Author Topic: Trump Derangement Syndrome  (Read 5851 times)

rkbabang

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2017, 05:23:49 AM »


Is this not the height of insanity? How many times has he tried doing something on healthcare only to have career politicians like John McCain purposely sabotage it? It's going to be the same thing with taxes. You are already seeing several Republicans refusing to do anything.

This dude's healthcare went up 80% because that's what this Obamacare scam does.

Wait Gregmal, you are implying Trump is a successful executive who can turn this country around if only he was not tripped-up or backstabbed by his own people?

That is kinda like Hitler saying that he could've conquered Russia if only his general were comptent.  Comon, we all know now with hindsight Hitler was in waaay over his head...... Kinda like the Trump huh? I am sure if he is alive at ninety he'll bitch like that.

"His own people"?   I'm not a fan of Trump, but you have to admit that he is on his own.  The Republican party machine hates him almost as much as the Democrats do.  He has no people.  Especially not in congress.


EliG

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #81 on: November 03, 2017, 08:04:24 PM »
The only results that count are MAGA and that the Forgotten Men and Women Are Forgotten No Longer.  Then most is forgiven. 

The Joint Committee on Taxation, distributional estimate of the GOP tax bill:

Estate tax repeal is NOT included in the estimate.



Big Daddy is taking care of the forgotten MAGA people. They are getting tired of winning.

Jurgis

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #82 on: November 03, 2017, 08:12:12 PM »
The only results that count are MAGA and that the Forgotten Men and Women Are Forgotten No Longer.  Then most is forgiven. 

The Joint Committee on Taxation, distributional estimate of the GOP tax bill:

Estate tax repeal is NOT included in the estimate.



Big Daddy is taking care of the forgotten MAGA people. They are getting tired of winning.


rb

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #83 on: November 03, 2017, 10:10:03 PM »
That chart is almost meaningless without the estate tax. The estate tax is 200B compared to the whole bill that blows a 1.5T hole (very fiscally responsible btw) so it's a big part of it. Once you factor that in it'll be way more skewed. Forgotten people rejoice. You're paying so that multimillionaire elites can have more money. Job well done.

cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #84 on: November 04, 2017, 08:39:30 AM »
Case #4:

Triggered.  And doubling down.  Thanks for the additional example.

Also, confirmation bias working overtime.  Scott Adams?  I was channeling Rory Sutherland, and, I admit, badly.

More nothing. Zero substance, just rhetorical tricks ("if I act like I've won, some people will believe I'm smart and I've won" and "if I throw around words like triggered and cognitive bias and cognitive dissonance, surely people will read into it that I'm saying something clever").

Kind of like a con artist. Seems familiar these days...

+1!  Cheers!

Smiley Fratboy Parsad and Hairtrigger Liberty failing Prof. Munger's psychology classes.  Insane!  Sad!

Investor20

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #85 on: November 05, 2017, 05:43:54 PM »

AUG 2016 (roughly 2-3 weeks later): Obama receives intelligence that Putin directly ordered and was involved in the cyberwarfare on the US
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/obama-putin-election-hacking/?utm_term=.bcab38c4146d
 
Stalin apparently said, Show me the man and I will show you the crime.  The gist of this is, police is supposed to investigate a crime, not a person.  But here we are investigating Trump, but the crime, the hacking, FBI never looked at the server.  FBI/DNC didn't do anything about the hacking even after they knew about it for an year.

George Papadopoulos' guilty plea was for lying to the FBI. One of the lies was about "dirt", which is known to be DNC emails. Importantly, GP knew of this dirt before joining the campaign and before it was publicly announced.

Yes  Papadopoulos plea was for lying to FBI.  Not for collusion. Neither are activities by Manafort are anything to do with Trump.  These charges are actually exculpatory as explained in below article, because SC is accepting that the Papadopoulos or Manafort actions have nothing to do with collusion.

