Author Topic: There is no such thing as climate change...  (Read 2209 times)



rukawa

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Re: There is no such thing as climate change...
« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2017, 01:14:20 PM »
https://newrepublic.com/article/118655/theoretical-phyisicist-explains-why-science-not-about-certainty

"Restricting our vision of reality today to just the core content of science or the core content of the humanities is being blind to the complexity of reality, which we can grasp from a number of points of view. The two points of view can teach each other and, I believe, enlarge each other."

If pressed for time, here's a summary: An open mind can go a long way.

Its an excellent article. Let's go off-topic.

I would summarize it somewhat differently. He is basically saying that the problems of science are as much conceptual as they are about fitting theories to data. Science has become divorced from philosophy to such an extent that this conceptual questioning and understanding is dying and what's basically happening is a kind of curve fitting which doesn't really work that well. Steve Keen has made similar points about the problems that have happened when physicists entered economics and created econophysics:

http://www.academia.edu/8020587/Worrying_trends_in_econophysics

Essentially the physicists in econophysics ignore basic concepts in economics completely and create models aren't grounded in any way in an understanding of what actually happens in economies. They are just curve-fitting exercises. Its an awful way to do science.

To me this isn't surprising. I'm not a socialist but here I find myself agreeing with Alfie Kohn (God I really hate that fact) who writes about how rewards and competition narrow people's thinking. Incentives, competition and money in science our narrowing our approach to these problems. In a hugely detrimental way I'm afraid.

Cigarbutt

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Re: There is no such thing as climate change...
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2017, 06:02:58 AM »
ę Let's go off-topic. Ľ

OK.

Interesting link and did not know Alfie Kohn and his work.
Realize that a lot of "choices" that he describes are available in my environment (alternative schools etc).
Optimist but have doubts about spontaneous intrinsic motivation as most of us need a hand (albeit invisible sometimes).

Question: Is economics a science?
Iíve often felt that uncertainties about conceptual weaknesses and generalization issues of economic models are often concealed under the illusory precision of fancy equations.
Hereís a link that offers food for optimism:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2013/nov/06/is-economics-a-science-robert-shiller
BTW, thatís why I think/hope that we will get through the coming energy transition.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2017, 06:37:30 AM by Cigarbutt »

rukawa

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Re: There is no such thing as climate change...
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2017, 09:52:10 AM »
To get back on-topic. I think there might be a better way for us to settle this debate on AGW. Instead of arguing about what the science says...who is right etc, lets do the following:

Tell me what evidence you would need for your beliefs to change

I'll start. I've tried to think of something simple, measurable that would be an un-mistakeable sign that something very unusual was happening, humans were responsible and the effects were dangerous. Right now I already believe C02 warms the Earth and I believe humans are responsible but I don't believe its dangerous.

I don't consider sea level rises dangerous unless the exceed 20mm a year (2m a century). For context, after the last ice age sea levels increases 120 meters over 13000 years or 1m a century on average. Actually I'm not even sure that is dangerous but definitely anything below that wouldn't be cause for concern. The current rate is 4mm a year.

For temperature I would probably need something in the order of greater than 7 degrees of global increase or a rate for 20 years that would imply that increase over 100 years.

Cigarbutt

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Re: There is no such thing as climate change...
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2017, 03:50:31 PM »
"Tell me what evidence you would need for your beliefs to change".

Loaded question with "beliefs" used as an end-point.
Don't have the knowledge base to factually continue this conversation.

But, in terms of uncertain events that could have a major significance, here's a quote from somebody you called brilliant in another thread:

"By "uncertain" knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty; nor is the prospect of a Victorybond being drawn. Or, again, the expectation of life is only slightly uncertain. Even the weather is only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the obsolescence of a new invention, or the position of private wealth owners in the social system in 1970. About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know. Nevertheless, the necessity for action and for decision compels us as practical men to do our best to overlook this awkward fact and to behave exactly as we should if we had behind us a good Benthamite calculation of a series of prospective advantages and disadvantages, each multiplied by its appropriate probability, waiting to be summed."
(my bold)

I know this is a subjective (or a degrees-of-belief 8)) statistical approach.
You don't have to agree and, for more consensus on the public side, it may take a while before probabilities refine enough.
The race is on.

« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 03:52:49 PM by Cigarbutt »

Cigarbutt

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Re: There is no such thing as climate change...
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2017, 06:38:31 AM »
Here's a link which provides data suggesting that a "climate change" stance should not be necessarily be thought as an equivalent to capitalism demise.

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-crisis-capitalism/