wrong way to go about this IMO and all we are seeing is downside.

Cardboard

I hear you, but as a practical matter what do you do? In my mind it is as simple as matching tariffs or negotiate something, which essentially results in raising costs/tariffs indirectly. If I charge you 10% and you charge me 2.5% and I refuse to negotiate, what options do you have? As a first step it probably makes sense for you to raise your tariffs and at least force me to negotiate.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: MrB on August 02, 2019, 10:14:52 AM
US duties on trucks are 25%, thatís where all the money is made. There is almost no native US  ďcarĒ industry any more, all the US manufacturers make a living selling trucks. Europe offered already to lower all tariffs of US cars to zero, but Trump wouldnít take it.

Spekulatius is this a result of recent negotiations?
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: MrB on August 02, 2019, 10:21:07 AM
US duties on trucks are 25%, thatís where all the money is made. There is almost no native US  ďcarĒ industry any more, all the US manufacturers make a living selling trucks. Europe offered already to lower all tariffs of US cars to zero, but Trump wouldnít take it.

Just adding some numbers to what youíre saying,


http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2019/february/tradoc_157704.pdf
The EU-US automotive trade represents more than one-sixth of all trade in industrial goods. Some EU manufacturers have located in particular the production of pick-up trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) in the US of which a large share is then exported to the EU or to China. The EU imported passenger cars and trucks worth almost EUR 7 billion from the US while the US imports of EU cars and trucks reached EUR 40 billion in 2017. This accounted for 14% and 29% of all EU passenger car imports and exports respectively. US exports of passenger cars to the EU face a tariff of 10% and EU exports to the US face tariffs of 2.5%. But exports of pick-ups and trucks popular in the US face a 25% import tariff. US producers face 10% to 22% in the other direction, depending on engine size. Average tariffs on core motor vehicle parts stand at 1.7% in the US to 4% in the EU.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: cwericb on August 03, 2019, 10:06:43 AM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Gregmal on August 03, 2019, 12:45:52 PM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?

Many of these people happily get fleeced buying(scratch that now, leasing) new iPhones every 18 months, buying $300 Jordans, and running balances on 25% interest credit cards...Many of them were the folks taking out 0-3% down mortgages on homes 15x their annual income back when they could do that to. It'll be a while til the chickens come home to roost here.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: cwericb on August 03, 2019, 03:39:26 PM
Yes, you are right. But that's a little scary.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Castanza on August 03, 2019, 06:12:37 PM
Generally Tariffs are bad for economies. However I understand the utility of them in these situations. We haven't had a free market system and true free trade for a loooonggg time.

But here is the thing that gets me. The majority of the people complaining these tariffs are the same ones trying to vote people in office who want free healthcare, free college tuition, free marriage counseling, government paid moving expenses, reparations, free free free. So to complain about paying some increased prices for goods (which I haven't personally seen yet) but yet want to "tax em to Hell!" It's unbelievably hypocritical.

I'd much rather pay some increased costs due to tariffs for a temporary time frame IF it helps establish more free and fair global trade policies than pay increased taxes that inevitably wont be enough for the rest of my life.

Just my two cents.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Cardboard on August 04, 2019, 01:48:38 PM
Impeach the moron. Bring somebody with a brain such as Mike Pence:

Trump reportedly overruled advisors in decision to slap tariffs on remaining Chinese imports
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/04/trump-reportedly-overruled-advisors-in-decision-to-slap-tariffs-on-remaining-chinese-imports.html
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: meiroy on August 04, 2019, 10:11:42 PM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?

Trump did not impose tariffs. The GOP did.

The NRA does not have elected officials. The GOP does.

It is foolish to blame recent massacres on the NRA or lobbyists.  It's the GOP.  These are GOP enabled massacres, just like these are GOP enabled tariffs. 

Call it for what it is.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Castanza on August 05, 2019, 05:59:40 AM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?

Trump did not impose tariffs. The GOP did.

The NRA does not have elected officials. The GOP does.

It is foolish to blame recent massacres on the NRA or lobbyists.  It's the GOP.  These are GOP enabled massacres, just like these are GOP enabled tariffs. 

Call it for what it is.
They were both Democrats just saying (shootings have been generally evenly distributed with parties). And speaking specifically about Dayton it is unclear the intentions. So it's quite foolish to speculate. What we know (according to Washington Post) is there are no obvious tie to extremist groups. He also arrived with his sister and her boyfriend who were also victims (can't wrap my head around this).