In addition if you go thru the responses by higher level Trump campaign, they were not encouraging Papadopoulos. The details are in below article written by former NY public prosecutor Andrew McCarthy
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453264/donald-trump-george-papadopoulos-indictment-exculpatory-trump

We can agree to disagree.  But I want police to pursue crimes, not people.  Sherlock Holmes solves a crime.  He does not investigate if a person is good or bad person.

Harvard law professor Dershowitz says:
“Manafort now is the first domino, and what Mueller wants to do is see him as the first domino, the second domino, the third domino, ultimately trying to get to the big domino, which is President Trump,” Dershowitz said on "Fox & Friends."

If Manafort has nothing to offer to assist Mueller’s larger investigation, then “he’s going to twist in the wind,” Dershowitz said.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357794-dershowitz-mueller-will-pressure-manafort-to-squeal-on-trump

I am strongly opposed to these tactics of arresting someone hoping they will give something about someone else & arresting that person hoping they will give something about some one else.....I want police to investigate crimes, not arrest someone to get someone else.

Schwab711

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #86 on: November 06, 2017, 05:02:46 AM »

AUG 2016 (roughly 2-3 weeks later): Obama receives intelligence that Putin directly ordered and was involved in the cyberwarfare on the US
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/obama-putin-election-hacking/?utm_term=.bcab38c4146d
 
Stalin apparently said, Show me the man and I will show you the crime.  The gist of this is, police is supposed to investigate a crime, not a person.  But here we are investigating Trump, but the crime, the hacking, FBI never looked at the server.  FBI/DNC didn't do anything about the hacking even after they knew about it for an year.

George Papadopoulos' guilty plea was for lying to the FBI. One of the lies was about "dirt", which is known to be DNC emails. Importantly, GP knew of this dirt before joining the campaign and before it was publicly announced.

Yes  Papadopoulos plea was for lying to FBI.  Not for collusion. Neither are activities by Manafort are anything to do with Trump.  These charges are actually exculpatory as explained in below article, because SC is accepting that the Papadopoulos or Manafort actions have nothing to do with collusion.

In addition if you go thru the responses by higher level Trump campaign, they were not encouraging Papadopoulos. The details are in below article written by former NY public prosecutor Andrew McCarthy
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453264/donald-trump-george-papadopoulos-indictment-exculpatory-trump

We can agree to disagree.  But I want police to pursue crimes, not people.  Sherlock Holmes solves a crime.  He does not investigate if a person is good or bad person.

Harvard law professor Dershowitz says:
“Manafort now is the first domino, and what Mueller wants to do is see him as the first domino, the second domino, the third domino, ultimately trying to get to the big domino, which is President Trump,” Dershowitz said on "Fox & Friends."

If Manafort has nothing to offer to assist Mueller’s larger investigation, then “he’s going to twist in the wind,” Dershowitz said.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357794-dershowitz-mueller-will-pressure-manafort-to-squeal-on-trump

I am strongly opposed to these tactics of arresting someone hoping they will give something about someone else & arresting that person hoping they will give something about some one else.....I want police to investigate crimes, not arrest someone to get someone else.

What do you think collusion is? Seems like there has been a ton of "collusion" to me (secret or illegal conspiracy). It may not have been proven illegal yet, but Trump's team certainly operated a secret conspiracy.

No one is going to get charged for "collusion". It's a non-legal description of actions, from what I've read. By "collusion", folks are referring to alleged corruption, money laundering, conspiracy, espionage, FARA violations, and such. I'm not a lawyer or expert in this stuff but that's my understanding. The reason I mention the "dirt" is the DNC emails have been a continual part of "collusion" allegations.

