Recent Posts

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You have to be careful of "buying low sell high" when you see negative news and stock declines. It can keep going on for a long time. The smart guys have been selling since June. I could guess that someone knows Maloni is such a whack job that he's willing to spread any rumors for free to get famous, so they just fed him the Collins rumor, which pumped the stock to 14, and then they started selling day after day since then.

Is every decline of this magnitude and duration attributable to big players trying to get out quietly? At what point can you tell that the trend has reversed? I can see this being plausible but not actionable; things could eventually turn around (we have seen declines like this in the past) and I don't see a way to tell in real time when it has happened.

If Maloni is perceived to be such a "whack job", why would his rumor, and apparently only his rumor, have been enough to propel FNMAS to $14 in the first place?

Variant perceptions. Maloni is perceived by me to be a whack job but that doesnít mean everyone thinks his is a whack job. Look at the day when he posted the Collins rumor and stock jumped. Volume was low that day. Not many believers.

I donít see a bottom yet. I base my decisions on the news flow posted here and my feeling of the chart. Iíll let you know when I think a bottom is in.
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unfortunately, mnuchin leaving is a real risk imo.   better for his reputation to leave now if his opinion ends up that trump listening to Navarro over him (and many others) will sink the ship.

Sure it is a risk, and if it happens it happens and Iíll move on from this trade. I think itíd be silly to sell now based on this rumor.
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Investment Ideas / Re: TRUP - Trupanion
« Last post by Jurgis on Today at 09:17:46 AM »
I think you underestimate how big a percentage of the population doesn't carry large savings and lives paycheck to paycheck for the most part.

If they live paycheck to paycheck, they should probably not have a pet.

OTOH, for majority of the big ticket vet items, the solution is not pet insurance, but rather putting the pet to sleep. Yeah, I know I'm gonna get hit by compassionate pet owners again, but $5K for your fluffy could save at least 10 children in Africa. Or 10 healthy just born fluffies that are being put down every day.
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General Discussion / Re: What are you buying today?
« Last post by benchmark on Today at 09:14:35 AM »
^ I passed on this because it is a cigarbutt ( albeit with a lot of life left) in a sense that it will be worth far less once the contract with MSG ( the sister co) is up. It rather deal with the foibles of MSG, as sports team valuations have  tail winds.

Dolan still controls both entities. He won't just let the contract run out and wipe out billions in value.

Just added more at 14.75.

Company has been plowing cash into debt pay down, now standing around $700M net of cash. You've got $200M FCF and even with sub decline a fairly decent chunk of it will continue to get offset by decrease in interest expenses.

6.5% decrease in subscriber is staggering

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Investment Ideas / Re: RYAAY - Ryanair
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 09:13:22 AM »
Looks interesting?

Yes, it looks interesting. I joined the cheap seats here with a starter position.
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Investment Ideas / Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Last post by KCLarkin on Today at 09:11:46 AM »
The risk-weights on securitized credit card receivables aren't really different from those held at the bank as they don't qualify for securitization under Basel III capital rules. So there isn't much capital relief from securitizing credit card receivables.

Thanks for the clarification.
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You have to be careful of "buying low sell high" when you see negative news and stock declines. It can keep going on for a long time. The smart guys have been selling since June. I could guess that someone knows Maloni is such a whack job that he's willing to spread any rumors for free to get famous, so they just fed him the Collins rumor, which pumped the stock to 14, and then they started selling day after day since then.

Is every decline of this magnitude and duration attributable to big players trying to get out quietly? At what point can you tell that the trend has reversed? I can see this being plausible but not actionable; things could eventually turn around (we have seen declines like this in the past) and I don't see a way to tell in real time when it has happened.

If Maloni is perceived to be such a "whack job", why would his rumor, and apparently only his rumor, have been enough to propel FNMAS to $14 in the first place?
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Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 09:08:08 AM »
I have a neighbor who bought a house with a Solarcity installation on his roof ( done before he bought the house), which is now leaking. He suspects the installation being the issue, since the roof is not that old. I donít know what comes out of this, and it may be a one off,  but also sounds like a pot. liability Tesla. I would be careful buying a house with solar cells on the roof.
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Investment Ideas / Re: QSR - Restaurant Brands International
« Last post by KCLarkin on Today at 09:02:34 AM »
I am skeptical though if they will put a dent in Chik-Fil-A though.

Given their size, relative to CFA and other fast food restaurants, they don't need to put a dent in CFA to get a nice bump in SSS. The question is whether the bump will be sustainable or if this is just a fad.

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Politics / Re: Greenland - anyone?
« Last post by LC on Today at 09:02:03 AM »
Quote
There is no respect for military might.
As the saying goes, the pen is mightier than the sword.
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