Author Topic: Trump Derangement Syndrome  (Read 27092 times)

cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #120 on: March 14, 2018, 08:10:52 PM »
Hey that's fine, we can end the discussion. It's OK by me to agree to disagree. And thanks for the link but I'm not trying to learn tools of persuasion.

As a self-appointed T.A. in Prof. Munger's psychology course, I add you to the list of flunkards among the board members.  Sad!  I can assure you that you don't know what you're missing out on.  Among other things, you would have been more likely to avoid the following remarkable hallucination:

Quote
Outside of mathematics and the physical sciences, you'll probably find out over the years and decades that it is futile, and rarely works in issues of real life, such as politics.
I'm a mathematician in "real life" and I think history would show that math and science are just as worthwhile as any other endeavor. As Cardboard mentioned above, I don't believe there is anything to lose from performing scientific analysis. And finally, that came off as a condescending thing of you to say.

I concur with your harsh criticism of something I never said or implied.  (But I thank you for providing another unwitting example appropriate for this TDS thread:  you guys just can't help yourselves!)  Einstein must be condescending, too ("As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality"), if you'll permit me to extend his comments beyond what he was talking about in geometry.

Isn't this what Kahneman describes with fast and slow thinking?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksopQLMQsq8
Tell me about your assumptions and reasoning process so we can share (and compare). :)

Studying Kahneman and Tversky is essential.  It's a great start.


LC

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #121 on: March 14, 2018, 10:02:09 PM »
Haha, well I can take the shade you're throwing, but I will still insist: a logical, reasoned analysis is the most objective way to determine the truth of a situation. If you would like to take a roundabout approach, that's fine but it will provide less assurance in your conclusions.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #122 on: March 14, 2018, 10:09:17 PM »
Looks like we're two English-speaking Americans divided by a common language.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2018, 10:11:41 PM by cobafdek »

cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #123 on: March 16, 2018, 03:29:41 PM »
Going into the weekend, let's entertain ourselves by triggering some board members:

"[Steve] Jobs, who primarily studied humanities not engineering, said he came to realise ‘that an intuitive understanding and consciousness was more significant than abstract thinking and intellectual logical analysis.’"

Read these and consider if the subject is Trump or Jobs:

‘It was as if [his] brain circuits were missing a device that would modulate the extreme spikes of impulsive opinions that popped into his mind.’

‘He would assert something—be it a fact about world history or a recounting of who suggested an idea at a meeting—without even considering the truth.’

‘He was not a model boss or human being, tidily packaged for emulation. [He] could drive those around him to fury and despair.’

‘The key question is why [he] can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people.’

https://spectator-usa.com/2018/03/donald-trump-is-the-steve-jobs-of-politics/

LC

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #124 on: March 16, 2018, 06:16:50 PM »
Sure, let's play the anecdote game. I've got two good ones:

"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong"
–Richard P. Feynman

“My fingers are long and beautiful, as, it has been well documented, are various other parts of my body.”

-Donald Trump
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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Spekulatius

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #125 on: March 17, 2018, 05:33:50 AM »
Many people that shape history do so despite and maybe even because of serious deficiencies. Adolf Hitler was had serious deficiencies (warped sense of reality, deep hatred, probably depression, jobless bum) yet he was very efficient for many years until fact and the rest of the world caught up with him.

I think what set these history makers apart is that they harness powers they didn’t have the right outlet before they appeared at the scene (in case of Trump it is deep discontent of disenfranchised people mostly in rural areas and the heartland , in Hitlers case it was anger about the WW1 aftermath) that they can harness and embody and in some cases change the course of history for the better or the worse that nobody thought possible.

Note my analogy with Hitler is purely conceptual. I don’t want to imply that Trump is similar to Hitler.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #126 on: March 17, 2018, 09:15:47 AM »
cobafdek,

This discussion probably belongs elsewhere but your post got me thinking.

I do agree that President Trump has an unusual skillset.
The outcome of which remains open to debate.
And there may be investment implications.

Mr. Jobs was a business genius but he was also a nasty, cruel and self-focused bully. He used his reality distortion field abilities to achieve extraordinary accomplishments but the same strategy revealed deep intuitive character flaws that rendered him oblivious to inconvenient facts leading to tragic consequences (example: decision to delay timely and appropriate treatment for his cancer).
Facts are stubborn things.