I'm not an NRA member and I think they do utilize some "scare tactics" to gain members. But if you actually look at the cash they put up for lobbying they are a drop in the bucket compared to most other groups (big pharma).

How about we start discussing the real issue. Every single shooter has been on anti-depressants. Mass shootings have increased in correlation with gun laws. Stop putting band-aids on the issue and lets address the root. Even Neil Degrasse Tyson tweeted some common sense on the issue.

As someone who recently lived in Dayton and frequented that strip quite often it puts it in perspective. I had a friend who was down there that night (just down the street at the Dublin Pub) on a bachelor party (which I couldn't make). But this doesn't change my opinion on the cause of the issue. It's a mental health issue, a broken home issue. This is what happens when society begins to adopt a nihilistic view on life. These people sit in their dark corners of the internet and feed off each other.

__________________________________________

Back to the topic. What is a solution that doesn't involve tariffs to establish a more free trade global economy? I keep hearing consumers are getting fleeced but have prices actually gone up? The data doesn't seem to show any significant changed. Slight spike in March, but nothing spectacular.

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: LC on August 05, 2019, 06:31:48 AM
Ah right, now "It's A Mental Health Issue"
Notice how that is never said about the brown guys...
https://i.redd.it/8x9aov7bbme31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/kp76osmmbme31.jpg

Of course, none of this could be inspired by Big Orange himself:
https://i.redd.it/vkl2ecz2ece31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/7v7l02i7yie31.jpg

And don't forget, rule #2 of tyranny is never let a good tragedy go to waste:
https://i.redd.it/v35583xcime31.png

But wait, we need to protect our gun rights!
https://i.redd.it/a45l7tzb8je31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/6q5p24uldme31.jpg

Finally, let's get back to the "mental health issue"
https://i.redd.it/4pb34tj38me31.jpg

And I didn't have a humorous illustration, but:
GOP: "It's a mental health issue!"
Everyone else: "Ok then can we get some healthcare reform?"
GOP: "Nope that's un-American!!"
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: LC on August 05, 2019, 06:40:35 AM
But hey maybe I was a little too serious with that last post. They're just brown people, right? Have a laugh about it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9AXGPo1vvM
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: meiroy on August 05, 2019, 06:51:46 AM
Ah right, now "It's A Mental Health Issue"
Notice how that is never said about the brown guys...
https://i.redd.it/8x9aov7bbme31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/kp76osmmbme31.jpg

Of course, none of this could be inspired by Big Orange himself:
https://i.redd.it/vkl2ecz2ece31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/7v7l02i7yie31.jpg

And don't forget, rule #2 of tyranny is never let a good tragedy go to waste:
https://i.redd.it/v35583xcime31.png

But wait, we need to protect our gun rights!
https://i.redd.it/a45l7tzb8je31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/6q5p24uldme31.jpg

Finally, let's get back to the "mental health issue"
https://i.redd.it/4pb34tj38me31.jpg

And I didn't have a humorous illustration, but:
GOP: "It's a mental health issue!"
Everyone else: "Ok then can we get some healthcare reform?"
GOP: "Nope that's un-American!!"

And like there's no mental issue in other countries or the only place on earth where people play video games is in America.

The only difference with other countries: guns. End of discussion.

And why are guns allowed like this these days? Corruption of the system. Money. The rest is nonsense arguments.

Same with health care.

Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Castanza on August 05, 2019, 07:46:33 AM
Ah right, now "It's A Mental Health Issue"
Notice how that is never said about the brown guys...
https://i.redd.it/8x9aov7bbme31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/kp76osmmbme31.jpg

Of course, none of this could be inspired by Big Orange himself:
https://i.redd.it/vkl2ecz2ece31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/7v7l02i7yie31.jpg

And don't forget, rule #2 of tyranny is never let a good tragedy go to waste:
https://i.redd.it/v35583xcime31.png

But wait, we need to protect our gun rights!
https://i.redd.it/a45l7tzb8je31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/6q5p24uldme31.jpg

Finally, let's get back to the "mental health issue"
https://i.redd.it/4pb34tj38me31.jpg

And I didn't have a humorous illustration, but:
GOP: "It's a mental health issue!"
Everyone else: "Ok then can we get some healthcare reform?"
GOP: "Nope that's un-American!!"

Memes are a great source of factual information.