In general, the collusion theory is based on the broad allegations that Trump and/or his campaign team (and/or other associates) accepted stolen material from and negotiated as an illegal representative of the US with Russia to carry out any illegal action (definition above, basically). I'm sure there's other allegations that I'm forgetting but this broadly summarizes the point of Mueller's broad scope of investigation (granted by Trump appointee). It's purposefully broad because IC has heavily hinted that this was a multi-year, premeditated operation (with a foreign intel arm, which means it's likely we are all going to learn a lot of spy jargon in the next 12 months). WSJ story just came out saying this goes back to at least 2015. Trump's Twitter suggests it could go back even earlier. Prior financial deals may be related to 2016 as a result (e.g. Manafort and soon to be others). Russia-Ukraine relations from 2005-present are certainly noteworthy with respect to present allegations.

If the first 2 indictments and guilty plea mean Trump is innocent then fantastic in my book. However, given the frequency of lying by all involved and obstruction-like actions of Trump, I think we should determine that with certainty.

It seems like crimes are being pursued. This exact legal tactic is how high level drug dealers and mob bosses are convicted. Similarly, the US passed the RICO act to prevent folks from getting away with crimes they committed, but for various reasons are hard to probe individually (think murder in the mob).

Mueller can only indict criminals. Much like my other posts (and what Dersh) has said, the burden of proof for Mueller is going to be much higher than for normal politicans, which is higher than for normal people. The point of all of this is to restore confidence.

Dersh is speculating, like left-wing outlets. Nothing says Trump is the target. I still believe that until there is reason to believe otherwise. Arresting Manafort, Flynn, and many underlings goes a long way to improve confidence. As long as the investigation is rigorous and unbiased, I'll support any result.

I do like Andrew McCarthy and I read this article before. I don't agree with him here but time will ultimately tell. As to the speed of the case: most mafia-related investigations take 3+ years (from what I've read). Mueller's been working just less than 6 months. We'll see I guess.

Only thing I'll add. GP's plea transcript stated that record destruction charge was dropped for cooperation and either the transcript or plea deal mentioned that further charges may be brought, even with full cooperation. Given recent analysis of Greek news from May 2016 and 2 previously undisclosed Trump campaign national security team meetings, I don't think we've heard the last of GP. I don't want to speculate in this thread but it seems worthwhile to mention since they were discovered after McCarthy's article.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia

http://billmoyers.com/story/trump-russia-timeline/

Investor20

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #87 on: November 07, 2017, 02:36:20 AM »

AUG 2016 (roughly 2-3 weeks later): Obama receives intelligence that Putin directly ordered and was involved in the cyberwarfare on the US
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/obama-putin-election-hacking/?utm_term=.bcab38c4146d
 
Stalin apparently said, Show me the man and I will show you the crime.  The gist of this is, police is supposed to investigate a crime, not a person.  But here we are investigating Trump, but the crime, the hacking, FBI never looked at the server.  FBI/DNC didn't do anything about the hacking even after they knew about it for an year.

George Papadopoulos' guilty plea was for lying to the FBI. One of the lies was about "dirt", which is known to be DNC emails. Importantly, GP knew of this dirt before joining the campaign and before it was publicly announced.

Yes  Papadopoulos plea was for lying to FBI.  Not for collusion. Neither are activities by Manafort are anything to do with Trump.  These charges are actually exculpatory as explained in below article, because SC is accepting that the Papadopoulos or Manafort actions have nothing to do with collusion.

In addition if you go thru the responses by higher level Trump campaign, they were not encouraging Papadopoulos. The details are in below article written by former NY public prosecutor Andrew McCarthy
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453264/donald-trump-george-papadopoulos-indictment-exculpatory-trump

We can agree to disagree.  But I want police to pursue crimes, not people.  Sherlock Holmes solves a crime.  He does not investigate if a person is good or bad person.

Harvard law professor Dershowitz says:
“Manafort now is the first domino, and what Mueller wants to do is see him as the first domino, the second domino, the third domino, ultimately trying to get to the big domino, which is President Trump,” Dershowitz said on "Fox & Friends."

If Manafort has nothing to offer to assist Mueller’s larger investigation, then “he’s going to twist in the wind,” Dershowitz said.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/357794-dershowitz-mueller-will-pressure-manafort-to-squeal-on-trump

I am strongly opposed to these tactics of arresting someone hoping they will give something about someone else & arresting that person hoping they will give something about some one else.....I want police to investigate crimes, not arrest someone to get someone else.