I read your stuff and I wonder if you would like to read “Reason: The classic experience” by Professor Eric Voegelin. I can’t find my copy or a link but will continue to look for it (edition 1974). But I found some old notes:

-Reason does not correspond to an idea but more to “the process in reality in which concrete human beings, the ‘lovers of wisdom,’ the philosophers as they styled themselves, were engaged in an act of resistance against the social disorder of their age. From this act there emerged the nous as the cognitively luminous force that inspired the philosophers to resist and, at the same time, enabled them to recognize the phenomena of disorder in the light of a humanity ordered by the nous. Thus, reason in the noetic sense was discovered as both the force and the criterion of order”.

(In English: reason is not a treasure to be stored away.)

-When a man cannot define his true humanity within the confine of reason, this sets the foundation for distortion of reality and opens the door to confusion and chaos.

On the topic of reason vs intuition
I understand that Mr. Navarro recently said (March 7, 2018):
"This is the president’s vision. My function, really, as an economist is to try to provide the underlying analytics that confirm his intuition. And his intuition is always right in these matters."



Let’s not forget that this may be about short term political noise in the grand scheme of things and I think that US institutions can survive this.

I understand that Bill Gates recently met President Trump and some pundits suggested that he may want the job. Just like there are similarities between Mr. Jobs and Mr. Trump, there are parallels with Mr. Gates (rich, heads of large empires, etc) but the differences along the intuition/insight spectrum are striking.

Please enlighten me.

In the meantime, I'll go back to financial statements.

shalab

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #127 on: March 17, 2018, 10:04:04 AM »
Right on cigarbutt. I think some of the Trump policies will survive him - especially the reforms in these areas:

    - immigration reform
    - trade reform
    - tax reform (even if individual rates go up which I think they will, corporate rates likely won't go up)

cobafdek,

This discussion probably belongs elsewhere but your post got me thinking.

I do agree that President Trump has an unusual skillset.
The outcome of which remains open to debate.
And there may be investment implications.

Mr. Jobs was a business genius but he was also a nasty, cruel and self-focused bully. He used his reality distortion field abilities to achieve extraordinary accomplishments but the same strategy revealed deep intuitive character flaws that rendered him oblivious to inconvenient facts leading to tragic consequences (example: decision to delay timely and appropriate treatment for his cancer).
Facts are stubborn things.

I read your stuff and I wonder if you would like to read “Reason: The classic experience” by Professor Eric Voegelin. I can’t find my copy or a link but will continue to look for it (edition 1974). But I found some old notes:

-Reason does not correspond to an idea but more to “the process in reality in which concrete human beings, the ‘lovers of wisdom,’ the philosophers as they styled themselves, were engaged in an act of resistance against the social disorder of their age. From this act there emerged the nous as the cognitively luminous force that inspired the philosophers to resist and, at the same time, enabled them to recognize the phenomena of disorder in the light of a humanity ordered by the nous. Thus, reason in the noetic sense was discovered as both the force and the criterion of order”.

(In English: reason is not a treasure to be stored away.)

-When a man cannot define his true humanity within the confine of reason, this sets the foundation for distortion of reality and opens the door to confusion and chaos.

On the topic of reason vs intuition
I understand that Mr. Navarro recently said (March 7, 2018):
"This is the president’s vision. My function, really, as an economist is to try to provide the underlying analytics that confirm his intuition. And his intuition is always right in these matters."



Let’s not forget that this may be about short term political noise in the grand scheme of things and I think that US institutions can survive this.

I understand that Bill Gates recently met President Trump and some pundits suggested that he may want the job. Just like there are similarities between Mr. Jobs and Mr. Trump, there are parallels with Mr. Gates (rich, heads of large empires, etc) but the differences along the intuition/insight spectrum are striking.

Please enlighten me.

In the meantime, I'll go back to financial statements.

cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #128 on: March 17, 2018, 01:14:40 PM »
Many people that shape history do so despite and maybe even because of serious deficiencies. Adolf Hitler was had serious deficiencies (warped sense of reality, deep hatred, probably depression, jobless bum) yet he was very efficient for many years until fact and the rest of the world caught up with him.