So you think brown people are unfairly targeted by police. Yet you want to take guns from normal people (including minorities) and give the police a monopoly on violence? Makes sense...Even Ice T knows what the 2nd Amendment is for.

Ah right, now "It's A Mental Health Issue"
Notice how that is never said about the brown guys...
https://i.redd.it/8x9aov7bbme31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/kp76osmmbme31.jpg

Of course, none of this could be inspired by Big Orange himself:
https://i.redd.it/vkl2ecz2ece31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/7v7l02i7yie31.jpg

And don't forget, rule #2 of tyranny is never let a good tragedy go to waste:
https://i.redd.it/v35583xcime31.png

But wait, we need to protect our gun rights!
https://i.redd.it/a45l7tzb8je31.jpg
https://i.redd.it/6q5p24uldme31.jpg

Finally, let's get back to the "mental health issue"
https://i.redd.it/4pb34tj38me31.jpg

And I didn't have a humorous illustration, but:
GOP: "It's a mental health issue!"
Everyone else: "Ok then can we get some healthcare reform?"
GOP: "Nope that's un-American!!"

And like there's no mental issue in other countries or the only place on earth where people play video games is in America.

The only difference with other countries: guns. End of discussion.

And why are guns allowed like this these days? Corruption of the system. Money. The rest is nonsense arguments.

Same with health care.

Yes, ignore all other variables and make the argument about an inanimate object. How about quit making excuses for poor parenting and societies reliance on pharmaceuticals. What has changed since the 60's? It isn't guns. "End of Discussion."

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2018/02/27/of_27_deadliest_mass_shooters_26_of_them_were_fatherless_435596.html
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: LC on August 05, 2019, 08:13:26 AM
Oh I'm just listing a variety of logical inconsistencies which are conveniently ignored whenever a white guy goes on a shooting spree and other white guys rush to defend their own mental constructs.

Feel free to ponder (or ignore) these inequalities at your own convenience.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: LC on August 05, 2019, 08:16:53 AM
Here's another one comparing population-adjusted firearm deaths among high income countries (2010)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate#/media/File:2010_homicide_suicide_rates_high-income_countries.png
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Castanza on August 05, 2019, 09:05:09 AM
Oh I'm just listing a variety of logical inconsistencies which are conveniently ignored whenever a white guy goes on a shooting spree and other white guys rush to defend their own mental constructs.

Feel free to ponder (or ignore) these inequalities at your own convenience.
I never brought up race...you did. But this just shows how you and every other liberal always wants to make it about race. You are ignoring many things as well.

Ban guns and then what? The shootings wont stop it's a guarantee. What happens when banning guns doesn't work? Will banning guns also stop the 250 suicides that happen a day?
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: LC on August 05, 2019, 11:59:34 AM
Oh C'mon I covered about 5 topics in one post...but like I said, ignore at  your convenience  ;D

But hey, it's a mental illness problem, right? Well before you commit to that position, don't let this 2017 bit of news get in the way:

Quote
Trump Signs Bill Revoking Obama-Era Gun Checks for People With Mental Illnesses

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-signs-bill-revoking-obama-era-gun-checks-people-mental-n727221

Had the rule fully taken effect, the Obama administration predicted it would have added about 75,000 names to that database.

President Barack Obama recommended the now-nullified regulation in a 2013 memo following the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, which left 20 first graders and six others dead. The measure sought to block some people with severe mental health problems from buying guns.

Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Parsad on August 05, 2019, 12:26:13 PM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?

Trump did not impose tariffs. The GOP did.

The NRA does not have elected officials. The GOP does.

It is foolish to blame recent massacres on the NRA or lobbyists.  It's the GOP.  These are GOP enabled massacres, just like these are GOP enabled tariffs. 

Call it for what it is.
They were both Democrats just saying (shootings have been generally evenly distributed with parties). And speaking specifically about Dayton it is unclear the intentions. So it's quite foolish to speculate. What we know (according to Washington Post) is there are no obvious tie to extremist groups. He also arrived with his sister and her boyfriend who were also victims (can't wrap my head around this).

I'm not an NRA member and I think they do utilize some "scare tactics" to gain members. But if you actually look at the cash they put up for lobbying they are a drop in the bucket compared to most other groups (big pharma).

How about we start discussing the real issue. Every single shooter has been on anti-depressants. Mass shootings have increased in correlation with gun laws. Stop putting band-aids on the issue and lets address the root. Even Neil Degrasse Tyson tweeted some common sense on the issue.