What do you think collusion is? Seems like there has been a ton of "collusion" to me (secret or illegal conspiracy). It may not have been proven illegal yet, but Trump's team certainly operated a secret conspiracy.

No one is going to get charged for "collusion". It's a non-legal description of actions, from what I've read. By "collusion", folks are referring to alleged corruption, money laundering, conspiracy, espionage, FARA violations, and such. I'm not a lawyer or expert in this stuff but that's my understanding. The reason I mention the "dirt" is the DNC emails have been a continual part of "collusion" allegations.

In general, the collusion theory is based on the broad allegations that Trump and/or his campaign team (and/or other associates) accepted stolen material from and negotiated as an illegal representative of the US with Russia to carry out any illegal action (definition above, basically). I'm sure there's other allegations that I'm forgetting but this broadly summarizes the point of Mueller's broad scope of investigation (granted by Trump appointee). It's purposefully broad because IC has heavily hinted that this was a multi-year, premeditated operation (with a foreign intel arm, which means it's likely we are all going to learn a lot of spy jargon in the next 12 months). WSJ story just came out saying this goes back to at least 2015. Trump's Twitter suggests it could go back even earlier. Prior financial deals may be related to 2016 as a result (e.g. Manafort and soon to be others). Russia-Ukraine relations from 2005-present are certainly noteworthy with respect to present allegations.

If the first 2 indictments and guilty plea mean Trump is innocent then fantastic in my book. However, given the frequency of lying by all involved and obstruction-like actions of Trump, I think we should determine that with certainty.

It seems like crimes are being pursued. This exact legal tactic is how high level drug dealers and mob bosses are convicted. Similarly, the US passed the RICO act to prevent folks from getting away with crimes they committed, but for various reasons are hard to probe individually (think murder in the mob).

Mueller can only indict criminals. Much like my other posts (and what Dersh) has said, the burden of proof for Mueller is going to be much higher than for normal politicans, which is higher than for normal people. The point of all of this is to restore confidence.

Dersh is speculating, like left-wing outlets. Nothing says Trump is the target. I still believe that until there is reason to believe otherwise. Arresting Manafort, Flynn, and many underlings goes a long way to improve confidence. As long as the investigation is rigorous and unbiased, I'll support any result.

I do like Andrew McCarthy and I read this article before. I don't agree with him here but time will ultimately tell. As to the speed of the case: most mafia-related investigations take 3+ years (from what I've read). Mueller's been working just less than 6 months. We'll see I guess.

Only thing I'll add. GP's plea transcript stated that record destruction charge was dropped for cooperation and either the transcript or plea deal mentioned that further charges may be brought, even with full cooperation. Given recent analysis of Greek news from May 2016 and 2 previously undisclosed Trump campaign national security team meetings, I don't think we've heard the last of GP. I don't want to speculate in this thread but it seems worthwhile to mention since they were discovered after McCarthy's article.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia

http://billmoyers.com/story/trump-russia-timeline/

"Mueller's been working just less than 6 months."

But Feds have been working on this for 1.5 years. Its more than dozen agencies. They even wire tapped Manafort when he was campaign manager during a presidential election. Manafort was prior investigated in 2014:

"A secret order authorized by the court that handles the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) began after Manafort became the subject of an FBI investigation that began in 2014. It centered on work done by a group of Washington consulting firms for Ukraine's former ruling party, the sources told CNN.
The surveillance was discontinued at some point last year for lack of evidence, according to one of the sources."

"The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year.
Sources say the second warrant was part of the FBI's efforts to investigate ties between Trump campaign associates and suspected Russian operatives."
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/18/politics/paul-manafort-government-wiretapped-fisa-russians/index.html?CNNPolitics=Tw

"The surveillance was discontinued at some point last year for lack of evidence...". This is my concern.