I think what set these history makers apart is that they harness powers they didn’t have the right outlet before they appeared at the scene (in case of Trump it is deep discontent of disenfranchised people mostly in rural areas and the heartland , in Hitlers case it was anger about the WW1 aftermath) that they can harness and embody and in some cases change the course of history for the better or the worse that nobody thought possible.

Note my analogy with Hitler is purely conceptual. I don’t want to imply that Trump is similar to Hitler.

Nicely done, on several levels.

At face value, taking your words strictly speaking, you've avoided descending into TDS, and made a great point.  I failed to trigger you!

What's cool for us linguistic/cognitive science nerds is that you may have still achieved the purpose of the "Trump=Hitler" meme, whether or not you consciously intended to do so.  It's the power of negative suggestions, operating on a subconscious level.  When you negate something, our neural circuits first has to process and accept the suggestion "Trump=Hitler" before it reads your negation.  In that split second before processing the negative part, the subconscious may have already accepted the positive suggestion, if it was primed beforehand.  Sure, this is irrational, but it's powerful messaging, and it works on a crowd level.  It won't work on everybody, but it will work on enough.  Ask Congressman Steve Scalise.

And that's why I posted that article comparing Trump to Jobs.  My post was designed to counter that perennial Trump=Hitler belief, which, though it is much weaker than it was immediately post-election, will probably never completely die out. 

So remember this:  I am NOT saying Trump=SteveJobs!

cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #129 on: March 17, 2018, 02:05:06 PM »
. . . I wonder if you would like to read “Reason: The classic experience” by Professor Eric Voegelin. I can’t find my copy or a link but will continue to look for it (edition 1974). But I found some old notes:

-Reason does not correspond to an idea but more to “the process in reality in which concrete human beings, the ‘lovers of wisdom,’ the philosophers as they styled themselves, were engaged in an act of resistance against the social disorder of their age. From this act there emerged the nous as the cognitively luminous force that inspired the philosophers to resist and, at the same time, enabled them to recognize the phenomena of disorder in the light of a humanity ordered by the nous. Thus, reason in the noetic sense was discovered as both the force and the criterion of order”.

(In English: reason is not a treasure to be stored away.)

-When a man cannot define his true humanity within the confine of reason, this sets the foundation for distortion of reality and opens the door to confusion and chaos.

The last time I saw the name Eric Voegelin was reading National Review when Buckley was still alive as editor.  I haven't read the magazine regularly since.  Voegelin's stuff was on my reading pile that I never got to.  If I were still an undergraduate or graduate student, I might be interested in getting into the weeds of defining "reason" and "rationality."  I'm content to stay ignorant on the myriad details of the definitions, since there are only so many hours in the day.  Let me just say that, ideally, of course people should be reasonable and rational with the goal of getting at the truth of objective reality, however you strictly define those words.  Who could disagree with that?  I agree with all of LC's ideals of rationality and logic.  I don't think it's even possible for anybody to disagree with such ideals:  who actually says that one's own ideas are wrong or irrational?   The problem is that, outside of math and the physical sciences, at the end of any reasonable/rational debate, the opposing sides may get no further than "We agree to disagree," with each side unable to prove or convince the other that it is wrong and irrational.  We each think we're the rational one and the other isn't.

On the topic of reason vs intuition
I understand that Mr. Navarro recently said (March 7, 2018):
"This is the president’s vision. My function, really, as an economist is to try to provide the underlying analytics that confirm his intuition. And his intuition is always right in these matters."



Let’s not forget that this may be about short term political noise in the grand scheme of things and I think that US institutions can survive this.

I understand that Bill Gates recently met President Trump and some pundits suggested that he may want the job. Just like there are similarities between Mr. Jobs and Mr. Trump, there are parallels with Mr. Gates (rich, heads of large empires, etc) but the differences along the intuition/insight spectrum are striking.

Yeah, who knows what's up with the Trump and Gates meeting.  Maybe Trump can persuade Gates that an "America First" policy is not the bad thing he and Melinda are hallucinating it is.  "America First" is an ambiguous slogan, and everyone reads into it what they hope or fear.