As someone who recently lived in Dayton and frequented that strip quite often it puts it in perspective. I had a friend who was down there that night (just down the street at the Dublin Pub) on a bachelor party (which I couldn't make). But this doesn't change my opinion on the cause of the issue. It's a mental health issue, a broken home issue. This is what happens when society begins to adopt a nihilistic view on life. These people sit in their dark corners of the internet and feed off each other.

__________________________________________

Back to the topic. What is a solution that doesn't involve tariffs to establish a more free trade global economy? I keep hearing consumers are getting fleeced but have prices actually gone up? The data doesn't seem to show any significant changed. Slight spike in March, but nothing spectacular.

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

Where did you get the information that they were both Democrats?  Certainly not liberal if they had a racist/immigrant manifesto or target.  Cheers!

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-03/what-we-know-about-patrick-crusius-el-paso-rampage
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Castanza on August 05, 2019, 12:50:54 PM
Oh C'mon I covered about 5 topics in one post...but like I said, ignore at  your convenience  ;D

But hey, it's a mental illness problem, right? Well before you commit to that position, don't let this 2017 bit of news get in the way:

Quote
Trump Signs Bill Revoking Obama-Era Gun Checks for People With Mental Illnesses

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-signs-bill-revoking-obama-era-gun-checks-people-mental-n727221

Had the rule fully taken effect, the Obama administration predicted it would have added about 75,000 names to that database.

President Barack Obama recommended the now-nullified regulation in a 2013 memo following the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, which left 20 first graders and six others dead. The measure sought to block some people with severe mental health problems from buying guns.

Did you see me applauding Trump? Do I ever defend Trump? Hardly ever. I'm not opposed to checks for mental illness etc. But the Obama bill was haphazardly thrown together. It was an opinion piece made into a law. If you want to do it, it needs to be done deliberately with scientific proof.
The law currently:

Under the NICS Improvement Amendments Act of 2007, a person who has been adjudicated as a mental defective or committed to a mental institution in a State proceeding is not prohibited by the adjudication or commitment if ATF E-Form 4473 (5300.9) Revised October 2016 the person has been granted relief by the adjudicating/committing State pursuant to a qualifying mental health relief from disabilities program. Also, a person who has been adjudicated as a mental defective or committed to a mental institution by a department or agency of Federal Government is not prohibited by the adjudication or commitment if either: (a) the person's adjudication or commitment was set-aside or expunged by the adjudicating/committing agency; (b) the person has been fully released or discharged from all mandatory treatment, supervision, or monitoring by the agency; (c) the person was found by the agency to no longer suffer from the mental health condition that served as the basis of the initial adjudication/ commitment; or (d) the adjudication or commitment, respectively, is based solely on a medical finding of disability, without an opportunity for a hearing by a court, board, commission, or other lawful authority, and the person has not been adjudicated as a mental defective consistent with section 922(g)(4) of title 18, United States Code; (e) the person was granted relief from the adjudicating/ committing agency pursuant to a qualified mental health relief from disabilities program. Persons who fall within one of the above exceptions should answer "no" to question 11.f. This exception to an adjudication or commitment by a Federal department or agency does not apply to any person who was adjudicated to be not guilty by reason of insanity, or based on lack of mental responsibility, or found incompetent to stand trial, in any criminal case or under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

If you were committed by a court or other lawful agency/institution you are banned from owning/purchasing a gun. What the Trump agency did was take away the ability for a parent or individual from claiming you are mentally ill to prevent you from purchasing a gun. As I said before....if you want to claim someone is mentally ill then you need to have the approval of a doctor or other lawful institution. As a parent you already can limit your child until they are 18 and 21 simply by being a parent. So by the time they turn 18 if a child who is clearly mentally unstable hasn't been taken to a lawful institution for evaluation then the guardians of that child have failed.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/dayton-ohio-shooting-suspect-hit-list

Government did a great job! Had authorities handled the situation properly he would have been unable to purchase a firearm due to form 4473 (see above)

Another good read:

https://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-laws/policy-areas/who-can-have-a-gun/categories-of-prohibited-people/

As I've said before...banning guns isn't a solution. It's an emotional feel good moment that wont solve anything. The real issue needs to be addressed.

Also 26 out of the last 27 mass shooters have come from broken homes. But yeah, culture and society have nothing to do with it either.

_________________________________________________

Even after all this is said it's not clear (unless you cherry pick) that guns availability always correlate to murders or violent crimes.

in 1954 London (which had zero gun laws) had 12 armed robberies

fast forward to today and...