« Last Edit: November 07, 2017, 03:52:58 AM by Investor20 »

Schwab711

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #88 on: November 07, 2017, 05:25:42 AM »
"Mueller's been working just less than 6 months."

But Feds have been working on this for 1.5 years. Its more than dozen agencies. They even wire tapped Manafort when he was campaign manager during a presidential election. Manafort was prior investigated in 2014:

Yikes, I forgot the FBI investigation started July 2016. From what we know, it is based on information obtained during FISA surveillance (which has been referred to as wiring taping prior to 2002 or so). I suppose the only difference between then and now, with respect to PM alone, is that Lynch/Carlin never prosecuted PM. Not trying to imply anything with that but it's worth pointing out. Why they didn't (and why we are now) is an important question that needs to be answered during all of this (maybe they weren't done, didn't have enough evidence, political, something in between, or something else altogether).

"A secret order authorized by the court that handles the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) began after Manafort became the subject of an FBI investigation that began in 2014. It centered on work done by a group of Washington consulting firms for Ukraine's former ruling party, the sources told CNN.
The surveillance was discontinued at some point last year for lack of evidence, according to one of the sources."

"The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year.
Sources say the second warrant was part of the FBI's efforts to investigate ties between Trump campaign associates and suspected Russian operatives."
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/18/politics/paul-manafort-government-wiretapped-fisa-russians/index.html?CNNPolitics=Tw

"The surveillance was discontinued at some point last year for lack of evidence...". This is my concern.

Yes, this is a concern I get. Thanks for bringing this up because this is where I can see people/parties/whatever having reservations. Best we can tell, this counter intel probe into Trump associates (which morphed into investigating Trump Campaign/Russia, led by Mueller) is based on FISA surveillance (which may be some combination of targeted/non-targeted and warranted/warrantless surveillance, for various reasons - I don't think we have clarification on this yet or I've missed it).

I don't know what this means for the Mueller probe. These are the other questions they will eventually have to answer in detail. Who did they surveil? Why? How long? What did they find? Why did the FBI open an investigation? Was it directly related to surveillance (or vice versa)? Why did it merit an expansion of the probe? And, of course, was Trump aware of any of this, how aware was he, for how long, and was this considered when he fired Comey?

I started posting because I didn't like that these threads were polarized and I thought I could add value. I think our discussion has made for a pretty good summary of where the probe is, how we got here, and why both sides have valid reasons to be yelling at each other. It was cool having someone lay out a different viewpoint that is also consistent and well-informed on the topic. Cool stuff. Ultimately, I'm with you on concerns. I really hope we get satisfactory answers to most or all of these basic questions/concerns.

Some interesting links I've saved since I've been following all this:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/director-national-intelligence-releases-2016-transparency-report   (gets in to *estimated* stats on most concerns mentioned by media)
http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/741586-nsa-fact-sheet-on-section-702-of-fisa-and.html
https://www.lawfareblog.com/topic/fisa-215-collection
https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/Government%20Surveillance%20Factsheet.pdf

cobafdek

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Re: Trump Derangement Syndrome
« Reply #89 on: November 21, 2017, 10:10:12 AM »
This Thanksgiving season, Katherine Graham in her grave can be grateful that son Donald unloaded this rag awhile ago.

Case #5:  http://www.newsweek.com/how-murderer-charles-manson-and-donald-trump-used-language-gain-followers-717399

The logic technicians on this board will see the basic fallacy of the undistributed middle, in the form of an enthymeme.

The students of rhetoric here will see a propaganda fail, a variant of the "Trump=Hitler" meme.  Sadly, many on this board used it last year.  You know who you are!

Here, Newsweek fails on two counts:  it can neither think logically, nor convince persuasively.  I've just filled out a 5150 on FakeNewsweek.

Time will tell whether this is one of the last gasps of the "Trump=Hitler" hysteria.  If this post fails to trigger anti-Trump board members to respond by doubling down, then the delusion may be dead.