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Investment Ideas / Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 09:24:41 AM »
Pushing $1000

Or about $12k/share if you account for the stock splits around 1999...
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“The Other Guys In The Oil Market”

Snippet from BCA Commodity & Energy Strategy...

This week, we are reprising and updating “The Other Guys In The Oil Market” from our
sister service Energy Sector Strategy (NRG), because it so well captures the state of oil production outside the U.S. shales, Middle East OPEC and Russia. “The Other Guys” account for ~ half of global supply. Next week, we’ll publish a joint report with NRG analyzing today’s OPEC meeting.

The aptly named “Other Guys” account for ~ 42mm b/d of production, which they are
struggling to maintain at current levels, let alone increase. These producers supply nearly half of global production, and have been stuck in a pattern of slow decline for years despite high oil prices. Beginning in 2019, we expect production declines to accelerate. This will put enormous pressure on the three primary growth regions, which markets likely will start pricing in toward the end of next year

U.S. Onshore, Middle East OPEC (ME OPEC),
and Russia combine to produce ~43 MMb/d
of oil plus another ~11 MMb/d of other liquids
(NGLs, biofuels, refinery gains, etc.). Combined,
these producers increased crude production by
5 MMb/d plus another 1 MMb/d of other liquids
production over the past three years (2014-
2016), creating the oversupply that crashed
prices. We expect these producers to add another
1.60 MMb/d of oil plus 1.14 MMb/d of other
liquids by 2018 (over 2016 levels), dominated
by nearly 2.0 MMb/d of oil and NGLs from the
U.S. shales.

Oil production from the other 100+ global oil
producers also represents about ~42 MMb/d,
but on balance has been slowly eroding since
2010, failing to grow even when oil prices were
$100+/bbl. Despite some 2017 recovery from
Libya, we expect total production to continue to
fall in both 2017 and 2018.

The few recently expanding producers among the Other Guys are running out of growth. Canada, Brazil, North Sea and GOM account for ~13 MMb/d of oil production in 2016, adding ~1.5 MMb/d over the past three years (2014-2016). North Sea production is projected to resume declines starting in 2017; GOM will reach it peak production sometime in 2017 or 2018, then start to ebb; large new
Canadian oil sands projects will add ~310k b/d in 2017-2018, but scarce additions are scheduled beyond that; and Brazil’s once-lofty growth plans have slowed to a crawl in 2016-2018.

Global deepwater drilling activity and exploration spending have collapsed, lowering the reserve base, and undermining the stability of current production levels.

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Investment Ideas / Re: TSX:AIM - Aimia
« Last post by Uccmal on Today at 09:17:56 AM »
well, he could say the sky is falling and we're doomed, then call westjet or united and tell them that Aeroplan will have no issues paying for flights.  that'll work just fine.

Lol...
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Investment Ideas / Re: SRG - Seritage Growth Properties
« Last post by LongTermView on Today at 09:11:50 AM »
When trying to predict SRG's year, and the additional SNO lease revenue they will bring in, it's important to note that the CEO estimates they will see over $60 million in leases or SNO leases from early '17 to early '18. $500 million of capital investment and over 12% unlevered returns on capital.   This means that one year from now he expects us to meet  that $68 million hurdle (or gap) mentioned above.  Therefore, I think the company will be fine barring any major economic catastrophe or drastic changes in SRG's marketplace.
This is encouraging.

It is hard to reconcile this against what Mohnish Pabrai said in Barron's:
Quote
“If Sears doesn’t file until 2020, Seritage is fine,” he says. “It is possible they are fine if there is a late-2019 filing. Any filing before that means taking extraordinary measures.”

I wish Mohnish would have been more specific with the numbers and thoughts behind his timeline estimates.
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Investment Ideas / Re: SRG - Seritage Growth Properties
« Last post by BTShine on Today at 09:05:34 AM »
When trying to predict SRG's year, and the additional SNO lease revenue they will bring in, it's important to note that the CEO estimates they will see over $60 million in leases or SNO leases from early '17 to early '18. $500 million of capital investment and over 12% unlevered returns on capital.   This means that one year from now he expects us to meet  that $68 million hurdle (or gap) mentioned above.  Therefore, I think the company will be fine barring any major economic catastrophe or drastic changes in SRG's marketplace. 
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Investment Ideas / Re: BH - Biglari Holdings
« Last post by globalfinancepartners on Today at 08:50:48 AM »
NAIC filings for PSIC
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Investment Ideas / Re: TSX:AIM - Aimia
« Last post by misterkrusty on Today at 08:42:13 AM »
well, he could say the sky is falling and we're doomed, then call westjet or united and tell them that Aeroplan will have no issues paying for flights.  that'll work just fine.
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General Discussion / Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Last post by racemize on Today at 08:26:23 AM »
anyone know why Pabrai doesn't allow the letter out in public? He seems fine writing blog posts, doing interviews, speeches, and getting his name out there.

So that no one else copies his investments, I suppose. But wait, his investment m.o is to copy others, no?

The letters don't include current investments generally.  And again, it is illegal.  No need to speculate on other reasons.

Also, 13-Fs already exist.
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