London (with strict gun laws) had over 1400 armed robberies. 
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Castanza on August 05, 2019, 12:54:41 PM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?

Trump did not impose tariffs. The GOP did.

The NRA does not have elected officials. The GOP does.

It is foolish to blame recent massacres on the NRA or lobbyists.  It's the GOP.  These are GOP enabled massacres, just like these are GOP enabled tariffs. 

Call it for what it is.
They were both Democrats just saying (shootings have been generally evenly distributed with parties). And speaking specifically about Dayton it is unclear the intentions. So it's quite foolish to speculate. What we know (according to Washington Post) is there are no obvious tie to extremist groups. He also arrived with his sister and her boyfriend who were also victims (can't wrap my head around this).

I'm not an NRA member and I think they do utilize some "scare tactics" to gain members. But if you actually look at the cash they put up for lobbying they are a drop in the bucket compared to most other groups (big pharma).

How about we start discussing the real issue. Every single shooter has been on anti-depressants. Mass shootings have increased in correlation with gun laws. Stop putting band-aids on the issue and lets address the root. Even Neil Degrasse Tyson tweeted some common sense on the issue.

As someone who recently lived in Dayton and frequented that strip quite often it puts it in perspective. I had a friend who was down there that night (just down the street at the Dublin Pub) on a bachelor party (which I couldn't make). But this doesn't change my opinion on the cause of the issue. It's a mental health issue, a broken home issue. This is what happens when society begins to adopt a nihilistic view on life. These people sit in their dark corners of the internet and feed off each other.

__________________________________________

Back to the topic. What is a solution that doesn't involve tariffs to establish a more free trade global economy? I keep hearing consumers are getting fleeced but have prices actually gone up? The data doesn't seem to show any significant changed. Slight spike in March, but nothing spectacular.

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

Where did you get the information that they were both Democrats?  Certainly not liberal if they had a racist/immigrant manifesto or target.  Cheers!

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-03/what-we-know-about-patrick-crusius-el-paso-rampage

You're right on the El Paso shooter. But the Dayton shooter (according to Washington Post) was a registered Democrat.

It's zero hedge so take it at face value. But I have found them to be about as accurate as many other sources.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-05/dayton-shooter-was-pro-satan-leftist-who-supported-warren-sanders-antifa-and
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Parsad on August 05, 2019, 01:13:53 PM
I canít believe that the US consumer hasnít yet clued in and realized that every time Trump imposes a tariff, the price of consumer goods goes up or corporate profits go down. Perhaps it is because the full effect hasnít trickled down yet but wonít this eventually cause inflation? Do people not realize that this is a sneaky way of raising taxes?

Trump did not impose tariffs. The GOP did.

The NRA does not have elected officials. The GOP does.

It is foolish to blame recent massacres on the NRA or lobbyists.  It's the GOP.  These are GOP enabled massacres, just like these are GOP enabled tariffs. 

Call it for what it is.
They were both Democrats just saying (shootings have been generally evenly distributed with parties). And speaking specifically about Dayton it is unclear the intentions. So it's quite foolish to speculate. What we know (according to Washington Post) is there are no obvious tie to extremist groups. He also arrived with his sister and her boyfriend who were also victims (can't wrap my head around this).

I'm not an NRA member and I think they do utilize some "scare tactics" to gain members. But if you actually look at the cash they put up for lobbying they are a drop in the bucket compared to most other groups (big pharma).

How about we start discussing the real issue. Every single shooter has been on anti-depressants. Mass shootings have increased in correlation with gun laws. Stop putting band-aids on the issue and lets address the root. Even Neil Degrasse Tyson tweeted some common sense on the issue.

As someone who recently lived in Dayton and frequented that strip quite often it puts it in perspective. I had a friend who was down there that night (just down the street at the Dublin Pub) on a bachelor party (which I couldn't make). But this doesn't change my opinion on the cause of the issue. It's a mental health issue, a broken home issue. This is what happens when society begins to adopt a nihilistic view on life. These people sit in their dark corners of the internet and feed off each other.

__________________________________________

Back to the topic. What is a solution that doesn't involve tariffs to establish a more free trade global economy? I keep hearing consumers are getting fleeced but have prices actually gone up? The data doesn't seem to show any significant changed. Slight spike in March, but nothing spectacular.

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

Where did you get the information that they were both Democrats?  Certainly not liberal if they had a racist/immigrant manifesto or target.  Cheers!

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-03/what-we-know-about-patrick-crusius-el-paso-rampage

You're right on the El Paso shooter. But the Dayton shooter (according to Washington Post) was a registered Democrat.

It's zero hedge so take it at face value. But I have found them to be about as accurate as many other sources.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-05/dayton-shooter-was-pro-satan-leftist-who-supported-warren-sanders-antifa-and

The extremists in both parties should be banned. 

I'm also still 100% behind extremely strict Federal gun laws across all U.S. states.  All guns have to be registered, otherwise it is a felony...assault rifles and semi-automatic guns completely banned...20-30 day waiting period...mandatory trigger locks for all guns in storage...full detailed background checks not unlike what is required to get your NEXUS card...full amnesty for first year to turn in unregistered guns. 

I'm actually ok with free carry states believe it or not, as long as the they've passed all of the above, gun is holstered, and they carry their id and registration.  Cheers!
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Cardboard on August 05, 2019, 01:35:18 PM
Could we get back to topic?

This is about tarrifs and Trump stupid and failing approach. If you want to talk guns and mass shootings please start another thread.

Cardboard
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: LC on August 05, 2019, 01:45:29 PM
Quote
Did you see me applauding Trump? Do I ever defend Trump? Hardly ever.
Fair enough, my apologies for mischaracterizing you!

Quote
Could we get back to topic?
Carry on, I felt a owed Castanza an explanation as I lumped him in as a "trump apologist", so to speak.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Vish_ram on August 05, 2019, 01:51:50 PM
From the start, tRump had no leverage. He was holding our farmers hostage. Maybe there is some poetic justice as Trump supporting farmers are declaring bankruptcy big time.

The Chinese will starve themselves to death before surrendering on Trade. They also understand that no matter what deal is signed, US will renege. Their goal from day 1 was to delay and outlast "small hands" presidency.

The first mistake Golfer in chief made was to wage trade wars with multiple countries. He should have waged a global front against china.

The world economy is going to shrink further, US will enter a major recession bringing Biden to power. I guess all is well that ends well.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Spekulatius on August 05, 2019, 03:15:12 PM
From the start, tRump had no leverage. He was holding our farmers hostage. Maybe there is some poetic justice as Trump supporting farmers are declaring bankruptcy big time.

The Chinese will starve themselves to death before surrendering on Trade. They also understand that no matter what deal is signed, US will renege. Their goal from day 1 was to delay and outlast "small hands" presidency.

The first mistake Golfer in chief made was to wage trade wars with multiple countries. He should have waged a global front against china.

The world economy is going to shrink further, US will enter a major recession bringing Biden to power. I guess all is well that ends well.

The big problem with wars is that itís easier to start one than to finish it. Modern wars tend to have losers on both sides. I think there might soon be a military angle to this whole thing,
Perhaps HK, or perhaps Chinese warships in the Persian gulf. Trump sort of invited the Chinese to patrol the waters. I feel both sides make moves that they donít like to do, but feel like they have to. In German, we call this Zugzwang.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Gregmal on August 05, 2019, 04:05:12 PM
On one end, China is outright stupid. After what, years of playing dumb and lying about "we dont know anything about this currency manipulator accusation" nonsense, they blatantly do something like this in a petty fit of rage? Dumbasses. They've blatantly outed themselves in such an egregious way, they've joined Trump in the "our word means nothing" category. Up until now I had viewed their actions as trying to take the high road and just make Trump look unreasonable. Not anymore.

At the same time, who are we, the US, to complain about currency manipulation? After all the shit the Fed has done to play with markets and rates, often for very little reason at all..

Nevertheless, I view it as a win/win. Stocks get cheaper and I get better prices to invest, and over the longer haul the cost of this will somewhat translate to Americans, but generally the people who already overpay for everything and dont seem to care. Only difference is they'll be overpaying for an American made product that some hardworking individual reaps the benefits of when purchased.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: cwericb on August 05, 2019, 04:09:31 PM
How many trade deals has Trump successfully completed to date? How many agreements has he ripped up?

There is not a lot of incentive to sign a deal with a leader who rips up agreements at will and lies to other world leaders (and everyone else, for that matter).
 
I mean really, what leader would be particularly anxious to risk a deal with with a country that has lost much of its credibility and could renege on a deal and make you look like a fool in front of your own people?

I don't think that the average person in the US understands how unpopular their leader & country has become in other parts of the world and underestimate just how many people Trump has alienated within US allied countries.

World leaders can only hold their nose for so long.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Viking on August 05, 2019, 05:24:31 PM
I wonder if we are not seeing the beginning of the end for Trump. There are consequences to how he conducts himself and his presidency and perhaps these are just starting to come home to roost. It is one thing to pick on Mexico, Canada, South Korea etc... they canít fight back. China can fight back and in ways that will hurt the US. Perhaps he has met his match.

Sentiment in the US is key: business and consumer. If this turns negative and a recession in the US follows, Trump is in trouble.

Unless he starts a war (the Persian Gulf is looking more and more unstable, if that is possible). Rally around the flag may trump a deteriorating economy. I do expect Trump will do whatever he needs to do to get reelected and he has lots of unconventional tools at his disposal. (If we have learned anything from the past 3 years.) Letís hope the Republicans in the Senate have their big boy pants on :-)
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: no_free_lunch on August 05, 2019, 06:40:56 PM
If he can make china devalue their currency it seems like a win. He is kind of making china screw itself and as a Canadian I'm not sure I have a lot of sympathy.  People get so hung up on stock prices they are missing the forest. China has a long history of currency manipulation, industrial espionage, trade restrictions and nobody has ever done anything about it. Trump is acting. This is what it looks like.

As far as the election, what voter is he going to lose?  Maybe if this devolves into full bore depression people switch but I don't see it as likely.  He is going to be able to point to new plant openings and jobs for the blue collar American.  He is going after the swing votes and that makes sense.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Parsad on August 05, 2019, 07:00:52 PM
I wonder if we are not seeing the beginning of the end for Trump. There are consequences to how he conducts himself and his presidency and perhaps these are just starting to come home to roost. It is one thing to pick on Mexico, Canada, South Korea etc... they canít fight back. China can fight back and in ways that will hurt the US. Perhaps he has met his match.

Sentiment in the US is key: business and consumer. If this turns negative and a recession in the US follows, Trump is in trouble.

Unless he starts a war (the Persian Gulf is looking more and more unstable, if that is possible). Rally around the flag may trump a deteriorating economy. I do expect Trump will do whatever he needs to do to get reelected and he has lots of unconventional tools at his disposal. (If we have learned anything from the past 3 years.) Letís hope the Republicans in the Senate have their big boy pants on :-)

China has far more to lose than the U.S.  I'm not a fan of tariffs, but I have to admit, China has been taking advantage of the rest of the world for nearly two decades now...and the transfer of wealth in the last decade was unprecedented! 

Everyone kept talking about the problem, but no one wanted to deal with it.  If we couldn't see the obvious, let's continue to ignore it...maybe things will work out in the end.  And I agree, fighting China might cost him 2020, because his own party members and the public at large, are going to get pissed off when their own pocket books start to get hurt a bit as well...but he is doing the right thing, unfortunately with little tact or thought.

China also cannot afford a long-term trade war...they are deeply in debt, dealing with a real estate bubble that was never allowed to pop, hold too much in U.S. treasuries to get into a currency trade war with the U.S. without hurting their own balance sheet, and they are fighting a battle on the political front in Hong Kong.  China's main concern over the last decade was to keep the populace happy as they piled on debt and the economy slowed...well China's economy is going to slow even more and their trade surplus is dropping.

It hurts now, but what Trump is doing is better for the U.S. long-term.  He just didn't have to go at it with a jackhammer...a simple hammer would have been fine.  Cheers!
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Cigarbutt on August 05, 2019, 07:34:10 PM
What's the point of lowering the trade deficit with China if the second-order consequences (trade diversion effect and tariff effect on global trade) imply a higher trade deficit overall or am I missing third-order consequences?
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/hot-charts-190801.pdf
 
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Parsad on August 05, 2019, 11:21:18 PM
What's the point of lowering the trade deficit with China if the second-order consequences (trade diversion effect and tariff effect on global trade) imply a higher trade deficit overall or am I missing third-order consequences?
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/hot-charts-190801.pdf

The transfer of wealth gives more economic power...more economic power means more military power...more economic and military power, means more influence over regions, partners and territories.  It's ok if Canada, Mexico, Japan and Europe have large trade surpluses against the U.S., as their sphere of influence and overall goals are in alignment.  It's not a good thing if China or Russia start to accumulate such wealth or power, because it means influence throughout Asia or Eastern Europe...often not in the U.S.' interest.  So the overall trade deficit can increase, while the net benefit to the U.S. is better as well.  Cheers! 
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Cigarbutt on August 06, 2019, 04:42:43 AM
What's the point of lowering the trade deficit with China if the second-order consequences (trade diversion effect and tariff effect on global trade) imply a higher trade deficit overall or am I missing third-order consequences?
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/hot-charts-190801.pdf
The transfer of wealth gives more economic power...more economic power means more military power...more economic and military power, means more influence over regions, partners and territories.  It's ok if Canada, Mexico, Japan and Europe have large trade surpluses against the U.S., as their sphere of influence and overall goals are in alignment.  It's not a good thing if China or Russia start to accumulate such wealth or power, because it means influence throughout Asia or Eastern Europe...often not in the U.S.' interest.  So the overall trade deficit can increase, while the net benefit to the U.S. is better as well.  Cheers!
Interesting perspective showing how difficult it will be to hold the #1 spot with residual wage, input costs and standards of living differential AND contestants who use a different 'model' and who think that their model is superior.
Counter-arguments include that 1-a good way to maintain peace is to maintain commerce and 2-trade diversion may not go to neighbors who think like you:
https://www.nomuraconnects.com/focused-thinking-posts/us-china-trade-diversion-who-benefits/

When trying to understand the decline of Britain in the late 19th century, at a time when the Empire was providing the international currency, there is a lot of work that focuses on external factors. There is also some uncomfortable discussion about internal factors.
FWIW, I happen to think that a large part of the trade deficit is manufactured in the US. We have met the enemy and he isÖ
Cheers!
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Spekulatius on August 12, 2019, 03:46:04 PM
What's the point of lowering the trade deficit with China if the second-order consequences (trade diversion effect and tariff effect on global trade) imply a higher trade deficit overall or am I missing third-order consequences?
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/hot-charts-190801.pdf

The transfer of wealth gives more economic power...more economic power means more military power...more economic and military power, means more influence over regions, partners and territories.  It's ok if Canada, Mexico, Japan and Europe have large trade surpluses against the U.S., as their sphere of influence and overall goals are in alignment.  It's not a good thing if China or Russia start to accumulate such wealth or power, because it means influence throughout Asia or Eastern Europe...often not in the U.S.' interest.  So the overall trade deficit can increase, while the net benefit to the U.S. is better as well.  Cheers!

Which way did the transfer of wealth go ? - serious question! I think it went from the Chinese grunts to the Chinese elite and stockholders of multinational companies benefiting from trade.
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Parsad on August 12, 2019, 05:50:56 PM
What's the point of lowering the trade deficit with China if the second-order consequences (trade diversion effect and tariff effect on global trade) imply a higher trade deficit overall or am I missing third-order consequences?
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/hot-charts-190801.pdf

The transfer of wealth gives more economic power...more economic power means more military power...more economic and military power, means more influence over regions, partners and territories.  It's ok if Canada, Mexico, Japan and Europe have large trade surpluses against the U.S., as their sphere of influence and overall goals are in alignment.  It's not a good thing if China or Russia start to accumulate such wealth or power, because it means influence throughout Asia or Eastern Europe...often not in the U.S.' interest.  So the overall trade deficit can increase, while the net benefit to the U.S. is better as well.  Cheers!

Which way did the transfer of wealth go ? - serious question! I think it went from the Chinese grunts to the Chinese elite and stockholders of multinational companies benefiting from trade.

Partly true, but I would imagine the elites and grunts of U.S. manufacturing cities like Detroit would disagree with you.  I dislike Trump for alot of things, but he is bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.  Yes, there is going to be some pain due to tariffs (already seeing significant increases in U.S. grocery prices), but long-term he is correcting imbalances that were allowed to persist for far too long.  China didn't build FoxConn...the U.S. did!  Time to bring some of those jobs back.  Cheers!
Title: Re: The psycopath
Post by: Cardboard on August 13, 2019, 06:00:50 AM
LOL!

I am kind of shocked by your turn of heart Parsad. All of what Trump did was garbage from you for as long as I can remember.

Then once I say that I hate how he goes about trade negotiation then you say that it is necessary, we need manufacturing back??? So if I say red you say black?

If not what has changed? You now agree with your cousins around Seattle?

By the way, cheap manufacturing is not coming back. It is only moving from China to countries with cheaper labour: Honduras, Vietnam, etc.

Cardboard